USD/JPY Discussion

anyone thinks that the price coul come back about 104.50

Seems to hit it's low around 9:00 PM to 9:30 PM EST as I see it did tonight around 105.21

Then it moves up and if no news around 2:30 AM EST, there is usually more movements without any real news out there. Then Europe opens at 3:00 AM and the markets take over. Do Not FORGET ISM early Monday morning.

It comes out at 10:00 AM EST (14:00 GMT) and it is a market mover if over or under Consensus. Under 50 is Contraction in the US Economy.

Last Month was 48.6 and Consensus is 47.9 so a 49 or Above Will send Dow Up and a 46 or less will be BAD NEWS for the Dow and Good for USD/JPY heading towards 104.00

The HIGH tonight is 105.55 and it just tried to test it now but failed for the moment around 105.48

02 Jun 2008 00:49 GMT

BULLET: DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y105.74 to seen further to...

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y105.74 to seen further gains to Y106.00
RES 3 Y107.21 EQ proj. of Y95.77-102.95 fm Y100.03
RES 2 Y106.61 38.2% r of Y124.14-95.77
RES 1 Y105.88 29 May high
CURRENT LEVEL: Y105.35
SUP 1 Y104.92 Intraday low
SUP 2 Y104.80 Hourly sup
SUP 3 Y103.89 28 May low
COMMENTARY: While Y104.92 (intra-day low in Australia) holds, recent
upmove should resume, above Friday's high at Y105.74 to then encourage
further gains to Y106.00. But hourly oscillators to display bearish
divergences on such move, Y106.20/30 to cap upside. Below Y104.80
confirms temporary top made, risk stronger retracement towards
Y104.38. Website: www.trendsetterfx.com.

Provided by: Market News International



Bruce

Personally, I think this is a wanderful idea and I like to invite as many as possible to participate in this project.

I have just opened a Demo account with my brokers, and you can open yours with your own brokers or FXCM.

For consistency, please have the capital at USD50,000.00 with 1:200 Leverage. (If Bruce wants a smaller Leverage [1:100, 1:50, 1:1], please let us know.)

Since most Demo account automatically expires after 30 days. We should print out or save the trading record well before the expiry date.

My thread that I proposed to implement this Project is at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88492

Let's come to have fun and also learn to make money in the FOREX world.

Candlestick Forecast for 2 June 2008

Based on Daily Candlestick on 30 May (Friday)

USDJPY - Black Star Reversal: Could be market top. Wait for confirmation and check Stochastics for confirmation.
- Incomplete Dark Cloud Cover: Sell on confirmation
- Thrusting Line confirmation: Overbought

PREVIOUS DAY CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
-- Thrusting Line confirmation: Overbought
-- Bullish Trending Lines take over: Bullish Continuation

Closed all in 104.62
+220 Pips

The early market Dow Jones Index drops sharply 100 points, USDJPY breaks 5 daily moving average lines


Analysts pointed out that the day chart demonstrated that US dollar/Japanese Yen has not been able to break through the previous high spot at 105.70, Monday the exchange rate broke 5 daily moving average lines, indicated that the short line trend become weak. But the rise trend line which forms from 95.74 maintains intact, the intermediate stage bounce pattern maintains unchanged.

道指早盘大跌100余点 美元兑日元跌破5日均线

　　有分析师指出，日线图显示，美元/日元未能有效突破前期高点105.70，周一汇价跌破了5日均线，表明短线走势转弱。但延自95.74形成的上升趋势线保持完好，中期反弹格局保持不变。

Very nice, I should had held mine a few days longer ....

yea' !!! my shorts made it too .. closed @ 104.20

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


This Wrap Up of June 2, 2008 TELLS it like it is...


http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


Bruce

03 Jun 2008 00:42 GMT

BULLET: DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Retracement to Y103.89 seen after..

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Retracement to Y103.89 seen after minor consolidation
RES 3 Y105.88 29 May high
RES 2 Y105.54 02 June high
RES 1 Y104.92 02 June Asian low
CURRENT LEVEL: Y104.38
SUP 1 Y104.02 02 June low
SUP 2 Y103.89 28 May low
SUP 3 Y103.50 Prev. hourly res
COMMENTARY: Yesterday's selloff confirms recent erratic upmove has
formed top at Y105.88, strong retracement to chart objective at Y103.89
is envisaged after minor consolidation. But as 15-minute, hourly
oscillators to display bullish convergences on such move, Y103.65 (38%
of Y100.03-105.88) to contain weakness, bring strong rebound.
Website: www.trendsetterfx.com.

