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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #8,121
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:21pm Jun 12, 2008 9:21pm
Quoting dwildes
Congrats! I had 17 PIPs staring me in the face, but I was greedy.
Now I'm waiting for the next round up
Always have a target either in your head or typed in before you enter a trade.
  • #8,122
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:22pm Jun 12, 2008 9:22pm
Quoting dwildes
Congrats! I had 17 PIPs staring me in the face, but I was greedy.
Now I'm waiting for the next round up
Know what you mean. Fear and greed, a trader's two worst enemies.

With the small amount of movement on the pairs during Asian trading hours, I figured I was doing well with +25 and didn't need to push my luck further. The Euro looks like it's gearing up to take another run at the 1.5490 level.
  • #8,123
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:22pm Jun 12, 2008 9:22pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Smiling - yea, greed will do that.
Drives me nuts because I know better and I could have snagged a lot more PIPs by now since my cash would be free. One of the emotions I gotta manage
  • #8,124
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:28pm Jun 12, 2008 9:28pm
Quoting thegunslinger
Know what you mean. Fear and greed, a trader's two worst enemies.

With the small amount of movement on the pairs during Asian trading hours, I figured I was doing well with +25 and didn't need to push my luck further. The Euro looks like it's gearing up to take another run at the 1.5490 level.
Yep - exactly what I should have been thinking instead of how much can I make. Oh well, I'm a lot better than I use to be - but still got work to do. *haha*

Hope so - run EU run!
  • #8,125
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:39pm Jun 12, 2008 9:39pm
Pinchapip don't get cought up in useless indicators. Indicators are used against you by the big boys. They know how you trade. Learn to spot what is really going on behind the market, and it is not those indicators that most use. Get away from those, and learn to read price action and the reason behind it.

In the long run indicators fail then folks go looking for the next latest best indicators till those fail. Do yourself a favor get rid of them.




Quoting pinchapip
Do you mind if I pick your brain a little and ask how one can use this indicator correctly? Guided by your posts from last year I started using it but without much success because I don't understand it...now that you are back here would you mind shedding some light on how you use it?

If you don't wanna share this kind of info I will surely understand.

Thanks a million.
  • #8,126
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:42pm Jun 12, 2008 9:42pm
Quoting steelhead
Pinchapip don't get cought up in useless indicators. Indicators are used against you by the big boys. They know how you trade. Learn to spot what is really going on behind the market, and it is not those indicators that most use. Get away from those, and learn to read price action and the reason behind it.

In the long run indicators fail then folks go looking for the next latest best indicators till those fail. Do yourself a favor get rid of them.
That's an interesting perspective - I've never really thought of it that way but it does make sense
  • #8,127
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:47pm Jun 12, 2008 9:47pm
Quoting steelhead
Pinchapip don't get cought up in useless indicators. Indicators are used against you by the big boys. They know how you trade. Learn to spot what is really going on behind the market, and it is not those indicators that most use. Get away from those, and learn to read price action and the reason behind it.

In the long run indicators fail then folks go looking for the next latest best indicators till those fail. Do yourself a favor get rid of them.
Quoting dwildes
That's an interesting perspective - I've never really thought of it that way but it does make sense
lol... that reminds me to trade the opposite of Jamie Saettele's dailyfx best trading ideas of the week
... /$ -> LONG
  • #8,128
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:55pm Jun 12, 2008 9:55pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Around 23:00 ET the yen will have it's "overnight call rate" and that will more and likely be the fuse to set it off.
Finally here - let's see if this pumps some life into the market!
  • #8,129
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:05pm Jun 12, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting steelhead
Pinchapip don't get cought up in useless indicators. Indicators are used against you by the big boys. They know how you trade. Learn to spot what is really going on behind the market, and it is not those indicators that most use. Get away from those, and learn to read price action and the reason behind it.

In the long run indicators fail then folks go looking for the next latest best indicators till those fail. Do yourself a favor get rid of them.
Thanks for the advice Steel !

I don't follow indicators blindly. I use them mostly for confirmation. And you are quite right about price action.

