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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #4,081
  • Jun 10, 2008 12:29pm Jun 10, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting Dedax
Yeah, snorkel is working just ok. But lets be cautious- Think I see a resistance forming @ 1.5830 (check from 2008/03/17 till date on the daily). Bernie is still the FED chief priest. If he says USD woes are over, he "may" be right. AH all the way. I wont place nothing till my point .5600 is picked up. If this current retracement goes anywhere close to 80% Im taking a spectators seat. What y'all think?
Hi Dedax,

yes man, my snorkel sank! oopppss But as I said, my risk management will keep me alive for a while.

About Bernanke, all of them had said that they want "a strong dollar", and treasury secretaries had said the same for over the past 5 years and what happened? The dollar has slumped into the swamp. This is like polititian's campaigns when the need the votes and promise a tax rebate.......oh yeah!!!


Just for fun:

The one dollar bill went to see the doctor and said "I re-fell" and the doctor answered "yes you did, but you must pay me in Euros"

I think Bernanke's lately comments are just a response to Trichet's speach about raising rates in Europe, but what may happened if US raise their rate with unemployment and growth? What will happened with the IS-LM curve GDP? And other factors that we do not care but they do because it's their job.


Good trades to all


TRADETHEPIPS
  • #4,082
  • Jun 10, 2008 12:38pm Jun 10, 2008 12:38pm
Hi!

I`ve spent some time going through Jackos first posts, and I`ve been wondering for some time how to use the fibs to get the same picture Jacko is looking at. Can`t really figure it out whats the right thing to do...

When I enter the fib on the last month I end up with a 50% fib level at about 1.5500. For 2008, I get 1.5200, and for the last 7 days, I get somewhere above 1.5600(The closest round number).

I guess the strongest support is on the long term trend, and that 1.5200 is a safe place to buy, as it has been said here several times before, even though 1.5400 has been a good support level the last 3 months...

Any comments on what to do?

I`m also wondering if anyone has any comments on the more hawkish Bernanke comments lately. Are these just verbal interventions, or will the fed start to fight inflation for real? I know Jacko has posted som thoughts on fundamental issues supporting the trend before. Anyone know what Jacko is thinking about these issues at the time?

Good trading to everyone writing and lurking in this wonderful thread!
  • #4,083
  • Jun 10, 2008 2:03pm Jun 10, 2008 2:03pm
Quoting FXfelix
Hi!

I`ve spent some time going through Jackos first posts, and I`ve been wondering for some time how to use the fibs to get the same picture Jacko is looking at. Can`t really figure it out whats the right thing to do...

When I enter the fib on the last month I end up with a 50% fib level at about 1.5500. For 2008, I get 1.5200, and for the last 7 days, I get somewhere above 1.5600(The closest round number).

I guess the strongest support is on the long term trend, and that 1.5200 is a safe place to buy, as it has been said here several times before, even though 1.5400 has been a good support level the last 3 months...

Any comments on what to do?

I`m also wondering if anyone has any comments on the more hawkish Bernanke comments lately. Are these just verbal interventions, or will the fed start to fight inflation for real? I know Jacko has posted som thoughts on fundamental issues supporting the trend before. Anyone know what Jacko is thinking about these issues at the time?

Good trading to everyone writing and lurking in this wonderful thread!
Hi Felix,
I think everyone is asking the same question at the moment to be honest. The last so called good buy point would have been 1.5600, as the 50 fib of the last upmove, and until we see some strong PA or other indication that things have turned around Im not touching this...I think if this drops lower than last weeks low (let alone 1.52 ) I will be re evaluating my thoughts on where eur is going...in any case these last few daily bars are extremely bearish and until that changes I wouldnt think of taking a position(this doesnt mean nobody else should you can always give it a shot if your mm allows it and you feel comfortable with what you are risking). Jacko is on holiday, so I cant speak for him. Jacko is certainly one of the most experienced and successful traders I have ever been lucky enough to meet...and behind that success is the confidence that comes from being good at what you do, so his decisions reflect this confidence which is in turn based on knowledge that comes from experience. And even he gets it wrong sometimes, so all you and I can do, as less experienced, successful traders, is make a decision based on our personal evaluation of the market and follow through...I have an AH at 1.5550 now, so if that gets picked up then I will be in the market, otherwise I am staying out. I am happy with that decision and willing to risk that loss, thats all there is to it. Ok, Im going to shut up now...Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,084
  • Jun 10, 2008 2:31pm Jun 10, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting razldazl

