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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #1,601
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:11pm Jan 29, 2007 4:11pm
J.......this is why I enjoy reading what you write; but only 36 posts? Right now I am sitting in Lucca, Italy, enjoying the wine and the cool (?) weather, while contemplating the variables of the Fozzy Daily. Please continue to share with us...............ciao



Quoting jtrade
I'll tell you what Beach, your & Willf's amazing winning % are an inspiration to us all and I take your point about not getting hung up about r/r ratios with Fozzy. I also actively work on the pyschological aspects of my trading & find this not only helpful, but essential.

I feel that one of the challenges of trading is to constantly evolve one's method(s) and execution whilst (a) K.I.S.S. & (b) steadily accelerating one's account size.

Because of (a), I am not going to reveal what I have now decided to apply as a trailing method for my third lot ... at least not until I have 3 months or so of forward test. Suffice to say it's of the "Ride that sucker till the end" variety !!

Good trading to all.



J.

The goal is full size lots by the end of the year...
  • #1,602
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:19pm Jan 29, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting BeachBum
J.......this is why I enjoy reading what you write; but only 36 posts? Right now I am sitting in Lucca, Italy, enjoying the wine and the cool (?) weather, while contemplating the variables of the Fozzy Daily. Please continue to share with us...............ciao
BeachBum, would you mind sharing with us how you achieve such a high win ratio? I know that you must use quite a bit of discretion with your trades. What variables or factors help you make your decisions on whether or not to take a trade?

Thanks
  • #1,603
  • Jan 29, 2007 4:24pm Jan 29, 2007 4:24pm
Lamdun..................right now I have very limited internet access, so I really can't answer your question in detail. However, if you go back and read my posts in this thread, I think you will find the answer to your question. When I return to the US next month, I will try to set aside some time to write about my version of the Fozzy Daily in basic terms. Thanks for asking.


Quoting Lamdun
BeachBum, would you mind sharing with us how you achieve such a high win ratio? I know that you must use quite a bit of discretion with your trades. What variables or factors help you make your decisions on whether or not to take a trade?

Thanks
  • #1,604
  • Jan 29, 2007 8:53pm Jan 29, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting BeachBum
Lamdun..................right now I have very limited internet access, so I really can't answer your question in detail. However, if you go back and read my posts in this thread, I think you will find the answer to your question. When I return to the US next month, I will try to set aside some time to write about my version of the Fozzy Daily in basic terms. Thanks for asking.

Hi BB
Good to see that you're still around FF. Didn't realise you were
away enjoying yourself.

Looking forward to you sharing your experience and method
(see my post #1578)

Thanks.
  • #1,605
  • Jan 30, 2007 3:04am Jan 30, 2007 3:04am
Quoting BeachBum
J.......this is why I enjoy reading what you write; but only 36 posts? Right now I am sitting in Lucca, Italy, enjoying the wine and the cool (?) weather, while contemplating the variables of the Fozzy Daily. Please continue to share with us...............ciao
Now, Beach, you've got me really jealous : Lucca and the surrounding area is so beautiful. I lived in Italy for almost 8 years until family life took me to Amsterdam a couple of years back; I hope we'll move back when my stepson finishes college. There's nothing like sitting in a beautiful piazza - even this time of year if the sun's out - sipping un bel espresso, watching the world go by.... happy memories indeed.

I lived on the side of the Monte di Portofino, on the coast just south of Genoa.

There you go... Post 37 duly completed.

  • #1,606
  • Jan 30, 2007 9:26am Jan 30, 2007 9:26am
Quoting BeachBum
Many traders take the position that the "trading day" ends when the New York session ends at 5PM ET. The time between that close and the open of the Asian markets at 8PM ET is generally very slow, not much happens. From the "fozzy" perspective, this is a good time to get a new "daily" candle and begin a new trading day. So when fozzy gets his new daily at GMT 00:00 it's 7PM ET. Some of us choose to use brokers who provide a platform that produces a new daily at 6PM, 5PM or even 4PM ET. There's really not much difference in the signal generated at these different times. Personally I like a new daily at 5 or 6 PM ET because it fits well with my trading schedule.
I think your comment makes sense but what about the pairs that release news in this 5PM EST to 8PM EST timeframe like the AUD, NZD, and JPY pairs? Have you looked at your trades to see whether these pairs have less winners and attribute that to the timeframe you're using? This is the only thing I that makes me wonder which timeframe is better to use when trading these pairs.
  • #1,607
  • Jan 30, 2007 2:21pm Jan 30, 2007 2:21pm

hallo all...anyone on this thread got GUPPY indicator for MT4???
can post it here???Sorry 4 outta topic ..=.=

"Analysis Is Hard But Trade Is Easy"
  • #1,608
  • Jan 30, 2007 8:39pm Jan 30, 2007 8:39pm
i do. It's funny I was just wondering the same thing in terms of available pairs on mt4, I have two demo accounts with mt, one has limited pairs and the other has everything under the sun. Not sure what i'm allow to post here but pm me and there's a couple that have the gbp/jpy

Quoting Se[V]eN

hallo all...anyone on this thread got GUPPY indicator for MT4???

can post it here???Sorry 4 outta topic ..=.=

Taking Life One Pip At A Time I officially have my own opinion.
  • #1,609
  • Jan 31, 2007 7:14am Jan 31, 2007 7:14am
Hello everybody
while looking at different fx pairs i kind of discovered that the Daily Fozzy method works good with some pairs (Euro, GBP,) and doesn't work with others. Could someone describe her/his opinion about the usefulness of this strategy on different currency pairs ?

