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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #1,561
  • Jan 19, 2007 8:01am Jan 19, 2007 8:01am
Quoting migamb
Fellow traders, I was looking for the indicator that puts the arrow on the candle we should buy/sell, I only found the indicator that shows the line going to 0 or 100 to signify the buy/sell. Can someomen point me to were I can get this indicator? Thanks.
I suggest looking at the chart, and putting your own arrow there. There's more to trading forex then just buying and selling depending on an arrow.
So far so good.
  • #1,562
  • Jan 19, 2007 8:51am Jan 19, 2007 8:51am
Quoting migamb
Fellow traders, I was looking for the indicator that puts the arrow on the candle we should buy/sell, I only found the indicator that shows the line going to 0 or 100 to signify the buy/sell. Can someomen point me to were I can get this indicator? Thanks.
There's much more to this system than "arrows"! Please take the time to read and learn how to trade Fozzy!
  • #1,563
  • Jan 21, 2007 9:03pm Jan 21, 2007 9:03pm
Earlier in this thread (posts 1462 & 1475) willf shared with us his results from using the 50 level of the rsi as an additional indicator/filter for taking trades with the Daily Fozzy method. I'm glad he did this because it gave me something new to look at when trading this method. Thanks!

Today I did some of my own testing using the GBP/USD stats I had already recorded. I applied the rsi/50 rule to the possible trades with this pair for 2006 and compared the results. The following is simply my observations, not an endorsement:

I compared various combinations of rsi/ma crosses, Solar Wind direction and rsi/50 level crosses. The best results were acheived when trading WITH a strong Solar Wind trend direction, especially if the bars were close to the 0.00 line, either about to cross or having just crossed. Next, when the rsi is also close the the 50 level, either about to cross or having just crossed, and the steeper the angle of rsi, the better. These three combinations resulted in outstanding results: some profitable trades were missed, but more unprofitable trades were missed. The end result from my testing was 22 total trades; 20 winners. Using three lots per trade, a 100 pip S/L; 1st t/p = 50, 2nd t/p = 100, ride out the third lot after moving 2nd and 3rd to B/E when the first one closed, would have yielded many pips!

No doubt this method would work nicely on most pairs, but I think testing each pair with a year's worth of data is required. And my suggestion to anyone interested in trading this way is to: Spend the time and do the manual backtest........look at the charts, look at the indicators. Get a "feel" for how everything should "setup". Then demo trade until you are comfortable and "own" the system.
  • #1,564
  • Jan 22, 2007 3:58am Jan 22, 2007 3:58am
Wow, this is one long thread. I have finally finished reading every word. I am excited to start my own testing. Fascinating work.
Pip By Pip
  • #1,565
  • Jan 22, 2007 5:11am Jan 22, 2007 5:11am
Quoting BeachBum
Earlier in this thread (posts 1462 & 1475) willf shared with us his results from using the 50 level of the rsi as an additional indicator/filter for taking trades with the Daily Fozzy method....
Beach's post # 1566 above reminded me of this chart someone posted way back when in the earlier days of the Fozzy thread (will post chart as is or within the Word document where I saved it). It shows an interesting angle on RSI levels... so I have now added 40 & 60 levels to my Fozzy Daily charts to see if instead of using willf's 50 level, I can use 40 for longs and 60 for shorts.

As I am lazier than Beach, who is obviously not a Bum, I will forward test only...



J.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Fozzy RSI extra.doc   96 KB | 976 downloads
  • #1,566
  • Jan 22, 2007 6:11am Jan 22, 2007 6:11am
jtrade..........

Oh yeah, I remember that chart. Thanks for posting the reminder! You may consider yourself lazier than me, but obviously your memory is better...

(Sharing info is one of the things that makes this forum great!)

Quoting jtrade
Beach's post # 1566 above reminded me of this chart someone posted way back when in the earlier days of the Fozzy thread (will post chart as is or within the Word document where I saved it). It shows an interesting angle on RSI levels... so I have now added 40 & 60 levels to my Fozzy Daily charts to see if instead of using willf's 50 level, I can use 40 for longs and 60 for shorts.

As I am lazier than Beach, who is obviously not a Bum, I will forward test only...



J.
  • #1,567
  • Jan 22, 2007 7:42am Jan 22, 2007 7:42am
Quoting BeachBum
Earlier in this thread (posts 1462 & 1475) willf shared with us his results from using the 50 level of the rsi as an additional indicator/filter for taking trades with the Daily Fozzy method. I'm glad he did this because it gave me something new to look at when trading this method. Thanks!

