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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,741
  • Jun 10, 2008 4:58pm Jun 10, 2008 4:58pm
I have a better idea, I'll give access to 2 of my live accounts for both traders. Whichever trader makes me the most money wins the game and declared victorious .....
  • #7,742
  • Jun 10, 2008 5:17pm Jun 10, 2008 5:17pm
Quoting Ron3226
My thought is, if he is not willing to teach his system then his motive for all of the posting of calls must be something else, perhaps it's to stroke his EPEEN.
Actually he was willing, and many FF members took him up on the offer, myself included.

Now can we all just get back to discussing USD/JPY? No need for posts on teaching traders, money management, needless arguments, pretty much every post from Warren/Bruce (no offense), etc. This thread is for USD/JPY discussion. Out of the last 30 posts, there were roughly 1 or 2 that discussed USD/JPY..
  • #7,743
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:18pm Jun 10, 2008 6:18pm
Quoting Ron3226
Here I'll save you the trouble, find attached the posts, and the charts.

Ah well, enjoy the posts and charts. Ron.
Quoting dove_alliance
OK- At this time I had taken down the charts because I do not want them to end up where they are not suppose to be..... I hope everyone understand..... Everyone should had the time to see them.....
Dude, checking the dates on those images you just reloaded into the attachment bin shows you just reposted something that did not belong to you against the wishes of the author.

This is EXACTLY where we all were 10-11 months ago on this thread. Some guy named kreepy or something did EXACTLY the same thing...

Dove, please pm me if you move to a new thread. Done here. Again.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #7,744
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:22pm Jun 10, 2008 6:22pm
Dove i am glad to see you back here you are the reason I am here and have been trading successful for the last 6 months. I tried to follow you over to the other board but could not. Now Bruce I have also learned a lot from you. I believe we all bring knowledge and know how to help others be successful. Lets just all get along and help everyone make money in this market. Thanks to both of you for helping me.........
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #7,745
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:38pm Jun 10, 2008 6:38pm
I am short 107.43, stop loss 107.52, target 107.15 (107.05 - daily pivot minus 10 pips to be safe)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,746
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:42pm Jun 10, 2008 6:42pm
Quoting Firstboss
I am short 107.43, stop loss 107.52, target 107.15 (107.05 - daily pivot minus 10 pips to be safe)
I am in on the exact same trade, good luck!!!!
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #7,747
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:50pm Jun 10, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting pipmac
SuperV900

The UJ and the EU do not correlate.

If you pull up the daily chart on both pairs they look nothing alike.

The only correlation that occurs between the two is strength or weekness in the dollar index.

If the dollar is strong then most of the time U/J moves up while EU moves down. That correlation is due to the "U" (usd) factor shared by both pairs.

Hummm, on the hour charts they seen to almost exactly 180 out from each other. Just wondered if one moves faster than the other.
  • #7,748
  • Jun 10, 2008 6:52pm Jun 10, 2008 6:52pm
Quoting wheelsut
I am in on the exact same trade, good luck!!!!
Great! Looks like we are on the right track already :-)
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,749
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:01pm Jun 10, 2008 7:01pm
Quoting Firstboss
Great! Looks like we are on the right track already :-)
I hope so, as I'm already in Shorts for the past few days ....
  • #7,750
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:04pm Jun 10, 2008 7:04pm
Good luck, Schminner, but it might not go that low... Watch the 107.05 pivot
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,751
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:38pm Jun 10, 2008 7:38pm
As long as the 5-minute candles close below the daily open (107.43) our shorts are safe. I added more at 107.42 for 6-pips scalping. Stop-loss must be very tight now, though
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,752
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:07pm Jun 10, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting Firstboss
As long as the 5-minute candles close below the daily open (107.43) our shorts are safe. I added more at 107.42 for 6-pips scalping. Stop-loss must be very tight now, though

Hey Firstboss, just curious as to how you came about the pivot being at 107.05. Do you calculate yourself or does the broker provide the info? I downloaded the Daily Pivot indicator for MT4 from IBFX and right now it reads 107.00.

