USD/JPY Discussion

It's true that I get dizzy reading all the conflicting analysis coming through the wire. Looking at the chart, where do you see the pair going next week? It seems to me to have bounced off resistence and might be set to go higher. Correct me if I am wrong.

long here for 108ish.

usd recovery is in the cards.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0523.html

I will read it now. One of the BEST and most accurate Economists out there. I have been reading and at times subscribing to his articles since 1999.

He has to be taken very serious even if his political slant is agressive. His information is fact filled and quite clear. Information is POWER if used in the proper way. From information that I have read 90% plus of ALL Forex traders are basically technical traders. Any wonder why 95% of all Forex trader's lose.

This was not a knock on anyone only trading using technicals. It is an attempt on my part to convince those with either a open mind or not profitable consistently using mainly technicals to see it in another light. Technical skills are essential for success but in my opinion and by my proven results over the last two plus years not the key. Fundamental knowledge is the key with Risk Management and the normal human emotions under control such as GREED, FEAR and YES...EGO !!!

With Respect To All Views...

Bruce

P.S. The CHARTS Do Not Show This So Ignore It At Your Financial Peril. I Have Done My BEST to point it out...

READ CAREFULLY ... Thank You

Snippet From Above Link...


Inflation & Gold-Silver Breakout

by Jim Willie, CB. Editor, Hat Trick Letter | May 23, 2008

Print
The gold and silver prices have broken out on the upside, not to register new highs but rather to emerge from a clear bullish wedge pattern in their daily charts. The stage is set for assaults on the 1000 gold high and the 21 silver high. Furthermore, and more boldly stated, the stage was set last January for tremendous moves in gold toward 2000 and silver toward 50 in the next 18 to 24 months, give or take. The crude oil price surged past 100. Next the gold price will surge through 1000, as in SURGE. The key commercial commodity is crude oil. The key financial commodity is gold (silver also). Unprecedented monetary inflation invites unprecedented reaction in the crude oil and precious metal prices, where justice still is enforced. This key cause and effect is sorely missed by slick Wall Street conmen and carnival barkers. They invest privately in secrecy, while they promote publicly with deception, fraud, and influence of public media networks. They invest in the energy futures markets, while talking about speculation as the blame factor. They have yet to read and absorb the Peak Oil phenomenon on billboards. Oil supply reliability and disruption is a key story behind crude oil prices right now, not speculation. Permit me a rant that rambles from one important topic to another, but does conclude with the gold & silver prices, charts, with breakouts evident, and targets claimed.
Before the US Congress, the masterful Rick Masters testified that in the last three years, China was responsible for higher crude oil demand by 920 thousand barrels per day, more than the private speculative demand rise of 848 thousand bbl/day. In their unlimited shallowness, the US Congress is considering a new law to limit energy speculation. The new legislation would likely result in monumental shortages, since energy suppliers will be unable to properly and judiciously hedge their contracts spaced over a few months. In avoiding the risk, they would simply not supply. Major disruptions for the USEconomy are coming soon, from corruption, from stupidity, from legislation, from failed banks due to bond fraud, from designed addiction to oil in lieu of nuclear or alternatives, from consequences of three decades of monetary inflation, from honed horrendous heretic economic counsel, from abandoned factories, and from magnificent control of the network media sufficient to render an entire nation helplessly and hopelessly ignorant. The queer version of capitalism known and practiced within the Untied States is beginning to show signs of failure. Remedy involves either a depression from debt collapse on one route, or greater episodes of inflation and job loss, the other route to depression. The real risk of economic depression finally is being spoken about by intelligent people. The safety net for individuals is built with gold, silver, oil, gas, and other tangible things. Do not invest in Exchange Traded Funds. Why invest in something controlled by financial entities, most of which are corrupt with a track record of market control via fraudulent means? Take possession and avoid the lazy route of permitting a financial firm based in the US or UK to control your assets. ETFunds are part of their plan to control markets and to suppress key prices like gold.
Price inflation is raging at almost 12% annually inside the Untied States. Monetary inflation is raging between 12% and 18% in the US and European Union. Rely on such sound statistics from the Shadow Govt Statistics folks. Higher food and energy prices are infiltrating the entire USEconomy, with higher costs being passed along everywhere. The only turkeys not noticing are USGovt statistical creative writers who clearly struggle to maintain their shell game and charade. Jobs are being destroyed on a mass scale. The financial propaganda has turned so absurd and bold that even former USFed Chairman Paul Volcker has commented on their split from reality, in his strong hint of a return to STAGFLATION. The criticism of the April Jobs Report was right out in the open, with goofy Birth-Death Model upward adjustments even to the construction and financial services ledger item. Wall Street traders, analysts, even financial network anchors had a hard time not laughing at that jobs report, pointing out with a straight face that they at least like the headline on the story. The actual US-based price inflation, when all is tallied, is several percent above the official corrupted gimmicked CPI. The facade of this myth is slowly being smashed in a public manner. This is precisely what will drive the public like a stampede into gold & silver investments. They have been conned to accept pitifully low interest yield on their bank certificates of deposit. A pullout of funds from bank deposits comes next, maybe not this year, but such an event lies in the future. The public will eventually embrace gold & silver.
Inflation & Gold-Silver Breakout