..I have an AH at 1.5550 now, so if that gets picked up then I will be in the market,
...Raz
Right on the daily pivot zone... nice..
  • #4,085
  • Jun 10, 2008 2:58pm Jun 10, 2008 2:58pm
Quick Ponder if you are stopped out by your S/L and you get enough away to insert your AH. Does this mean no more trades till the AH plays out or could you place the AH and other pending orders.

New Jaco Group Member
  • #4,086
  • Jun 10, 2008 3:06pm Jun 10, 2008 3:06pm
Quoting meepatme
Quick Ponder if you are stopped out by your S/L and you get enough away to insert your AH. Does this mean no more trades till the AH plays out or could you place the AH and other pending orders.

New Jaco Group Member
Just remember, the more trades you place the bigger your final position will be because if you enter now for example at 1.5450 with 1, then you have an AH at 1.5500 you will add another 1 and so on as you add AHs and positions. It is important to keep this in mind because your account must be able to handle it and you must be able to handle the larger sized positions psychologically. I cant emphasize this point enough. Remember AHs are automatic, mechanical, there is no decision involved you place them regardless of what you think might happen once the market has moved more than 50 pips beyond your stop.
Never say never.
  • #4,087
  • Jun 10, 2008 3:19pm Jun 10, 2008 3:19pm
Thank you for a good answer Raz!

I semm to be forgetting all the time that this is not about picking bottoms. I think my last post was about the same issue; trying to catch the falling knife. I`m quite obviously a newbie in forex, and I guess the next time we have a big retracement like this, I`ll ask where to get in yet again

Anyway, thank you for your time, and happy trading to all of Jackos followers out there!
  • #4,088
  • Jun 10, 2008 4:43pm Jun 10, 2008 4:43pm
I went long 1.5450

but if you want to be fancy enter at 1.5432 because it's a cool number
  • #4,089
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:35am Jun 11, 2008 3:35am
Quoting razldazl
Jackos strat guys, what does this have to do with anything Jacko says...Ive never heard Jacko talking about breakout trading...

razldazl,

Following Jacko's method doesn't require you leave all reason & common sense outside the trading room.

We are currently trading within a range, major market participitants are battling out to control the next directional move.



Kind regards,

BabeFX.
  • #4,090
  • Jun 11, 2008 4:04am Jun 11, 2008 4:04am
Quoting BabeFX
razldazl,

Following Jacko's method doesn't require you leave all reason & common sense outside the trading room.

We are currently trading within a range, major market participitants are battling out to control the next directional move.



Kind regards,

BabeFX.
Sorry Babe I didnt mean to have a dig at you personally, just trying to avoid having to wade through pages and pages of sells, breakouts and other unrelated topics. No offense meant to you or anyone else I happen to pick on every now and then...feel free to pm me , Raz
Never say never.
  • #4,091
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:20am Jun 11, 2008 8:20am
I am long EU at 1.5461. Sitting at +44 pips at the moment. Stop has been trailed up to 1.5468, so 3 pips are locked in.

I also have an AH pending order at 1.5568 where I got stopped out last.

Anyone else in this trade?

Glen
Attached Image
  • #4,092
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:31am Jun 11, 2008 8:31am
Quoting prosperfx
I am long EU at 1.5461. Sitting at +44 pips at the moment. Stop has been trailed up to 1.5468, so 3 pips are locked in.

I also have an AH pending order at 1.5568 where I got stopped out last.

