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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #15,121
  • Edited May 28, 2008 1:13am May 27, 2008 8:24am | Edited May 28, 2008 1:13am
Quoting bshadroo
give me back my 24 pips
H4 :sell signal,
H1 & M30: pulled back to broken TL and then went away from it
Hi, bshadroo.
I also entered short on EURUSD but a bit later, on the next bearish TC on 1H. 1st part reached TP1 at 1.5724. The 2nd is left for 1.5664 but will watch it closely at 1.5710..1.5690 if it finds support there.

Time: 15:00 GMT+1 27/05/08
Price: broke EMA21 and inner sup/res line down on 4H, waiting for a retest of EMA21 and down movement continuation; on 1H broke SMA89 down, retraced back to SMA89 and EMA21 and went down, creating a bearish TC, which was the direct reason for opening; targets: TP1 at the prev. low on 1H, TP2 over SMA200 and supp. line of 4H, at EMA21 on daily, possible reverse at 1.5710..1.5690 (prev. lows on 4H)
Calculations:
Open price: 1.5743x0.5, 1.5738x0.5 ~1.5740x1
SL Price: 1.5781, SL: 41 pips
TP price: 0.5/1.5724, 0.5/1.5764, TP: 46 (16, 76) pips
SINGLE OPENING.
R:R-ratio: 1.12.
Conclusion: trade is Ok.

Edit1: 2nd part close at BE 2,5H after the 1st one; 19 pips x 0.5 + 0 pips x 0.5 = 9.5 pips x 1 lot.

Edit2: if to look at the position about 15 hours later, after closing the 2nd half at BE and turning down price didn't reach TP2 only by 3 pips (TP2 1.5764, the lowest price (bid) in the period - 1.5665). Trade could be in the market still. So it looks like opening was not bad, but SL was a bit too tight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,122
  • May 27, 2008 8:32am May 27, 2008 8:32am
I saw the Euro beginning a move down again and took that on 5mins charts with two lots. +13 and +18. The price stopped on the Monthly pivot and S2. +63 today from small quick trades.
  • #15,123
  • May 27, 2008 8:50am May 27, 2008 8:50am
Quoting napeharm
I saw the Euro beginning a move down again and took that on 5mins charts with two lots. +13 and +18. The price stopped on the Monthly pivot and S2. +63 today from small quick trades.
That's really cool! By the way, if to look at the lower timeframe with it's more frequent trades, 60 pips in 6 trades may bring even more money than 60 pips in 1 trade made on a higher timeframe - if to use fixed fractional MM strategy (like "risk <=2%") and recalculate the lot after each deal, due complex %. But, on the other hand, the lower the timeframe - the more noise, the quicker and maybe even more experienced a trader should be than on a higher one, and it's easier for a broker to hunt SLs if you become noticeable
  • #15,124
  • May 27, 2008 8:54am May 27, 2008 8:54am
Guys,

Need ur help...

where can I get the template of the system with MACD indicator??


sonic
  • #15,125
  • May 27, 2008 9:09am May 27, 2008 9:09am
I think we have to be focused on this thread. This thread is 4HR MACD Strategy which discuss Market Rythm, Price action, S/R etc in relation to the MA'S.

We also have set of rules to follow and confirm from MACD before will pull our trigger. So, I don't see anything wrong in 1Hr early entry because is still part of the system too. People like Saka and Master also discussed how to have a good entry point (on 4HR signal) with 5 minutes and 15 minutes respectively. I don't think this is where to discuss trade that is not taken on 4HR MACD system.

I am sure we want the thread to be as informative as possible rather than messing it up with such information that is not relevant to the system and not even useful as at the time of posting and even after posting. I notice this has becoming to much these days on the thread. People concern should please take note of this. I don't want to mention name here. We are all here to learn, welcome new babies and guide them rather than complicating isssus for them. THAT IS PART OF PHILIP'S OBJECTIVE.

Yes, it is true that anytime we either make a gain or a loss on a trade we will be eager to share it but it should be a trade taken purely on 4HR system, price action and 1hr early entry so that people can gain something from it and even refresh old member's memory.

This just my own view.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #15,126
  • May 27, 2008 9:22am May 27, 2008 9:22am
Ejiexe, I completely agree with you. While there is nothing wrong with discussing scalping in this thread, I think it's best to keep it to the minimum. No hard feeling guys. Just my honest opinion. =)

I personally feel like the charts now are very driven by fundamentals. I am personally staying out for now. The range movement on the majors on the 4hr are nutty!

