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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #901
  • May 28, 2008 7:00am May 28, 2008 7:00am
I think this will explain why your hit rate is significantly lowered.
Originally Posted by Peterinforex http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I have a buy order on U/C
why is the consensus a sell order? ( please help)
I though we only sell or buy in the direction that the day started in
or do I sell about below the break of the last candle whichever happens first?

i am a little lost here

Inside Bar is below the Open of the day. We only take shorts off the bottoms of the IB.



you are missing a filter
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=56907&page=2



Quoting blueskies
Daytrading - thanks for advice.

Also looking forward to DaBuschi's views when he's available :-).

Following IBs have formed at 10GMT:
- EJ: Long
- EU: Short
- GJ: Long
- UC: Long
- UJ: Long

Just curious whether my observations are correct? Applying DIBS mechanically, I would take trades on all of them. However, some of you may have hesitation based on your other methods.

Views? Thanks.
  • #902
  • May 28, 2008 7:06am May 28, 2008 7:06am
Quoting Montecristo_
Hi,
can I ask you where I can find more on this strategy ?? (I'd like to learn more on SL).
Here on the FF forum ??
Thanks in advance !
Bye,
Montecristo
Sure. There is not really a thread about this strategy here. Go to http://infiniteyieldforex.blogspot.com/

and apply for the newsletter. You will get the rules for the system as well and a lot of other interesting stuff.

There is a thread, that discusses the same strategy or at least on part of it, but people try to improve it too much and by doing that really taking away to understand why it works for people who are starting with trading or still havenŽt found their edge. I hope IŽve found mine by reading the posts of Peter Crowns. I sometimes read that it just clicked with some people and they understood, what they need to change. I had that same feeling although I have no proof that it did so far as it just happened a couple days ago.

But I can recommend that blog.
  • #903
  • May 28, 2008 7:20am May 28, 2008 7:20am
Quoting daytrading
mades,

forget what the brokers show - 6am GMT is Greenwich Mean Time in the UK (without the addition of any hours i.e. British Summer Time which is GMT+1)

So, if you want to know, go to timeanddate.com and look for GMT without the offset - then draw a line on your chart at the corrsponding time.

regards
daytrading
Hello dear daytrading,

so if i understand correctly, 0600GMT is actually 2 hours before London starts during Winter time and 1 hour before London starts during Summer time.
  • #904
  • May 28, 2008 7:26am May 28, 2008 7:26am
Quoting blueskies
Daytrading - thanks for advice.

Also looking forward to DaBuschi's views when he's available :-).

Following IBs have formed at 10GMT:
- EJ: Long
- EU: Short
- GJ: Long
- UC: Long
- UJ: Long

Just curious whether my observations are correct? Applying DIBS mechanically, I would take trades on all of them. However, some of you may have hesitation based on your other methods.

Views? Thanks.
Hi BlueSkies,
Those IBs look correct, also AUD/USD short - for a loss.

I trust that you are using a Demo (until you see some success) rather than live trading. Also remember that you do not HAVE to take a DIBS trade - Peter Crowns said that he has a way of filtering out the less reliable break-outs, so he certainly does not take them all.

I think that everyone in this thread is working on their own filter rules.

The other big issue is the SL on any free trades. I note that PC was probably taught DIBS by TRT, and he in turn (from his latest newsletter) is fond of a 20 period sma (at least on daily charts).

If anyone is interested in 2 of his other systems, look him up on FF (TheRealThing), go to his website and register for the details of ONS and FS and you will also get his monthly newsletter - very informative in my opinion.

Ian
  • #905
  • May 28, 2008 7:28am May 28, 2008 7:28am
Quoting DaBuschi
Sure. There is not really a thread about this strategy here. Go to http://infiniteyieldforex.blogspot.com/

and apply for the newsletter. You will get the rules for the system as well and a lot of other interesting stuff.

If anyone has read TheRealThing's posts, or the PDF that PeterCrowns shared called 'Trading for Infinite Yield- Utility Theory and You', this is the same person. In fact, I think this may be the guy who taught PeterCrowns the DIBS method. The blog is positively chock-full of gold!