Would be great if someone could tell me his opinion

Cheers Till
  • #1,610
  • Jan 31, 2007 8:18am Jan 31, 2007 8:18am
Quoting BeachBum
............Today I did some of my own testing using the GBP/USD stats I had already recorded. I applied the rsi/50 rule to the possible trades with this pair for 2006 and compared the results. The following is simply my observations, not an endorsement:

I compared various combinations of rsi/ma crosses, Solar Wind direction and rsi/50 level crosses. The best results were acheived when trading WITH a strong Solar Wind trend direction, especially if the bars were close to the 0.00 line, either about to cross or having just crossed. ...........
Hi BeachBum,

I refer to your post # 1566:

Could you please explain what you mean by "..trading WITH a strong Solar Wind trend direction,". What is the indication of a strong SW trend? I thought the longer the bars of the SW the stronger the trend. But at the same time that you talk about the strong trend you also mentions the bars being near to the 0.00 line? This confuses me.

Thanx
Christoff
  • #1,611
  • Edited 7:18pm Jan 31, 2007 2:50pm | Edited 7:18pm
I saw a fozzy indicator that made an arrow on the chart when there was a fozzy cross (on all timeframes). I have been looking through the posts, but can't find it?

Can anyone direct me to where it might be?

Thanks in advance for the help....
  • #1,612
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:10pm Jan 31, 2007 5:10pm
Quoting RemingtonTJ
Hello everybody
while looking at different fx pairs i kind of discovered that the Daily Fozzy method works good with some pairs (Euro, GBP,) and doesn't work with others. Could someone describe her/his opinion about the usefulness of this strategy on different currency pairs ?

Would be great if someone could tell me his opinion

Cheers Till
Hi Till,

When I first started this method I used only the 4 majors (USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD & EUR/USD) because I found them to be the most reliable. I have expanded my horizons since then but I still find the majors to be more successful than some of the other pairs. Other contributors have posted successful trades across a wide variety of pairs so it appears that the method can work with most currencies. My suggestion is to test this method over a range of pairs and only trade the ones you are comfortable with.

Cheers

Fozzy
  • #1,613
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:16pm Jan 31, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting boerseun
Hi BeachBum,

I refer to your post # 1566:

Could you please explain what you mean by "..trading WITH a strong Solar Wind trend direction,". What is the indication of a strong SW trend? I thought the longer the bars of the SW the stronger the trend. But at the same time that you talk about the strong trend you also mentions the bars being near to the 0.00 line? This confuses me.

Thanx
Christoff

I think this is what BB means.

You need to be looking for the solar wind to be coming out of a trend towards the zero line so the it leaves a kind of 'arc' behind it.

Looking back it seems the bigger preceeding arc will create a bigger move.

Kinda difficult to explain so here is a pic of AUDJPY. There has yet to be a cross of the RSI/MA but notice how the red lines (that make the arc) are decreasing towards the zero line. Also at the same time the RSI is geting closer to the MA.

I think this is what BB looks for. I haven't personally been using the solar wind for trading but have been experimenting with it.
Attached Image
  • #1,614
  • Jan 31, 2007 7:12pm Jan 31, 2007 7:12pm
Hi , your system work very well, good job and system.
  • #1,615
  • Jan 31, 2007 9:25pm Jan 31, 2007 9:25pm
Hello All,


Here is a partially back tested Fozzy Alternative which may help give people ideas if they need/want them. It requires more monitoring, using 4hr charts for stops/exits. This is almost a totally mechanical system. I have done this because of the variability in results people get because of the discretionary nature of TP and SL’s when applying Fozzy, FozzyAll (No BB), Fozzy Willf etc. It seems to me most people cannot replicate the success of the originators.

Indicators: AO_FozzyAll, ATRstops_v1.1 ( set to ATR5 and Kv or ATR multiplier 2.5).
Data: FXDD (GMT 2200)
Time period: 1/9/06 – 30/1/07
Entry: Open next day using daily chart. All FozzyAll (No BB) crosses and all Willf crosses – 50 line hit on signal day, not necessarily broken – 3 days allowed for cross of 50 with FozzyAll cross as day 1.
Stops Exits: Initially 100 pips from entry all pairs unless/until 4 hr ATR trailing stop is active; then 4hr ATR stop is the exit.
General: If in trade and got valid opposite signal did not take it unless ATR stop hit. Did not add positions if another signal in direction of trend given: extra pips available here. Results show win% as typical of a trend following system as this essentially is with frequent small losses and few large wins. The results do not include spread/slippage etc.


