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  • #881
  • May 28, 2008 4:56am May 28, 2008 4:56am
Quoting blueskies
Hi, I apply DIBS strictly in accordance with PeterCrown's rules, but somehow feel maybe I have not fully understood the issues/important points/principles behind this method.

Hope you could share with me what I should really understand of this method so I can apply the method more appropriately. [I am sure there are others who are also in situation as me - applying DIBS 100%, and we will benefit from your sharing.]

Thanks!
hi blueskies and everyone
i think you will find that those gaining most from this method are those trading the asian session. however for learning purposes i prefer to stick with peters rules and draw my line in the sand at london open. if this results in fewer trades i don't mind as this is still new and always good learning to watch and wait. be patient and while waiting for i/b's re-read posts and charts. well done all you successful pippers.
joy
  • #882
  • May 28, 2008 4:56am May 28, 2008 4:56am
Quoting DaBuschi
Of course I was not on my PC. Funny picture - me on a PC. I meant @ my PC. Not an excuse that English isnīt my native language as my future wife is American

@ blueskies - I come back to your post later, as I got some stuff to do first. Hope you donīt mind
We understood Dabus.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #883
  • May 28, 2008 5:20am May 28, 2008 5:20am
Quoting Shefa
Hi Blueskies,

It is not only higher probability of pairs, but also of directions.

I, at least, do not have at the moment a set of rules that will avoide entering losing trades.

Shefa.
We are not supposed to "avoide losing trades". It's part of the trading game. Remember guys: small losses - big wins ::: small risk trades - high reward trades. Read and demo trade.

Quoting Rocroy
Thanks, NAL.

I hoped that this would a method that would work without any discretion, but your comments say the opposite. Shame if that is the way DIBS needs to be applied...

But, we haven't sofar had any good runners with pyramiding positions? So even if the winn/loss ratio is negative, the runners should turn the profit positive.

R
Trading to me always involves discretion. But its all about how you interpret that word. For me this has been a great thread and it has opened my eyes to things that I'm sure will make me a better trader (I already feel better). A big thanks to PeterCrown, Bemac and Jarroo for taking me on this journey. I loooove it!

Quoting aud
I would assume it's the other way round, ie oil and gold responding to the U turn on the $.
Maybe, I am not sure, but I was looking at oil futures and it actually started to move a few minutes ahead of the move in the currencies.
  • #884
  • May 28, 2008 5:30am May 28, 2008 5:30am
Quoting joypips
hi blueskies and everyone ~~
ihowever for learning purposes i prefer to stick with peters rules and draw my line in the sand at london open.
joy

I'm starting the day one hour before the London open, which is my take on what Peter was doing, ie four and a half hours ago.
Good Trading
  • #885
  • May 28, 2008 5:33am May 28, 2008 5:33am
I was thinking about trading the hot hand and have made this observation about todays majors against the USD: GBP is the only pair that it's still stronger than the USD when looking at the daily open price. The weakest is obviously JPY. That should make the GBPJPY rise dont you think from todays open? If the dollar is to continue its strong run I would play it against the JPY, and if the dollar starts falling then GBP is the one to buy.
  • #886
  • May 28, 2008 5:34am May 28, 2008 5:34am
Quoting NowAndLater
Might I suggest that you read Peter's posts,they are not so many and really explains "the issues/important points/principles behind this method". And read them more than once. They are really excellent and the y explain a lot of Peter's thinking.
Just to clarify: I have followed the other "Free Coffee..." thread (when Peter first introduced DIBS) and this thread right from beginning. In particular, I have read Peter's posts several times to make sure I understand and apply his method correctly.

But my lack of trading experience clearly affects my learning because while other people have been able to apply DIBS profitably, so far I have more losses than winners.

Of course, I don't expect DIBS (or any method) to give 100% success rate. But still I have the feeling my losses were due to me having only a superficial understading of DIBS. I was hoping experienced traders out there would be willing to share their knowledge :-)

Thanks!

P.S. I apply DIBS "mechanically", so to speak.
  • #887
  • May 28, 2008 5:39am May 28, 2008 5:39am
Quoting NowAndLater
We are not supposed to "avoide losing trades". It's part of the trading game. Remember guys: small losses - big wins ::: small risk trades - high reward trades. Read and demo trade.



Trading to me always involves discretion. But its all about how you interpret that word. For me this has been a great thread and it has opened my eyes to things that I'm sure will make me a better trader (I already feel better). A big thanks to PeterCrown, Bemac and Jarroo for taking me on this journey. I loooove it!


