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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,101
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:59pm Jun 11, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting static
It depends what timeframe you're looking at.

A spike can happen on the weekly and take 5 days or on the 4 hr and take 20 minutes for the bulk of the move.

I think the tricky thing about exhaustion spikes is that there is no quantitative definition. It would be impossible to give a description of one without taking into account the price action in the vicinity of the spike. So I would say, if the market rallys 150 pips and then retraces the whole rally within a day while the average daily range of that period was, say 70 pips, then you have seen an exhaustion spike. (see chart)

Jacko discusses exhaustion spikes as a way to look for retraces (especially with regards to the now suspended counter-trend strategy). But the term isn't really specifically defined.

I like the James16 approach to exhaustion spikes specifically because there is a working definition. If you haven't checked it out, you should, you will be glad you did.

In general, the more violently/quickly a spike happens the stronger the signal. (The more buyers/sellers are coming in at that level). Also, if the spike happens in high-volume trading that is also a good indication of at least a short term top/bottom.

I don't know if anyone remembers the Vegas Wealth Builder system? But Vegas used something similar to define a daily reversal, and used the speed of the reversal as part of the criteria for entering a trade. (Ie. the faster the reversal, the more convincing)

Hope this helps. Comments welcome. Can't tell if I made a lot of sense.
thanx alot for ur info..where can I read abt James16 approach of reversal??

EURUSD bear are defintely trying to make a comeback!!
  • #4,102
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:00pm Jun 11, 2008 7:00pm
Nice move, the thread not the trade
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #4,103
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:57pm Jun 11, 2008 8:57pm
I got stopped out on my AH at 1.5550. Trying to understand where is Euro heading. Have my last buy order at 1.5400. Beyond that, only sell.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,104
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:08pm Jun 11, 2008 10:08pm
Quoting raczekfx
Right on the daily pivot zone... nice..
Nev.... underestimate the power of ppz....
Attached Image
  • #4,105
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:34am Jun 12, 2008 2:34am
Hi all,
Great thread.
Thanks to Jaco.
Anyone considers 1.5400 area a deep enough dip to diphttp://forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif

Kobi
  • #4,106
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:15am Jun 12, 2008 6:15am
My trade got stopped out for -100 pips a couple of days ago. I was unable to put on my AH because I have been in the middle of the outback for the last couple of days but I'll be sitting out at present and watching what the new week brings in the way of opportunities.
  • #4,107
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:22am Jun 12, 2008 6:22am
Thought I would say something because it seems everyone is so eager to buy.

First off... we're making lower highs/lows on the 4 hour. This is the market telling you it wants to go down. If the market is going down, don't buy. The market is ALWAYS right and I suggest you listen to it. When we start making higher highs/lows, THEN look at opportunities to buy.
  • #4,108
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:51am Jun 12, 2008 6:51am
Quoting raczekfx
Nev.... underestimate the power of ppz....
Hey Rac
I agree with what you are saying, but if you follow a strat you follow it, so if AH is part of this strat which I am following I follow it...SOMETIMES ppzs dont hold ehhhhh. No seriously, I see what you are saying and I think its good to keep other things in mind but its mathematical in the end, some trades work some dont, some AHs work some dont, its got to be as non discretionary as possible or we just wouldnt pull the trigger anywhere...if it isnt a ppz its a fib, or an ma, there is always a reason NOT to pull the trigger. So far, this has worked very very well for me so I will continue to use it, until its not good for me anymore ...anyway, as you know PA is my favourite tool so whatever I do will be in conjunction with that, and all I learned on the J16 thread
Take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,109
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:51am Jun 12, 2008 6:51am
Quoting zoopy
Thought I would say something because it seems everyone is so eager to buy.

First off... we're making lower highs/lows on the 4 hour. This is the market telling you it wants to go down. If the market is going down, don't buy. The market is ALWAYS right and I suggest you listen to it. When we start making higher highs/lows, THEN look at opportunities to buy.
Thanks Zoopy. Took a note of it.

On the other hand, I noticed that the price touched the TL and bounced.
Looks like we have a serious battle here.
  • #4,110
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:53am Jun 12, 2008 6:53am
Did anybody go short on AUDUSD and follow it down all day?
Expected the unexpected
  • #4,111
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:07am Jun 12, 2008 7:07am
Quoting kobifx
Thanks Zoopy. Took a note of it.