Today I did some of my own testing using the GBP/USD stats I had already recorded. I applied the rsi/50 rule to the possible trades with this pair for 2006 and compared the results. The following is simply my observations, not an endorsement:

I compared various combinations of rsi/ma crosses, Solar Wind direction and rsi/50 level crosses. The best results were acheived when trading WITH a strong Solar Wind trend direction, especially if the bars were close to the 0.00 line, either about to cross or having just crossed. Next, when the rsi is also close the the 50 level, either about to cross or having just crossed, and the steeper the angle of rsi, the better. These three combinations resulted in outstanding results: some profitable trades were missed, but more unprofitable trades were missed. The end result from my testing was 22 total trades; 20 winners. Using three lots per trade, a 100 pip S/L; 1st t/p = 50, 2nd t/p = 100, ride out the third lot after moving 2nd and 3rd to B/E when the first one closed, would have yielded many pips!

No doubt this method would work nicely on most pairs, but I think testing each pair with a year's worth of data is required. And my suggestion to anyone interested in trading this way is to: Spend the time and do the manual backtest........look at the charts, look at the indicators. Get a "feel" for how everything should "setup". Then demo trade until you are comfortable and "own" the system.

Would you mind pointing me in the direction to find what the Solar Wind is about? I use this method, however, I only recently returned to thread. I would like to incorp in my plan possibly. Thanks.
carpe dium
  • #1,568
  • Jan 22, 2007 8:04am Jan 22, 2007 8:04am
Good question... I trade off of an MT4 platform, and I don't see the solar wind indicator.

I'll ask the question on the general board.
  • #1,569
  • Jan 22, 2007 10:33am Jan 22, 2007 10:33am
Here's what I just did: Use the "Search this thread" feature at the top of the page and enter the word "Solar". You will directed to 33 posts in THIS thread that will help you. If you care to expand your seach, use "Solar" and search the whole forum. HTH!

Quoting salpoe
Would you mind pointing me in the direction to find what the Solar Wind is about? I use this method, however, I only recently returned to thread. I would like to incorp in my plan possibly. Thanks.
  • #1,570
  • Jan 22, 2007 3:38pm Jan 22, 2007 3:38pm
Where can I download the indicator? I would like to test this system. Thanks
24 hours in a day – 24 bottles of beer in a case – Coincidence? I think not
  • #1,571
  • Jan 22, 2007 3:52pm Jan 22, 2007 3:52pm
Quoting matrixebiz
Where can I download the indicator? I would like to test this system. Thanks
Everything you need is in this thread.

By the way, lose the link in your signature. It will get you banned.

http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?faq=rules#faq_rule3
  • #1,572
  • Jan 22, 2007 6:32pm Jan 22, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting willf
Everything you need is in this thread.

By the way, lose the link in your signature. It will get you banned.

http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?faq=rules#faq_rule3
Ok, thanks. Didn't realize.
Ok, I'll see if I can mudder through the 100+ pages
24 hours in a day – 24 bottles of beer in a case – Coincidence? I think not
  • #1,573
  • Jan 22, 2007 7:33pm Jan 22, 2007 7:33pm
Quoting matrixebiz
Ok, thanks. Didn't realize.
Ok, I'll see if I can mudder through the 100+ pages
No pain, no gain my friend

Cheers,
Art...
  • #1,574
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:06am Jan 23, 2007 8:06am
[quote=willf;174060]
The basic Fozzy setup was done without the bollinger bands. A 50 level was set on the RSI.

If the RSI crossed above the MA and the RSI was above the 50 level I went long.

If the RSI crossed below the MA and the RSI was below the 50 level I went short.

If the RSI crossed the MA but did not cross the 50 level I allowed two bars (two days) for it to do so if it crossed after that it was not traded.

Stops were placed at the previous days high or low.

quote]


Hi Willf
Firstly thanks for all your detailed contributions. I've found them
very helpful.

Just a question about "If the RSI crossed the MA but did not cross the 50 level " :

You wait for a maximum of 2 more days to see if the RSI crosses the 50 line, right?


If it crosses 50, then you enter the trade on the opening of the next day,
again using the same SL and the 2x TP, as described by you?


If it doesn't cross 50 within 2 days, you pass on this trade, correct? Then,
wait for the next RSI/MA cross?

Would appreciate your time to answer my questions, to see if I've
understood your Willf/Fozzy method.

Thanks and cheers.
  • #1,575
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:17am Jan 23, 2007 8:17am
Quoting BeachBum
Earlier in this thread (posts 1462 & 1475) willf shared with us his results from using the 50 level of the rsi as an additional indicator/filter for taking trades with the Daily Fozzy method. I'm glad he did this because it gave me something new to look at when trading this method. Thanks!