I've split off a subaccount to trade the First-Strike method for myself. I have different trades on, since I was counting Tuesday as the week's open, but I'll be back on track starting Monday. To me, the power of the ideas is much more important than the specific entries in one week out of a series of years.
  • #906
  • May 28, 2008 7:31am May 28, 2008 7:31am
Quoting Archiphage
To me, the power of the ideas is much more important than the specific entries in one week out of a series of years.
Exactly. That is the key. Understand, why they work and you will succeed on the long term, because that makes you follow the rules even in times, where it doesnŽt work so good.
  • #907
  • May 28, 2008 7:36am May 28, 2008 7:36am
Quoting mades
Hello dear daytrading,

so if i understand correctly, 0600GMT is actually 2 hours before London starts during Winter time and 1 hour before London starts during Summer time.

mades,

No, the UK during the summer is GMT+1 (Brit. Summer Time is currently 13:22 vs GMT 12:22)

GMT is the meridian line on the globe that runs through Greenwich in London. (hence the name Greenwich Mean Time) Time zones across the world are set off from this line; either plus in hours or minus in hours and it never changes - GMT stays the same regardless of inventions to save electricity like Daylight Savings Time or inventions to make british farmers more productive like British Summer Time.

Measured on GMT, (or now UCT since the 1970's) we know on the planet how many hours we have to offset for New York for example or Melbourne or Tokyo. (that never changes).

The above mentioned inventions like DST, BST etc. are confusing the hell out of people - I can see that. Please forget as well about at what time the traders actually physically arrive in their offices in London - some are there earlier others later - it doesn't make a difference since the trading books of the banks get shifted into the daylight trading zones.

PeterCrowns has taken 6am GMT as a reference point that makes sense because then or shortly thereafter the bulk of european FX transactions will start for the next 9 to 10 hours.

Its simply a rule based on observation - and if anyone bends that rule by one hour, well, I don't think that over 1000 trades you will be better or worse off.

Deviate any further, you might catch bad trades from the asian session or miss entries in the UK session.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #908
  • May 28, 2008 7:40am May 28, 2008 7:40am
A free ride

TS
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Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #909
  • May 28, 2008 7:46am May 28, 2008 7:46am
Quoting TradeStar
It's interesting.

This incorrect IB, I happen to take yesterday by oversight seems to running fine so far.

TS
Didn't go too far.
Stopped out for BE

TS
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Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #910
  • May 28, 2008 7:47am May 28, 2008 7:47am
@ Jarroo and everybody else in the USD/JPY trade.

DonŽt exit too early. Looking at the bigger picture, we could see some resistance here soon (black line), but if it breaks through, that could end up as a major move.

Just my 2 cents
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  • #911
  • May 28, 2008 7:50am May 28, 2008 7:50am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi BlueSkies,
~~
I think that everyone in this thread is working on their own filter rules.
~~
Ian
Which would be a pity. We should stick to the method given.
I'm sure Peter stated that when faced with a choice of trades (as per BlueSkies post) he took the strongest long and the strongest short.

We just need to be able to identify the strongest move at the time when the breakout bar forms.
Good Trading
  • #912
  • May 28, 2008 7:51am May 28, 2008 7:51am
Dear Daytrading,

Thank you for your explanation, although i know what GMT is and it wasn't necessary. Peter explicitly said "Time matters" (check his last reply) and from my own observation, the 2 large openings (Frankfurt and London) are usually very visible on the chart, even some strategies like BigBen or London Breakout are based on these opening times.
What i wanted to have clear, is what Peter meant by 06.00 GMT which according to my understanding is 1 hour before "official" London starts in the summer and 2 hours in the winter.
London session officially starts 08.00 local time (= 08.00GMT in the winter and 07.00GMT in the summer).
  • #913
  • May 28, 2008 7:53am May 28, 2008 7:53am
Quoting aud
Which would be a pity. We should stick to the method given.
I'm sure Peter stated that when faced with a choice of trades (as per BlueSkies post) he took the strongest long and the strongest short.

We just need to be able to identify the strongest move at the time when the breakout bar forms.
Once youŽre able to identify a trending market, youŽll know which trades to take and which not, although always keep in mind that, the trades you donŽt take could turn out to be the biggest winners.
  • #914
  • May 28, 2008 7:56am May 28, 2008 7:56am
Quoting DaBuschi
@ Jarroo and everybody else in the USD/JPY trade.

DonŽt exit too early. Looking at the bigger picture, we could see some resistance here soon (black line), but if it breaks through, that could end up as a major move.

Just my 2 cents
My exit is the 1st hourly close below the 20 EMA. If it should fall back to b/e in the meantime, so be it.
  • #915
  • May 28, 2008 8:02am May 28, 2008 8:02am
Quoting mades
Dear Daytrading,

Thank you for your explanation, although i know what GMT is and it wasn't necessary. Peter explicitly said "Time matters" (check his last reply) and from my own observation, the 2 large openings (Frankfurt and London) are usually very visible on the chart, even some strategies like BigBen or London Breakout are based on these opening times.
What i wanted to have clear, is what Peter meant by 06.00 GMT which according to my understanding is 1 hour before "official" London starts in the summer and 2 hours in the winter.
London session officially starts 08.00 local time (= 08.00GMT in the winter and 07.00GMT in the summer).
mades,

please forget about where it starts "officially" - during the week, trading does not stop. the order book gets shifted into the daylight zones and heavy trading in London and Frankfurt is well underway by 8am GMT - do you think banks with their headoffice in London for example leave the book with the orders in a branch in Tokyo when they are tired and going home?

