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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #821
  • May 27, 2008 10:38pm May 27, 2008 10:38pm
Quoting Rocroy
Agree, waiting for bounce from that supporting trendline - and from that mysterious 161 fib level
You need to go down to 15min chart to draw the fib properly.

Getting in when resisting tl is broken. Note that supporting tl needs to stay valid. ...and adding position when IB top passed!

R

Attachment
Jaroo showed us the 4hr channel which support the down. 1 hr channel showed the up with trend line support. A bit uncertainty here. let see what gonna happen.
  • #822
  • May 27, 2008 10:52pm May 27, 2008 10:52pm
Quoting NowAndLater
I would say we are in a range in the shortterm, and very close to the major downward trendline. On the weekly chart it looks like a flag even. If the midterm uptrend from mid-March is to continue we need to break that trendline, otherwise we might see the longterm trend conintue down.
Hi NAL,

Thank you for the charts. I think as you do, and will check if Jarroo wrote something about it.

Good morning everybody. I wish us all a PPP (=Positive Pipsing Profits).

Shefa.
  • #823
  • May 27, 2008 11:03pm May 27, 2008 11:03pm
Good morning all. Just entered a short trade in UCHF and have a pending short in UJ as well. Lets see how they play out.
  • #824
  • May 27, 2008 11:08pm May 27, 2008 11:08pm
I took my 1 pip profit and got out of the u/y. I did not like what price was doing. I wish all of you that are still in the best! I'm going hunting else where.

golferguy99
PIP'N
  • #825
  • May 27, 2008 11:10pm May 27, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting golferguy99
I took my 1 pip profit and got out of the u/y. I did not like what price was doing. I wish all of you that are still in the best! I'm going hunting else where.

golferguy99
Good eye golfer.

We don't like retraces after the break. We want Price to run away from the break.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #826
  • May 27, 2008 11:13pm May 27, 2008 11:13pm
Short CHF too
  • #827
  • May 27, 2008 11:15pm May 27, 2008 11:15pm
Quoting NowAndLater
Good morning all. Just entered a short trade in UCHF and have a pending short in UJ as well. Lets see how they play out.

I'm in with you and bob.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #828
  • May 27, 2008 11:23pm May 27, 2008 11:23pm
Quoting NowAndLater
Your risk is always the range of the IB + 2 pips for just over and below the IB + spread. So you are risking 19pips for both buy and sell, the difference is where you put on the spread. In a buy-stop you add the spread to the entryprice, in a sell-stop you add the spread to the SL. Hope this helps.
Thanks NAL,

I shell use 2pps breakout + 3 pps spread = 5 pps.
entering 2 minilots - increase the IB S.L. range by 10 pps. For me, it looks like very big adition, but probably, there is nothing to do about it. Right?

Shefa.
  • #829
  • May 27, 2008 11:33pm May 27, 2008 11:33pm
Quoting jarroo
Hey Shefa.

I understand that we have been in a downtrend on the Usd/Jpy since July 2007. But the current short term trend on the Daily has been bullish since mid March 2008. Is this the beginning of a long term uptrend? Maybe.
Hi Jarroo,
You think U/J daily trend is up, and took the short DIBS position.
You do not consider the daily trend in your DIBS decisions ?

Thanks for a reply,

Shefa.
  • #830
  • May 27, 2008 11:43pm May 27, 2008 11:43pm
Quoting Shefa
Thanks NAL,

I shell use 2pps breakout + 3 pps spread = 5 pps.
entering 2 minilots - increase the IB S.L. range by 10 pps. For me, it looks like very big adition, but probably, there is nothing to do about it. Right?

Shefa.
It's not 5pips per lot, it's 5 pips per trade. The position size doesn't matter. Or maybe I'm not understanding what you are saying here.
  • #831
  • May 27, 2008 11:44pm May 27, 2008 11:44pm
Quoting jarroo
I'm in with you and bob.
Free ride in UCHF now, nice start to the day , a lot of support here though along with the 61,8% fibof yesterdays move. Pending UJ removed since it broke to the upside, and Im only intersted in shorts there
  • #832
  • Edited May 28, 2008 2:28am May 27, 2008 11:54pm | Edited May 28, 2008 2:28am
Quoting Shefa
Hi Jarroo,
You think U/J daily trend is up, and took the short DIBS position.
You do not consider the daily trend in your DIBS decisions ?