Maybe, I am not sure, but I was looking at oil futures and it actually started to move a few minutes ahead of the move in the currencies.
I agree with ya NowAndLater. First off, trading with a methodology or system is discretionary unless done by an EA. Like I said before give this methodology to 10 people with the same rules..and you would get 10 different results. So everyone should be striving to get positive results even if we don't get the same results.

Secondly, there isn't a system that doesn't have losing trades, it's just part of the game. The trick is try to cut the losers short and let the winners run. This is the part that I an trying to implement in my trading..let the winners run. I tend to take out my winners way too early.
  • #888
  • May 28, 2008 5:41am May 28, 2008 5:41am
Quoting NowAndLater
I was thinking about trading the hot hand and have made this observation about todays majors against the USD: GBP is the only pair that it's still stronger than the USD when looking at the daily open price. The weakest is obviously JPY. That should make the GBPJPY rise dont you think from todays open? If the dollar is to continue its strong run I would play it against the JPY, and if the dollar starts falling then GBP is the one to buy.
Great observation...
  • #889
  • May 28, 2008 5:44am May 28, 2008 5:44am
[quote=blueskies;2023489]Just to clarify: I have followed the other "Free Coffee..." thread (when Peter first introduced DIBS) and this thread right from beginning. In particular, I have read Peter's posts several times to make sure I understand and apply his method correctly.

But my lack of trading experience clearly affects my learning because while other people have been able to apply DIBS profitably, so far I have more losses than winners.

Of course, I don't expect DIBS (or any method) to give 100% success rate. But still I have the feeling my losses were due to me having only a superficial understading of DIBS. I was hoping experienced traders out there would be willing to share their knowledge :-)

Thanks!

blueskies,

Peters method has a win rate of less than 50% in the long run - but is still profitable - like most "longer" term methods.

Think of it like this: (and I am averaging here, so don't nail me on the pip)
Let's say you have 10 trades with an average risk of 15 pips (I call it 1R, so every time you lose it costs you 15 pips) and your average winner is 10R (meaning when your in a winning trade, you make 10 times what you are risking), then you can have a strategy that has a 10% winning rate (or 1 trade out of 10) and still be profitable.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #890
  • May 28, 2008 5:57am May 28, 2008 5:57am
Quoting aud
I'm starting the day one hour before the London open, which is my take on what Peter was doing, ie four and a half hours ago.

Shouldn't it be 2 hours before the London open? He said "6GMT" (which is actually 5GMT on GMT charts like IBFX).
  • #891
  • May 28, 2008 6:01am May 28, 2008 6:01am
Here's your shot at pyramiding into USD/JPY if you took the previous long.
  • #892
  • May 28, 2008 6:02am May 28, 2008 6:02am
Quoting daytrading
blueskies,

Peters method has a win rate of less than 50% in the long run - but is still profitable - like most "longer" term methods.

Think of it like this: (and I am averaging here, so don't nail me on the pip)
Let's say you have 10 trades with an average risk of 15 pips (I call it 1R, so every time you lose it costs you 15 pips) and your average winner is 10R (meaning when your in a winning trade, you make 10 times what you are risking), then you can have a strategy that has a 10% winning rate (or 1 trade out of 10) and still be profitable.

regards
daytrading
Daytrading - thanks for advice.

Also looking forward to DaBuschi's views when he's available :-).

Following IBs have formed at 10GMT:
- EJ: Long
- EU: Short
- GJ: Long
- UC: Long
- UJ: Long

Just curious whether my observations are correct? Applying DIBS mechanically, I would take trades on all of them. However, some of you may have hesitation based on your other methods.

Views? Thanks.
  • #893
  • May 28, 2008 6:03am May 28, 2008 6:03am
Quoting blueskies
Hi, I apply DIBS strictly in accordance with PeterCrown's rules, but somehow feel maybe I have not fully understood the issues/important points/principles behind this method.

Hope you could share with me what I should really understand of this method so I can apply the method more appropriately. [I am sure there are others who are also in situation as me - applying DIBS 100%, and we will benefit from your sharing.]

Thanks!
Alright, Iīll give it a shot and hope that you can follow my thoughts.

First thing we need to ask ourselfes is - when are IBs formed.

Answer: When Price retraces or when trading is quite in general - for example on holidays or when there is not so much activity because the stock markets of the involved currencies are closed. Please see the two green circels on my screenshot. There is an IB forming right now, as Iīm writing this and the probably were a lot of IBs on the holiday on some peoples charts due to different price providers.

