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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,761
  • Jun 10, 2008 11:47pm Jun 10, 2008 11:47pm
I have one question:

Why would anyone go against the trend? The trend is still up but traders went short........ That sure doesn't make any sense to me.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,762
  • Edited Jun 11, 2008 12:04am Jun 10, 2008 11:52pm | Edited Jun 11, 2008 12:04am
Quoting dove_alliance
I have one question:

Why would anyone go against the trend? The trend is still up but traders went short........ That sure doesn't make any sense to me.
If we're gonna follow the trend up...I think the most rational trade would be a long at retracement to 105.70-106 area.

I'll add a chart to this post in a minute to explain what i'm looking at.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjyp.png Size: 25 KB
  • #7,763
  • Jun 10, 2008 11:53pm Jun 10, 2008 11:53pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I have one question:

Why would anyone go against the trend? The trend is still up but traders went short........ That sure doesn't make any sense to me.
I guess we figure who is left to buy after 2.5 solid up days. :-)
With that said, I closed my short I had and went long at 107.63 - It looks to be heading towards up to R1 at 107.78
  • #7,764
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:10am Jun 11, 2008 12:10am
Hi

Heres how I see things....

Daily Chart
Squeeze has fired "long" which may indicate further upside. Would look to buy on a pullback towards 106.00.... or... if breaks higher through my channel top would wait/re-assess price action looking for an entry level.


60 min Chart
This is an automated "stop and reverse" strategy that is currently long from 105.24
1st target met (+200 pips)
2 Lots open

(I use this strategy on 5 Jpy pairs/time frames. All are currently still long...just waited for last hr bar to close to see if this is still valid)


Discretionary Methods
Awaiting set-up/signal...My indicators/price bars are green , so will be to the long side.




Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdJpy Daily.jpg Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdJpy 60min FLOW auto 2.jpg Size: 90 KB
.....Go with the FLOW.....
  • #7,765
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:17am Jun 11, 2008 12:17am
Quoting pipmac
If we're gonna follow the trend up...I think the most rational trade would be a long at retracement to 105.70-106 area.

I'll add a chart to this post in a minute to explain what i'm looking at.
Your logic is good but backwards........ Support and resistance is mostly played on your weekly charts and the trends are on your daily....... The 1 hour chart is where you should be looking for placement of focus when it comes to re-tracements. You have a mid pivot at the 42 and it went sideways on that pivot from the 17:00 ET and remain in the trend and then finally broke loose and took the shot up.
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,766
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:22am Jun 11, 2008 12:22am
I did not see any new annoucement sheduled for today, still almost all the carry pairs just spiked up and came back down.... what happened?
  • #7,767
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:27am Jun 11, 2008 12:27am
Quoting rudenstein
I did not see any new annoucement sheduled for today, still almost all the carry pairs just spiked up and came back down.... what happened?
What happen is the pound and the eur is waiting for the yen to kiss the R1 at the 83 and then we will some action.......... smiling........
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,768
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:28am Jun 11, 2008 12:28am
Quoting rudenstein
I did not see any new annoucement sheduled for today, still almost all the carry pairs just spiked up and came back down.... what happened?
This type of price move is often followed by a reversal at the frankfurt or london open.

Could be a stop hunt or something just a wild guess
  • #7,769
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:35am Jun 11, 2008 12:35am
Quoting dove_alliance
I have one question:

Why would anyone go against the trend? The trend is still up but traders went short........ That sure doesn't make any sense to me.
Was too much fundamentals writing, not enough candlestick action.
2 poz L @ 105. 30 1 poz L@ 106.60
  • #7,770
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:37am Jun 11, 2008 12:37am
Quoting dove_alliance
What happen is the pound and the eur is waiting for the yen to kiss the R1 at the 83 and then we will some action.......... smiling........
Seriously, no fundie reason?
  • #7,771
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:38am Jun 11, 2008 12:38am
Quoting stanru
Was too much fundamentals writing, not enough candlestick action.
2 poz L @ 105. 30 1 poz L@ 106.60
Yea, I can understand that........
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,772
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:39am Jun 11, 2008 12:39am
Quoting rudenstein
Seriously, no fundie reason?
None-what-so-ever................
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,773
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:47am Jun 11, 2008 12:47am
I don't understand how anybody can make money trading fundamentals in the forex market moves.

I can understand buying gold (physical gold not etf) for fundamental reasons or holding a stock long term.

All this fundamental talk about the UJ falling to the pits of hell all seems more like a bunch of BS considering where it has gone since....
  • #7,774
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:49am Jun 11, 2008 12:49am
Quoting pipmac
I don't understand how anybody can make money trading fundamentals in the forex market moves.

I can understand buying gold (physical gold not etf) for fundamental reasons or holding a stock long term.