Thanks for a reply,

Shefa.

Yes, I do look at the 4 hour, Daily and Weekly trends.


Here is something that will really blow your mind Shefa.

I started with this trade (1st chart) short on the Usd/Jpy looking at IB between 0000 GMT and 0500 GMT. Then I got out of that trade for a -3 pips loss.

Then I went with this trade (2nd Chart) long Usd/Jpy IB off the 0500 GMT Open IB.
Attached Images
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #833
  • May 28, 2008 12:12am May 28, 2008 12:12am
Dear all,

I am posing a PM I received which has some relevance to this thread. I will leave the posters name out for obvious reasons - everyone has the right to their opinions and I don't want to have a fight on my conscience - so, please extract only the valuable information from it.

regards,
daytrading

Hi,

i am in the DIBS thread since the benning. Trading this strictrly with Peter rules i have only losses. Maybe is because i am testing it with a broker with 4 pip spread or more.

reading your posts yesterday i see that you see some scalp potential in this. Or have similar methods. I read other posts by you in the past but you not mentioned the methods.

is it possible to describe how do you trade? If you prefer to not reveal i will understand.

i am curious because you is the unique person with years of trading that is a daytrader or scalper. Here on FF there was Linuxtroll who claims to have a 99% hit rate trading using ticker and 5 second charts. But after he started to sell books and now selling a oscillator for R$600,00 he lost his credibility...at least to me. And when i see people like Peter and TRT taking about 50% year, is difficult to believe in there kind of claims.

do you think, or your experience show if it is possible high hit rates like 80% (and for consequence extremaly big returns)or even more scalping a few pips day after day?

sorry to bother you but i think you are the correct person to ask it.

thanks in advance.

Dear ******,

first let me say this: I have looked at Peter's way of trading and for me as a pure intraday trader, there are simply not enough opportunities in one day (sometimes no inside bars for days). Nevertheless, I think it is a workable method, even with 4 pips spread. (Not every signal results in a very profitable trade, you know). Overall, it is a "low risk" entry mehtod combined with market direction - although I don't agree 100% on this rule. (only take longs when the price break is above y'day's close etc.) As an intraday trader, you can see minor trend changes happen within a day - regardless of the major trend/range - and if you are like me taking anything from 2 to 10 ticks from the market, countertrends are as important.

High hit rates (above 80%) are of course possible in this scenario but they come at a price.

For those type of trades, you need to have the right "tools" so to speak: 1 tick spread (max. 2) with guaranteed instant fills. (most, if not all retail brokers either fail on that aspect, or make you fail because they don't "allow" you to scalp over the long term)

I won't go into the details right now, but you can only use market orders since a good number of the trades only last a few seconds - limit orders are against the momentum, buy or sell stops are often not filled or if they are filled, it's not fast enough.

And last but not least, you need size behind the trades - someone I know recently said something very true to me about the difference between ultra short term trading and position trading:

"it is easier to make 1 pip with 500 lots than to make 500 pips with 1 lot"

P.S. ask yourself if you would fit into the category to which I belong - including the technical necessities - and I'll be happy to tell you how I trade.

regards,
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #834
  • Edited 12:43am May 28, 2008 12:18am | Edited 12:43am
Quoting NowAndLater
It's not 5pips per lot, it's 5 pips per trade. The position size doesn't matter. Or maybe I'm not understanding what you are saying here.
Hi NAL,

I did not explain myself right: The range of the IB increases by 5 pps only. But as I use 2 minilots, the overall S.L. price for the trade increases by 10 pps.
I belive it is true for trades of many methods, but it amaized me as I did not use to enter more than 1 minilot per trade.

One more point is that we are with the 2 minilots all the way to the S.L., but remain with only 1 minilot at the very beginning of the trade. So, to make an "even" to the S.L. - we need our trend to continue, at least, one more IB range. This is where the "free trade" comes to decrease the risk, and this is why, I think, small bars are so important. Also, this is why I think it is important to learn eliminating false trades, as much as possible.
Something I was thinking of..........

I also have my USD/CHF "free trade" minus 1pps, as I was not sure the price will continue down, and close 1 minilot 1 pps too early.
I put the t.p. at 161.8% fib = 1.0230. See what happens........