Today I did some of my own testing using the GBP/USD stats I had already recorded. I applied the rsi/50 rule to the possible trades with this pair for 2006 and compared the results. The following is simply my observations, not an endorsement:

I compared various combinations of rsi/ma crosses, Solar Wind direction and rsi/50 level crosses. The best results were acheived when trading WITH a strong Solar Wind trend direction, especially if the bars were close to the 0.00 line, either about to cross or having just crossed. Next, when the rsi is also close the the 50 level, either about to cross or having just crossed, and the steeper the angle of rsi, the better. These three combinations resulted in outstanding results: some profitable trades were missed, but more unprofitable trades were missed. The end result from my testing was 22 total trades; 20 winners. Using three lots per trade, a 100 pip S/L; 1st t/p = 50, 2nd t/p = 100, ride out the third lot after moving 2nd and 3rd to B/E when the first one closed, would have yielded many pips!

No doubt this method would work nicely on most pairs, but I think testing each pair with a year's worth of data is required. And my suggestion to anyone interested in trading this way is to: Spend the time and do the manual backtest........look at the charts, look at the indicators. Get a "feel" for how everything should "setup". Then demo trade until you are comfortable and "own" the system.


Hi BB and all,
I've finally caught up with you guys!!

BB, thanks for all your invaluable input to this thread.

I believe you have been trading this system with much success
for quite a few months already.

I was just wondering what are your current tweaks to the
original fozzy system you are trading with.

I understand that you take All RSI/MA crosses, together
with a confirmation using Solar Wind

So, does it mean you disregard the Bollinger Bands for the RSI?

How about level of RSI (e.g. like Willf's)? Do you take that
into consideration?

You also previously mention taking the crosses with the trend.
What do you do to determine this? Price action/ Swing High & Swing Lows?

Would appreciate your sharing. Thanks and cheers

fj
  • #1,576
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:43am Jan 23, 2007 8:43am
I took a position on USD/CHF, which has been going sideways for the last 10 days. RSI crossed up over it's MA, which was all above 50- and the solar wind was indicating an up trend. However, this morning the position tanked and now solar winds is indicating a down trend, and it redrew the last 3-4 days. I wish I had taken a screen shot of the trade last night, but oh well. Either way, I'm very skeptical of this indicator.
So far so good.
  • #1,577
  • Jan 23, 2007 8:56am Jan 23, 2007 8:56am
Quoting paul2
I took a position on USD/CHF, which has been going sideways for the last 10 days. RSI crossed up over it's MA, which was all above 50- and the solar wind was indicating an up trend. However, this morning the position tanked and now solar winds is indicating a down trend, and it redrew the last 3-4 days. I wish I had taken a screen shot of the trade last night, but oh well. Either way, I'm very skeptical of this indicator.
So based on one trade, you're skeptical? Have you checked this out for the past year? Done your backtesting? Have you forwarded tested it?

Have you even eyeballed it on the chart?

If you said yes to any of these, then you shouldn't be skeptical.

A common pitfall of new traders is to quickly dismiss a strategy because it gave a bad signal. Get that out of your head or your account will continue to dwindle.
Mr. Trend
  • #1,578
  • Jan 23, 2007 9:17am Jan 23, 2007 9:17am
Hi there one and all.

I too have been observing Solar Wind as an incidental indicator to the main ones and I have also seen it 'repaint' bars in a different colour 'after the event' so to speak. I was looking at GBPUSD on a 30 min time frame last night and there was a red bar prior to the 'live' one I was watching; went away and blow me it had turned to blue. Most strange I thought!

While I am here, interested in possible suggestions to avoid the inevitable whipsaws when you go short one day (e.g USD/CAD 11 Dec, 5 &16 Jan,) only to be flipped out with an opposing signal the next.

Many thanks



Kermit
  • #1,579
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:02pm Jan 23, 2007 12:02pm
[quote=fjfx;195326]
Quoting willf
The basic Fozzy setup was done without the bollinger bands. A 50 level was set on the RSI.

If the RSI crossed above the MA and the RSI was above the 50 level I went long.

If the RSI crossed below the MA and the RSI was below the 50 level I went short.

If the RSI crossed the MA but did not cross the 50 level I allowed two bars (two days) for it to do so if it crossed after that it was not traded.

Stops were placed at the previous days high or low.

quote]


Hi Willf
Firstly thanks for all your detailed contributions. I've found them
very helpful.

Just a question about "If the RSI crossed the MA but did not cross the 50 level " :

You wait for a maximum of 2 more days to see if the RSI crosses the 50 line, right?


If it crosses 50, then you enter the trade on the opening of the next day,
again using the same SL and the 2x TP, as described by you?


If it doesn't cross 50 within 2 days, you pass on this trade, correct? Then,
wait for the next RSI/MA cross?

Would appreciate your time to answer my questions, to see if I've
understood your Willf/Fozzy method.

Thanks and cheers.
Yes, all correct.
  • #1,580
  • Jan 23, 2007 12:10pm Jan 23, 2007 12:10pm
Quoting Mr Trend
So based on one trade, you're skeptical? Have you checked this out for the past year? Done your backtesting? Have you forwarded tested it?
backtesting is useless when the indicator redraws itself.

I'm not dismissing anything other than solar wind.
So far so good.
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