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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,981
  • Jun 12, 2008 7:52am Jun 12, 2008 7:52am
YES Baby Go ...

USD/JPY at 107.63 Bid

Charts Indeed and Fundamentals Indeed and COMMON SENSE !!!


Bruce
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  • #7,982
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:02am Jun 12, 2008 8:02am
Quoting Warren Forex
YES Baby Go ...

USD/JPY at 107.63 Bid

Charts Indeed and Fundamentals Indeed and COMMON SENSE !!!


Bruce
My first 25 Demo trades at Fx Solutions were all winning ones. No losses. Locked in profit is $2151.15 after deducting $155.56 in carrying costs. I have open positions from 106.24 and 106.69 and 106.86 All other 6 open positions are from 107.02 to 107.66 and my drawdown is about 6% and my average cost is 107.15

I am only utilizing 9.36% of my capital

Any comments, questions or suggestions. I am calm and relaxed again. I took a valium.

I do not smoke, do drugs, gamble, drink to excess.

My bad habit ? Guess ! Fast Cars and Fast Women :-)
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  • #7,983
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:04am Jun 12, 2008 8:04am
Bruce, do we need to wait and see what the market does with this recent Lehman news, or does that not have any impact on your trading style at all?
  • #7,984
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:06am Jun 12, 2008 8:06am
Quoting Warren Forex
My first 25 Demo trades at Fx Solutions were all winning ones. No losses. Locked in profit is $2151.15 after deducting $155.56 in carrying costs. I have open positions from 106.24 and 106.69 and 106.86 All other 6 open positions are from 107.02 to 107.66 and my drawdown is about 6% and my average cost is 107.15

I am only utilizing 9.36% of my capital

Any comments, questions or suggestions. I am calm and relaxed again. I took a valium.

I do not smoke, do drugs, gamble, drink to excess.

My bad habit ? Guess ! Fast Cars and Fast Women :-)
I didn't take a Valium. I rarely take pills except for Advil if I have a Bad Migraine from too little sleep.

10 Year US Bonds Now At 4.16% Yield so funds are still on the sidelines in CASH !!!

Look at US Dollar Index Now

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2


Bruce
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  • #7,985
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:16am Jun 12, 2008 8:16am
Quoting s3padrian
Don't see that 107.75 has been hit just yet. Looks like it's going out though. Rather unfortunate. Means my analysis was completely off.
You were correct, I was reading the data from another MT4 platform - at that time 107.73 was the high on my trading platform. The strong retail sales data gave UJ a push up past the mid pivot and on to the 108 level for a cool + 148 pip move so far today. Now to see what happens after the NY open......gold's holding at its S2 level and the dow futures at their DP.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,986
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:17am Jun 12, 2008 8:17am
Quoting TheDirtySerb
Bruce, do we need to wait and see what the market does with this recent Lehman news, or does that not have any impact on your trading style at all?
That is probably why Futures are now only UP 69

We need One Hour of Trading to see where the Dow is going. The Markets decide that. Wait until the 10:00 AM Option Expiry. I think some of the FEDS will be Telling Us Look How Strong the US Dollar is. I guess we will just CUT rates again.

I am 95% sure they will NOT raise from 2% and it is NOW PRICED into the Market so they are COOKED...

YUM YUM US Dollar For Lunch ECB now has 10 times more Credibility than FED

That Is The Way I See It.

Folks PLEASE do not Mistake My Enthusiasm for Bragging. I really would like to help folks make money and I enjoy the challenge.

Trust Me when I tell you I have made ALL the Mistakes learning. I once BLEW out a $45,000 Real Funds US Dollar Account on October 10, 2006. It went to $15,000 US in 5 Minutes on a Margin Call.

It Took me until March 15, 2007 or so to get it to $55,000 US Dollars. My Client NEVER said a word as I rebuild his account. That was my WORST moment and My Best...