by Jim Willie, CB. Editor, Hat Trick Letter | May 23, 2008

Print
The gold and silver prices have broken out on the upside, not to register new highs but rather to emerge from a clear bullish wedge pattern in their daily charts. The stage is set for assaults on the 1000 gold high and the 21 silver high. Furthermore, and more boldly stated, the stage was set last January for tremendous moves in gold toward 2000 and silver toward 50 in the next 18 to 24 months, give or take. The crude oil price surged past 100. Next the gold price will surge through 1000, as in SURGE. The key commercial commodity is crude oil. The key financial commodity is gold (silver also). Unprecedented monetary inflation invites unprecedented reaction in the crude oil and precious metal prices, where justice still is enforced. This key cause and effect is sorely missed by slick Wall Street conmen and carnival barkers. They invest privately in secrecy, while they promote publicly with deception, fraud, and influence of public media networks. They invest in the energy futures markets, while talking about speculation as the blame factor. They have yet to read and absorb the Peak Oil phenomenon on billboards. Oil supply reliability and disruption is a key story behind crude oil prices right now, not speculation. Permit me a rant that rambles from one important topic to another, but does conclude with the gold & silver prices, charts, with breakouts evident, and targets claimed.
Before the US Congress, the masterful Rick Masters testified that in the last three years, China was responsible for higher crude oil demand by 920 thousand barrels per day, more than the private speculative demand rise of 848 thousand bbl/day. In their unlimited shallowness, the US Congress is considering a new law to limit energy speculation. The new legislation would likely result in monumental shortages, since energy suppliers will be unable to properly and judiciously hedge their contracts spaced over a few months. In avoiding the risk, they would simply not supply. Major disruptions for the USEconomy are coming soon, from corruption, from stupidity, from legislation, from failed banks due to bond fraud, from designed addiction to oil in lieu of nuclear or alternatives, from consequences of three decades of monetary inflation, from honed horrendous heretic economic counsel, from abandoned factories, and from magnificent control of the network media sufficient to render an entire nation helplessly and hopelessly ignorant. The queer version of capitalism known and practiced within the Untied States is beginning to show signs of failure. Remedy involves either a depression from debt collapse on one route, or greater episodes of inflation and job loss, the other route to depression. The real risk of economic depression finally is being spoken about by intelligent people. The safety net for individuals is built with gold, silver, oil, gas, and other tangible things. Do not invest in Exchange Traded Funds. Why invest in something controlled by financial entities, most of which are corrupt with a track record of market control via fraudulent means? Take possession and avoid the lazy route of permitting a financial firm based in the US or UK to control your assets. ETFunds are part of their plan to control markets and to suppress key prices like gold.
Price inflation is raging at almost 12% annually inside the Untied States. Monetary inflation is raging between 12% and 18% in the US and European Union. Rely on such sound statistics from the Shadow Govt Statistics folks. Higher food and energy prices are infiltrating the entire USEconomy, with higher costs being passed along everywhere. The only turkeys not noticing are USGovt statistical creative writers who clearly struggle to maintain their shell game and charade. Jobs are being destroyed on a mass scale. The financial propaganda has turned so absurd and bold that even former USFed Chairman Paul Volcker has commented on their split from reality, in his strong hint of a return to STAGFLATION. The criticism of the April Jobs Report was right out in the open, with goofy Birth-Death Model upward adjustments even to the construction and financial services ledger item. Wall Street traders, analysts, even financial network anchors had a hard time not laughing at that jobs report, pointing out with a straight face that they at least like the headline on the story. The actual US-based price inflation, when all is tallied, is several percent above the official corrupted gimmicked CPI. The facade of this myth is slowly being smashed in a public manner. This is precisely what will drive the public like a stampede into gold & silver investments. They have been conned to accept pitifully low interest yield on their bank certificates of deposit. A pullout of funds from bank deposits comes next, maybe not this year, but such an event lies in the future. The public will eventually embrace gold & silver.

