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  • #581
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:06pm Jun 9, 2008 10:06pm
I've been going over this thread and your examples to try and glean as much as I can. Up until now I've been marking your predictions BRV, on my charts and am impressed with the accuracy of them.
I've got a couple of questions if you don't mind.
How far back do you go to find support and resistance, do you look at weekly charts and do a top down? How many pairs do you look at? Do you use pivots or just consider them as sup/res that is already there?
Thanks, bogus
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #582
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:11pm Jun 9, 2008 10:11pm
Short EUR/GBP .8198 - .8248

Nuts, anyone? Massive range BECAUSE its a massive trade. Throw it in the "save me" account and let it ride until the end of the year. Again lets get technical here and the EXACT number of the 76.4 retracement is .8231; however, support and resistance is seen as early as .8198. MY opinion? Scale into the position starting at .8200 and if any moves higher be prepared for some drawdown up to .8249. Most likely price will see the higher portion of the range, and could even hit the retracement level right on the nose before it declines.
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  • #583
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:18pm Jun 9, 2008 10:18pm
Quoting bogus
I've been going over this thread and your examples to try and glean as much as I can. Up until now I've been marking your predictions BRV, on my charts and am impressed with the accuracy of them.
I've got a couple of questions if you don't mind.
How far back do you go to find support and resistance, do you look at weekly charts and do a top down? How many pairs do you look at? Do you use pivots or just consider them as sup/res that is already there?
Thanks, bogus
I go back as long as it takes. The recent high on AUD/USD I predicted using support and resistance which hasn't been seen since 1984; thats 24 years ago! Please read the post a few pages back (the really long one that used to be on the other thread) it will probably give you some answers. Heres the link...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=443
  • #584
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:22pm Jun 9, 2008 10:22pm
cool. thanks BRV
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #585
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:22pm Jun 9, 2008 10:22pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Crap, what a mess. Yeah I know, but in regards to your question, 1.0130 looks like the next logical place for longs on USDCHF. Its a .50 wave retracement from the largest pullback and also holds some historical support/resistance significance. Not the best, but its there.

Same story with the 2 lower levels. See what I mean? If E=mc2 was so easy why should this junk be any different?

I lost my crystal ball and the local psychic is on vacation in Miami so this chart will have to do for now.
Hey BRV,

Thanks for the previous reply on how you differenciate real S&R levels from the "posers". I was going to post a note in response but decided to refrain as it would just be clutter. It is safe to assume there is a lot of gratitude from everyone who reads this thread including myself!

A quick question on the chart you posted with the above quote. I find that on smaller timeframes there are more visible levels of s&r and when you zoom back out to the 4h you get many very close to each other. In this case, the three all around the top of that chart. What do you do if the price apporoachs one with an order already running, and if no order is running which level do you use? Basically, how do you know which one is the highest percentage set up between those?

Thanks so much!
  • #586
  • Jun 9, 2008 10:28pm Jun 9, 2008 10:28pm
Quoting renegade7
Hey BRV,

Thanks for the previous reply on how you differenciate real S&R levels from the "posers". I was going to post a note in response but decided to refrain as it would just be clutter. It is safe to assume there is a lot of gratitude from everyone who reads this thread including myself!

A quick question on the chart you posted with the above quote. I find that on smaller timeframes there are more visible levels of s&r and when you zoom back out to the 4h you get many very close to each other. In this case, the three all around the top of that chart. What do you do if the price apporoachs one with an order already running, and if no order is running which level do you use? Basically, how do you know which one is the highest percentage set up between those?

Thanks so much!
You don't know. Look for strength, and set your stop loss below the next level. That CHF top level was the strongest as far as price and s/r was concerned, hence the post. 30 pip drawdown on a high probability setup like that would have allowed you to buy again at the lower level and cut your risk when you breakeven on the 1st entry. S/R rules, everything else comes secondary, including fibs, etc.
  • #587
  • Jun 10, 2008 12:16am Jun 10, 2008 12:16am
Quoting rav700
A lot of people are short here based on 15 m triple top...watch for stop hunters mate......
Well, there goes that S/R for the moment. My call was based on tops showing for the last 3 days on the hourly chart, and the more immediate tops showing on the 15 minute chart. I set a tight stop and went to bed - it cost me 12 pips.

There are still signs that this is over-bought, so maybe a pullback is due, but the trend appears to be up for the time being with the next major S/R somewhere in the 107.50 to 108.50 area (daily chart).

Back to the day-job.
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #588
  • Jun 10, 2008 12:57am Jun 10, 2008 12:57am
Quoting Mary Pippins
If the Kiwi can crawl down to this level I'd expect a decent bounce, though I find it hard to narrow the entry further down that shown on the pic.

