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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #8,141
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:57pm Jun 12, 2008 9:57pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Took Profit and I am out again......
Does anybody have any idea where the market might go?
  • #8,142
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:59pm Jun 12, 2008 9:59pm
I think up...But its kinda overbought.

It broke below the US open.

Now it seems as like it might push back above 108.

Euro cannot hold it's highs and seems heavy.
  • #8,143
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:02pm Jun 12, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting pipmac
Does anybody have any idea where the market might go?
Right now it is at the threshold of turning and the die hards aren't letting go at the present....... Just be patient.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,144
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:12pm Jun 12, 2008 10:12pm
Tomorrow's announcement with the USD CPI will more and likely blow this open for the coming week and I would not be surprise if the dollar does some damage....... We will see.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,145
  • Edited 10:20pm Jun 12, 2008 10:18pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting Warren Forex
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippet:

Oh that smell. Can't you smell that smell?
I was just pinging with Mr. Practical and we had the following exchange. We share it with ye faithful in the spirit of community.
Mr. Practical: Yields are upticking. Fed Fund Futures are implying a rate hike in September.
Toddo: Yeesh, talk about a death knell. That has "foreign influence" written all over it.
Mr. Practical: Central banks may have given notice to Ben that if he doesn't raise rates, the dollar is toast. We should remind Minyans to read The Pin Prick. It's as relevant today as it was then. Instead of foreign central banks abandoning the auction, they're giving him fair warning.
There is no breathing room for the box Bernanke is in. Several Fed governors are in open revolt calling for higher rates, and others are openly questioning the Term Auction Facility (TAF), and Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). US consumers are getting smoked by rising prices, banks are getting smoked by falling margins, rising defaults, and the need to raise capital. Housing will be further smoked if Bernanke is forced to raise rates and the dollar may be further smoked if he does not.
Economic Checkmate


I have strong doubts the Fed is going to hike given that any hikes will add to the wreckage in housing. However, if the Fed does hike, it will be for one reason only: It was forced to by the markets. It sure won't be because of a strengthening economy.

.......................

Bruce
bruce!!! i wish i could understand that, you gotta teach me some fundamentals..

anyway, my interpretation is that something really BAD is happening to the usd but it hasn't been SHOWN yet in the charts.. so the PERCEPTION of everyone [lol.. as you might notice, i saw the video] is that nothing bad is happening. also, the fed is forced [by who?..] to take action of things they must not do and* it'll make thing worse and so on...

my question is that... [this what i hate of fundies but i make an effort to apply them], ¿will it really happen?, ¿when?, you know... all of those common questions

thanks for the article
... /$ -> LONG
  • #8,146
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:54pm Jun 12, 2008 10:54pm
GM all.

Here's my 15m chart of yesterdays action.......a great buy around midnight at the green arrow on the break of the 13 ema - and then supported by that ema all the way up to the 108 level.

Plenty of tight stop loss sells available as price was held at the 108 level - I took the first red arrow and went to bed with a tight stop and woke up to a closed out, profitable trade.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Now I'll wait for the action at the London Open - its difficult to see any entry right now....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jne 13 uj 15m 0545.gif Size: 17 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,147
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:17pm Jun 12, 2008 11:17pm
Quoting Islander
its difficult to see any entry right now....
You got that right........
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,148
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:31pm Jun 12, 2008 11:31pm
Quoting Islander
GM all.

Here's my 15m chart of yesterdays action.......a great buy around midnight at the green arrow on the break of the 13 ema - and then supported by that ema all the way up to the 108 level.

Plenty of tight stop loss sells available as price was held at the 108 level - I took the first red arrow and went to bed with a tight stop and woke up to a closed out, profitable trade.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Now I'll wait for the action at the London Open - its difficult to see any entry right now....
Nice break above the 13EMA

I see this going to 108.50 from here

Support at 107.85
  • #8,149
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:35pm Jun 12, 2008 11:35pm
support at the 13EMA (107.85) on the 15m TF.