please don't post that without any reasoning to confuse people

Based on what facts ? The facts only the facts !!!

By the way congratulations for your clever Silver purchase of years ago under or near $5.00 US ...

Too bad you sold out a bit early under $10.00 when it did go over $20 US

However no one can knock your knowledge or your record however you too can be wrong at times. So again based on what FACTS do you see USD recovery ?

I await your reply.

Bruce WARREN Margolese

My thoughts exactly. Good to see you today on Forex Factory.

Best Regards

Bruce

too risky right now...
we have a double top and a double bottom
but now that gold is going up again... it is time to stop those lucky ones that went long in the 95.0 to 99.0 zone and they think they can stay in the trade to the 108.... big channel down in the weekly is intact. I think we should see 100.00 soon

That is the whole point that making money requires hard work. There is no easier way. Rather than get dizzy by all the various views just be aware of them so that after awhile you can form your own consensus of things in order to make your own decisions rather than ask me or some other chart reader what will happen.

Accept it or not NO CHART READER can tell you. NONE because if OIL GOES to $150 US the Dow will GO DOWN... PERIOD.

Is that in the charts ? No, it is not. When did we EVER have Gold OVER $900 and Oil OVER $130 ?

NEVER.... So Take the Charts and use them properly to see the Human Psychology at the MOMENT...

If only you understand that you might start down the road to winning plus 60% of all your FX trades.

Please PROVE me Wrong !!! I am open but remain unconvinced. For good reason based on my results.

I do not like to keep mentioning my RESULTS but how else can I make my point and maybe help some posters here to succeed.

Bruce

last day... I was seeing that DOW jones was tanking a lot.. going down in the 5 minutes charts... 3 or 4 bars down a lot... while USDJPY 3 or 4 abrs exploding up... after a while USDJPY went down again... that was a fantastic opportunity do shor UJ.. but... what if UJ was leading and DOW explodes up instead of UJ following dow ? Does UJ follow DOW? or DOW follow UJ?

i'm going to illustrate it so you can see it
look at 22 may 19:50
5 min charts...

At times the USD/JPY does lead the Dow because of INCREDIBLE FLOWS from the various Hedge Funds that have buy-sell programs based on the level of the Dow. However these imbalances are so far always only for a short period of time.

The BOTTOM LINE for the moment is the price of Oil. Also read the Jim Willie piece that I poster earlier. The Dow will GO DOWN and USD/JPY will head to 100 before it ever heads to 108 in my opinion.

Again PLEASE KEEP IN MIND this marketplace first of all is the place the Powers That Be BUY or SELL their Inventory.

FAIR MARKET VALUE is Between 103 and 105 UNTIL the PRICE of Oil changes the VALUE.

There lies the SECRET for you and others. The Charts Only REFLECT the PSYCHOLOGY of the MARKET PLACE.

The POWERS that BE reflect FAIR MARKET VALUE based on FUNDAMENTALS!!!

Is That CLEAR YET ???

Bruce

thanks Bruce
I'm still reading that Jim article

another imbalance I've found and exploited sometimes is the differences of the DOW at the opening and the UJ in relation with the UJ at the time dow closed previous day...

for example... UJ is at 100.0 at DOW session close and it continues going down to 98.0 in the asian an europe session... and DOW is still green +0 or + 5.. some minutes before dow open. that means DOW is waiting to open to go down to match UJ...or that dow is expecting good news and wants to go up. if DOW doesn't go down fast at the open... then UJ has to go up quick.