Good luck trading! =)
  • #15,127
  • May 27, 2008 9:31am May 27, 2008 9:31am
ejiexe:
i agree with u ,unfortunetly this is an old story in this thread and sometimes we see such a problems,
(remember: phillip has another great system in M5 TF .)
  • #15,128
  • May 27, 2008 9:32am May 27, 2008 9:32am
First, thank you everyone for contributing your ideas on this thread.
I am a newbie and certainly appreciate the focus of everyones comments most of the time. Ploughing through the pages takes time.

I watched a higher low form on the MACD for the USDYEN just now, and as it passed through the zero see the pips accumulate. No paper trade, and no live trade so did not take financial advantage, but certainly added to my knowledge bank.

My question: I have just spent a bit of time setting up the horizontal lines for the MACD, but the scale is out for the USDJPY. I'm guessing I haven't read an essential message yet, but I see many (no, all) Phillips charts are EurUsd. Can I use the method on USDJPY? Is there a better scale to use for the USDJPY?

THanks,
  • #15,129
  • May 27, 2008 9:32am May 27, 2008 9:32am
hiiiiiiii all
i'm new here..first..thx to Philp for this great strategy.
i have a question...
when i can use only the MACD signal's (TC, BT, RT,VT, ....) for enter ? and too when i must use the 1h for a good enter..?
or when 4h is enough and when it's not enough...
thx
  • #15,130
  • May 27, 2008 10:00am May 27, 2008 10:00am
Quoting BenStevo
I took a loss of 29pips as well today on the U/J which gave a TC short on 00:00 candle.
Pros: small candles approaching 21EMA, signal candle had nice tail to topside.
Only downside I see is the time of day...
Phillip, would you please comment - would you have taken the trade, as I saw no reason not too.
Nothing wrong with the trade according to the 4H system. If it were on the EurUsd ot GbpUsd I would take it. One have to accept that you are going to get those losses as well. But on TC patterns they dont come regular.
  • #15,131
  • May 27, 2008 10:23am May 27, 2008 10:23am
hi dear phillip,
would u say your idea about my first trade(buy eu) today,i need to know my loosing trades reason.
(post #15115 )
thx alot
  • #15,132
  • Edited 10:52am May 27, 2008 10:23am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting BenStevo
I took a loss of 29pips as well today on the U/J which gave a TC short on 00:00 candle.
Pros: small candles approaching 21EMA, signal candle had nice tail to topside.
Only downside I see is the time of day...
Phillip, would you please comment - would you have taken the trade, as I saw no reason not too.
Well, it seems to me that if you draw a TL in another way, then you may not take it as TC. ALso, the value of MACD in recent swing is as low as about 11, at this stage, TC is not reliable, coz the price in the low range consolidation can find out its way in both direction. That's only my opinion.
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  • #15,133
  • May 27, 2008 10:32am May 27, 2008 10:32am
Quoting bshadroo
hi dear phillip,
would u say your idea about my first trade(buy eu) today,i need to know my loosing trades reason.
(post #15115 )
thx alot
Hi, the second time divergence would let me walk away, and the price did not breakout the recent high.
  • #15,134
  • May 27, 2008 10:45am May 27, 2008 10:45am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hi Phillip

Thanks for all your work on this thread - Just wondering if you have heard of Trading rooms? www.tradingrooms.com Its basically a chat room where you can share charts in real time and post chart pics as well as being able to talk on the mic at the same time. It's really good - and free.

Do you already have a room ? If not it would be a good addition to this thread IMO.

Cheers
Thanks. Will check it out for use in the future.
  • #15,135
  • May 27, 2008 10:52am May 27, 2008 10:52am
Hello here is a trade i did last night on 2000 candle Euro TC. there was another tc on monday morning but i did not take it because of holiday.
My trade was planned as follows. 2 positions
Entry 1.5781
SL..1.5728 -53pips (value of 21 ema was 1.5743 and price usually goes 10 pips below to take out stops so i put it few pips below that.)