I saw a webinar once by a guy who used to write down orders from clients on the floor on wallstreet. He said that it was pretty easy to realise where support and resistance was by the size of the buy/sell stacks of orders on his desk. Then people started to ask how in the world they could have acces to that kind of info, without having the physical stacks sitting in front of them. He said "guys it is all in the charts, everytime I see a chart it's like being at my desk with all those stacks of orders to buy and sell." "I know exactly where the big stacks are" and he concluded that..."it is even easier using the charts". According to the experts the banks have access to exactly where those big orders are, we don.t... but again...we have the charts and I'm in the process of learning how to decipher charts well enough that I get to the point of "seeing" the orders...it may take a while but I trust I will get there
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #8,130
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:07pm Jun 12, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting pinchapip
Thanks for the advice Steel !

I don't follow indicators blindly. I use them mostly for confirmation. And you are quite right about price action.

I saw a webinar once by a guy who used to write down orders from clients on the floor on wallstreet. He said that it was pretty easy to realise where support and resistance was by the size of the buy/sell stacks of orders on his desk. Then people started to ask how in the world they could have acces to that kind of info, without having the physical stacks sitting in front of them. He said "guys it is all in the charts, everytime I see a chart it's like being at my desk with all those stacks of orders to buy and sell." "I know exactly where the big stacks are" and he concluded that..."it is even easier using the charts". According to the experts the banks have access to exactly where those big orders are, we don.t... but again...we have the charts and I'm in the process of learning how to decipher charts well enough that I get to the point of "seeing" the orders...it may take a while but I trust I will get there
I use the MB Traders platform that gives me Level2 quotes on the Forex. Now if I only knew how to read them properly - anyone have any good references on learning Level2 if it helps?
  • #8,131
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:09pm Jun 12, 2008 10:09pm
Here's a screenshot of the Level2 that I see for USD/JPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: level2.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #8,132
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:11pm Jun 12, 2008 10:11pm
The rate bs won't be the one that takes this thing down. What will take this thing down is sellers selling. Why do folks get so cought up in news that is manipulated.

Charts folks its all in the charts. A trend is a trend with or without news. If news comes out and takes the trade counter to the trend, most likely the trend will continue after the news.

Focus on Price action not indicators, news, and more bs indicators.





Quoting dwildes
Finally here - let's see if this pumps some life into the market!
  • #8,133
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:18pm Jun 12, 2008 10:18pm
now Dana you know i am scalping the fire out the dollar/yen using the beloved 2m chart....waiting for the pullback to the pivot 107.60 and wait and see from there...... i love the 11/2 pips fee with FXPRO...while using the accucharts...enjoy my friend...may the pips be with you...

Quoting dove_alliance
I don't believe anyone here is scalping and if the short is too soon then why you close your longs...... For the same reason I did and that is because the threshold is there.
  • #8,134
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:20pm Jun 12, 2008 10:20pm
Quoting dwildes
I use the MB Traders platform that gives me Level2 quotes on the Forex. Now if I only knew how to read them properly - anyone have any good references on learning Level2 if it helps?
Those "level2" dwildes, are not the same as the one the big guys have access to ...believe me !!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #8,135
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:21pm Jun 12, 2008 10:21pm
Pinchapip you are on the right track my friend. Learn how to spot where the big boys are getting active. they leave clues everywhere. Don't follow the herd cause the herd is going to lose the war. They might win battles but the war they will lose. Study the charts look for those areas where the market is most likely to reverse. Get in on those and hold your profits. Most people fail cause their risk management is so screwed up.


Number one rule in trading let profits ride cut losses short. You should always have atleast a 2/1 ratio.

It's all there for us to see, some just choose to ignore the signs





Quoting pinchapip
Thanks for the advice Steel !

I don't follow indicators blindly. I use them mostly for confirmation. And you are quite right about price action.

