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  • #701
  • May 26, 2008 6:56am May 26, 2008 6:56am
Quoting jarroo
Nice analysis Robin.

Looks like that Usd/Chf trade some of us took on Friday shows more downward potential.

Good Job.
Thanks. Just wanna people to put comments on that and I can learn.

Still on demo, whenever goes on live...even $100 per lot....I just couldnt hold my breath, too nervous. Think it take time to build up.
  • #702
  • May 26, 2008 8:10am May 26, 2008 8:10am
Quoting robincys
Hi, All,

Would like to have a discussion of the attached chart(USD/CHF), the red box contains the opening bar (yellow vertical line) and the green one is the IB setup. We might encouter this sort of IB setup everyday in different pair.

Assumption: the market condition is normal (not holiday)

So the setup could go both direction up and down.

At this case will u go long or short, and please provide the reasoning for that.

PS: My personal opinion is short, I wont touch the long. The blue line was drawn in the 4hr tf, shows a down trend, and the price is now touching the resistence.
Hi Robincys,

I also agree with you, that the short is recommended.

Especially now, after I took the IB of 05:00, at the red dotted line. I did see that the long trend is short, but there was a correction in the short term, and EMA200 was not too far above. I thought that the market may go to the 61.8%, at least, if not touch the EMA200. that's why I choose to wait for the long. I entered in the green line, and my s.l. was hitted, as the market turned down.

I have two other losing trades - EUR/USD , GBP/USD - based on IB's.
This make it 3 losses of 3 trades, and I do not bother to count the ppps.

At least I know how does a holiday like this looks.........

HT was right !

Shefa.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf 1h.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #703
  • May 26, 2008 8:16am May 26, 2008 8:16am
Quoting Shefa
Hi Robincys,

I also agree with you, that the short is recommended.

Especially now, after I took the IB of 05:00, at the red dotted line. I did see that the long trend is short, but there was a correction in the short term, and EMA200 was not too far above. I thought that the market may go to the 61.8%, at least, if not touch the EMA200. that's why I choose to wait for the long. I entered in the green line, and my s.l. was hitted, as the market turned down.

I have two other losing trades - EUR/USD , GBP/USD - based on IB's.
This make it 3 losses of 3 trades, and I do not bother to count the ppps.

At least I know how does a holiday like this looks.........

HT was right !

Shefa.

Where was your IB on the Eur/Usd?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #704
  • May 26, 2008 8:19am May 26, 2008 8:19am
Here is again an example of how to use fibs (exit first half at 161 level) and trendlines (thinner tl with lower risk, thicker with higher risk and expectations) for MM.

R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pound.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #705
  • May 26, 2008 8:21am May 26, 2008 8:21am
Jim, you know too much, that is your problem...

It was a nice trade.

R

Quoting jarroo
Your right, I should have only taken the bottom of the IB.
  • #706
  • May 26, 2008 8:24am May 26, 2008 8:24am
Quoting Rocroy
Here is again an example of how to use fibs (exit first half at 161 level) and trendlines (thinner tl with lower risk, thicker with higher risk and expectations) for MM.

R
I like it Rocroy.

Just remember that trendlines, S/R levels, Fibs, etc. have more strength on higher time frames.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #707
  • May 26, 2008 8:31am May 26, 2008 8:31am
Hi all!!!
It's a great system! I've made small backtest on jan-march and got 2000pips on EURUSD
But i made trading rules different:
1.If I have IB I put order only on 2 bars if I dont have entry - order go off.
2.If i have IB inside opening day bar i can open in all direction.
3.I open 3units on one trade.
1st go out on entryprise+Stoploss target
2nd - 1st target*2
3rd - free fly

I see that results a great but....i don't include spreads! Can you explain how can I take account this problem???
Should i use limit orders?
Can you explain it on todays GBP chart!!! Please!!!

Thanks
  • #708
  • May 26, 2008 8:39am May 26, 2008 8:39am
Quoting jarroo
I like it Rocroy.

Just remember that trendlines, S/R levels, Fibs, etc. have more strength on higher time frames.

