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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,841
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:30pm Jun 11, 2008 5:30pm
I'm hoping it will continue to drop for a while .....
  • #7,842
  • Jun 11, 2008 5:36pm Jun 11, 2008 5:36pm
Quoting Schminner
I'm hoping it will continue to drop for a while .....

hahah - I bet!
I'm just trying to figure out the retracement vs. reversals and how to pick them out. That is definitely a weakness of mine
  • #7,843
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:10pm Jun 11, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting dwildes
Dove,
What's going on - it sounded to me like you were implying this was going to go up. Since then the EURJPY has fallen 55 PIPs and the USDJPY has fallen 25 PIPs
What I stated is that the daily trend is still up.... Just like in any other time frame trend you have the retraces..... In the daily trend the retrace can be as much as a 100 pips...... And how do you know the difference....... I use a 20 minute, a 30 minute and a 1 hour charts along with Moving Average that are set for the trends...... These moving average will keep me focus on the trend and recognizing retraces..... Most importantly I have a bollinger band on all charts set at 12 to keep the candles tight and also the focus for bounces off the bands on the retrace and even the turn around.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,844
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:41pm Jun 11, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting dwildes
hahah - I bet!
I'm just trying to figure out the retracement vs. reversals and how to pick them out. That is definitely a weakness of mine
The bigger time frames looks like a retracement and 30minutes looks like a reversal ... but, who knows, maybe the 1hour will eventually look like a reversal, which i'm hoping for ...
  • #7,845
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:53pm Jun 11, 2008 6:53pm
Suggestion:

IF in doubt about the Trend....zoom out your charts.

Its like stepping outside the box...sort of ...heres a chart

15 minute TF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.png Size: 16 KB
  • #7,846
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:56pm Jun 11, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting pipmac
Suggestion:

IF in doubt about the Trend....zoom out your charts.

Its like stepping outside the box...sort of ...heres a chart

15 minute TF
Such a simple but effective way!
I didn't think about that - especially because I'm a short term trader on the 5,15,30 charts. zooming out really does help!! Thanks
  • #7,847
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:59pm Jun 11, 2008 6:59pm
Quoting dwildes
Such a simple but effective way!
I didn't think about that - especially because I'm a short term trader on the 5,15,30 charts. zooming out really does help!! Thanks
Took your advice...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aml39.JPG Size: 67 KB
  • #7,848
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:02pm Jun 11, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting dwildes
Such a simple but effective way!
I didn't think about that - especially because I'm a short term trader on the 5,15,30 charts. zooming out really does help!! Thanks

I'm glad it helps you!

The 5 minute zoomed chart suggests a trend change

But if you look at the 15 zoomed, you know its just a retracement

5 minute UJ zoomed below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.png Size: 26 KB
  • #7,849
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:07pm Jun 11, 2008 7:07pm
One thing you should focus on is anything lower than a 20 minute chart is for scalping of 6 - 10 pips ..... if you are looking at 20 or more pips then the upper time frames is where you need to be.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,850
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:22pm Jun 11, 2008 7:22pm
The daily chart candle stick suggests some downward pressure.

How much remains to be seen. My guestimate is 50-100 pips down from current price level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.png Size: 11 KB
  • #7,851
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:25pm Jun 11, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting pipmac
The daily chart candle stick suggests some downward pressure.

How much remains to be seen. My guestimate is 50-100 pips down from current price level.
That would be good ...
  • #7,852
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:26pm Jun 11, 2008 7:26pm
This is what's happening right now...... it is riding between two pivots..... The daily pivot (PP) at 107.08 and the mid (M2) at 106.75...... You also have your two BB's - one on the daily and the other on the mid......Witch way it breaks is the movement for the night..... This is on the 30 minute chart.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,853
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:31pm Jun 11, 2008 7:31pm
Quoting dove_alliance
One thing you should focus on is anything lower than a 20 minute chart is for scalping of 6 - 10 pips ..... if you are looking at 20 or more pips then the upper time frames is where you need to be.
Very good point!
  • #7,854
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:43pm Jun 11, 2008 7:43pm
From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Snippet:

Posted On: Wednesday, June 11, 2008, 6:46:00 PM EST
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
A New Level Of Financial Incredulous
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif



Dear CIGAs,
Yesterday was the equivalent of a Mt. Everest summiting when it comes to financial incredulous.