Good Observations. This is a very very difficult business to be a consistent winner in. I will only call myself a successful FX trader once I have managed a minimum of One Million Dollars US for 12 consecutive months in a row and can still claim to have a winning percentage of all FX trades over 80% BUT more importantly for me is to see a minimum return each month of 20%.

I know that I set HIGH standars for myself but that is my goal to become the Number One FX Currency Trader In The World. Aim Low and You Finish Low.
Aim High and You at least have a chance to get there.

The point of mky answer to your post is this for ALL of us here.

FIND THE "EDGE" and USE it... The Edge you mention that you discovered just might be the difference between a winning month and a losing one.

Bruce

When you reach that stage then you have FUN and it becomes less work and more a way of life. Eat healthy. Live Healthy and Trade Wealthy and the World is there for you as long as you are not selfish and give something back.

Bruce

very encouraging words...
the truth is that all multimillionaire traders have been in trouble once... losing everything and starting again... only persistence gives you a target.

I think the secret is to not to look at the balance you have until next year.. only trade using pips and lots.. not seeing real $$$ numbers in your account... because when you lose a trade of $5,000 for example... it is harder than losing a trade of $50 but it can be the same number of pips. and it doesn't indicate you are doing worse because you lose 5,000.

now...Let's make that monthly 20% target

In August 2003, on the veranda sipping lemonade with the venerable respected Kurt Richebacher at his spacious apartment in Cannes France, we talked about his forecast of a collapse to the USEconomy before 2005. My response was not to under-estimate the ability of Americans to pump up another bubble and keep the national economy levitated for a while longer. My argument was to point to the US housing market, its $20 trillion size at the time, and how a few $trillion could keep things afloat for a long while. We agreed on the ultimate destination for both the USEconomy and US bank system though, a combination of a dustbin, charred ruins, and a pile for vultures to feed upon carrion. He was an interesting man, with great insight in economic dislocations, but he could not properly assess some innovations like mortgage bonds, carry trades, and extreme speculation that had been endemic to US financial engineering foundations but now are epidemic in their destruction. He would now point to the four insolvent pillars to the USEconomy: federal budget, current account (trade) deficit, bank capital, and homeowner equity. These four insolvent pillars point to imminent desperation in policy, all directed toward mammoth unprecedented monetary inflation. Gold & silver prices will respond. Crude oil already has begun to do so. Sadly, he is not able to see the grotesque pathogenesis on display for the collapse of the USEconomy and US banking system that he forecasted. It would be nice to hear his interpretation of the kill job of Bear Stearns, the illegal funding access by JPMorgan, the next kill job of a Wall Street bank by its own murderous crows, the flight into crude oil, the crackup boom in gasoline prices, supply chain disruptions, the next gold surge past 1000, the various new USFed lending facilities, the distortions of US and LIBOR interest rates, the contrast of negative M1 growth versus fast rising M3 money supply, and the elevation of the competing currency wars with central banks working together and at each other’s throats at the same time.
In the last couple months, a profound change has been seen in the USTreasury Bond market. Long-term yields have been rising, but so have short-term yields. The financial network spin, originating from Wall Street, has been that the USEconomy has begun to recover, and US banks have also recovered from threats to insolvency. Of course, both claims are incorrect. What happened is that the USFed gave away its more valuable USTBonds to troubled Wall Street and other money center banks, took their damaged private mortgage bonds, and did so at seriously inflated prices. AAA-rated mortgage bonds were typically unloaded to the now vulnerable USFed at 70 and 80 and 90 cents per dollar par value, when their actual value is half that, maybe nothing at all within a year. The USFed was forced to balance its bond portfolio by selling USTreasurys in the open credit market, thus lifting USTreasury yields in a broad manner. They are desperately trying not to use blatant monetization methods to rebalance their portfolio. In doing so, they are actually draining the private sector banking sector of liquidity. To say that the big money center banks, central bank, Treasury Dept, and USGovt Administration are subsidizing the nucleus of the US financial elite is a gross understatement. In the next phase, occurring over the next few months, the USFed and their partners in collusion will be monetizing the insolvency if not bankruptcy in a bigger way, but accomplishing the deed without balancing the bond portfolio of the USFed itself. The bankster syndicate will resort to much more direct and blatant monetary inflation. This is a key reason why the crude oil price has been gushing upward. Next is a vault upward in the gold & silver prices.