I have paid my dues including being called a Con Artist and Whatever. Trade Freedom, Man Financial Canada, PFG in Chicago, HotSpot FX and FXCM where I am a IB would not let me trade funds for their clients under a "LPOA" if I was a Con or Lousy Trader.

If It Gets To 108.00 and Fails I will keep shorting with the CRITICAL AREA at 108.35


Bruce
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  • #7,987
  • Edited 8:26am Jun 12, 2008 8:22am | Edited 8:26am
Bernake Speaks at 11:30 AM

Look at Data Releases for Friday with CPI and other items. G8 meeting on Weekend. No Finance Ministers will be there BUT they will have their walking orders.

Be ready for ANYTHING next Week.


Bruce

As Dove Alliance has said...Watch recovery of EUR/USD as it is now over 154.00 at 154.14 Bid

Watch EUR/JPY Currency Pair as it is back at 166.29 and affects price of USD/JPY as they SELL Yen and Buy Euro

Dow Opens in 5 minutes. Some Data Out at 10:00 AM I think and Lehman is DROPPING BIG TIME now !!!


Btuce
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  • #7,988
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:26am Jun 12, 2008 8:26am
Hi Bruce

I just wanted to let you know that I am very grateful for the time you take in posting your informative views on the market.

It is greatly appreciated and I always look forward to reading your posts.


Thanks
  • #7,989
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:28am Jun 12, 2008 8:28am
Bruce,

I concur with fxjoy. First time reading over thread - I can "feel" your enthusiasm - definitely uplifting. And when I see Islander here, wow, what have I been missing! Thanks much.
  • #7,990
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:39am Jun 12, 2008 8:39am
I am long @ 107.85, first target - 107.97 (daily mid-pivot), second target - 108.30 (daily R2) minus 5 pips for safety
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,991
  • Jun 12, 2008 8:43am Jun 12, 2008 8:43am
Quoting Rialto
Bruce,

I concur with fxjoy. First time reading over thread - I can "feel" your enthusiasm - definitely uplifting. And when I see Islander here, wow, what have I been missing! Thanks much.
LOL Rialto - yes, Bruce provides some interesting insights and excellent links to different fundemental views.

Also, Dove has returned to make a few posts and help me sharpen up my use of the pivots. As you can see, I've given up being totally naked as I'm now watching 10+ pairs / contracts and having the MA on each aids clarity and comparison.

Now to see what the NY trading brings - UJ is still above my rising MA......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,992
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:07am Jun 12, 2008 9:07am
I'm still long, but the 200 ma is the key to further rise, imo. If breaks that then 115 target. poss 116. Will half close if we baulk the 200ma too hard.
All just my opinion.
Flat Eric
  • #7,993
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:30am Jun 12, 2008 9:30am
I'm sitting on the sidelines currently.
Wish I would have held my long of last night longer though.

It looks like it is ready to come down since the daily range has been nothing but UP. Has anyone used the PIP range in their trading? If we hover at the top all day, it should run out of steam eventually right?
  • #7,994
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:30am Jun 12, 2008 9:30am
Quoting FlatEric
I'm still long, but the 200 ma is the key to further rise, imo. If breaks that then 115 target. poss 116. Will half close if we baulk the 200ma too hard.
All just my opinion.
PLEASE TRUST ME !!! The Technicals just give you a instant view of Market Psychology !!!

Just Because it was at 120 does not mean it will return. Your Charts will show the Opposite tomorrow if it closes at 106.00 so PLEASE put your Bias away before you Go Long To The Salvation Army.

108.35 FIRST... Then we can get serious. Do You Think The Dow Can Go UP 1000 Points from here ? Do you think the FED will raise in June ? Do You Think The ECB will raise in July ? Do You Think Oil will remain above $120 ?

PLEASE Get Some Fundy's In Yout Tummy before you GET a Upset Tummy !!!

Just My Opinion as it heads back toward 107.50 with the High Only 108.098 so far and Dow is UP 136 !!!

