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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,521
  • Jun 6, 2008 1:53pm Jun 6, 2008 1:53pm
I am Long
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  • #7,522
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:10pm Jun 6, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting pepbullish
I am Long
Attachment
Hi I am from GBP/USD thread. I am not sure whether you know about bad jobs report and oil has increased up to 138 and it is aming to go to 150 by July 4th and DJIA closed with 396 points in negative.

Based on the light of the above factors, I think in Asia on Sunday this pair will be wripped off at least 100-150 pips. I don't usually do USD/JPY but I think this is the party time to go SHORT for USD/JPY pair ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY IN ASIA AND EUROPE SESSIONS.
  • #7,523
  • Jun 6, 2008 2:13pm Jun 6, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting asyed4
Hi I am from GBP/USD thread. I am not sure whether you know about bad jobs report and oil has increased up to 138 and it is aming to go to 150 by July 4th and DJIA closed with 396 points in negative.

Based on the light of the above factors, I think in Asia on Sunday this pair will be wripped off at least 100-150 pips. I don't usually do USD/JPY but I think this is the party time to go SHORT for USD/JPY pair ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY IN ASIA AND EUROPE SESSIONS.
Agreed. There is solid bearish price action of the daily chart and undecided action on the weekly. Because of the bearish action in compliance with the undecided action, I think we are in the beginning of a downmove.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #7,524
  • Jun 6, 2008 4:31pm Jun 6, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting pepbullish
I am Long
Attachment
I think it will drop just a little bit, then it's time to long the shit out of it ....
  • #7,525
  • Jun 7, 2008 2:40am Jun 7, 2008 2:40am
Quoting pepbullish
I am Long
Attachment
i put 3 sell limit @ 105.58 105.59 105.94
  • #7,526
  • Jun 7, 2008 2:43am Jun 7, 2008 2:43am
Quoting Jerry
i put 3 sell limit @ 105.58 105.59 105.94
my chart and analize
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  • #7,527
  • Jun 7, 2008 3:01am Jun 7, 2008 3:01am
Boy, did you say a mouthful. Anyone would be nuts to take this long after seeing this.

Quoting asyed4
Hi I am from GBP/USD thread. I am not sure whether you know about bad jobs report and oil has increased up to 138 and it is aming to go to 150 by July 4th and DJIA closed with 396 points in negative.

Based on the light of the above factors, I think in Asia on Sunday this pair will be wripped off at least 100-150 pips. I don't usually do USD/JPY but I think this is the party time to go SHORT for USD/JPY pair ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY IN ASIA AND EUROPE SESSIONS.
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  • #7,528
  • Jun 7, 2008 3:32am Jun 7, 2008 3:32am
I wonder if it'd be too late for me to hop on as soon as the market opens again and short with a take profit set at about 104.66...
Do you think the karate kid knows kung-fu?
  • #7,529
  • Jun 7, 2008 3:34am Jun 7, 2008 3:34am
Quoting pepbullish
I am Long
Attachment
start
  • #7,530
  • Jun 7, 2008 4:32am Jun 7, 2008 4:32am
I'm Flat over the weekend, but if I were playing this pair, I'd be short... targeting 103.90

Good luck with those longs, it's a bold move if you are still holding.

Ron.
  • #7,531
  • Jun 7, 2008 1:50pm Jun 7, 2008 1:50pm
asyed4

I think if you look at all the fundamental factors, the UDS/JPY will still fall. But be careful....


Quoting asyed4
Hi I am from GBP/USD thread. I am not sure whether you know about bad jobs report and oil has increased up to 138 and it is aming to go to 150 by July 4th and DJIA closed with 396 points in negative.

Based on the light of the above factors, I think in Asia on Sunday this pair will be wripped off at least 100-150 pips. I don't usually do USD/JPY but I think this is the party time to go SHORT for USD/JPY pair ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY IN ASIA AND EUROPE SESSIONS.
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #7,532
  • Jun 8, 2008 6:49am Jun 8, 2008 6:49am
Quoting stanru
If we pas 105.70 level, 107….. Is possible.
I choose this post to reply to for a specific reason.

