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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,361
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:29am Jun 5, 2008 8:29am
I think that this document is very importand and all of the newbie like me will have to take atention on it.It said a lot of information in brief for the hearth of the system so I upload it again.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Market Rhythm 4 Hour Strategy.doc   36 KB | 1,661 downloads
  • #15,362
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:29am Jun 5, 2008 8:29am
Hi Fena,

Others may correct me if I am wrong.....as I understand Philips MACD method, a counter trade would be taking a trade against the 89 MA, eg going long when price is below 89, going short when price is above 89......newbies are advised to steer clear of countertrades and only take TC trades.
Hope this helps...
  • #15,363
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:34am Jun 5, 2008 8:34am
Quoting fena74
Hi all people here.Can anybody tell me what i sthat mean-I took it from Market Rhytm 4 Hrs Strategy-word file:
II.1 End of the UP Trend
..... When an up trend comes to an end the price is making lower highs and lower lows and the MACD sometimes shows divergence (meaning the price goes up while the MACD goes down).
.....
I know what is divergence mean with the price and MACD,but
I can not understand how the price could make LH and LL and the same time.I tried to imagine that but it is hard to understand that sentence.
Thank you in advance to all of you.
I wrote that file and I know the sentence seems illogical at first. I thought a lot about that before I wrote it because I couldn't find the words to express it. It seems that I didn't find it.

I have attached the chart and wrote on it (I hope it is ok) maybe this way you will understand better what I meant. Listen again to the mp3 about market rhythm because Phillip explains better the inset 1.

I hope this will help you!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Rhythm Cycle.GIF Size: 61 KB
  • #15,364
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:35am Jun 5, 2008 8:35am
Yes this helps-thank you and I will stay away from countertrend for now.Thank you AtticTrader
  • #15,365
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:38am Jun 5, 2008 8:38am
Luckytiger your file is perfect.I am new here from several months but I understood most of the file after deep reading so I am happy to have this info.Your file is perfect so it helps me a lot.Thank you.
  • #15,366
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:42am Jun 5, 2008 8:42am
Quoting fena74
Thnak you and to you Yorik,Nice explanation.I know now that it is some kind of countertrand beginning so I will stay away from this for enter but it is very good sign to TP may be.Yes sometimes we need to repeat the material in this thread and it is very usefull.I like that way that thread works.Thank you.
It is not a CT. I was reffering to the end of the trend. When the price comes below the 21EMA pulls back to it and may go to the 89SMA. Sometimes it doesn't go straight to the 89SMA and goes again above the 21EMA and then comes to the 89SMA. This is when it reaches lower highs.

A CT is when the price oly goes to the 8EMA or the 21EMA and then it continues the trend. This is how I see CT.
  • #15,367
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:47am Jun 5, 2008 8:47am
Quoting fena74
Luckytiger your file is perfect.I am new here from several months but I understood most of the file after deep reading so I am happy to have this info.Your file is perfect so it helps me a lot.Thank you.
I am also new to the strategy. This is why I wrote that file to understand better the rules and follow them. After you understand the startegy don't forget to do some backtesting. It will help you gain more confidence in the strategy.
  • #15,368
  • Jun 5, 2008 11:08am Jun 5, 2008 11:08am
Quoting attictrader
Hi Fena,

Others may correct me if I am wrong.....as I understand Philips MACD method, a counter trade would be taking a trade against the 89 MA, eg going long when price is below 89, going short when price is above 89......newbies are advised to steer clear of countertrades and only take TC trades.
Hope this helps...
Hi attictrader, --You're correct that being below the 89 is one of the bearish signs. Being below the 89 and the 200 would mean that you would like to be able to take a short trade, though one might not be available at the time.

However, people often get confused about countertrend versus trend continuation trades in this method. Those terms refer to the MACD signals and not to the overall trend. Therefore, a TC means that the signal is in the same direction that the MACD shows regarding the zero line. When the MACD is above zero, a TC is a signal to go long, and a counter trend signal is a round top, a lower high, a double top, or any signal for a short.

When below the zero line, a TC is a signal to go short. Then, your counter trend signals are the ones to go long, round bottoms, higher lows, etc. The TC signals have shown themselves to be the more consistently reliable ones. --Tony
  • #15,369
  • Jun 5, 2008 11:31am Jun 5, 2008 11:31am
Quote
However, people often get confused about countertrend versus trend continuation trades in this method. Those terms refer to the MACD signals and not to the overall trend. Therefore, a TC means that the signal is in the same direction that the MACD shows regarding the zero line. When the MACD is above zero, a TC is a signal to go long, and a counter trend signal is a round top, a lower high, a double top, or any signal for a short.