Cheers,

Shefa.
  • #835
  • May 28, 2008 12:20am May 28, 2008 12:20am
Quoting daytrading
Dear all,

I am posing a PM I received regards,
daytrading
Thanks daytrading. Keep them coming if you can.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #836
  • May 28, 2008 12:31am May 28, 2008 12:31am
Quoting Shefa
Hi NAL,

I did not explain myself right: The range if the IB increases by 5 pps only. But as I use 2 minilots, the overall S.L. price for the trade increases by 10 pps.
I belive it is true for trades of many methods, but it amaized me as I did not use to enter more than 1 minilot per trade.

One more point is that we are with the 2 minilots all the way to the S.L., but remain with only 1 minilot at the very beginning of the trade. So, to make an "even" to the S.L. - we need our trend to continue, at least, one more IB range. This is where the "free trade" comes to decrease the risk, and this is why, I think, small bars are so important. Also, this is why I think it is important to learn eliminating false trades, as much as possible.
Something I was thinking of..........

I also have my USD/CHF "free trade" minus 1pps, as I was not sure the price will continue down, and close 1 minilot 1 pps too early.
I put the t.p. at 161.8% fib = 1.0230. See what happens........

Cheers,

Shefa.
It's one of the reasons to why I dont take big IB's, risk:reward ratio is not as good. But the IB range for my comfort is different with different pairs, it all depends the average daily range for me.
And yes the cost for 2 minilots is obviously twice as big as for 1 minilot, but it's still 5 pips. The difference is that every pip is worth twice as much with 2 minilots. Remeber that its not about opening 2 minilots or 5 or whatever. Your positionsize should be according to the amount of % of your account you are willing to risk on a trade. So if you are risking 2% on one trade and that, after calculating your stoploss, equals to 1 minilot then you will close half of that minilot at 1:1 and let the other half run.
From where to where have you drawn your fib?
  • #837
  • May 28, 2008 12:32am May 28, 2008 12:32am
Quoting daytrading

"it is easier to make 1 pip with 500 lots than to make 500 pips with 1 lot"
This is interesting. I'm sure all of us would believe this is true on the first read. 1 pip sounds really simple. Here comes the BUT - What about stops and risk? If you go for 1 pip and it goes against you by 1 pip are you out? If not then how many pips do you risk?

TP
  • #838
  • May 28, 2008 12:33am May 28, 2008 12:33am
daytrading, might I suggest you get the person to post their trades here (as other do). It's helped me to see trades others have taken, but as your PM'er is asking for help and if they can withstand any constructive criticism, they will at least get on the same wave length as the others here.

Some are far quicker than myself to jump into trades and Peter did say he only trades if he feels he would be mad not to. (Not an exact quote!) However I had assumed that those taking more trades were making more pips.
Good Trading
  • #839
  • May 28, 2008 12:41am May 28, 2008 12:41am
Quoting takeprofit
This is interesting. I'm sure all of us would believe this is true on the first read. 1 pip sounds really simple. Here comes the BUT - What about stops and risk? If you go for 1 pip and it goes against you by 1 pip are you out? If not then how many pips do you risk?

TP
takeprofit,

I will try to keep answers reasonably short since you can guess that I am intensly busy during the UK session.

Ask yourself this: when you enter the market - according to your own method - how likely it is for the price subsequently to move 1 pip in your direction or 100 pips? If you have the probability figured out, you can increase the risk factor accordingly for every trade (opportunity)

The line I quoted is a metaphor for this kind of risk adjustment.

regards,
daytrading
Enter Signature
  • #840
  • May 28, 2008 12:42am May 28, 2008 12:42am
Quoting aud
daytrading, might I suggest you get the person to post their trades here (as other do). It's helped me to see trades others have taken, but as your PM'er is asking for help and if they can withstand any constructive criticism, they will at least get on the same wave length as the others here.

Some are far quicker than myself to jump into trades and Peter did say he only trades if he feels he would be mad not to. (Not an exact quote!) However I had assumed that those taking more trades were making more pips.
aud,

I gave the person a "hint" by letting him know that I would post his question here - that's really all I can do to encourage him/her.

regards
daytrading
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