Anybody know some Aussie fundys to support this pair. I think it should lose strength as the daily is in a reluctant up trend (A.U)
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DislikedAnybody know some Aussie fundys to support this pair. I think it should lose strength as the daily is in a reluctant up trend (A.U)Ignored
Dislikeda 60 pips move in 10 seconds! =/.. dammmn!! that was amazing, do it again!
im proud i was able to jump in the train just in time.. i went long @ 0.9540.
a flag is forming showing more possible bull power at 5M chart, BE CAREFUL if you're gonna place a trade.
*flag pole starts: 0.9486
*flag pole ends: 0.9547
if this pattern completes targets are @ 0.9610Ignored
DislikedMaybe short GBP/AUD. GBP seems pretty weak, Aussie fundamentally strong, and tech's are showing some decent signals. I just loaded this chart tonight so I don't really know how it moves. Just an observation though.Ignored
DislikedThe GDP data earlier this week was Jan through March before the interest rates from the RBA and the extra ones from the AU banks from Jan to March started to have an effect.
All the more recent data from April and real estate auction closing rates have significantly deteriorated with all the rate rises, fuel increases and inflation biting hard.
I expect we'll see more negative data out of Australia and better data coming out of the US - and in the last week this has been the case. Once the market - especially hedge funds - which I believe have pushed the AUD up on speculation and carry trades start to see that the up cycle is at an end they will pull back and take their profit. This will start a decline and anyone with carry trades will rush away from the AUD otherwise risk making a significant loss, especially those who just bought in.
All the cyclic trends of the past 20 years show that there is a dramatic rise and then a critical point where people pull out fast. The higher it is, the faster it falls. and the NZD seems to be a canary in the mine.
What most people seem to be unaware of is that Commodities are just 17% of the Australian economy and like the US the boom and consumer activity has been driven by a property bubble which is now breaking. If commodities were a greater % of the economy the height of the AUD would make sense but there is more to the story.
Many people are carrying record levels debt - twice as much as 18 years and the interest rate is just over half of what it was then. Consumer purchasing power is tightening hard. At that point 18 years ago the Australian economy dramatically slowed, unemployment rose and consumers had far less spending power.
What has driven a good proportion of inflation in Australia in the last few years, apart from rising fuel and drought, has been a record property boom driven by debt. Over the last few months new loans have dramatically decreased and the trend will continue. The top of this cyclic boom is coming to an end.
In my view the AUD is well and truly overbought. Australia does not have the purchasing or economic power of the US, nor even Canada yet in the Forex markets it is being treated as such. This makes for a very dangerous time to trade. Sure small gains can be made in the short term but watch for the point where it breaks hard.Ignored
DislikedNo posts in over a month despite hitting new post float highs.
Could be gearing up for final push towards parity on back of cpi numbersIgnored