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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #8,021
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:25pm Jun 12, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I'm curious about something Schminner: Did you margin out on your short or you still ridding it?
Still riding it .... the position opened at 106.00 .... I have at least 200 pips to stretch before margin call ..... what really sucks is the swap that's gradually chipping away at it ..... not sure now if 106 will ever be revisited, or will it just memories ....
  • #8,022
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:26pm Jun 12, 2008 1:26pm
Quoting dwildes
Hey Pipmac - what MAs are you watching on what timeframe?

I watch the 13EMA on the 15 and 30.

It broke the MA on the 15 but not the 30.

BEcause if broke the EMA on the 15 but sits right on support, that would negate a short for time being.
  • #8,023
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:28pm Jun 12, 2008 1:28pm
Quoting Schminner
Still riding it .... the position opened at 106.00 .... I have at least 200 pips to stretch before margin call ..... what really sucks is the swap that's gradually chipping away at it ..... not sure now if 106 will ever be revisited, or will it just memories ....
I thought you said you opened at 105.50....... Oh well, good luck anyway.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,024
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:30pm Jun 12, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting dwildes
Hey Pipmac - what MAs are you watching on what timeframe?
So my short signal is at the break of support at 107.68.

1. It broke the 13EMA
2. It breaks support

I will take a short at 107.68 and TP 107.35
  • #8,025
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:31pm Jun 12, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting pipmac
I watch the 13EMA on the 15 and 30.

It broke the MA on the 15 but not the 30.

BEcause if broke the EMA on the 15 but sits right on support, that would negate a short for time being.
Cool - thanks!
Is that in combination with the BBs set to 12?
  • #8,026
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:36pm Jun 12, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting dwildes
Cool - thanks!
Is that in combination with the BBs set to 12?
Just standard settings on the BB (20)

I don't put much weight on the BB.

Support and resistance levels work better for me.
  • #8,027
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:38pm Jun 12, 2008 1:38pm
Quoting pipmac
Just standard settings on the BB (20)

I don't put much weight on the BB.

Support and resistance levels work better for me.
Gotcha - thanks for the info!
  • #8,028
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:44pm Jun 12, 2008 1:44pm
Quoting dwildes
Gotcha - thanks for the info!
NP. A break of support will give me a clean 30m EMA break as Well.

So then i have a break of 15m EMA 30m EMA and support break at 107.75
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  • #8,029
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:44pm Jun 12, 2008 1:44pm
Dove,
Do you use any oscillators and do you pay much attention to overbought/oversold indicators? The H1, H4, D1 & W1 are all pretty much in the overbought territory on a 5,3,3 stochastic

Are any of those considered for retracement?
  • #8,030
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:46pm Jun 12, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting Schminner
Still riding it .... the position opened at 106.00 .... I have at least 200 pips to stretch before margin call ..... what really sucks is the swap that's gradually chipping away at it ..... not sure now if 106 will ever be revisited, or will it just memories ....
almost in the same boat. except i opened at 106.71
  • #8,031
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:49pm Jun 12, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting pipmac
NP. A break of support will give me a clean 30m EMA break as Well.

So then i have a break of 15m EMA 30m EMA and support break at 107.70
I'll be on the lookout
More power to you - I'd be too nervous to short this thing until it falls under 107.5x or bounces off 108.3x
  • #8,032
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:58pm Jun 12, 2008 1:58pm
I have a question about pivots and money management....

do you adjust the money management or the number of lots based of the distance between pivot and S1 and R1? does it sound a good idea?

Also... do you trade only from pivot to R1 and S1 ignoring R2 and S2 or R3 and S3 ?

thanks
  • #8,033
  • Jun 12, 2008 1:58pm Jun 12, 2008 1:58pm
Oil could spike above USD140. Maybe about USD143 I guess.

Dow should make a new low. Crucial last hour of trading.
  • #8,034
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:00pm Jun 12, 2008 2:00pm
Are u still trading the afternoon 1-3 U.S. trade closeouts...looks like we are getting alittle pullback before the fireworks go off after 1700...took the para out on the 1 hour!! we should see the daily R2 and or the R3 once we break the 108.12 area......what are you thoughts??..


Quoting dove_alliance
I thought you said you opened at 105.50....... Oh well, good luck anyway.
  • #8,035
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:04pm Jun 12, 2008 2:04pm
The opening 1st hour spike on DJI is most probably done by amateur traders.

Professional traders prefer to fade them / go against the spike with a small SL on top.

They can be wrong 50% of the time but still made a lot of money.
  • #8,036
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:05pm Jun 12, 2008 2:05pm
Quoting dwildes
Dove,
Do you use any oscillators and do you pay much attention to overbought/oversold indicators? The H1, H4, D1 & W1 are all pretty much in the overbought territory on a 5,3,3 stochastic

Are any of those considered for retracement?
No - I do not use them, they are unreliable..... The oscillators could, and do so, remain in the overbought or oversold for hours on end and even for days when there is no room to move any further.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,037
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:08pm Jun 12, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting dove_alliance
No - I do not use them, they are unreliable..... The oscillators could, and do so, remain in the overbought or oversold for hours on end and even for days when there is no room to move any further.
Exactly what I'm seeing.
I heard they work best though when they are all in agreement and especially when they travel over the 80 heading down from overbought and 20 up from oversold?
  • #8,038
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:08pm Jun 12, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting emda
I have a question about pivots and money management....

do you adjust the money management or the number of lots based of the distance between pivot and S1 and R1? does it sound a good idea?

Also... do you trade only from pivot to R1 and S1 ignoring R2 and S2 or R3 and S3 ?

thanks
I base my lots on my account balance and I play the save side with the R1 and S1 but depending on the movement and time of the session will I consider the next pivot......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #8,039
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:10pm Jun 12, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting emda
do you adjust the money management or the number of lots based of the distance between pivot and S1 and R1? does it sound a good idea?
I noticed that the greater the spread between the pivots the more reliable market momentum analysis. When the pivots are conjested there is no room to ride the predictable wave to the next level.

On the other hand, strongest breakouts usually occur from densely placed pivots, since this setup arises from temporary market indecision in further direction.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #8,040
  • Jun 12, 2008 2:12pm Jun 12, 2008 2:12pm
Quoting Mrpipmaster
Are u still trading the afternoon 1-3 U.S. trade closeouts...looks like we are getting alittle pullback before the fireworks go off after 1700...took the para out on the 1 hour!! we should see the daily R2 and or the R3 once we break the 108.12 area......what are you thoughts??..
It's hovering over the M4 at the 94 and I really don't see any action until after 17:00...... The U.S. may close a few trades during the next hour or so but that is only a chance and not worth the effort.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
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