Any ideas anyone?
I went long on this last night with a stop under the day's low. As you will see it did not hold up.

There is a definite down trend on this pair now. The fundamentals are starting to show this with recent comments from the RBNZ in their rate setting statement last Wednesday night (UK time).

Depending upon which chart you view there is no support until .7500 or .7400.
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #589
  • Jun 10, 2008 1:00am Jun 10, 2008 1:00am
Long EUR/USD 1.5484 area

No brainer....BUT the level has been used and abused for some time now. Heads up.
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  • #590
  • Jun 10, 2008 1:09am Jun 10, 2008 1:09am
Billy Ray, nice thread you have here, thank you. A question: do you use trendlines at all, as dynamic S&R levels? Here's an example.

R

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  • #591
  • Jun 10, 2008 1:20am Jun 10, 2008 1:20am
Quoting Rocroy
Billy Ray, nice thread you have here, thank you. A question: do you use trendlines at all, as dynamic S&R levels? Here's an example.

R

Attachment
Hi Rocroy, I dont like to take trades based soley on diagonal trendlines due to the ambiguity on how to draw them. If there is an obvious one that coincides with a horizontal s/r line then I'll take it into consideration, but playing diagonal trendlines soley has simply hurt me enough not to go back to it.

Like last night the bottom on USDJPY was a combination of horizontal support and a diagonal tl. In a case like that sure. But always looking for the horizontal support first.

That diagonal line to me is just an accessory, like a pair of earrings; the 20 karat stud around the neck is the horizontal support.

I saw some instructional video taking a look at CHF from a well known investment bank. The very next day they changed the trendline to match whatever happened next, and price, quite predictably, blew right through it because no one else was looking at it that way. Bad karma.
  • #592
  • Jun 10, 2008 1:20am Jun 10, 2008 1:20am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/GBP .8198 - .8248

Nuts, anyone? Massive range BECAUSE its a massive trade. Throw it in the "save me" account and let it ride until the end of the year. Again lets get technical here and the EXACT number of the 76.4 retracement is .8231; however, support and resistance is seen as early as .8198. MY opinion? Scale into the position starting at .8200 and if any moves higher be prepared for some drawdown up to .8249. Most likely price will see the higher portion of the range, and could even hit the retracement level right on the nose before it declines.
I like this one! However I have a question for you. With the UK economy going into reverse, and the EZ economy seeming to be strong, would you factor any of that into your thinking or do you just read the charts?

Thanks
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #593
  • Jun 10, 2008 1:38am Jun 10, 2008 1:38am
Quoting Primate
I like this one! However I have a question for you. With the UK economy going into reverse, and the EZ economy seeming to be strong, would you factor any of that into your thinking or do you just read the charts?

Thanks
Quite honestly not really I could care less. Once the trade was on I would just move to protect it asap. I factor some fundamentals into my thinking but realistically, holding trades like this and expecting a correction is just another natural function in the everyday cycle of the markets. It happens. On a day to day basis, these rediculous levels drive the market up and down, with news events pulling the force, and sprinkle a little investor hysteria on top and you got yourself an FX mudpie. If it stops out at breakeven, then so be it.

5 days ago I heard short EUR. 4 days ago I heard long EUR. Yesterday I heard short EUR. Nobody can make up their damned minds.

Might sound like a totally stupid explaination but as long as I get paid I'm not really concerned.

I'm typically not a position trader but if I see something good I go for it and see where it goes. Its just another trade. They come, they go.

Not to mention fundamentals are all over the map. The more I trade using them, the more confused I get, the less I make. Had I listed to the fundamental outlook over the past week I wouldnt have made a dime. This much I can guarantee you. But I'm not usually looking to hold trades that long. No reason for me to what I have works fine.
  • #594
  • Jun 10, 2008 2:34am Jun 10, 2008 2:34am
Billy, it is true what you say about drawing tls, there seldom is a one and only way to draw a trendline. But, imo you need to create some rule of thumbs how to use them. Just like you have developed rules for using S&R-levels, for instance which levels are stong ones, and which not so strong.

If you have some sort of rule set, then it is much easier to improve your method, whatever that is, and evaluate the trades, bad trades especially, against those rules.

My trading is mostly based on tls, with support from S/R and fibs. The problem that I see with S/R only, is that you really never know "for sure", if the level is going to hold or break. But that is something you need to deal with MM, right? Tls on the other hand can propose, if certain criteria is met, very high probability trades.

I'll be tracking your thread with great interest.

R



Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Rocroy, I dont like to take trades based soley on diagonal trendlines due to the ambiguity on how to draw them. If there is an obvious one that coincides with a horizontal s/r line then I'll take it into consideration, but playing diagonal trendlines soley has simply hurt me enough not to go back to it.