TP was set at 1.5835....+54pips (to the upper trend line,.)
TP on second lot was slightly aggressive and was meant to be in the move on case euro decides to make a good run
i woke up this morning to see that the pair had moved very nicely during the night hours to apprx +36 pips in my favor , but then a sharp drop triggered bec of news taking out my stop loss ...

now that i review my trade i figured that i should have set my take profit closer to the recent high of 1.5813... for the first lot to atleast bank 25 - 30 pips . which i usually do for my first lot and move the 2nd to BE. But since the trade was going ot be open during sleep time i just set it up how i perceived it to develop. I am ok with the trade except i think i should be more careful with profit taking. Happy trading everyone,
Nadia.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #15,136
  • May 27, 2008 10:54am May 27, 2008 10:54am
Quoting bshadroo
hi dear phillip,
would u say your idea about my first trade(buy eu) today,i need to know my loosing trades reason.
(post #15115 )
thx alot
Remember that the 4H MACD allready gave a TC so you must realise that you are entering late. Thos doji's also were alarming allthough the direction was long. For me the entry was to late. But you can manage a late entry by raising your original stoploss with the amount of pips it moved in your direction and then the loss would have been around 15pips.
  • #15,137
  • May 27, 2008 10:57am May 27, 2008 10:57am
I was out of the office all day and therefore not been trading. However briefly looking at the charts I dont think I have missed anything. I see some people talking about some E/U shorts, I personnaly can't see these trades but then I havent looked very carefully yet, maybe I am mistaken.

Also I agree with ejiexe its getting very confusing for anyone new to the thread especially if they arent seasoned traders to follow what is really going on.

I think this is because the 4H MACD has given up few trades of late because of the nature of the market at present. This doesnt mean to say it isn't giving them it's just not giving as many. If you go down to lower time frames sure there are more deals but I think in some cases we are seeing posts of some trades which are not really from this system. This system is not a fully automatic system which will splurge out trades and for that reason it is a true working system designed to help you the trader decide what is a good or bad possibility for a succesful trade. This leaves it open to interpretation and each of us can and will see things slightly differently even looking at the same charts. But in general most of us will be pointing in the same direction at the same time when a trade does show up. Sometimes people will post trades which they think are in line with the system and they arent, but these are simple errors in judgement (or they just see things differently than perhaps the rest of us- for right or wrong).

Anyway all that said I think the shorter term 5 min / 15 min trades can definately be confusing if posted here out of context of the 4H system. Not so much for hardened readers but certainly for the newer guys. Perhaps an idea would be to mark clearly these posts as having been done in some ways outside the "standard" 4HMACD / 1H early entry.

Sorry for long post but fancied adding my 2cents....
  • #15,138
  • May 27, 2008 11:58am May 27, 2008 11:58am
I know not many of you trade this pair but it is one of the 3 pairs I am following (4h and 5min systems). I saw the pullback to the 21 and then the zero brake. I entered yesterday afternoon and went to sleep. This morning I was 57pips up - so I close half my position and follow the market with a 35 trialing SL. Got stop out for another 35pips.

I think this is my 3rd trade for the month - luckily all positive.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #15,139
  • May 27, 2008 12:45pm May 27, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting ejiexe
I think we have to be focused on this thread. This thread is 4HR MACD Strategy which discuss Market Rythm, Price action, S/R etc in relation to the MA'S.

We also have set of rules to follow and confirm from MACD before will pull our trigger. So, I don't see anything wrong in 1Hr early entry because is still part of the system too. People like Saka and Master also discussed how to have a good entry point (on 4HR signal) with 5 minutes and 15 minutes respectively. I don't think this is where to discuss trade that is not taken on 4HR MACD system.

I am sure we want the thread to be as informative as possible rather than messing it up with such information that is not relevant to the system and not even useful as at the time of posting and even after posting. I notice this has becoming to much these days on the thread. People concern should please take note of this. I don't want to mention name here. We are all here to learn, welcome new babies and guide them rather than complicating isssus for them. THAT IS PART OF PHILIP'S OBJECTIVE.

Yes, it is true that anytime we either make a gain or a loss on a trade we will be eager to share it but it should be a trade taken purely on 4HR system, price action and 1hr early entry so that people can gain something from it and even refresh old member's memory.