Anyone else in this trade?

Glen
Do u see what I see...?

http://i32.tinypic.com/20z358g.gif



sonic
  • #4,093
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:33am Jun 11, 2008 8:33am
Hey guys, just a quick question, in earlier posts Jacko had said he was thinking about trading other pairs, GU maybe, any of the Jacko turtles know if he trades any other pairs or just strictly EU. I'm just curious.
  • #4,094
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:42am Jun 11, 2008 8:42am
I'm not sure!

If you mean EU heading up, I think I do see what you see. I could be wrong of course!

Quoting sonicdeejay
Do u see what I see...?

http://i32.tinypic.com/20z358g.gif



sonic
  • #4,095
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:57am Jun 11, 2008 8:57am
Quoting greywolf238
Hey guys, just a quick question, in earlier posts Jacko had said he was thinking about trading other pairs, GU maybe, any of the Jacko turtles know if he trades any other pairs or just strictly EU. I'm just curious.
He trades strictly eurusd only.

1. Trends the best
2. You're more focused since you're only trading one pair
3. Spread is the lowest
4. Allows you to get a good feel for the pair and it's movements
5. You won't be stuck in front of the screen watching many pairs (mind you, if you can't trade one pair, chances are you won't be able to trade two or more)

Those are the main reasons why but I'm sure there are many others.
  • #4,096
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:41am Jun 11, 2008 10:41am
Thanks for the info zoopy, i just starting reading your journal also, lots of good info..
  • #4,097
  • Jun 11, 2008 10:53am Jun 11, 2008 10:53am
Quoting greywolf238
Thanks for the info zoopy, i just starting reading your journal also, lots of good info..
Thanks greywolf

I'm doing an interesting study/experiment now of why traders should always trade with the trend although I define the trend differently than Jacko does but the principle is the same.
  • #4,098
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:16pm Jun 11, 2008 12:16pm
Hi all,

I've got a doubt about the spikes. To consider something as a spike must it be formed quickly? or may it do it slowly? Is the important part of it just the formation of the bar (candlestick)?

Thank you any comments.


TRADETHEPIPS
  • #4,099
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:03pm Jun 11, 2008 5:03pm
Quoting Tradethepips
Hi all,

I've got a doubt about the spikes. To consider something as a spike must it be formed quickly? or may it do it slowly? Is the important part of it just the formation of the bar (candlestick)?

Thank you any comments.


TRADETHEPIPS
It depends what timeframe you're looking at.

A spike can happen on the weekly and take 5 days or on the 4 hr and take 20 minutes for the bulk of the move.

I think the tricky thing about exhaustion spikes is that there is no quantitative definition. It would be impossible to give a description of one without taking into account the price action in the vicinity of the spike. So I would say, if the market rallys 150 pips and then retraces the whole rally within a day while the average daily range of that period was, say 70 pips, then you have seen an exhaustion spike. (see chart)

Jacko discusses exhaustion spikes as a way to look for retraces (especially with regards to the now suspended counter-trend strategy). But the term isn't really specifically defined.

I like the James16 approach to exhaustion spikes specifically because there is a working definition. If you haven't checked it out, you should, you will be glad you did.

In general, the more violently/quickly a spike happens the stronger the signal. (The more buyers/sellers are coming in at that level). Also, if the spike happens in high-volume trading that is also a good indication of at least a short term top/bottom.

I don't know if anyone remembers the Vegas Wealth Builder system? But Vegas used something similar to define a daily reversal, and used the speed of the reversal as part of the criteria for entering a trade. (Ie. the faster the reversal, the more convincing)

Hope this helps. Comments welcome. Can't tell if I made a lot of sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,100
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:07pm Jun 11, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting static
It depends what timeframe you're looking at.

Hope this helps. Comments welcome. Can't tell if I made a lot of sense.
Hi Static, yes man, you make a lot of sense to me, thank you. I'm going to check the sites you said.

Thanks a lot.

TRADETHEPIPS
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