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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,581
  • Edited 1:40pm Jun 9, 2008 1:21pm | Edited 1:40pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I wouldn't be here right now if you hadn't made a statement about not using charts...... I have been reading your post everyday in which I get an email on daily bases from this thread...... I do not agree with your so call trading style but that is you but also it does not give you the right to down someone else's system because you do not agree with it..... So Bruce, in the future be careful of what you are saying....... Ask anyone that knows me, for I am well known on this forum, and they will tell you I do make 100 plus pips every single day.......

Good luck with your 1%

The Dove
I only stated my opinion here many times that only trading using technical indicators did not work for me. If it works for others than that is great.

To be more than 100% honest if that is possible what caused me to respond to you is that you first tell me that I am wrong.

(Strike One)

Then you state so STRONGLY that USD/JPY is going to 110.00

(Strike Two)

That is what prompted me to post. Perhaps you will be proven correct, that is not the point. It was how you were so sure. I am very careful here not to tell folks what to do as some are easily influenced.

All I can say ONE MORE TIME with Respect why do you see it going to 107.00 when NOW it is 105.93 JUST as I thought it would SINCE Dow is now DOWN 12 and dropping. And now the Dow has turned again and it is UP 33 while SP and Nasdaq are down so a few games going on... USD/JPY at 106.06 Bid

I have said from the beginning of my posts that you need to USE all the tools to be a winner in Forex. That includes using technical indicators, charts properly to time entry and exit.

I just saw no positive purpose to your post so I replied with humor. Do not take it personal as it is not meant to be. When I post that I once went 693 FX Trades in a row without a loss, I do not do it solely for Ego but to make a point that I know what I am talking about. I guess rightly or wrongly that is why you told me that you make 100 PIPs a day.

I can admit to being wrong. I just do not enjoy being told that I am wrong when it is not up to anyone but myself to see that. In closing this time wasting discussion and moving on to positive things, I would NEVER tell you 100% that you are wrong. As for 108.00 or 103.00, the Market decides that. Not you or I. If I see it OVER 107.00, I just might change my views. Your EGO is always right and wrong when it comes to making money. Learn that and you are a financial winner.

Best regards


Bruce
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  • #7,582
  • Jun 9, 2008 1:25pm Jun 9, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting dove_alliance
I also took your advice and started writing a book on trends and pivots...... Maybe by the end of the year it will be out.
Great to hear!! Let me know when it comes out, I'll be #1 in line at your first book signing.
  • #7,583
  • Jun 9, 2008 1:28pm Jun 9, 2008 1:28pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Great to hear!! Let me know when it comes out, I'll be #1 in line at your first book signing.
Smiling - I appreciate your support.......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,584
  • Jun 9, 2008 1:49pm Jun 9, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting goodness
may uj go to 104!
LOL ... you have my blessing on that request too ...
  • #7,585
  • Jun 9, 2008 1:50pm Jun 9, 2008 1:50pm
Dove,
I'm so glad to meet you again and to hear that you are doing fine! Congratulations on your book!
Surprised about EUR - have you given up on GBP? :-)

Bruce,
When I first read Dove's posts in this thread last year I, too, was very sceptical and tried to argue, While doing that I followed Dove's daily comments and advices, so now I can certify that he doesn't make any false claims and has a solid system to back everything up.
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #7,586
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:12pm Jun 9, 2008 2:12pm
Quoting Firstboss
Dove,
I'm so glad to meet you again and to hear that you are doing fine! Congratulations on your book!
Surprised about EUR - have you given up on GBP? :-)

Bruce,
When I first read Dove's posts in this thread last year I, too, was very sceptical and tried to argue, While doing that I followed Dove's daily comments and advices, so now I can certify that he doesn't make any false claims and has a solid system to back everything up.
I accept your input. I have a very unique way to deal with issues. I do not insult or put people down however I can definitely get under one's skin.

I always love it when someone wins. I try hard not to knock others. I learn everyday from other people some who know a small part of what I know overall. I do not look down on anyone.