I shorted USD/JPY at 106.30 and got a quick profit of 75 PIPS when it hit 105.55 on Friday. It actually closed at 104.98

I again suggest very strongly that you cannot win in Forex if you use the charts to tell you it might go to 107.00

The charts can and do change in a flash. 95% of all forex traders lose trading.

Why am I bothering to mention it again ?

I really am trying to turn losers (Financially) into Winners !!!

The most interesting thing for me in making these last comments that Winners in life can be Winners in Forex. However losers in Life cannot be Winners in Forex.

Why is that ? Forex trading is a way of life. How you think ! How you deal with your emotions !

In other words the charts telling you it is going to 107.00 or not only has a small part to play. At the most 25% of Forex trading envolves proper use of the charts.

What are your thoughts on this post ?


Bruce
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  • #7,533
  • Jun 8, 2008 7:19am Jun 8, 2008 7:19am
Quoting Warren Forex
I choose this post to reply to for a specific reason.

I shorted USD/JPY at 106.30 and got a quick profit of 75 PIPS when it hit 105.55 on Friday. It actually closed at 104.98

I again suggest very strongly that you cannot win in Forex if you use the charts to tell you it might go to 107.00

The charts can and do change in a flash. 95% of all forex traders lose trading.

Why am I bothering to mention it again ?

I really am trying to turn losers (Financially) into Winners !!!

The most interesting thing for me in making these last comments that Winners in life can be Winners in Forex. However losers in Life cannot be Winners in Forex.

Why is that ? Forex trading is a way of life. How you think ! How you deal with your emotions !

In other words the charts telling you it is going to 107.00 or not only has a small part to play. At the most 25% of Forex trading envolves proper use of the charts.

What are your thoughts on this post ?


Bruce

101% agreed with you Bruce. Most of the time, i will use fundametal as my main trading tool. Espeacialy to trade stocks. I will still use chart just for reference to identified overbought/oversold of a particular trading instrument. Sometimes, charts is being use by market makers as a phsycological tool and you will see the chart shows that support being purposely break by market makers but somehow after a few hours it went up again.
  • #7,534
  • Jun 8, 2008 7:29am Jun 8, 2008 7:29am
Quoting ehcydotcom
101% agreed with you Bruce. Most of the time, i will use fundametal as my main trading tool. Espeacialy to trade stocks. I will still use chart just for reference to identified overbought/oversold of a particular trading instrument. Sometimes, charts is being use by market makers as a phsycological tool and you will see the chart shows that support being purposely break by market makers but somehow after a few hours it went up again.

Have a look at this from one of the BEST Technical and Fundamental analysts available for FREE at WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Link:

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/M...r_6-6-2008.pdf


Bruce
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  • #7,535
  • Jun 8, 2008 9:42am Jun 8, 2008 9:42am
What do you guys think USD/JPY will heading to if Nikkei sink deeply tonight?
  • #7,536
  • Jun 8, 2008 11:06am Jun 8, 2008 11:06am
Quoting ehcydotcom
What do you guys think USD/JPY will heading to if Nikkei sink deeply tonight?

It has to hold below 105.00 to start or continue going towards 104.50...

Then we need to see where next solid support is and how it acts with that.

Then we need to watch EUR/USD ! Will it go up to 1.5800 and will EUR/JPY go to or over 166.00 ?

These are factors. How far will the Nikkei go down ? What will Europe do at the open and 30 minutes before the open ? Will new facts come out ?


Bottom line...Be ready for anything and trade or do not trade accordingly.


Bruce
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  • #7,537
  • Jun 8, 2008 12:53pm Jun 8, 2008 12:53pm
I'm short UJ from 106.06 holding it for 98.50 if we can break 102.50 first support.
I think Japan is going to wake up in red after this friday news...
  • #7,538
  • Jun 8, 2008 1:25pm Jun 8, 2008 1:25pm
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  • #7,539
  • Edited 1:31pm Jun 8, 2008 1:26pm | Edited 1:31pm
WarrenForex,

With the market sentiment as it is, and gas prices in the crapper (over $4 now nat average), with the crazy day on Friday, and many many other fundamental indications that I trust all giving way to a fall in the USD/JPY. Also, normmally when you have a day like Friday, the market always seems to offer up some soft of correction the folowing trading day. Most times, over the next 24 hours I will hear llots of gabbing on the news wires about how things are not "as bad" as they seem, some "trusted source" blaming it on this or that.
But this time, The sentiment I hear on news and in print points to negative sentiment.