Cheers Mungo
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Fozzy ATR stop results.doc   49 KB | 829 downloads
  • #1,616
  • Feb 1, 2007 12:55am Feb 1, 2007 12:55am
mungo,

interesting. i have been on willf fozzy since jan and in general it is successful. i have had 4 bad trades, but i cant blame the system for that.

on this, a couple queries. why do u need to monitor 4 hr chart?cldnt u set the 4 hr atr and disappear?

secondly are u live on this? and are you using vegas fibs for tp.


Quoting mungo
Hello All,


Here is a partially back tested Fozzy Alternative which may help give people ideas if they need/want them. It requires more monitoring, using 4hr charts for stops/exits. This is almost a totally mechanical system. I have done this because of the variability in results people get because of the discretionary nature of TP and SL’s when applying Fozzy, FozzyAll (No BB), Fozzy Willf etc. It seems to me most people cannot replicate the success of the originators.

Indicators: AO_FozzyAll, ATRstops_v1.1 ( set to ATR5 and Kv or ATR multiplier 2.5).
Data: FXDD (GMT 2200)
Time period: 1/9/06 – 30/1/07
Entry: Open next day using daily chart. All FozzyAll (No BB) crosses and all Willf crosses – 50 line hit on signal day, not necessarily broken – 3 days allowed for cross of 50 with FozzyAll cross as day 1.
Stops Exits: Initially 100 pips from entry all pairs unless/until 4 hr ATR trailing stop is active; then 4hr ATR stop is the exit.
General: If in trade and got valid opposite signal did not take it unless ATR stop hit. Did not add positions if another signal in direction of trend given: extra pips available here. Results show win% as typical of a trend following system as this essentially is with frequent small losses and few large wins. The results do not include spread/slippage etc.


Cheers Mungo
  • #1,617
  • Feb 1, 2007 1:33am Feb 1, 2007 1:33am
Coolshades,

First off I did the backtest out of curiosity and because I know some people had expressed an interest in using a trailing stop.

1. Need to look at the chart every 4 hrs to get the new stop value.
2. Not live on this, but after further investigation I can see a place for putting half my lots this way to get the big trends and the other half using the vegas TP.
3. I use the Willf method at the moment.
4. The only trading I do is for real. Too many people (in my opinion) spend too much time demoing and not enough time trading.

cheers Mungo
  • #1,618
  • Feb 1, 2007 2:45am Feb 1, 2007 2:45am
Quoting mungo
The only trading I do is for real. Too many people (in my opinion) spend too much time demoing and not enough time trading.

cheers Mungo
Hi, Mungo, & thanks for posting your test results. As you have read, I am using both 4hr & 30 min charts as part of my setup, both for fine-tuning entry and also trade management.

I like your comment above because trading is indeed an endless work in progress and so many people end up doing ongoing research and no trading. I was at a software workshop a couple of weeks ago to learn some new software (not for Fx) - only 3 of the participants were actually trading real money, even though some had been "researching" for over 10 years !

The great thing about Fx is that you can trade microlots with real $ - something you simply cannot do in other markets - to get your feet a tiny bit wet in the real world. In this way you gain experience that you simply cannot get in simtrade mode.

The great thing about this method is that you can start trading Original Fozzy with a simple ruleset and chart and start making money, whilst checking out and seeing for yourself what & why the various alternatives / filters have been introduced. In this way, each trader can find a working method that becomes his or her method. You have to really own a trading method to be successful.... I'm sure you know what I mean (hope you don't mind me using your quote to make a few general points).



J.
  • #1,619
  • Feb 1, 2007 3:09am Feb 1, 2007 3:09am
Quoting willf
I think this is what BB means.

You need to be looking for the solar wind to be coming out of a trend towards the zero line so the it leaves a kind of 'arc' behind it.

Looking back it seems the bigger preceeding arc will create a bigger move.

Kinda difficult to explain so here is a pic of AUDJPY. There has yet to be a cross of the RSI/MA but notice how the red lines (that make the arc) are decreasing towards the zero line. Also at the same time the RSI is geting closer to the MA.

I think this is what BB looks for. I haven't personally been using the solar wind for trading but have been experimenting with it.
Hi Willf,

Thanx for your reply. I think 90% of the success of this thread is the people participating here. Have not seen the positive and helpful attitudes as seen here , in any other forum or thread.

Your explanation makes a lot of sense.

Regards,
Christoff
  • #1,620
  • Feb 1, 2007 2:16pm Feb 1, 2007 2:16pm
Is anybody out there going to open a GBP/USD buy position today, once the current daily bar closes?

Will the fact that since the U.S Non-Farm report comes out tomorrow have any influence on the decision?

Also, will the fact that tomorrow is Friday and the position will probably have to be held over the weekend have any impact?

Regards…
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