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  • #561
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:35am Jun 9, 2008 4:35am
which pairs are you guys looking at right now for next possible trades? thanks
  • #562
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:20am Jun 9, 2008 7:20am
Quoting thegunslinger
Enjoying this thread so far, BRV. This is the trading style I enjoy and feel the most comfortable with using. Hopefully I can improve a great deal following on here. My observation on the EU going into next week:


We've just had a 400+ pip run in 2 days. We're at, or very near, major resistance at the closing price level Friday. We broke through the 23 FE yesterday, that's a fib from the consolidation period back in Nov-Dec through the swing high in April. I think it needs to at least retrace and test the 23 as support before it takes a shot at the previous high. The 23 FE of that big swing also happens to be the 50 FE of the past two days' run.

The only thing holding me back from selling now, aside from the fact my broker is closed, is I want to see what happens at market open on Sunday. Specifically, if it gaps up over support. That could provide an even better entry for a short. I'd target half at 5700 and the rest at 5600.
Great call but poor execution.

Opened my trade last night and shorted @ 1.5790 but my stop was taken out by a mere 5 pips. The rug got pulled out from under the Euro this morning and I just saw it drop 100 pips like that. Sucks when you're on the sidelines and you know you should be in the game.
  • #563
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:44am Jun 9, 2008 7:44am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
+60 pips at most from this so far....looks like we're doing the consolidation thing after the spike again.
Hi Billy ( Teacher),

OK B Ray. It looks to me that the E/D is now retracing and that a great opportunit for a NB trade is Long at about the 1.5610-1.5605. Based on what I'm learning on this thread there are 3 reasons there should be a good bounce here....

1) Hi level of previous resistance now turned support.

2) 50% Fiboncci level from previous wave up.

3) With the trend.

Do you concur with this or is there anything I am not cons idering?( I am determined to learn this!)

Thanks!
  • #564
  • Jun 9, 2008 7:53am Jun 9, 2008 7:53am
While I was writng previous post... looks like bounce took place at 5661 instead which happened to be EXACTLY at 38.2 fib level. Also now see Support for this on 4HR chart.
Is that what happened?
  • #565
  • Jun 9, 2008 8:53am Jun 9, 2008 8:53am
Quoting inforthepips
While I was writng previous post... looks like bounce took place at 5661 instead which happened to be EXACTLY at 38.2 fib level. Also now see Support for this on 4HR chart.
Is that what happened?
I'm not at my charts to see the 4H support you mention, but don't discount that it could simply be a small correction within a bigger correction. The market is made up of moves within moves.

There's a lot of congestion around the 5600 level and I'm going to buy when it hits.
  • #566
  • Jun 9, 2008 1:14pm Jun 9, 2008 1:14pm
People

I have a multi-top on UsdJpy right now.
I just went short, let's see.....
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #567
  • Jun 9, 2008 1:16pm Jun 9, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting Primate
People

I have a multi-top on UsdJpy right now.
I just went short, let's see.....
A lot of people are short here based on 15 m triple top...watch for stop hunters mate......
  • #568
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:21pm Jun 9, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting inforthepips
Hi Billy ( Teacher),

OK B Ray. It looks to me that the E/D is now retracing and that a great opportunit for a NB trade is Long at about the 1.5610-1.5605. Based on what I'm learning on this thread there are 3 reasons there should be a good bounce here....

1) Hi level of previous resistance now turned support.

2) 50% Fiboncci level from previous wave up.

3) With the trend.

Do you concur with this or is there anything I am not cons idering?( I am determined to learn this!)

Thanks!
Hi inforthepips,

You probably dont even need fib levels for this one. Take a look at this hourly chart. The top of the last major hump of consolidation served as support for the pair at 1.5619. You could have also bought at 1.5692-85 due to the strong historical significance, but the more obvious, bigger move is likely to come off of the level it is currently on.

This happens over and over again. If you take a look at the JPY trade from last week, this was the EXACT same case. You'll see it a lot.

I agree a few pips lower there is more support, but this is the most recent and therefore the most significant, hence price jumped from 1.5619, not any lower.

There should be a decent sized correction from this level, and you can see that you could have determined it to the exact pip in terms of entry.

Use fibs to reinforce your entries or look for levels in heavy consolidation. But your eye it your best tool. Fibs dont turn the market, but s/r does.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #569
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:28pm Jun 9, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short EUR/USD 1.5840 - 1.5852

I know what you're thinking. "Why short EUR right now?" Well, I agree, but if anything I'm expecting some type of reaction from this for a number of different reasons.
Ok so it looks like EUR is going to make another lunge from the area described above, so

+222 pips max on this one for the day. Nice solid move; entry within 1 pip of the market turning.
  • #570
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:32pm Jun 9, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long USD/CHF 1.0175 - 1.0166

Good reactionary level for this pair. Price had a hard time deciding on this last downfall where it wanted to start to retrace (the current pullback on the chart below); those 3 peaks in the middle of the charts have a range of about 65 pips, so a little unclear. But the lower level looks solid, if price gets that far, which I think it should.
Looks like this was the bottom area for the day.