Question: Which IBs are of value to us?
Answer: The IBs forming in a retracement as the give us an entry in the hopefully continuing trend.

So the IB forming right now, would probably of value, as we will get into the trend, if it continues. I painted a possible scenario in my screenshot and also the SL we are using for this trade (red line). As you can see, our first TP will be hit and we will have a so called "free ride" but also our SL will be hit during the next retracement.

This is due to the fact that the IB formed early in the current retracement. Its the first bar after the last large move and this will happen a lot. Due to this we will get stopped out a lot. We get lucky if an IB forms at the low of a retracement in an uptrend as happened here to - please see Jarroos screenshots for this.

I finish this later. Gotta go for lunch now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.JPG Size: 99 KB
  • #894
  • May 28, 2008 6:06am May 28, 2008 6:06am
mades

Yes he did, I never did relate to the time on the charts. I have taken the liberty of assuming that 0600gmt would now be 0700gmt with DST in the UK and Euro, as I could not find any major centres sessions that now opened at 0600gmt. Frankfurt would now open at 0700gmt.
Good Trading
  • #895
  • May 28, 2008 6:08am May 28, 2008 6:08am
Quoting mades
Shouldn't it be 2 hours before the London open? He said "6GMT" (which is actually 5GMT on GMT charts like IBFX).
mades,

forget what the brokers show - 6am GMT is Greenwich Mean Time in the UK (without the addition of any hours i.e. British Summer Time which is GMT+1)

So, if you want to know, go to timeanddate.com and look for GMT without the offset - then draw a line on your chart at the corrsponding time.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #896
  • May 28, 2008 6:29am May 28, 2008 6:29am
Quoting blueskies
Daytrading - thanks for advice.

Also looking forward to DaBuschi's views when he's available :-).

Following IBs have formed at 10GMT:
- EJ: Long
- EU: Short
- GJ: Long
- UC: Long
- UJ: Long

Just curious whether my observations are correct? Applying DIBS mechanically, I would take trades on all of them. However, some of you may have hesitation based on your other methods.

Views? Thanks.
blueskies,

I won't go any further on this except to say the following:

you have to know some simple matters before anything else. know the relationsship between a methods expectancy (pos. or neg.), a methods risk/reward ratio (pos. or neg.) and a methods win-loss ratio (pos. or neg.) and ultimately the number of occurences in a given time(frame) in order to know whether the method will ultimately make you rich or not.

And one last clue: the factors don't all have to be positive to make money.

regards
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #897
  • May 28, 2008 6:46am May 28, 2008 6:46am
Quoting DaBuschi

If you look at my screenshot, youīll see two blue triangles. The first one is based on a different strategy (actually TRTīs strategy) where you one buy and one sell around the weekly open and if one of them is hit, you cancel the other one. That way you try to catch the weekly trend and close the trade on friday if SL is not hit first.

DaBuschi
Hi,
can I ask you where I can find more on this strategy ?? (I'd like to learn more on SL).
Here on the FF forum ??
Thanks in advance !
Bye,
Montecristo
  • #898
  • May 28, 2008 6:51am May 28, 2008 6:51am
Quote
Alright, Iīll give it a shot and hope that you can follow my thoughts.

First thing we need to ask ourselfes is - when are IBs formed.

Answer: When Price retraces or when trading is quite in general - for example on holidays or when there is not so much activity because the stock markets of the involved currencies are closed. Please see the two green circels on my screenshot. There is an IB forming right now, as Iīm writing this and the probably were a lot of IBs on the holiday on some peoples charts due to different price providers.

Question: Which IBs are of value to us?
Answer: The IBs forming in a retracement as the give us an entry in the hopefully continuing trend.

So the IB forming right now, would probably of value, as we will get into the trend, if it continues. I painted a possible scenario in my screenshot and also the SL we are using for this trade (red line). As you can see, our first TP will be hit and we will have a so called "free ride" but also our SL will be hit during the next retracement.

This is due to the fact that the IB formed early in the current retracement. Its the first bar after the last large move and this will happen a lot. Due to this we will get stopped out a lot. We get lucky if an IB forms at the low of a retracement in an uptrend as happened here to - please see Jarroos screenshots for this.

I finish this later. Gotta go for lunch now.


Thanks for taking your time to educate on IB, knowing these will keep traders out of most losing trades.

