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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,781
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:39am Jun 11, 2008 1:39am
maybe i'm crazy or maybe i'm craaaazy...

BUT, if the FED will raise rates in the future. Assuming the next move is a rate hike. Assuming investing is about being ahead of the curve. Assuming that the US economy is not going to crash. Let's go long now and exit when the FED is 50% finsished with raising rates.

Would you make money?? Who knows i might experiment.
  • #7,782
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:39am Jun 11, 2008 1:39am
i had sell option at 106.8 .....

any chance that yen will go back today?
  • #7,783
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:40am Jun 11, 2008 1:40am
Quote
WE as traders would be better off not reading that junk at all.
Yes, yes, and yes! I even stopped listening to "professional currency analysts". Some are ok, but you have to be very careful. Don't forget many of them don't trade to make money... they have jobs: analyzing currencies.
  • #7,784
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:42am Jun 11, 2008 1:42am
Quoting fxterrapin
Pipmac,

Perhaps the talk of shorting is the anticipation of such? Whether this rally is a bull trap or not will come out when/if Bernanke puts his words into action. The fact that the JPY crosses have disconnected from the equities market should be the mother of all red flags. I am not saying that the long rally will stop (it could indeed be that the bottom of many carry pairs was reached in March). I, for one, am staying out of it.

And yes, these group movements can be hard to combat emotionally. Stick to your guns. If you are wrong, then at least you are wrong for your own reasons.

fxterrapin

Anticipation is the same thing as planning is the same thing as doing....almost but close enough
  • #7,785
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:43am Jun 11, 2008 1:43am
Quoting pipmac
maybe i'm crazy or maybe i'm craaaazy...

BUT, if the FED will raise rates in the future. Assuming the next move is a rate hike. Assuming investing is about being ahead of the curve. Assuming that the US economy is not going to crash. Let's go long now and exit when the FED is 50% finsished with raising rates.

Would you make money?? Who knows i might experiment.
I thought you didn't base your trading on fundamentals.
  • #7,786
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:46am Jun 11, 2008 1:46am
Quoting fxterrapin
I thought you didn't base your trading on fundamentals.

hahah interesting point.

The problem with fundies is that by the time we respond to the, the market has already priced it in.
  • #7,787
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:53am Jun 11, 2008 1:53am
Quoting sheraz
i had sell option at 106.8 .....

any chance that yen will go back today?

I see this going to 106.50 if it breaks 107.30 which is below the recent spike up.
  • #7,788
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:00am Jun 11, 2008 2:00am
Quoting pipmac
hahah interesting point.

The problem with fundies is that by the time we respond to the, the market has already priced it in.
I'm not completely convinced of this. Until news is actually announced, there is a probability distribution of outcomes and the price shifts in the direction of the news. You might reasonably argue that by the time of the announcement, on average, your expected return will be zero by guessing which way it will go. However, I'm not convinced that, if you do some of your own research, you can end up on the winning side of the news more often than not.

This only applies to short term news etc. Longer term trading certainly allows a clear view of fundies to make you money, as there often seems to be a lot of denial about bad news, so the markets don't price it all in properly, IMPO.
  • #7,789
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:00am Jun 11, 2008 2:00am
Quoting pipmac
Anticipation is the same thing as planning is the same thing as doing....almost but close enough
I hear you, but it's those who an anticipate or plan the end or beginning of a trend that profit. That's what EWT is all about.
  • #7,790
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:03am Jun 11, 2008 2:03am
Quoting pipmac
I see this going to 106.50 if it breaks 107.30 which is below the recent spike up.

it breaks from 107.7
  • #7,791
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:06am Jun 11, 2008 2:06am
Quoting Spectator
I'm not completely convinced of this. Until news is actually announced, there is a probability distribution of outcomes and the price shifts in the direction of the news. You might reasonably argue that by the time of the announcement, on average, your expected return will be zero by guessing which way it will go. However, I'm not convinced that, if you do some of your own research, you can end up on the winning side of the news more often than not.