I have noticed that two strong minded individuals can have strong different opinions.

I can always be wrong. What upsets me the most in life is when I say that to someone and they reply saying that I am wrong and they are right and subject closed !!!

The WALL is PUT up and Communication ends...

Let Us Move On To Having Fun and Making Money and for those with more talent than I, Write Books !!! Send me a email to [email protected] and I will buy the first copy !!!

Good Trading To All !!!
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  • #7,587
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:14pm Jun 9, 2008 2:14pm
Hi Dove, as I said earlier, nice to see you back......however, even as one who found your posts last year of great interest and very helpful in the application of pivots to the Yen pairs, I do have some issues with your current approach.

You say that now the trend in UJ is up until it changes - well that's a matter of opinion AND definition - and I have no idea what your current definition is.

The Daily Trend COULD still be down as it has yet to break the down trending gann line -6.0 line from the June 22nd high last year at 124.15 AND its 200 EMA. OK, it is now up for 73 days since its March 16 low and now at its 38.2% retrace - its Decision Zone where IT will decide on its future direction - and yes, I dont believe that CAN happen until it has fullfilled its own time cycle.

So please, lets hear your rational for your strongly held opinions - and what will be a reversal for you. This will help those of us here in FF who follow this thread, rather than just your own select band of followers on your own personal site.

Regards

Islander
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,588
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:24pm Jun 9, 2008 2:24pm
As long as USD/JPY does NOT break 106.40 then I see it going down eventually as in over the next few days. However new data might change things. USA New Jobless Claims on Thursday along with Retail Sales.

Lately the USD/JPY has a tendency to rise after the NY close however it has risen over 106.00 mainly on the back of EUR/JPY going from 164.951 to 167.161 The EUR/USD went from 1.56176 to 1.58451 and back again to 1.5641 so EUR/JPY might reverse as well and then again maybe not. It depends on more bad news overnight.

The S&P has been weak all day along with the Nasdaq and Dow is only up a little now at 18 or so.

The Yield on the 2 year and 10 Year USA Bonds has gone down as Oil has backed off some so money is going into safe haven US Bonds ad they are bought.

It will take something new to move things again. Oil still VERY HIGH OVEr $134 US and Gold is holding down some below $900 US at $894.80 US

Dow Up again 45 now so it might get a RUN UP before the Close caleed Short Covering or INTERVENTION !!!

If USD/JPY breaks 106.40 it then needs to BREAK, 106.60 before I take another look.

Have A Good Evening !!!


Bruce
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  • #7,589
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:29pm Jun 9, 2008 2:29pm
Hi Dove Happy to see you back. You taught us last year certain things which I appreciate very much. Actually I tried to use news from Wren Forex and to trade. Sorry this is my opinion if follow fundies like waren forex, you can loose most of the time.
BANDA333
  • #7,590
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:33pm Jun 9, 2008 2:33pm
Quoting Islander
Hi Dove, as I said earlier, nice to see you back......however, even as one who found your posts last year of great interest and very helpful in the application of pivots to the Yen pairs, I do have some issues with your current approach.

You say that now the trend in UJ is up until it changes - well that's a matter of opinion AND definition - and I have no idea what your current definition is.

The Daily Trend COULD still be down as it has yet to break the down trending gann line -6.0 line from the June 22nd high last year at 124.15 AND its 200 EMA. OK, it is now up for 73 days since its March 16 low and now at its 38.2% retrace - its Decision Zone where IT will decide on its future direction - and yes, I dont believe that CAN happen until it has fullfilled its own time cycle.

So please, lets hear your rational for your strongly held opinions - and what will be a reversal for you. This will help those of us here in FF who follow this thread, rather than just your own select band of followers on your own personal site.

Regards

Islander

Your Charts are very helpful in seeing what I can only visualize.

Always keep in mind we never know for sure where the Dow will go and that in itself is a new fundamental fact not included in anyone's charts. Perhaps a chart of the Dow alongside the USD/JPY might prove useful. I wish I could produce charts but I just do not have the knowledge or patience.