Like last night the bottom on USDJPY was a combination of horizontal support and a diagonal tl. In a case like that sure. But always looking for the horizontal support first.

That diagonal line to me is just an accessory, like a pair of earrings; the 20 karat stud around the neck is the horizontal support.

I saw some instructional video taking a look at CHF from a well known investment bank. The very next day they changed the trendline to match whatever happened next, and price, quite predictably, blew right through it because no one else was looking at it that way. Bad karma.
  • #595
  • Jun 10, 2008 3:11am Jun 10, 2008 3:11am
Quoting Rocroy
Billy, it is true what you say about drawing tls, there seldom is a one and only way to draw a trendline. But, imo you need to create some rule of thumbs how to use them. Just like you have developed rules for using S&R-levels, for instance which levels are stong ones, and which not so strong.

If you have some sort of rule set, then it is much easier to improve your method, whatever that is, and evaluate the trades, bad trades especially, against those rules.

My trading is mostly based on tls, with support from S/R and fibs. The problem that I see with S/R only, is that you really never know "for sure", if the level is going to hold or break. But that is something you need to deal with MM, right? Tls on the other hand can propose, if certain criteria is met, very high probability trades.

I'll be tracking your thread with great interest.

R
Thanks for that. When I first read Tom DeMark's "The New Science of Technical Analysis", he said that he and a buddy took home the same set of charts one night and their trendlines were totally different the next morning. DeMark has a convention he developed for drawing trendlines, and much like this method, you're right, you need a standard set of rules on how to use them.

Also with practice, things generally get much easier. I'm at the point where I rarely have a level I determine that gets broken unless news or some speech tears it apart, on both an intraday and long term basis, or atleast without offering me a chance to get out at breakeven. You get an eye for these things; its like reading sheet music after a while. Once you know how to do it you're good.
  • #596
  • Jun 10, 2008 3:17am Jun 10, 2008 3:17am
Quoting Mary Pippins
If the Kiwi can crawl down to this level I'd expect a decent bounce, though I find it hard to narrow the entry further down that shown on the pic.

Any ideas anyone?
Just hit the low. If there's a significant pullback to occur anytime soon I imagine it would be here.....nothing that major off the higher level. If bought off the low its up about +15 pips so far. And yes, .7613 would be a good 1st target if the pullback continues from here. That's about 76 pips.
  • #597
  • Jun 10, 2008 4:23am Jun 10, 2008 4:23am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Just hit the low. If there's a significant pullback to occur anytime soon I imagine it would be here.....nothing that major off the higher level. If bought off the low its up about +15 pips so far. And yes, .7613 would be a good 1st target if the pullback continues from here. That's about 76 pips.

Yeah got in myself just a moment ago at the less than ideal .7555 level and all because somebody at work held me up, why can't those people just leave me alone?

Have my S/L at .7523 and opted for a more conservative 1st target at .7587 level for half my position , 2nd target at .7610 for another part and I'll leave another small position open for a possible bigger run to the .7710 level

It has been a bit quite though so far, which I believe is not the worst that could happen but also not really ideal.
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #598
  • Jun 10, 2008 7:29am Jun 10, 2008 7:29am
Quoting Mary Pippins
Yeah got in myself just a moment ago at the less than ideal .7555 level and all because somebody at work held me up, why can't those people just leave me alone?

Have my S/L at .7523 and opted for a more conservative 1st target at .7587 level for half my position , 2nd target at .7610 for another part and I'll leave another small position open for a possible bigger run to the .7710 level

It has been a bit quite though so far, which I believe is not the worst that could happen but also not really ideal.
I just wanted to say that I'm looking at good support all the way down to .7490. Anything that tries to dip that low would be worth the buy for me; the low level itself gave about +30 pips so far, but we're seeing this fighting going on tonight which is a little unexpected. There might be some stacking of positions underneath this low, but I wouldnt deter from a long just yet; would need a total blowout of this entire area to do that, which is very unlikely, but of course possible.
  • #599
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:12am Jun 10, 2008 8:12am
Hi Billy,

I have a simple question and excuse me if I missed it somewhere in this thread. When drawing S/R lines, do you ever use a close chart? Or do you just use tops and bottoms of bars/candles? I've looked at a few of your posted charts and I'm a bit confused.

Thanks.
  • #600
  • Jun 10, 2008 8:43am Jun 10, 2008 8:43am
Hello everyone! Billy Ray thank you for your effort and tutoring. This is really really great.

I probably missed the info about GBPUSD and am risking to post my levels for it:
minor support at 1.9508-14 and
a greater one at 1.9453-67

What do you think, guys and girls?
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