This only applies to short term news etc. Longer term trading certainly allows a clear view of fundies to make you money, as there often seems to be a lot of denial about bad news, so the markets don't price it all in properly, IMPO.
Some news will create price swings but rarely if ever is the trend initiated at the time of the release.

With expection to BOE suprise hike. Which ive witness to create a reasonalbly extended move.

MY point is that...A USD rate hike will be priced into the market be4 it is realeased.

By the time we had conclusive evidence that our banks were in trouble (bear stern) The dow had bottomed.
  • #7,792
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:22am Jun 11, 2008 2:22am
107.5 and falling, ADX says that DI+ is much stronger than -DI, CCI under 0 and RSI under 50
Quoting sheraz
it breaks from 107.7
  • #7,793
  • Edited 2:47am Jun 11, 2008 2:25am | Edited 2:47am
Quoting pipmac
By the time we had conclusive evidence that our banks were in trouble (bear stern) The dow had bottomed.
Sure...but this is slightly different from using fundamentals to inform your trading decisions. We knew before February last year that Bear was late getting in to the CDO party. We knew in the UK that Northern Rock had VERY dodgy lending practices...they told us about them on billboards and on television (125% loans etc.). One forum I frequent had been pointing out NR as an almost certain bust a year before it happened. They were always going to be 2 of the early casualties. Once it became clear that strife was eventuating, they were obvious shorting targets over periods of months, not days.

There is a lot of fundamental information out there that can be used to place good bets on the market. You also have to read between the lines. I recall when Bear made an announcement that all was okay a couple of weeks before it went belly up. My immediate thought was, things must be dire if they have to say that, time to short. My general view is that the market prices in short term news rather well, but often diverges from clear, unavoidable long term trends. I'm not much of a fan of the perfect market hypothesis as you can probably tell.

(edit) Caveat: by the time you hear it on main stream media, then it is too late. I sold a portion of my gold holdings the moment it was talked about on the 6 o'clock news.
  • #7,794
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:26am Jun 11, 2008 2:26am
Quoting aditzas
107.5 and falling, ADX says that DI+ is much stronger than -DI, CCI under 0 and RSI under 50

It it breaks below 107.30 it could leave a huge wick or inverted hammer on the 4H TM ....i'm way ahead of myself..just something to watch for.
  • #7,795
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:39am Jun 11, 2008 2:39am
Quoting pipmac
It it breaks below 107.30 it could leave a huge wick or inverted hammer on the 4H TM ....i'm way ahead of myself..just something to watch for.
what is interesting that now 107.39, and falling, MACD STR EMA for M1-M30 are showing falls, but ADX (14)=45 so strong , has -DI weeker, and +DI 20 and 30, so ... I don't get it ...
  • #7,796
  • Jun 11, 2008 2:55am Jun 11, 2008 2:55am
Quoting aditzas
what is interesting that now 107.39, and falling, MACD STR EMA for M1-M30 are showing falls, but ADX (14)=45 so strong , has -DI weeker, and +DI 20 and 30, so ... I don't get it ...

Wierd...undecided i guess..Its finding support at 107.40ish. Could go higher now
  • #7,797
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:03am Jun 11, 2008 3:03am
For those who trade other pairs...Eur/CAD has strong support around 1.5650-1.5680

The pair pair is appoaching it right now. Something else to trade if UJ stays quiet...Night all GL
  • #7,798
  • Jun 11, 2008 3:38am Jun 11, 2008 3:38am
my hopes for this pair is a retracement to the 38% fib level...

IF IT STARTS DROPPING OF COURSE
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  • #7,799
  • Jun 11, 2008 6:10am Jun 11, 2008 6:10am
I'm looking for a solid short term break of 107.30 to enter a short position. Initial take profit at 107.05 then 106.80. Of course they may never happen because this pair just seems very stubborn right now.
  • #7,800
  • Jun 11, 2008 7:03am Jun 11, 2008 7:03am
This is a tough area. There are quite a few areas of S/R, from 107.30 all the way up to 108.30, which is the biggest resistance level. I'd definitely expect price to retrace off 108.30 if it makes it all the way there.
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