I'd hate to disagree with you guys about the short position, but just looking at my chart briefly, it sure looks like this pair will carry up further. Best of luck.
  • #7,753
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:29pm Jun 10, 2008 8:29pm
DirtySerb,

Yes, if it breaks 107.43 it will continue further, that's why the very tight stop loss!
As for the pivots everyone (including the built-in indicators) uses the same formula (High+Low+Close)/3
Discrepancies occur because of different spreads of the brokers behind the particular charting software. Also, usind Bid vs Ask for the basis of the chart will give a different number.

For today I have High @ 107.43, Low @106.22, Close @ 107.42

As for calculation I created a table in Excel that calculates the pivots based on Hi-Lo-Close, then I copy it to Word with 7 other currency pairs on the same page and print them out every day.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,754
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:59pm Jun 10, 2008 8:59pm
Quoting TheDirtySerb
Hey Firstboss, just curious as to how you came about the pivot being at 107.05. Do you calculate yourself or does the broker provide the info? I downloaded the Daily Pivot indicator for MT4 from IBFX and right now it reads 107.00.

I'd hate to disagree with you guys about the short position, but just looking at my chart briefly, it sure looks like this pair will carry up further. Best of luck.
It's because of time discrepancies with your brokerages. IBFX goes by GMT and the closing daily price is whatever it is at 11:59PM (or 8:59PM New York time, well after market closes) so the new daily bar begins at 12AM. Firstboss' charts have the day ending at 4:59PM New York time so the new daily opens at 5PM (9PM GMT). There's a discrepancy because you two are using totally different data sets to calculate the pivots.

The correct way is based on the 5PM close because it is the end of the complete trading day - from Toyko to NY. If you wait to open the daily bar at 12AM GMT, you catch the beginning part of the Asian session.
  • #7,755
  • Jun 10, 2008 9:08pm Jun 10, 2008 9:08pm
TheGunSlinger, very nice clarification, I haven't thought of that! Yes, 5 p.m. EST is the correct time for daily quotes.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,756
  • Jun 10, 2008 9:13pm Jun 10, 2008 9:13pm
Thanks guys, appreciate the clarification.
  • #7,757
  • Jun 10, 2008 9:22pm Jun 10, 2008 9:22pm
Is anybody else short this pair right now and if so how far do you think it will go?
  • #7,758
  • Jun 10, 2008 9:25pm Jun 10, 2008 9:25pm
USDJPY
1 DAY AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
- Engulfing Bullish Line Confirmation: Bullish & Overbought
- Bullish Trending Candle takes over: Buy Signal

2 DAYS AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Engulfing Bullish Line: Buy Signal

3 DAYS AGO CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
--- Engulfing Bearish Line: Aggressive Sell Signal


CURRENT CANDLESTICK SIGNAL (up to the time of posting)
- White Upper Shadow:The Engulfing line pattern which is the flagship of an uptrend is still in place. However the Stochastic %k is over 60%, the market trend might be weaken.
  • #7,759
  • Edited 10:28pm Jun 10, 2008 9:34pm | Edited 10:28pm
Quoting Pb53chevy
Is anybody else short this pair right now and if so how far do you think it will go?
I may do so when:

"the proper way to use stochastic is to observe the indicator once it has entered the overbought or oversold zone. Only when the indicator slips back below 80 or moves up above 20 does the trader follow the signal. Stochastics essentially measure momentum, and a break of the 80 line or a rally through the 20 line would indicate that buying or selling momentum has ceased and the trader is offered a high-probability directional trade."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Daily 10June.png Size: 106 KB
  • #7,760
  • Jun 10, 2008 11:24pm Jun 10, 2008 11:24pm
I can't wait anymore for Europe to wake up - I am too sleepy. Closing my short at 107.40.
I still expect the price to briefly touch the daily pivot (107.05) or at least mid-pivot (107.23), and then reverse towards 108.
Once it breaks through 107.43 the immediate resistance is the weekly R1 (107.63) and the daily R1 (107.86).
Good luck all
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
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