+130 pips max from 66.
  • #571
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:58pm Jun 9, 2008 2:58pm
Hi Billy
How are you? Hope things o.k at your neck of the woods. AUD/USD on 4H chart is on 200 SMA do you think this is a good point to go long for some pips?
Thank you for insight and wonderful thread
BANDA333
  • #572
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:07pm Jun 9, 2008 3:07pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Ok so it looks like EUR is going to make another lunge from the area described above, so

+222 pips max on this one for the day. Nice solid move; entry within 1 pip of the market turning.
That's just beautiful
What a spot on forecast!
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #573
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:09pm Jun 9, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Billy
How are you? Hope things o.k at your neck of the woods. AUD/USD on 4H chart is on 200 SMA do you think this is a good point to go long for some pips?
Thank you for insight and wonderful thread
I dont personally use or encourage the use of moving averages, but there is already a trade posted around these levels here earlier in the thread a few pages back.
  • #574
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:19pm Jun 9, 2008 3:19pm
Anyone currently watching U/J now at the top?
Up over a daily Pivot and settled down on support with high since February.
  • #575
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:27pm Jun 9, 2008 3:27pm
If the Kiwi can crawl down to this level I'd expect a decent bounce, though I find it hard to narrow the entry further down that shown on the pic.

Any ideas anyone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.gif Size: 33 KB
Be like a post stamp! Stick to it until you get there!
  • #576
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:44pm Jun 9, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi inforthepips,

You probably dont even need fib levels for this one. Take a look at this hourly chart. The top of the last major hump of consolidation served as support for the pair at 1.5619. You could have also bought at 1.5692-85 due to the strong historical significance, but the more obvious, bigger move is likely to come off of the level it is currently on.

This happens over and over again. If you take a look at the JPY trade from last week, this was the EXACT same case. You'll see it a lot.

I agree a few pips lower there is more support, but this is the most recent and therefore the most significant, hence price jumped from 1.5619, not any lower.

There should be a decent sized correction from this level, and you can see that you could have determined it to the exact pip in terms of entry.

Use fibs to reinforce your entries or look for levels in heavy consolidation. But your eye it your best tool. Fibs dont turn the market, but s/r does.
Thanks Billy, I think I'm Getting The general idea of this , just need t keep working on particulars. So are you saying that when I am looking for that entry point at the new support level that I should look for any areas that " Hump up" to draw my line and not just somewhere in the middle of the congestion?
  • #577
  • Jun 9, 2008 3:47pm Jun 9, 2008 3:47pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Long AUD/USD 0.9478 - 0.9472

Other support levels have been breached so far, so this is going to be the next one lower to look at. Depending on how ferocious the market is at the time of the trade is going to determine its stamina fading against this area. Please look at the red lines only.
Price started to retrace 2 pips away from expected entry on this trade so I'm taking it off the expected list FYI.
  • #578
  • Edited 4:25pm Jun 9, 2008 3:49pm | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting inforthepips
Thanks Billy, I think I'm Getting The general idea of this , just need t keep working on particulars. So are you saying that when I am looking for that entry point at the new support level that I should look for any areas that " Hump up" to draw my line and not just somewhere in the middle of the congestion?
yeah look at the last move up. its generally going to hold the most significance. then look at the history behind the level. the more support/resistance in the past, the better. but the hump on the last move up is usually the telltale for entry.

Like this trade was already good for +50 pips. And it could keep on going. Either way its a VERY safe trade with an EXTREMELY HIGH probability level. Its like looking at a pile of cash on the floor and all you gotta do is pick it up.

I think where most traders suffer here is a level of comfort. You just have to get used to these levels.

Most bad traders I know are just lazy. They dont do their homework, and expect millions in return. Every night I mark up my charts knowing in advance what I'm doing the next day. This takes about 1/2 hour to an hour, and that's it. After losing money starting off this is the only thing that has kept me consistent. But the more you see this stuff happening, the more you get used to it. EVERY DAY there are plenty of opportunities. The trades I had planned last night alone were good for about +700 pips today among 4 pairs had I held onto everything; just a matter of comfort. You gotta get used to it like anything else.

FYI I can tell you're not that way....you seem to be getting better at this, which is good to see!!! Let me know if you need anything else.
  • #579
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:42pm Jun 9, 2008 5:42pm
Thanks for the encouragement B Ray! I am in this for the long run. This " No Brainer" forum is a Godsend!

" Inch By Inch...It's A Cinch!"
  • #580
  • Edited 8:12pm Jun 9, 2008 7:59pm | Edited 8:12pm
Sell USD/CAD 1.0462 - 1.0472

Ok, so the EXACT number of the .50 retracement is 1.0466 (I calculated it manually). Selloff will probably begin from 1.0466 - 1.0470. I'll call this masterpiece "Bringin' Home the Bacon", by Billy Ray Valentine, Capricorn. Here's the chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.gif Size: 20 KB
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BlackCow