Thanks for you input and your questions to Dove. I also would be interested in the answers as I always like to look at the other side of every issue.

Then I make my own decision and that is the way it should be.

Risk Aversion and Carry Trade Go together so in calm waters the USD/JPY Carry Trade Returns. Uncertainty gives it reason to reverse down and get stronger.


Bruce
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  • #7,591
  • Jun 9, 2008 2:57pm Jun 9, 2008 2:57pm
Done...

KG
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  • #7,592
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:25pm Jun 9, 2008 4:25pm
If I can get out of my short positions alive again, I don't think I'll be shorting this pair for a while ... seems like it just wants to go up regardless of oil, dow, and some other crazy news or conspiracies ....
  • #7,593
  • Jun 9, 2008 4:58pm Jun 9, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting Schminner
If I can get out of my short positions alive again, I don't think I'll be shorting this pair for a while ... seems like it just wants to go up regardless of oil, dow, and some other crazy news or conspiracies ....
This pair is in a trend going up..... Especially on the weekly trend...... It is now on the 12th week since the low of 95.76 and it is flowing upward in the trend. There is a support and resistance that goes back to March 2004 into 2005 at the 155.57..... It is now above it...... There was also a support/resistance at the 102.65 in which it was a support for the last 7 weeks.....
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #7,594
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:14pm Jun 9, 2008 5:14pm
Quoting Schminner
If I can get out of my short positions alive again, I don't think I'll be shorting this pair for a while ... seems like it just wants to go up regardless of oil, dow, and some other crazy news or conspiracies ....
that's what happens when you lose a trade... then you don't short but maybe it is time to short but then... when you rethink and say.. ok hyes let's short.. then it is late again and it is time to go long.. and that's why sometimes there are consecutive wins or losses... you never have to think your next trade depending on your previous trades... The traders who change position quickly are the winners.
  • #7,595
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:22pm Jun 9, 2008 5:22pm
USD/JPY displays an interesting pattern on the 4 hour chart, looking poised to develop a Head-and-shoulders. From a technical perspective, the recent up-moves are not sustained by similar moves of RSI, feature which could be in support of USD/JPY short term reversal. We will be looking for a violent down move from current levels to confirm our possible short term reversal and the right shoulder of the formation that could develop. Will be updating this post if price action supports our bias.

www.andreitaga.com
http://andreitaga.wordpress.com
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  • #7,596
  • Jun 9, 2008 5:48pm Jun 9, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting Parmalat
USD/JPY displays an interesting pattern on the 4 hour chart, looking poised to develop a Head-and-shoulders. From a technical perspective, the recent up-moves are not sustained by similar moves of RSI, feature which could be in support of USD/JPY short term reversal. We will be looking for a violent down move from current levels to confirm our possible short term reversal and the right shoulder of the formation that could develop. Will be updating this post if price action supports our bias.

www.andreitaga.com
http://andreitaga.wordpress.com
I hope to see that happen ....
  • #7,597
  • Edited 6:51pm Jun 9, 2008 5:54pm | Edited 6:51pm
Just to start my point of view. I might be wrong. Having said that, I doubt it.

I see that the FED is again talking UP the US Dollar. They CAN SCREAM Raise all the way to the next rate cut. They would be INSANE to raise PERIOD.

They will soon lose 100% of their credibility. Raising rates would guarantee a longer recession. Perhaps they might not cut but as long as prices for Oil goes UP, the ECB will raise. The FED holds and it equals a CUT !!!

I have not even visited WWW.JSMINESET.COM today and when I do shortly, I expect to see similar comments there. I am happy the FED is getting USD/JPY higher since it gives me a better and safer place to short from.

ON EDIT...

Here is what the REAL EXPERT SAID. I Know Not a Thing !!!