I saw a webinar once by a guy who used to write down orders from clients on the floor on wallstreet. He said that it was pretty easy to realise where support and resistance was by the size of the buy/sell stacks of orders on his desk. Then people started to ask how in the world they could have acces to that kind of info, without having the physical stacks sitting in front of them. He said "guys it is all in the charts, everytime I see a chart it's like being at my desk with all those stacks of orders to buy and sell." "I know exactly where the big stacks are" and he concluded that..."it is even easier using the charts". According to the experts the banks have access to exactly where those big orders are, we don.t... but again...we have the charts and I'm in the process of learning how to decipher charts well enough that I get to the point of "seeing" the orders...it may take a while but I trust I will get there
  • #8,136
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:23pm Jun 12, 2008 10:23pm
Quoting pinchapip
Those "level2" dwildes, are not the same as the one the big guys have access to ...believe me !!!
Awwwww
  • #8,137
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:24pm Jun 12, 2008 10:24pm
Quoting Mrpipmaster
now Dana you know i am scalping the fire out the dollar/yen using the beloved 2m chart....waiting for the pullback to the pivot 107.60 and wait and see from there...... i love the 11/2 pips fee with FXPRO...while using the accucharts...enjoy my friend...may the pips be with you...
Smiling - that was before you came on................
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,138
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:25pm Jun 12, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting steelhead
Pinchapip you are on the right track my friend. Learn how to spot where the big boys are getting active. they leave clues everywhere. Don't follow the herd cause the herd is going to lose the war. They might win battles but the war they will lose. Study the charts look for those areas where the market is most likely to reverse. Get in on those and hold your profits. Most people fail cause their risk management is so screwed up.


Number one rule in trading let profits ride cut losses short. You should always have atleast a 2/1 ratio.

It's all there for us to see, some just choose to ignore the signs

Hey Steelhead - don't want to put any work on you, but could you get a screenshot of an example? I'd love to learn anything that gives you an edge. If you don't want to make a screenshot - can you give me some times/dates and what to look for and I'll certainly do my homework
  • #8,139
  • Edited 11:14pm Jun 12, 2008 11:07pm | Edited 11:14pm
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippet:

Oh that smell. Can't you smell that smell?
I was just pinging with Mr. Practical and we had the following exchange. We share it with ye faithful in the spirit of community.
Mr. Practical: Yields are upticking. Fed Fund Futures are implying a rate hike in September.
Toddo: Yeesh, talk about a death knell. That has "foreign influence" written all over it.
Mr. Practical: Central banks may have given notice to Ben that if he doesn't raise rates, the dollar is toast. We should remind Minyans to read The Pin Prick. It's as relevant today as it was then. Instead of foreign central banks abandoning the auction, they're giving him fair warning.
There is no breathing room for the box Bernanke is in. Several Fed governors are in open revolt calling for higher rates, and others are openly questioning the Term Auction Facility (TAF), and Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF). US consumers are getting smoked by rising prices, banks are getting smoked by falling margins, rising defaults, and the need to raise capital. Housing will be further smoked if Bernanke is forced to raise rates and the dollar may be further smoked if he does not.
Economic Checkmate


Snippet:


click on chart for sharper image
While there is nothing unusual about treasury spreads widening, it is unusual for yields on the two year to soar in relation to yields on the 30 year long bond. A four standard deviation event occurred on Monday (see Treasury Curve Steepening Bet Blows Sky High) and there was a continuation on Tuesday. So this makes the third occurrence this week of the yield curve flattening at a higher level.
Such action is not good for financial companies that tend to borrow short and lend long. In fact, it's not good for the stock market on the whole.

Snippet:


How Big Was This Move?

Minyanville Professor Jason Goepfert writes:

How big is it? It's in the top 0.5% of all daily moves since 1975. Put another way, it's a four standard deviation event.

Are we going to now be hearing about funds going under that had put on leveraged curve steepeners?

I have strong doubts the Fed is going to hike given that any hikes will add to the wreckage in housing. However, if the Fed does hike, it will be for one reason only: It was forced to by the markets. It sure won't be because of a strengthening economy.

One day does not necessarily prove much, but the fact that there was no selloff in the long bond today in spite of a massive move in the 2's may be telling.

Whatever inflation scare is happening, the long bond sure did not see it today.



Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #8,140
  • Jun 12, 2008 11:54pm Jun 12, 2008 11:54pm
Took Profit and I am out again......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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