Long way to catch up for me...hasnt figure out why using 1.618 as the exit...studying and studying.
  • #709
  • May 26, 2008 8:55am May 26, 2008 8:55am
Quoting jarroo
Where was your IB on the Eur/Usd?
The IB is singed by the red dotted line, I belive it is 04:00 GMT.
Same story as U/C: long trend is up, but there was acorrection in the short term. I watched it from about 05:00 GMT, and waited for it to cross IB bottom.
I did not realy decided yet were should the "open line" be, and I saw you take the very early IB's few times, so I took that one, which looked promising to me.

Is there anything you would advise differently ?

Shefa.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1h.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #710
  • May 26, 2008 9:04am May 26, 2008 9:04am
Quoting Shefa
The IB is singed by the red dotted line, I belive it is 04:00 GMT.
Same story as U/C: long trend is up, but there was acorrection in the short term. I watched it from about 05:00 GMT, and waited for it to cross IB bottom.
I did not realy decided yet were should the "open line" be, and I saw you take the very early IB's few times, so I took that one, which looked promising to me.

Is there anything you would advise differently ?

Shefa.

No. I wouldn't have changed a thing. My charts didn't show an IB on the Euro. So your loss was small 13 pips?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #711
  • May 26, 2008 9:09am May 26, 2008 9:09am
Quoting robincys
Hi, All,

Would like to have a discussion of the attached chart(USD/CHF), the red box contains the opening bar (yellow vertical line) and the green one is the IB setup. We might encouter this sort of IB setup everyday in different pair.

Assumption: the market condition is normal (not holiday)

So the setup could go both direction up and down.

At this case will u go long or short, and please provide the reasoning for that.

PS: My personal opinion is short, I wont touch the long. The blue line was drawn in the 4hr tf, shows a down trend, and the price is now touching the resistence.

Here is my chart for the Swizzy. Price recently broke through the upward trendline (yellow) which makes me bearish. But we are also at a major support-area tight now, and we will see what will happen tomorrow. Today might very well close as an IB and a break out of that IB down might be good but it might depend on the CHF reports tomorrow morning and specially USD new home sales tomorrow afternoon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Swizzy D1.JPG Size: 147 KB
  • #712
  • May 26, 2008 9:21am May 26, 2008 9:21am
Well, I don't know Jim. Often they work almost perfectly on shorter tf's too, like fibs here on today's GJ 5MIN chart. Four fibs, and every time the price hit 161 level almost exactly, and retraced.

Just be careful where you start measuring: for instance, if price is moving up, pick up the previuos downmove for fibbing. Note that there may be some internal whips within that downmove, but it does not matter.

R

Quoting jarroo
I like it Rocroy.

Just remember that trendlines, S/R levels, Fibs, etc. have more strength on higher time frames.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #713
  • May 26, 2008 9:37am May 26, 2008 9:37am
Quoting maximus
Hi all!!!
It's a great system! I've made small backtest on jan-march and got 2000pips on EURUSD
But i made trading rules different:
1.If I have IB I put order only on 2 bars if I dont have entry - order go off.
2.If i have IB inside opening day bar i can open in all direction.
3.I open 3units on one trade.
1st go out on entryprise+Stoploss target
2nd - 1st target*2
3rd - free fly

I see that results a great but....i don't include spreads! Can you explain how can I take account this problem???
Should i use limit orders?
Can you explain it on todays GBP chart!!! Please!!!