Most banks and funds have shift traders who will stay overnight in order to keep the books at "home".

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #916
  • May 28, 2008 8:17am May 28, 2008 8:17am
Dear Daytrading,

i am not sure if we understand each other. Trading of course happens 24/7, even during weekends. The "official" start is about when the majority of traders and orders kicks in. Even the parent thread to this one (No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink) started with time-actions-analysis. You are right with everything you said, but unfortunately i don't know what you wanted to explain to me beside the thing that the large institutional traders don't follow the official time exactly and sometimes (like today for example) place their orders sooner. If there is something i missed in your words, i am truly sorry for it (English is not my native language).

P.S. To me, the most logical 'start of the day' for the DIBS should be 1 hour before official Frankfurt opening (to include most of the morning orders). Please correct me if you think otherwise.
  • #917
  • May 28, 2008 8:34am May 28, 2008 8:34am
Quoting mades
Dear Daytrading,

Thank you for your explanation, although i know what GMT is and it wasn't necessary. Peter explicitly said "Time matters" (check his last reply) and from my own observation, the 2 large openings (Frankfurt and London) are usually very visible on the chart, even some strategies like BigBen or London Breakout are based on these opening times.
What i wanted to have clear, is what Peter meant by 06.00 GMT which according to my understanding is 1 hour before "official" London starts in the summer and 2 hours in the winter.
London session officially starts 08.00 local time (= 08.00GMT in the winter and 07.00GMT in the summer).
Yes, it means just as you have stated. The basic idea is that many 'trending day' moves tend to start from that hour. Starting an hour early or late will probably not mean the difference between winning and losing over a long series of trades... but it may be the difference between fantastic returns and super-fantastic returns.
  • #918
  • May 28, 2008 8:56am May 28, 2008 8:56am
Quoting mades
Dear Daytrading,

i am not sure if we understand each other. Trading of course happens 24/7, even during weekends. The "official" start is about when the majority of traders and orders kicks in. Even the parent thread to this one (No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink) started with time-actions-analysis. You are right with everything you said, but unfortunately i don't know what you wanted to explain to me beside the thing that the large institutional traders don't follow the official time exactly and sometimes (like today for example) place their orders sooner. If there is something i missed in your words, i am truly sorry for it (English is not my native language).

P.S. To me, the most logical 'start of the day' for the DIBS should be 1 hour before official Frankfurt opening (to include most of the morning orders). Please correct me if you think otherwise.
you've got it, mades -

the essence of it is that sometimes applying what has been established as a rule is a simple but good thing.

i am not trying to pick on you but reading through the original thread and this extension of it proves some of PeterCrown's observations regarding the ability of traders to translate knowledge given to them in the right or wrong way.

the message I am trying to convey is: read and understand in the right way.

if someone tells you not to put your hand on a hot plate coz it will hurt, would you ask them about the chemical and physical process that takes place while your flesh is burning and the nerve signals that are sent to your brain which cause the pain?

i could go on and on - not at you in particular, mades - but in general when I see that a lot of aspiring traders are too intelligent/inquisitive for their own good.

trading is a simple manner and the only obstacle for many is the fact that they are not dumb enough to follow the rules - some call it discipline.

i usually have not got the liberty/time to post as much as i did today and I got drawn into this thread - because it contains immense value in the sense that PeterCrowns has shared something so simple and effective which does not need to be made complicated.

Take it for what it is - one way of making money in the long run.

No offence to anyone, but I have to get back to business.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #919
  • May 28, 2008 9:03am May 28, 2008 9:03am
Quoting HouseTrader
Hello, davema!

That's almost exactly what I did. But I took the trade at the upper limit of the 2nd bar, an put my SL in the same price as you posted... That gave me a couple more pips and a better Risk/Reward ratio, but that's the essence .... what I call the "perverted" DIBS setup

Thanks for the kind words!

Cheers and pips!

HT
Hello HT,
I like your perverted DIBS setup. As you pointed out, getting in at the upper limit of the second bar gets you an earlier entry with a better risk/reward ratio than waiting for the original IB to break. Thanks for your input!http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Thanks,
Dave
  • #920
  • May 28, 2008 9:04am May 28, 2008 9:04am
To Archiphage and Daytrading:

Thank you for your words of wisdom. I am finally starting to understand what it means that "trading should be boring" in order to succeed.
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