EU IB formed base on your analysis and the big candle move, closed below the daily opening.

am keep a watchful eyes on this

thanks bro
  • #899
  • May 28, 2008 6:55am May 28, 2008 6:55am
Quoting DaBuschi
Alright, Iīll give it a shot and hope that you can follow my thoughts.

First thing we need to ask ourselfes is - when are IBs formed.

Answer: When Price retraces or when trading is quite in general - for example on holidays or when there is not so much activity because the stock markets of the involved currencies are closed. Please see the two green circels on my screenshot. There is an IB forming right now, as Iīm writing this and the probably were a lot of IBs on the holiday on some peoples charts due to different price providers.

Question: Which IBs are of value to us?
Answer: The IBs forming in a retracement as the give us an entry in the hopefully continuing trend.

So the IB forming right now, would probably of value, as we will get into the trend, if it continues. I painted a possible scenario in my screenshot and also the SL we are using for this trade (red line). As you can see, our first TP will be hit and we will have a so called "free ride" but also our SL will be hit during the next retracement.

This is due to the fact that the IB formed early in the current retracement. Its the first bar after the last large move and this will happen a lot. Due to this we will get stopped out a lot. We get lucky if an IB forms at the low of a retracement in an uptrend as happened here to - please see Jarroos screenshots for this.

I finish this later. Gotta go for lunch now.
Okay back from lunch.

As I said, Jarrooīs screenshot shows an IB that is the most favorable for us as we get in almost at the best point of the retracement and as trends usually form higher highs and lower lows and vice versa, there is a good chance to catch one of these good runs. Could also be, that the trend ends after the next high and we probably didnīt move our SL because we were waiting for a new higher low to form and we get stopped out - sh.. happens.

That brings us to the third question:

How do we get in the trend without an IB forming?

Answer: This is not so easy, but looking at charts and the waves of a trend youīll see, that most of the time when there is an upmove, that the bars make higher highs, sometimes up to ten bars in a row. Some even make lower lows than the former bar, but more important make higher higs. Once there is no higher high, but a lower low compared to the last bar, there is a good chance, that the price started retracing. And here the same thing happens. The bars make lower lows. Once that end, we should look for an entry. We will have losses here as well, there is no doubt, but we could get into a trend on a lower level.

So technically you could place a buy above the last bar that formed in a retracement. Our SL would be the low of that bar. If the retracement ends with the current bar, youīre in. It might be, that our order is triggered and then price continues to retrace and we will be stopped out, but the same thing can happen with the IBs. I recommend to switch to a smaller time frame e.g. 5 min to see, if the downtrend in the 5min TF is really going to end. Same here - there is no guarantee that itīs right what we read there, but itīs the same with the IB.

The IB strategy is only based on price action. No indicators involved. The fact that we just buy above the daily open and sell below the daily open is, that we try to go with the trend and if the price moves away from daily open, it could be the trend continuation. If we get stopped out, it was probably just a retracement or a sideways market.

P.S.: The screenshot attached is the same as the one in my last post, so donīt expect anything new here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.JPG Size: 99 KB
  • #900
  • May 28, 2008 6:55am May 28, 2008 6:55am
I can understand how it feels, when folks try some variations to this approach by bringing their knowledge from different methods and experience and make profitable trades and I am sitting there waiting to get a valid signal based on puristic approach and doing nothing.

Thoughts starts crossing our mind:
- Is the basic definition good enough to make money?
- Especially too many IBs get stopped out.
- Do we need to be knowledgeable like other in the forum to try some variations to make money?

My two cents to this situation is:

- This is the starting point where people tend to start jumping systems.

- I guarantee you are not alone in feeling like this; (for that matter any method followers)

- Past couple of posts from daytrading are very valuable inputs

- We need to understand the strengths and weakness of the system to be able believe in it and go with it.

- To do decent amount of back testing to get a comfort level ourselves.


Sorry for the unsolicited advice. Nothing wrong in applying Dibbs mechanically as long as you understand what is reasonable to expect in the long term. If you look at USD/JPY we got an IB as per definition which would have given a free ride as well.

All the very best

TradeStrar

Quoting daytrading
blueskies,

I won't go any further on this except to say the following:

you have to know some simple matters before anything else. know the relationsship between a methods expectancy (pos. or neg.), a methods risk/reward ratio (pos. or neg.) and a methods win-loss ratio (pos. or neg.) and ultimately the number of occurences in a given time(frame) in order to know whether the method will ultimately make you rich or not.

And one last clue: the factors don't all have to be positive to make money.

regards
daytrading
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
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