This just my own view.
EURUSD possibilities: Price has made two recent highs in about the same range. 22 May, 04:00 gmt, made a high of 1.5813. Interestingly, the failure candle on 27 May was also the 04:00 gmt candle, and it was 1.5817, only four pips higher than the previous one. Price is making sort of a rounding at the top and showing bearish tendancies. On the other hand, the close of the previous down candle was at 1.5729 with a 29 pip tail down to 1.5700, so there is currently a failure to make a lower low and a possible move back upwards, depending on where the current candle closes some three hours from now. The 4Hr MACD has closed below the zero line. This is bearish at the moment, but price is in a range right now. If price moves back up in the next eight or so hours, we could get a ZB, zero break, a strong bullish signal, essentially a TC signal, if other conditions warrant the taking of it. Price is ranging currently, so there is no guidance. Price is below the 8 ema, bearish, but above the 89 sma and the 200 sma, bullish. Essentially, the market rhythm is signaling zero bullish/bearish strength.
If a bearish TC signal develops during the next several 4 hr candles, it may be above the 200 and take profits may have to be above that region of 1.5650. If a bullish ZB occurs, it might be in the region of the current daily pivot, about 1.5770, allowing a possible take profit to the region of the figure 1.5800, just below the most recent swing highs. If price continues in its current pattern, there will be no clear signals, and the best thing to do on the 4 Hr method will be to stay out. That doesn't mean there won't be other shorter term methods that allow some entries, but that won't be the 4 Hour method.
This is my humble effort to affirm what ejiexe is saying. I don't trade the 4 Hour often because my usual trading times seldom offer good entries, but I value the method, believe in its effectiveness, and would like to see those learning the method not get confused by unclear or confused posting.

Phillip has made so many good mp3's, with written copies showing how he trades the 4 hour method. Reviewing them can bring back a lot of things we forget over time. The location of them can be found on page one of the thread. The ones I'm talking about are like exercises, showing his entries and exits, explaining why he takes a trade or doesn't and how he takes his profit and loss. They show trades for whole months and are very useful for getting the feel for his understanding of the rhythm of the market. Another time, I or someone else will try to point some of them out, especially for those learning the method. I find that knowing this method and its rules are almost essential to someone like me, with little past trading experience, for the use of just about any time frame. I think that knowing one method clearly is the key to the learning of any other method. --Tony
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 4hr 27may2008 1600gmt candle.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #15,140
  • May 27, 2008 12:52pm May 27, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting OldDog
EURUSD possibilities: Price has made two recent highs in about the same range. 22 May, 04:00 gmt, made a high of 1.5813. Interestingly, the the failure candle on 27 May was also the 04:00 gmt candle, and it was 1.5817, only four pips higher than the previous one. Price is making sort of a rounding at the top and showing bearish tendancies. On the other hand, the close of the previous down candle was at 1.5729 with a 29 pip tail down to 1.5700, so there is currently a failure to make a lower low and a possible move back upwards, depending on where the current candle closes some three hours from now. The 4Hr MACD has closed below the zero line. This is bearish at the moment, but price is in a range right now. If price moves back up in the next eight or so hours, we could get a ZB, zero break, a strong bullish signal, essentially a TC signal, if other conditions warrant the taking of it. Price is ranging currently, so there is no guidance. Price is below the 8 ema, bearish, but above the 89 sma and the 200 sma, bullish. Essentially, the market rhythm is signaling zero bullish/bearish strength.
If a bearish TC signal develops during the next several 4 hr candles, it may be above the 200 and take profits may have to be above that region of 1.5650. If a bullish ZB occurs, it might be in the region of the current daily pivot, about 1.5770, allowing a possible take profit to the region of the figure 1.5800, just below the most recent swing highs. If price continues in its current pattern, there will be no clear signals, and the best thing to do on the 4 Hr method will be to stay out. That doesn't mean there won't be other shorter term methods that allow some entries, but that won't be the 4 Hour method.
This is my humble effort to affirm what ejiexe is saying. I don't trade the 4 Hour often because my usual trading times seldom offer good entries, but I value the method, believe in its effectiveness, and would like to see those learning the method not get confused by unclear or confused posting.

Phillip has made so many good mp3's, with written copies showing how he trades the 4 hour method. Reviewing them can bring back a lot of things we forget over time. The location of them can be found on page one of the thread. The ones I'm talking about are like exercises, showing his entries and exits, explaining why he takes a trade or doesn't and how he takes his profit and loss. They show trades for whole months and are very useful for getting the feel for his understanding of the rhythm of the market. Another time, I or someone else will try to point some of them out, especially for those learning the method. I find that knowing this method and its rules are almost essential to someone like me, with little past trading experience, for the use of just about any time frame. I think that knowing one method clearly is the key to the learning of any other method. --Tony
I could not have done it better. No matter what the price is going to do you have analised it in all directions and whatever oppertunity it is going to give will be taken depending on the price level for entry to your supp/res for profit taking. If R:R is not there then no deal.
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