LinK: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0523.html

Bruce

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0523.html


Week Ahead In US Financial Markets
Tuesday 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence (May)
Consumer confidence looks to take another outsized hit, when the May report from the Conference Board is released. Due to the sharp jump in the price of gasoline during the monthly sampling period we anticipate that consumer confidence will decline to 60.3 for the month. Moreover, with the labor sector continuing to contract and headline prices further sapping the real personal disposable income of consumers, the headline may be poised for a greater decline to the downside.
Tuesday 10:00 AM New Home Sales (April)
Over the past several months a variety of data across the housing sector have provided a opportunities to declare the bottom in the now multiyear correction in the housing industry. We have assiduously avoided that temptation and continue to do so now. The fundamental basics of supply and demand will not be changed by carefully crafted claims of recovery at hand. The facts are that the inventory of new homes stand at 11.0 months and will not reach a stable equilibrium until 2009. We expect that prices will have to see a further 12-15% correction to facilitate that development. Our forecast implies that total sales will fall to 507K for the month of April amidst the continuing adjustment in both prices and rates.
Wednesday 8:30 AM Durable Goods Orders (April)
Wall Street’s most volatile series should see a fourth straight month of declines in the headline series when we anticipate that new orders for durables will fall -1.0% and the core ex-transportation will decline -0.3% for the month. A weak month of orders for civilian aircraft and weak consumer demand should be the primary catalysts for another month of contraction.
Thursday 8:30 AM Jobless Claims (Week Ending May 24)
The initial claims series looks to be settling in at the top of its 350-370K range that it has moved of late. The four-week moving average resides at 365K, with no clear catalyst to send the weekly claims series higher on the horizon. However, the continuing claims series surged above the critical 3.0mln during the week ending April 19 and look to continue a steady march upward that should culminate in a 5.5% rate of unemployment by the end of 2008.


Bruce

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


Cool, Clear Water
BY BRIAN PRETTI
Our Spirits Cry Out For Water
Critical to US households ahead, in my mind, is liquidity. Just as this issue is now life or death for the commercial and investment banks. Although the Street appears myopically focused on this very issue when it comes to the Fed, the US financial system and its key players, they should be equally as focused on US households when it comes to the question of liquidity. Yes, the very households that have made the quarter century US credit cycle literally hum…until recently. So let’s have a look at household liquidity circumstances of the moment. You already know, a lot of charts to come that in very good measure tell their own story quite simply and elegantly.
First a very important reminder. Liquidity, or cash, in the charts below is comprised of all cash, bank deposits, CD’s, money funds and all bond holdings (Treasury, agency, corporate and muni) of these very same households. I try to be as generous and all inclusive as possible with the definition of household liquidity. Narrow it is not. About the only things not included in the definition of liquidity, or cash, in the charts that follow are household ownership of real estate, equity holdings (including pensions) and private business equity. Otherwise I’m pretty much throwing the kitchen sink into the mix of so-called liquidity just to give households a big benefit of the doubt. Onward.
First up is a repeat of a chart I have shown you in the past. Very simply, household liquidity relative to total household liabilities as of year end 2007. Have a look.


Bruce

USDJPY BOUNCED OFF OF MONTHLY SUPPORT...


http://i31.tinypic.com/2u7u1e0.gif


The support is in the area of the Jan 2005 lower fib projections.

SEE THE LIGHT !!!

Being Aware Of The Real Economic Situation In The USA the engine of the World Economy for the last 10 years allows US to SEE into the FUTURE and know fortunately or unfortunately depending on your point of view the REALITY of the present USA economic situation.

That in turn allows you to have a complete view of things and be aware of trends and directions regardless of any misinformation given to you either intentionally or unitentionally through ignorance or lack of true understanding of the true economic facts.

I would venture to guess that most people do not understand the true meaning or what causes INFLATION.

Bruce

P.S. The FED Causes INFLATION !!!