Snippet:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Today the SEC said that they may ban Moody and Standard & Poors from rating any company with structured investment products. That sounds to me like both would be closed down because what public company is free of SIVs? The answer is none.
This situation is not only getting worse, but it is doing so at an accelerating rate.
If the Fed raises rates even a 1/4 point they would light the fuse to the final chapter long before it is due.
Citi, Merrill, UBS Face Monoline Losses, Whitney Says (Update1)
By Jeff Kearns and Bradley Keoun
June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG may post losses of $10 billion on bond insurance after MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc. lost their top credit ratings, Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney said.
MBIA and Ambac, the world's largest bond insurers, had their AAA ratings cut two levels by Standard & Poor's June 5, which trimmed ratings on more than $1 trillion of securities they guaranteed. The downgrades may limit the so-called monoline insurers' ability to write new policies, putting further pressure on earnings, she wrote today in a note to investors.
``The limited earnings potential of monolines poses a risk to the value of the insurance and hedges on the subprime-related securities provided to the banks and brokers,'' Whitney wrote. ``The collateral damage could be in excess of an additional $10 billion.''
Whitney, one of the first bank analysts last year to gauge the depth of the U.S. credit crisis, said in January that losses tied to the bond insurers for all banks might top $40 billion. She didn't update her estimate. Citigroup, Merrill and UBS have taken more than $10 billion of writedowns related to the insurers, she wrote.
Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, and Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage, have ``underperform'' stock ratings from Whitney. Both companies are based in New York. She doesn't cover Zurich-based UBS, the European bank hardest hit by the U.S. subprime contagion.
More…

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE to have a STRONG US Dollar with the deficits and the US Dollars being printed the way it is now. The FUNDAMENTALS do not CHANGE just because Bush and the FED say they want a STRONG US DOLLAR !!!

Let Me Seee USD/JPY break 106.40 and then 106.60 and then I will have another look. I have seen this movie one thousand times in the last three years.

The CHARTS can show whatever they show. The FACTS lead the Charts. PERCEPTION changes the Charts and the TRUTH changes them back again as the Dow drops again as another Bank hits the dust.

It will be interesting to see what happens by Friday. How about a FUN POLL ?

My Call for USD/JPY for Friday, June 13, 2008 is 104.50 to 105.00 !!!

What is your Call ?

Bruce

P.S.

Another Opinion !!!

Euro Outlook
20:09 GMT June 9th EUR/USD continues to whip around in wild swings characterized by thin liquidity and exaggerated price movements. Spot opened NY around 1.5800 having tested 1.5842 in overnight trading, and summarily collapsed. Comments from Treasury Secretary Paulson that intervention is "not off the table", and more comments from the Fed's Geithner echoing Bernanke's comments last week that the Fed is paying "particular attention" to the dollar, and the central bank cannot afford to ignore the currency rallied the buck. EUR/USD collapsed to 1.5620, the low as oil fell, and closed at 1.5625/30.
Heavy EUR/GBP sales undermined the single currency, with a high PPI print sparked fears of a BoE ate hike and hammered the pair down from 0.8033 in early European trading to trigger stops in New York at 0.7980, and driving the pair to closing lows at 0.7917/20. Too many people were in the trade, they liked short GBP, and didn't like the USD so they picked EUR/GBP, more fall out likely. Trichet repeated his comments from last week regarding potential rate hikes. Noyer (BdF) also affirmed ECB will do what is necessary to battle inflation. PCW
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  • #7,598
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:00pm Jun 9, 2008 6:00pm
Hi Folks it seems like there is a bearish divergence in 4H USD/JPY with RSI even CCI ,could anybody mind to confirm? Thank you in advance .........
BANDA333
  • #7,599
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:10pm Jun 9, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting Warren Forex
My Call for USD/JPY for Friday, June 13, 2008 is 104.50 to 105.00 !!!

What is your Call ?
I was thinking 103.75, no I'm not short..yet
  • #7,600
  • Jun 9, 2008 6:14pm Jun 9, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting SuperV900
I was thinking 103.75
I'm hoping for mid 105's, then I don't care where it goes .....
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