Thanks
Hi Maximum,

Did you alowed both sides of the IB, or used some indicators to choose only one ?
Also, thank you for sharing. Sorry I can not answer your questions,

Shefa.
  • #714
  • May 26, 2008 9:49am May 26, 2008 9:49am
Quoting Shefa
Hi Maximum,

Did you alowed both sides of the IB, or used some indicators to choose only one ?
Also, thank you for sharing. Sorry I can not answer your questions,

Shefa.
Example
1st bar (5GMT) - open 1.2000 close 1.3000 If my IB range is between 1.2000 and 1.3000 - i can buy or sell. If high of IB is < 1.2000 - i take only short
If low of IB is > 1.3000 - I take only long
i don't use any indicators in this test. I try to get "clear" enter and exit
  • #715
  • May 26, 2008 9:57am May 26, 2008 9:57am
Quoting jarroo
No. I wouldn't have changed a thing. My charts didn't show an IB on the Euro. So your loss was small 13 pips?
Hi Jarroo,

Actually, this one was a free trade, but I remembered only the losing half.......
Why did you write 13 pps ? the Bar is 9 pps long, and I have added 1 pps on each side. Do you work differently ?
Also, according my undrstanding, as we trade 1pps = 1$, 2 minilits of -13 pps will give a result of -26pps. What do you think ?

Appreciate your reply,

Shefa.
  • #716
  • May 26, 2008 10:05am May 26, 2008 10:05am
Quoting maximus
Example
1st bar (5GMT) - open 1.2000 close 1.3000 If my IB range is between 1.2000 and 1.3000 - i can buy or sell. If high of IB is < 1.2000 - i take only short
If low of IB is > 1.3000 - I take only long
i don't use any indicators in this test. I try to get "clear" enter and exit
Thanks.
How many trades did you have on that backtesting?
What does it mean you did not include the spreads. aren't they included in the backtesting software ?

Shefa.
  • #717
  • May 26, 2008 10:12am May 26, 2008 10:12am
Quoting Shefa
Thanks.
How many trades did you have on that backtesting?
What does it mean you did not include the spreads. aren't they included in the backtesting software ?

Shefa.
3 months - total 69 trades.38 was long and 31 short. 36 was winning trades
I made it "by hand" I don't use MT for testing
And i try to understand - if i have IB with 1.3500 high and 1.3450 low. What kinde of order and on what price should i post to get entry long on 1.3500 and short 1.3450!!!
Im using market orders - im work on daily and spread is small for my profit. But in this method it is very important
  • #718
  • May 26, 2008 10:14am May 26, 2008 10:14am
Quoting maximus
3 months - total 69 trades.38 was long and 31 short. 36 was winning trades
I made it "by hand" I don't use MT for testing
And i try to understand - if i have IB with 1.3500 high and 1.3450 low. What kinde of order and on what price should i post to get entry long on 1.3500 and short 1.3450!!!
Im using market orders - im work on daily and spread is small for my profit. But in this method it is very important
My results
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls test.xls   288 KB | 880 downloads
  • #719
  • May 26, 2008 10:50am May 26, 2008 10:50am
Quoting maximus
3 months - total 69 trades.38 was long and 31 short. 36 was winning trades
I made it "by hand" I don't use MT for testing
And i try to understand - if i have IB with 1.3500 high and 1.3450 low. What kinde of order and on what price should i post to get entry long on 1.3500 and short 1.3450!!!
Im using market orders - im work on daily and spread is small for my profit. But in this method it is very important
Hi Maximum,
I shell write you my opinion, regarding spreads,and I hope people will correct me (if necessary):
Supposing your broker charges 1pps for EUR/USD - then every enterance costs you 3 pps spread, as you enter with 3 lots. If he charges 2 pps - then every entrance cost you 6 pps, and so on.
Regarding entrance price, based on 1.3450-1.3500 IB :
If you enter at 1.3500, you might find yourself entering into a "double top". That's why you want to wait for the market to go 1 pps or 2pps higher - to be sure the price moved on.
The opposite is true at the 1.3450, where you want to avoid entering into a "double bottom" .
Regarding orders, my unsofisticated rule is :
1)If you want the market to change direction after you enter - this is a "limit" order.
2)If you want the market to continue its direction after you enter - this is a "stop" order.
Hopefuly, I am not wrong. You can check it yourself.

See you in your next post,

Shefa.
  • #720
  • May 26, 2008 10:56am May 26, 2008 10:56am
Quoting maximus
My results
Hi Maxim,
Can you explain me, please, the "M" column ?

Thanks, Shefa.
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