All this fundamental talk about the UJ falling to the pits of hell all seems more like a bunch of BS considering where it has gone since....
I 100% agree
  • #7,775
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:50am Jun 11, 2008 12:50am
Quoting dove_alliance
None-what-so-ever................
What about Likanen mouthing off? That's what probably caused the spike. Just because you don't see it on FF doesn't mean it isn't happening.
  • #7,776
  • Jun 11, 2008 12:57am Jun 11, 2008 12:57am
so please (i won't mention names) spare us the egotistic bullcrap about where price is going because anybody that clutters their mind with every other trading idea or fundamental article found on the web (or CNNBC or bloomberg or anyother BS media talk) is loosing their shorts in forex...
  • #7,777
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:04am Jun 11, 2008 1:04am
Quoting pipmac
I don't understand how anybody can make money trading fundamentals in the forex market moves.

I can understand buying gold (physical gold not etf) for fundamental reasons or holding a stock long term.

All this fundamental talk about the UJ falling to the pits of hell all seems more like a bunch of BS considering where it has gone since....
My thoughts were, at the end of last year, that we would have a lot of market turmoil in January to March, and if there were no major bank collapses etc., we would have the current bull trap in the markets, with gold and silver pulling back, the stock markets recovering somewhat, before the next, more serious wave hits sometime in late summer, or autumn. At that point I expect the USD and GBP (the later my main focus) to suffer rather badly. So far it has played out rather as I expected.

On the ground in the UK it is clear that we are heading into a recession. Houses prices are beginning to collapse and owners with high LTV are beginning to fret (I know this as we are being booted out of our rental as the owner wants to sell...and half the rentals we have been looking at have owners only wanting 6 month contracts - i.e. they are wanting to be able to sell and get rid of the tenants as quickly as possible.) Together with increased commodity prices and tightening credit conditions, we are heading for a clear HPC and a concomitant recession. Once the feedback loop starts, it will be hard to stop, especially if they try to defend the currency by raising interest rates...it will only make matters worse in the long run. They have painted themselves into a corner.

Anyhow, on a day to day basis you are correct...for intraday trading the broad fundamentals aren't going to help much...and there has been a pull back from the falls in the first quarter of the year, but on longer time frames I think the fundamentals point down. (This is of course taking the Yen as a fixed target, which it is not.)

Having said that, it is possible to have more accurate beliefs about the fundamentals than the markets. I did rather well trading daily prenews based on my belief that the analysts were going to be generally too optimistic this year. Similarly, I placed some large long term trades (on the order of 2 months) on currency, white goods and real estate based on the clear change in shopping behaviour from the usual Xmas crush2007 which paid off handsomely (and would have paid off even better if I had had the discipline not to cash them in early :-( ).

Finally, with respect to gold, one has to be expecting armageddon to view buying gold any differently from currency, shares or other commodities. (Yes, I do have a small physical stash!)
  • #7,778
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:08am Jun 11, 2008 1:08am
Quoting pipmac
so please (i won't mention names) spare us the egotistic bullcrap about where price is going because anybody that clutters their mind with every other trading idea or fundamental article found on the web (or CNNBC or bloomberg or anyother BS media talk) is loosing their shorts in forex...
Oh, I agree. I avoid news events and fundies (sometimes you can't) like the plague! I was just pointing out that the spike in a few pairs may not have been caused by stop hunting, but rather by an unannounced comment by an ECB board member. At breakfast no less.
  • #7,779
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:24am Jun 11, 2008 1:24am
Isn't it a little amusing how the market is responding to all the talk about shorting. If you go back in this post 2-3 weeks you will mostly find posts about going short.

The wierd thing is that i was completely convinced, emotionally and otherwise. It's hard to explain but the emotion in the masses is unconsciously transfered to the group reading the information. WE as traders would be better off not reading that junk at all.

FOR EXAMPLE: The underlying market/trader sentiment just before the Dow started declining the from it's highs was NOT SHORT at all!

When this recent correction was in the works the market sentiment reflected and still reflects in the posts here on FF is SHORT!! And where is the market going...UP!

The market discounts the future. So, by the time the emotion or the sentiment transfers to us, it's to late. The market may very well be starting to price in the rate increases that are coming next.
  • #7,780
  • Jun 11, 2008 1:35am Jun 11, 2008 1:35am
Pipmac,

Perhaps the talk of shorting is the anticipation of such? Whether this rally is a bull trap or not will come out when/if Bernanke puts his words into action. The fact that the JPY crosses have disconnected from the equities market should be the mother of all red flags. I am not saying that the long rally will stop (it could indeed be that the bottom of many carry pairs was reached in March). I, for one, am staying out of it.

And yes, these group movements can be hard to combat emotionally. Stick to your guns. If you are wrong, then at least you are wrong for your own reasons.

fxterrapin

Quoting pipmac
Isn't it a little amusing how the market is responding to all the talk about shorting. If you go back in this post 2-3 weeks you will mostly find posts about going short.

The wierd thing is that i was completely convinced, emotionally and otherwise. It's hard to explain but the emotion in the masses is unconsciously transfered to the group reading the information. WE as traders would be better off not reading that junk at all.

FOR EXAMPLE: The underlying market/trader sentiment just before the Dow started declining the from it's highs was NOT SHORT at all!

When this recent correction was in the works the market sentiment reflected and still reflects in the posts here on FF is SHORT!! And where is the market going...UP!
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