When below the zero line, a TC is a signal to go short. Then, your counter trend signals are the ones to go long, round bottoms, higher lows, etc. The TC signals have shown themselves to be the more consistently reliable ones. --Tony
Old Dog,
Thanks for the clarification.....I now understand TC better (there were several TCs I didn't take because it meant going wrong way to the 89). So, looking forward to better trading in future.
AT
  • #15,370
  • Jun 5, 2008 12:54pm Jun 5, 2008 12:54pm
hi people, what's up?

did you see the round top on h1 tf? does it counts as a relyable pattern since it's on the h1 chart , or only if it were on the h4?

thanks
  • #15,371
  • Jun 5, 2008 12:55pm Jun 5, 2008 12:55pm
Sometimes we newbie need that information again to clarify out minds.These days I read so much from this thread that on first glance I understood everything and when I jump in the sea I see I can not swim That is because I need to simple the things and as Philip said-one step at a time.Thank you Old Dog for that info.It helps a lot.
  • #15,372
  • Jun 5, 2008 12:59pm Jun 5, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting Barak's pip
hi people, what's up?

did you see the round top on h1 tf? does it counts as a relyable pattern since it's on the h1 chart , or only if it were on the h4?

thanks
Hi Barack's pip,better stay away from 1 hour graphic and even forget that it is exists for now.And better forget for trading countertrand if you are new to this thread and system.After some time you will see that I am right.Ofcource that my advice is for you just if you are new to 4 Hour system and if it is-concentrate all of your attention just on 4 hour graphic and on TC only.Thanx.
  • #15,373
  • Jun 5, 2008 1:52pm Jun 5, 2008 1:52pm
Here is a written copy of the last mp3.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc wrapup.doc   28 KB | 598 downloads
  • #15,374
  • Jun 5, 2008 8:57pm Jun 5, 2008 8:57pm
Hello everyone,

I think this would be interesting.
Will it be a trend continuation or will it break trendline B and retrace to the blue trendline A?

The MACD is touching the zero line and it's been a pin on the previous bar.

Keeping a close watch.

Gd luck trading! =)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #15,375
  • Jun 5, 2008 10:14pm Jun 5, 2008 10:14pm
Quoting ira
Here is a written copy of the last mp3.
Ira, thanks a lot!
  • #15,376
  • Edited 11:09pm Jun 5, 2008 10:16pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting Sukarno
Hello everyone,

I think this would be interesting.
Will it be a trend continuation or will it break trendline B and retrace to the blue trendline A?

The MACD is touching the zero line and it's been a pin on the previous bar.

Keeping a close watch.

Gd luck trading! =)
in my chart it look much smother , if macd confirm tc i will take it with my SL in red line. what do u think? 47 minutes until close candle.

edit:
already closed no macd tc

http://forexfactory.com/attachment.p...1&d=1212729270
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swiss.png Size: 9 KB
  • #15,377
  • Jun 5, 2008 11:15pm Jun 5, 2008 11:15pm
Hi, could anyone tell me what is the next high probability setup after TC, BOZ, and ZB? I have been learning for those 3 setups lately, and would like to go to the next level.
  • #15,378
  • Jun 5, 2008 11:29pm Jun 5, 2008 11:29pm
I see no rhythm on the EUR, it's in range, so it can go to any direction, and with today's NFP it's a difficult one.
  • #15,379
  • Jun 5, 2008 11:33pm Jun 5, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting fxinvesta
Hi, could anyone tell me what is the next high probability setup after TC, BOZ, and ZB? I have been learning for those 3 setups lately, and would like to go to the next level.

Hi, next level will be RT's and RB's from MA's or TL, or some strong support/resistance level. I like it very much when price rounds together with MACD, and there are tails piercing through MA or TL, or sup/res. They are very high probability trades and usually come with market rhythm rules.
  • #15,380
  • Jun 5, 2008 11:35pm Jun 5, 2008 11:35pm
Hi, fxinvesta.
I'm also not so far from the beginning, so please consider the following as my IMHO, just the answer I would give myself if I had to answer the question you've posted.

So, you noted TC, BOZ and ZB as higher probability trades and that's generally accepted as those setups on MACD in most cases trigger trades in the direction of the trend. It should be noted though, that much depends on the rhythm (location and interaction of price to MAs) at specific setup, the "mode" of trend (if price is in a trend, in a range, or no rhythm and no range can be seen) and other signs. BOZ and ZB may be conter-trend (in the direction of EMA21); TC may be "against" strong price level which may make it less probable ans so on - I think you understand all that.

If really to make some gradation of setups according to their probability, then I would group named TC setups into "Class A" setups and then in "Class B" I would place:
a) round tops/bottoms when price established a channel (is in a range), taken from strong support/resistance and then, maybe
b) LH at the end of uptrend and HL at the end of a donwtrend.
Both subgroups of setups might be less probable than TCs and may trigger SL more often even before going in the needed direction.

As a conclusion, (my) short answer for your question would be: much depends on the specific setup but pro-trend setups are more probable than conter-trend ones I guess, you've known that when asking already...
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