  1. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve checkmated himself in a rather self-destructive manner. If he raises the discount rate by ¼ point, the impact on the credit market problems will be to tear back the curtain of silence, exposing the reality of a continuous debacle. If he fails to raise rates the dollar will tank. If he raises rates and that event is factored into the dollar it will be meaningless. Knowing no further increases are possible, the dollar will rally and reverse downward, turning in a negative day immediately or in overnight US trading.
  2. The market in gold and silver yesterday was completely a product of the "24 Points" of how the metals dealers (COT) work. Today the INCREDULOUS was seen as the Dow peeled off 200 plus points, sending a message past the Fed directly to the White House. There may be a trip to the shed for the entire Federal Reserve Board.
  3. Rather than a reduction of risk to the economy as outlined in four major addresses yesterday, the fall off in consumer demand will challenge the 1930s. You can bank on that. That is quite bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold if the nitwits that comment publicly would take one minute and review the Formula.
  4. The gold price was a fishing line yesterday and will shortly take the form of a Rhino Horn.
  5. The price of gold will reach $1200 in 2008.
  6. Gold will rise to at least $1650 by January 14th, 2011

{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,855
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:54pm Jun 11, 2008 7:54pm
The name of the game in this market is complete focus on the moment..... Having the right tools to keep you focus..... Always remember - there is not a living soul that can predict the next move in this market...... Even the world's greatest traders can do that..... Buy they can give summaries of what they see in the charts and 90% of the time, they are right.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,856
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:56pm Jun 11, 2008 7:56pm
Quoting Warren Forex
From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Snippet:

Posted On: Wednesday, June 11, 2008, 6:46:00 PM EST
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
A New Level Of Financial Incredulous
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif
Author: Jim Sinclair
http://www.jsmineset.com/spacer.gif



Dear CIGAs,
Yesterday was the equivalent of a Mt. Everest summiting when it comes to financial incredulous.

  1. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve checkmated himself in a rather self-destructive manner. If he raises the discount rate by ¼ point, the impact on the credit market problems will be to tear back the curtain of silence, exposing the reality of a continuous debacle. If he fails to raise rates the dollar will tank. If he raises rates and that event is factored into the dollar it will be meaningless. Knowing no further increases are possible, the dollar will rally and reverse downward, turning in a negative day immediately or in overnight US trading.
  2. The market in gold and silver yesterday was completely a product of the "24 Points" of how the metals dealers (COT) work. Today the INCREDULOUS was seen as the Dow peeled off 200 plus points, sending a message past the Fed directly to the White House. There may be a trip to the shed for the entire Federal Reserve Board.
  3. Rather than a reduction of risk to the economy as outlined in four major addresses yesterday, the fall off in consumer demand will challenge the 1930s. You can bank on that. That is quite bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold if the nitwits that comment publicly would take one minute and review the Formula.
  4. The gold price was a fishing line yesterday and will shortly take the form of a Rhino Horn.
  5. The price of gold will reach $1200 in 2008.
  6. Gold will rise to at least $1650 by January 14th, 2011


Just curous.....How does a forex trader make money from that information. Merely somebodies opinion about where gold is going?

I understand that the US economy is in bad shape. BUT it CAN get better. OR maybe its not AS BAD as people write.

Just because somebody can talk about where the economy is heading doesn't mean they can make money in the markets.

I've got a headache from all the BS ive been reading about how bad things are. It's all designed to screw with your head.
  • #7,857
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:01pm Jun 11, 2008 8:01pm
Quoting pipmac
Just curous.....How does a forex trader make money from that information. Merely somebodies opinion about where gold is going?

I understand that the US economy is in bad shape. BUT it CAN get better. OR maybe its not AS BAD as people write.

Just because somebody can talk about where the economy is heading doesn't mean they can make money in the markets.
Maybe perception ???
  • #7,858
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:04pm Jun 11, 2008 8:04pm
Quoting dove_alliance
This is what's happening right now...... it is riding between two pivots..... The daily pivot (PP) at 107.08 and the mid (M2) at 106.75...... You also have your two BB's - one on the daily and the other on the mid......Witch way it breaks is the movement for the night..... This is on the 30 minute chart.
We went all the way up to 107.07 and now back to 106.95.
Maybe going to retest 107.08 and push through?
  • #7,859
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:05pm Jun 11, 2008 8:05pm
Quoting Schminner
Maybe perception ???
I'm rather focus on reality

ADD:

The reality is that the UJ has rallied over 1000 pips while everybody is
shouting doomsday.
  • #7,860
  • Jun 11, 2008 8:13pm Jun 11, 2008 8:13pm
Market moving news in Australia at 7:30 MST (in 15 minutes)
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