Update Time:02 Jun 2008 00:53Next Update At:00:30GMTUSD/JPY - 105.38Dollar's present rebound from intra-day low at 104.92 (Australia) suggests the strong pullback from last week's high at 105.88 has possibly ended there and abv 105.74 would signal recent erratic upmove has once again resumed, yield subsequent headway to 106.00/10, however, loss of momentum should limit upside to 106.20/30 and risk has increased for a strong retreat.
Only a firm break below aforesaid support at 103.92 would abort present bullish view and may risk stronger correction to 104.35/40.http://www.trendsetterfx.com/image/common/space.gif

Provided by: Market News International

http://www.dailypfennig.com/


OK... A reader sent me a note about the 1-year auction of Treasury Bills, and said, "This is scary isn't it?" OK... Here's the skinny on that... You see U.S. Treasury Sec. Paulson is feeling like he's been through the desert on a horse with no name these days... The Treasury is going to issue 1-year T-Bills tomorrow for the first time since 2001... With the expanding Budget Deficit, they have no other choice... The cheese that binds here is the fact that Paulson is indicating that the Fed Reserve, who in the past, had been a regular purchaser of the debt, may not be willing to do so... You see, the Fed is focusing on taking on all that bad debt from mortgage lenders... (can you say, "the Fed's focus is all screwed up?"... I knew you could!)

Want some proof that our Deficit situation has become completely out of control... How about this little ditty... In the first five months of 2008, the Treasury sold $1.4 trillion of bills, an increase of 36 percent from the same period last year. Oh, but don't let that get in the dollar bulls way of buying dollars! Deficits Don't Matter, right? HOGWASH! You and I know that! But these guys running the country don't believe it... And that's a real shame, or sham... Pick one, either one applies!


Enjoy !!!


Bruce

Got a bullish hammer closing on the 60M charts right on top of support. Going long 2.

My charts and analysis here.
http://piphut.com/2008/06/technical-...ullish-hammer/

¿? bouncing or not bouncing... ... ¿?

That was a roller coaster ride

TP early at 104 even, not confident that this thing is going to drop much further (will probably tank below 103 now I'm out).

Note to self, and others, don't trade a divergence signal until it's confirmed http://www.forumgarden.com/forums/im.../zbanghead.gif

The Party Filing The Original Report Is a Hoaxer

I find it impossible to find a solution to the original Rip OFF Report by Thomas as he refuses to identify himself. All he needs to do is telephone me at 514 690-8121 to set up a meeting between himself and my barristers. It appears by his continuation of his behaviour to be uninterested to resolve anything.

He has posted inflamatory information on a Canadian web site called Oanda. There is a present time court papers being prepared to subpoena the records of Oanda in Toronto to try to locate the hoaxer called 'Thomas'

I have no problem with the Ripoff Report as they allow both sides to make their positions known.

Thomas if you have a proper claim then please show yourself so if there is a valid claim it can be resolved with proper proof of claim. The writer is a CTA regardless of comments to the contrary. At present time over $200,000 US dollars is being managed through an American Currency House


It Appears that there is another attempt by this poster to create turmoil here. There is no purpose for his post other than to disrupt. I can assure you the information is false regardless that is not the issue. I try hard to be helpful and your cooperation in removing this party because of his violation of the rules would be most appreciated. Thank You...Bruce

Action Insight Daily Report

More Technical Analysis Reports Here
RBA on Hold, Bernanke Watched

The Japanese yen and Swiss Franc edges further higher today as risk aversion is back to be the theme of the markets. Markets are concerned that risks of a credit crunch are rekindling after news that S&P lowered its debt rating on three of the biggest securities firms in US and that Lehman Brothers may need to raise $4b of extra capital. Weakness of the US stock markets carried on to the Asian markets today and continues to support the yen and swissy.
Dollar, on the other hand, is a touch softer against Euro and steady against Sterling and Aussie so far. Focus turns to today's speech from Bernanke on hints of Fed's next move. Futures are pricing 98% probability that Fed will be unchanged in June. However, recent hawkish turns in Fedspeaks prompted speculation that that next move will more likely be a hike. Dec fed funds futures are pricing in around 60% odds that Fed will hike by 25bps. Though, markets will still look into today's speech, ISM services and more importantly Non-farm payroll report later this week. This expectation will remain an important factor in dollar's moves.
RBA left rates unchanged at 7.25% as widely expected. The accompanying statement provided little new to the markets. Though, Aussie was weight down mildly by the downbeat assessment for the economy in near term.
Released in early US session, Swiss CPI accelerated sharply higher from 2.3% yoy to 2.9% yoy in May, fastest pace in 15 years. Eurozone Q1 GDP and PPI will be released later in the European session, so is UK PMI construction. In the US session, focus is mainly on Bernanke's speech and Apr factory orders.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...2008060348064/


Bruce

http://www.saxobank.com/?id=582&Lan=...=5&PubTypeID=1

Snippet:

Market Comments
Risk aversion bit deeper yesterday with a very strong recovery in world bond markets and a sharp sell-off in equities to start the week, the higher than expected ISM and ISM prices paid notwithstanding. The FX market responded with an impressive performance from the JPY and CHF, with the former finally strengthening sharply across the board after weakening against most currencies for the last 3 weeks or so. It appears we may finally have our pivot point on the risk appetite front - stay tuned. The trigger for this move to risk aversion was the UK's Bradford and Bingley's woes that surfaced yesterday, and this news was followed with news that S&P was slashing its ratings for three of the major US investment banks on fears of further write-offs. Still, it seems the market was ripe for a catalyst anyway, as news of this nature has failed previously to trigger the kinds of moves we saw yesterday.
The USD managed to survive the shift to a risk averse market quite well so far and that remains the key: as worries about global growth become manifest, we would prefer to see USD and especially JPY strength and for the growth/commodity currencies and the EUR to suffer the most. That scenario fits best with the overall view that we will see a continued unwinding in risk appetite and a recoupling of the major economies. To support this view in the short term, we'd like to see EURUSD remain below its 21-day and 55-day moving averages, and to see a follow up move lower through 1.5460.
USDCAD managed to pull all the way back above parity yesterday and the 200-day moving average. A follow up move higher will put it firmly back in the old range. If we see this development, we may soon finally be able to talk up the prospects of a real uptrend starting if the pair is able to keep the momentum up and work its way through the next layers of resistance (see chart below). Also, have a look at CADJPY as a potential downside play if risk aversion deepens.
Australia's RBA left rates unchanged at 7.25% as expected, and gave little reason to increase the belief that they may raise rates later this year, as has recently been priced into the forward expectations, though 2-year rates have fallen rather sharply over the last 3 days in Australia. The RBA said that it thought growth would moderate, that household credit is weakening significantly, and that inflation will decline over time if demand slows even if inflation is "relatively high" in the short term. It's more than a bit surprising to see AUD remaining as strong as it has been with increasing signs of risk aversion in the market. The better than expected current account balance and building approvals data overnight offered some support.


Bruce

UJ went to the moon ...... hopefully it will make it's trip back down soon ..

Lets see what happens over the next couple of hours.....

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday put the U.S. dollar squarely on the Fed's radar screen, saying its slide against other currencies has led to an "unwelcome" rise in U.S. inflation and may be a factor in inflation expectations.
Bernanke also suggested that the Fed is unlikely to lower official interest rates further, though his remarks suggested that - barring a further rise in inflation expectations - the Fed probably won't contemplate higher rates until there is more stabilization in home prices.
Still, Bernanke appeared to shift the policy debate away from economic strains and toward inflation and a defense of the dollar, which could provide the basis for higher rates eventually.
"We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of our dual mandate," Bernanke said in prepared remarks delivered via satellite to an international monetary conference in Spain.
He said that, along with the Treasury Department, the Fed will "continue to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets." Fed policy, as well as the economy's underlying strength, "will be key factors ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency," he said.
Bernanke also indicated, as Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn has recently, that the Fed's current rate stance is "well positioned" to promote moderate growth and low inflation.
On April 30, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the target fed funds rate at which banks lend money to each other by 0.25 percentage point to 2%, the seventh reduction since September for a total 3.25 percentage points of easing.
An accompanying policy statement - supported by ensuing remarks by Fed officials - suggested policymakers are unlikely to lower rates further, a view further cemented by Bernanke's remarks.
Financial markets have even priced in a rate hike as early as autumn amid signs that higher food and energy prices are affecting inflation expectations.
But Bernanke also signaled that downside risks to the economy remain even though the U.S. is likely to see "better economic conditions" in the second half of the year after a weak first half. Fed officials had previously indicated that the economy may contract in the first half, though that appears unlikely now based on recent economic data.
"Until the housing market, and particularly house prices, shows clearer signs of stabilization, growth risks will remain to the downside," Bernanke said. And while consumer spending has been "a bit better than expected," Bernanke said households still face "significant headwinds" from higher energy prices, a soft job market and tumbling confidence. Recent oil-price gains are also further risk to growth, he said.
Meanwhile, financial market conditions have improved, but they remain "strained" and "some key funding and securitization markets have shown only tentative signs of recovery," he said. He pegged total credit write-downs in the U.S. and Europe at about $300 billion.
Faster export-growth has offset some of those headwinds, Bernanke said, and should continue to do so.
Bernanke's dollar comments in particular are notable since Fed officials usually defer to Treasury officials when discussing exchange rates. But the dollar's decline - which some analysts attribute to the Fed's recent aggressive policy easing - has been blamed in some circles for the recent rise in commodity prices.
"His defense was about as strong as he could make it given the U.S. policy of letting only the U.S. Treasury Secretary speak about matters concerning the dollar," said Miller Tabak strategist Tony Crescenzi.
Bernanke's comments suggest the Fed still sees global economic forces - particularly faster growth in emerging economies and supply constraints - as the main factors in the rise in commodities.
Still, Bernanke said high commodity prices are an "important risk" to the inflation forecast, especially if they become embedded in expectations for future inflation.
Recent consumer surveys suggest households expect inflation to rise significantly over the next year, and they've boosted their longer-term expectations as well.
Bernanke warned that higher inflation expectations could become "self-confirming" and are thus a "significant" upside rise to price stability.
Still, Bernanke said that even if commodity prices just level out "even at high levels," there would be a "relatively rapid moderation in inflation." But he noted that there's a "great range of uncertainty" surrounding futures market forecasts for a leveling out in commodity prices.
Bernanke used the international forum to defend the Fed's rate-cut cycle, which hasn't been matched by other central banks like the European Central Bank.
"Our decisive policy actions were premised on the view that a more gradual reduction in short-term rates could well have failed to contain the financial and economic problems confronting us," he said.
-By Brian Blackstone, Dow Jones Newswires