On the other hand, I noticed that the price touched the TL and bounced.
Looks like we have a serious battle here.
Kaunasny pointed out in my journal that there's support at 1.5400. I think he's referring to what I have highlighted on my daily line chart (Kaunasny correct me if I'm wrong). If there's to be any bounce, it's probably going to happen there or 1.5300/1.5350 area since there's another well defined valley there. Keep an eye on those areas to see if there's any movement up.
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  • #4,112
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:39am Jun 12, 2008 7:39am
Quoting zoopy
Kaunasny pointed out in my journal that there's support at 1.5400. I think he's referring to what I have highlighted on my daily line chart (Kaunasny correct me if I'm wrong). If there's to be any bounce, it's probably going to happen there or 1.5300/1.5350 area since there's another well defined valley there. Keep an eye on those areas to see if there's any movement up.
Yes I visited your journal. Pretty contemplative.
However, Im not getting used to line charts. It lacks a lot of PA info we do get in candlesticks. Turn to candlesticks and you'll notice an ascending trendline marked by the lows, currently penetrated by the price with the assitance of US better retail sales.
  • #4,113
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:56am Jun 12, 2008 8:56am
Quoting razldazl
Hey Rac
I agree with what you are saying, but if you follow a strat you follow it, so if AH is part of this strat which I am following I follow it...SOMETIMES ppzs dont hold ehhhhh. No seriously, I see what you are saying and I think its good to keep other things in mind but its mathematical in the end, some trades work some dont, some AHs work some dont, its got to be as non discretionary as possible or we just wouldnt pull the trigger anywhere...if it isnt a ppz its a fib, or an ma, there is always a reason NOT to pull the trigger. So far, this has worked very very well for me so I will continue to use it, until its not good for me anymore ...anyway, as you know PA is my favourite tool so whatever I do will be in conjunction with that, and all I learned on the J16 thread
Take care, Raz
Agreed.. people should stick with stuff that works for them...
Regardless how mechanical my entries are, I like to watch to elephants hiding in the bushes....
Missing you in a PA thread...
  • #4,114
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:16am Jun 12, 2008 9:16am
Quoting razldazl
Hey Rac
I agree with what you are saying, but if you follow a strat you follow it, so if AH is part of this strat which I am following I follow it...SOMETIMES ppzs dont hold ehhhhh. No seriously, I see what you are saying and I think its good to keep other things in mind but its mathematical in the end, some trades work some dont, some AHs work some dont, its got to be as non discretionary as possible or we just wouldnt pull the trigger anywhere...if it isnt a ppz its a fib, or an ma, there is always a reason NOT to pull the trigger. So far, this has worked very very well for me so I will continue to use it, until its not good for me anymore ...anyway, as you know PA is my favourite tool so whatever I do will be in conjunction with that, and all I learned on the J16 thread
Take care, Raz
Well said Raz.

That's also the reason why you should keep things simple so that it's easy to follow otherwise over analysis and complexity will cause doubt. You'll start thinking of all the possibilities of what could happen, mind you in the end like you said it's all about probabilities so it really doesn't matter how much you think or how many indicators you have, you could still be wrong. But like Jacko says...

"When you trade with the trend, even if you make a mistake, the market will get you out of your problem....If you make a mistake and you are fighting the trend ...YOU ARE STUFFED, BIG TIME !!!"

Also... if it's not broken, don't fix it. Thought I would include the link below to SeekingLight's story of the dog since we're on this topic

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88957



  • #4,115
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:29am Jun 12, 2008 9:29am
Hi guys !!!

Seems like there are no sellers ate 5400 and no buyers at 5430. What a struggle !!!, lol

I think Mr. B. will decide this fight in an hour !!!

Someone will have to give in, lol....
I would say resistence at 5370 is very strong, but as I cant predict the market, I am waiting......

Cheers
''I am too sexy for my pips, too sexy for my pips, too sexy yeahhh...''
  • #4,116
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:34pm Jun 12, 2008 2:34pm
Quoting zoopy
Kaunasny pointed out in my journal that there's support at 1.5400. I think he's referring to what I have highlighted on my daily line chart (Kaunasny correct me if I'm wrong). If there's to be any bounce, it's probably going to happen there or 1.5300/1.5350 area since there's another well defined valley there. Keep an eye on those areas to see if there's any movement up.
Indeed, I'm just looking at 1.5400 as a strong number and I expect buyers there. Thought that doesn't mean I'm buying there, market has to show me first it wants to go up.
In zoopys journal I showed a graph where I was expecting a turnaround to occur at 1.5300-1.5400 . We have hit a low of 1.5378 and I'm still looking for that turnaround. Nothing convicing enaugh yet to go long.
  • #4,117
  • Jun 12, 2008 3:54pm Jun 12, 2008 3:54pm
Quoting kaunasny
Indeed, I'm just looking at 1.5400 as a strong number and I expect buyers there. Thought that doesn't mean I'm buying there, market has to show me first it wants to go up.
In zoopys journal I showed a graph where I was expecting a turnaround to occur at 1.5300-1.5400 . We have hit a low of 1.5378 and I'm still looking for that turnaround. Nothing convicing enaugh yet to go long.
That's a very good approach and also why I mentioned in a previous post... when the market is dropping the way it's doing now, don't rush into buying. Let the market prove itself first that it wants to climb THEN start buying. Look for higher highs/lows.
  • #4,118
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:18pm Jun 12, 2008 6:18pm
Good advise as usual Zoopy.
I also wanted to be sure everyone was aware of the G8 meeting going on this weekend. The last meeting caused a big gap.
Camptrader
  • #4,119
  • Jun 12, 2008 6:45pm Jun 12, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting camptrader
Good advise as usual Zoopy.
I also wanted to be sure everyone was aware of the G8 meeting going on this weekend. The last meeting caused a big gap.
Yup. Be careful of holding trades over the weekend. Probably best to wait until next week to see what happens after the G8 meeting. Something tells me we're going to get another crazy gap.
  • #4,120
  • Jun 13, 2008 4:44am Jun 13, 2008 4:44am
Quoting zoopy
Thought I would say something because it seems everyone is so eager to buy.

First off... we're making lower highs/lows on the 4 hour. This is the market telling you it wants to go down. If the market is going down, don't buy. The market is ALWAYS right and I suggest you listen to it. When we start making higher highs/lows, THEN look at opportunities to buy.
Words of wisdom.
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