I'm gonna try a buy there and see if the 13EMA can continue to support price
  • #8,150
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:37pm Jun 12, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting dove_alliance
You got that right........
Thanks - confirmation is always appreciated - as are explained alternatives
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,151
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:40pm Jun 12, 2008 11:40pm
Quoting pipmac
Nice break above the 13EMA

I see this going to 108.50 from here

Support at 107.85
Yes - I've seen it, but as I'm not yet seeing any confirming action elsewhere - gold, oil, the Dax etc - I'm waiting on the side lines - and its another Freaky Friday!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,152
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:41pm Jun 12, 2008 11:41pm
Quoting Islander
Yes - I've seen it, but as I'm not yet seeing any confirming action elsewhere - gold, oil, the Dax etc - I'm waiting on the side lines - and its another Freaky Friday!
What kinda confirmation are you looking for?

Is there anything specific that has to happen with gold, dax etc..???
  • #8,153
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:42am Jun 13, 2008 12:42am
Quoting pipmac
What kinda confirmation are you looking for?

Is there anything specific that has to happen with gold, dax etc..???
When there's no news IMO they need to be moving for the currencies to move - now nothing's moving - all flat, so I'll stay out rather than risk loosing pips - they're slippery things!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #8,154
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:48am Jun 13, 2008 12:48am
What does this means Tentative?

BOJ Press Conference and Month Report,,,

When this event will happend?????

Is there will be strong impact on yen and will go down?
  • #8,155
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:49am Jun 13, 2008 12:49am
Just keep buying on dips on this pair with a tight stop. No shorting unless you dare to do so. Don't expect it to fall like it did in March whatever those so-called fundamental traders or currency analysts say.You would miss thousands of pips that you could have gaind if you wanted to wait it to drop like freefall. I can't explain why this is, but it has just been happening in the market since March.
  • #8,156
  • Jun 13, 2008 12:59am Jun 13, 2008 12:59am
Quoting naminori
Just keep buying on dips on this pair with a tight stop. No shorting unless you dare to do so. Don't expect it to fall like it did in March whatever those so-called fundamental traders or currency analysts say.You would miss thousands of pips that you could have gaind if you wanted to wait it to drop like freefall. I can't explain why this is, but it has just been happening in the market since March.
People at the CBOT are 85% sure (if I remember well) the fed will hike as soon as next month...while this kind of hawkish feeling persist the dollar should keep going up with out any major retracement. IMHO we should start applying trend indicators instead of oscilators from now on.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #8,157
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:01am Jun 13, 2008 1:01am
Quoting naminori
Just keep buying on dips on this pair with a tight stop. No shorting unless you dare to do so. Don't expect it to fall like it did in March whatever those so-called fundamental traders or currency analysts say.You would miss thousands of pips that you could have gaind if you wanted to wait it to drop like freefall. I can't explain why this is, but it has just been happening in the market since March.
Yes. ONe way to do this is to draw the 13EMA on the 15m Time frame and buy everytime it dips to the EMA. But only duing the first 3-4 hours of a session.
  • #8,158
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:13am Jun 13, 2008 1:13am
Quoting naminori
Just keep buying on dips on this pair with a tight stop. No shorting unless you dare to do so. Don't expect it to fall like it did in March whatever those so-called fundamental traders or currency analysts say.You would miss thousands of pips that you could have gaind if you wanted to wait it to drop like freefall. I can't explain why this is, but it has just been happening in the market since March.
It's called a bull trap . Seriously, whilst the trend is clearly up for the time being, I will be surprised if this is not down a lot by the end of Autumn.
  • #8,159
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:21am Jun 13, 2008 1:21am
????

Quoting sheraz
What does this means Tentative?

BOJ Press Conference and Month Report,,,

When this event will happend?????

Is there will be strong impact on yen and will go down?
  • #8,160
  • Jun 13, 2008 1:43am Jun 13, 2008 1:43am
Quoting Spectator
It's called a bull trap . Seriously, whilst the trend is clearly up for the time being, I will be surprised if this is not down a lot by the end of Autumn.
Up-trend? But in what context? Whether or not the USD/JPY bullishness is a continuation of the larger term bull trend, or simply a retracement within a larger down trend is hard to tell.

When I read some of the predictions on the USD/JPY I tend to think of the role of Elliot wave theory. Remember, when everybody is claiming that the trend will continue and that one would be foolish not to jump onto the bandwagon, that's when it's usually already too late to join the party.
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