Since the USD/JPY was recently near 103.00.....

(here comes the question..)...

Do you think that the technicals mean less and less during short volatle times like this?

I use my charts all the time, but not as extensivley as most trading here. I would say, I rely 80% on fundamentals and market setinment.


My call on the USD/JPY? I think it will fall to around 103.00 - 102.80 over the next week or so.

Oh yea, what about Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech on Monday. Do you think that a lot of what he says is said to "control" what we do. I mean if he said it was truely a crappy market and expressed low sentiment regarding the market, things would naturally only get worse. So can we expect him to keep the talk pretty much neutral and keep things in check? Or offer some positive banter to slow things down a but and change the sentiment ?



Best regards,

Bristol
"I spilled spot remover on my dog. He's gone now." - Steven Wright
  • #7,540
  • Jun 8, 2008 1:52pm Jun 8, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting bristolxyz
WarrenForex,

With the market sentiment as it is, and gas prices in the crapper (over $4 now nat average), with the crazy day on Friday, and many many other fundamental indications that I trust all giving way to a fall in the USD/JPY. Also, normmally when you have a day like Friday, the market always seems to offer up some soft of correction the folowing trading day. Most times, over the next 24 hours I will hear llots of gabbing on the news wires about how things are not "as bad" as they seem, some "trusted source" blaming it on this or that.
But this time, The sentiment I hear on news and in print points to negative sentiment.

Since the USD/JPY was recently near 103.00.....

(here comes the question..)...

Do you think that the technicals mean less and less during short volatle times like this?

I use my charts all the time, but not as extensivley as most trading here. I would say, I rely 80% on fundamentals and market setinment.


My call on the USD/JPY? I think it will fall to around 103.00 - 102.80 over the next week or so.

Oh yea, what about Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech on Monday. Do you think that a lot of what he says is said to "control" what we do. I mean if he said it was truely a crappy market and expressed low sentiment regarding the market, things would naturally only get worse. So can we expect him to keep the talk pretty much neutral and keep things in check? Or offer some positive banter to slow things down a but and change the sentiment ?



Best regards,

Bristol

Use your best evaluation skills and it appears to me that you have a good handle on it. However in the present time frame there is now all out economic war going on. There might even have been crossed signals between the FED and the ECB. They do cooperate as long as it suits their own purposes. However I wonder if Bernake ever expected Trichet to say there might be a raising of rates in July 2008 by the ECB !

Now Trichet looks like a rational responsible person for the ECB and Bernake Helicopter Ben has a NEW NAME. The FED rarely intervenes in the currency markets verbally. That is left to the US Treasury. So now I call him as others also do "Helicopter HOT AIR Ben"

He knew on Tuesday that the Unemployment Rate was going to be 5.5% so that is why he tried to talk up the US Dollar and get the price of Oil and Gold down.

The market decided out of FEAR and Short Covering and those Short Oil, Gold, Euro and Yen got squeezed !!!

What will happen this week ? No ASSUMPTIONS until I see how Japan reacts, the BOJ reacts, Europe reacts, the ECB reacts and then the Dow on Monday.

Only use the charts short term to watch STRONG support or resistance. The RANGE now WITHOUT even looking at a chart is 104.50 to 106.50

As things develop ALL charts will change. Fundamentals will drive the change or over reaction because of FEAR or GREED.

Stay tuned. Use Money Management. Do not be GREEDY. Take 1/3 profits into strength, Buy back 1/3 of your position in weakness if you trade a longer trend period. However things are so erratic at the moment that even a 30 day TREND period can change on a moments notice short term as PERCEPTIONS change from REALITY back to PERCEPTION and then BACK again.

Trade smart without emotion and be a winner.

Good Trading...


Bruce
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