What If Dow comes back 50 this PM

The Dow was Down 200 yesterday ! What about Lehman ? Will EUR/USD keep going UP as ECB raises in July ! What if the FED does not raise in June ? Will the Markets go UP or Down ? You CANNOT ASK THESE QUESTIONS of Technicals

Be Stubborn and ENJOY hanging with the 95% Group. More Work understanding the Fundamentals BUT IT WORKS...

Bruce
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  • #7,995
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:36am Jun 12, 2008 9:36am
Bruce,
I hear ya - I think it's going to do down as well. We're in a recession market outlook is bad, etc..

However, why are you adamant that everyone be short? Just 2 days ago you had scorned everyone for thinking it was going to reach 107, and then 108 - but it did reach it. That's a very nice ride from 106. I want to even say I remember a post where you were saying 105.50 was the top.

If we were bias for a short - a lot of people would have missed really good opportunities to go long and make a lot of PIPs.

The point is - you were wrong short term. Medium/Long term you may be right but that is still to be seen.
  • #7,996
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:44am Jun 12, 2008 9:44am
Quoting FlatEric
I'm still long, but the 200 ma is the key to further rise, imo. If breaks that then 115 target. poss 116. Will half close if we baulk the 200ma too hard.
All just my opinion.
mm - its always helpful if you post some detail so we know what you're talking about.

Do you mean the 200 EMA of the daily - currently at 106.92? - and then up to above the Dec 2007 high - that's rather ambitious given the current state of the US economy - imo....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,997
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:47am Jun 12, 2008 9:47am
Quoting dwildes
Bruce,
I hear ya - I think it's going to do down as well. We're in a recession market outlook is bad, etc..

However, why are you adamant that everyone be short? Just 2 days ago you had scorned everyone for thinking it was going to reach 107, and then 108 - but it did reach it. That's a very nice ride from 106. I want to even say I remember a post where you were saying 105.50 was the top.

If we were bias for a short - a lot of people would have missed really good opportunities to go long and make a lot of PIPs.

The point is - you were wrong short term. Medium/Long term you may be right but that is still to be seen.

That is why I tell people not to trade from my comments. Why they should learn while demo trading. I adjust my position every day as the facts change.

Because of the FED Verbal Intervention I stayed out and only got in when I saw a good trading chance.

Do you follow me ?


Bruce
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  • #7,998
  • Jun 12, 2008 9:50am Jun 12, 2008 9:50am
Quoting Warren Forex
That is why I tell people not to trade from my comments. Why they should learn while demo trading. I adjust my position every day as the facts change.

Because of the FED Verbal Intervention I stayed out and only got in when I saw a good trading chance.

Do you follow me ?


Bruce
I have open positions I trade around. I have only used 10% of my total capital. A Run down can make a small fortune. I can short from here another 10 new positions !

I hope that explains things !!!


Bruce
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  • #7,999
  • Jun 12, 2008 10:03am Jun 12, 2008 10:03am
Quoting Warren Forex
That is why I tell people not to trade from my comments. Why they should learn while demo trading. I adjust my position every day as the facts change.

Because of the FED Verbal Intervention I stayed out and only got in when I saw a good trading chance.

Do you follow me ?
Bruce
That's fair - it is best for everyone to make their own decision.
My only problem is, if the fundamentals were as proven as you say - why haven't they performed? It seems the only way you could have made any money was buying on a few dips here & there, but the big bucks have been in the longs, which is directly opposite to what the fundamentals are saying.

I just don't see how you can make consistent money from the fundamentals. I can however pull up a chart, find some pivots and make a few dozen PIPs stress free and with a plan.
  • #8,000
  • Edited 10:15am Jun 12, 2008 10:05am | Edited 10:15am
Next bluff by Bernanke is coming in half an hour. Expect spikes both ways.
Dollar-positive trends are in effect now: USD/JPY up, next target 108.30 (daily R2), GBP/USD - down, next target 1.9420 (daily S2)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
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