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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,161
  • May 23, 2008 8:52am May 23, 2008 8:52am
Dont know where will it go...
  • #7,162
  • May 23, 2008 9:12am May 23, 2008 9:12am
UJ rising ....
  • #7,163
  • May 23, 2008 9:19am May 23, 2008 9:19am
It's not rising.....Is spiking.....No confirmation on which trend heading....
  • #7,164
  • May 23, 2008 9:23am May 23, 2008 9:23am
Light Sweet Crude & Gold easing now....Light sweet crude @ 132.85 Up 1.96
While Gold @ 925.30 Up 3.25

Dow futures no change still standing around 12539.
  • #7,165
  • May 23, 2008 9:25am May 23, 2008 9:25am
usd/jpy wants to retrace
  • #7,166
  • May 23, 2008 9:25am May 23, 2008 9:25am
that trend is weak, the news was bad in general. The dow is down
  • #7,167
  • May 23, 2008 9:29am May 23, 2008 9:29am
From Financial Ninja:

Oil Crisis and the Blame Game
Posted: 23 May 2008 07:47 AM CDT
http://bp2.blogger.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/...WTICBubble.png http://bp3.blogger.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/.../s320/WTIC.png http://bp2.blogger.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/...g/s320/DUG.png http://bp2.blogger.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/...s/s320/XOM.pngWhen looking for a scapegoat, just blame the speculators… its really easy. You don’t even need to know what you’re talking about.

Blame Wall Street for $135 Oil on Wrong-Way Betting (Update3): “Oil's rally to a record above $135 a barrel came as traders bought crude to cover wrong-way bets that prices would decline, according to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The number of outstanding futures contracts, known as open interest, fell 8.1 percent in a week to 1.36 million at the same time that prices rose 2.6 percent, the data show. Falling open interest and rising prices are signs that traders are buying to exit so-called short positions that would profit if oil fell, and lose money as they rose.

“In a market like today, which is trending higher while open interest is falling, it's a sign that money is moving out of the market,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. Open interest in Nymex crude futures peaked this year at 1.5 million on March 13.

Crude for July delivery touched a record $135.09 a barrel on the Nymex today. Oil futures later dropped on signs that a 15 percent run-up in prices this month isn't justified by stockpiles and demand. Oil fell $2.36 to settle at $130.81 a barrel. Prices have more than doubled over the past year.

Open interest has been sliding for months, after the number of outstanding crude futures reached a record 1.58 million on July 16, 2007.”

Futures contracts are a zero sum game. There needs to be a buyer and a seller for each open contract. Falling open interest means money is indeed leaving the market. The media has been accusing speculators of running oil massively higher. The reality is that since July 16th 2007, money has been flowing OUT of the oil as speculators reduce their positions. Granted, it would appear that shorts are getting out first, but net falling interest of this magnitude is probably foreshadowing that this oil price spike is nearing the end… and will probably correct sharply lower in the near future.

“In the last year, non-commercial market participants have raised bets on rising prices, known as long positions, by 37 percent to 263,378 contracts, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said May 16.

The rush to buy back contracts may be linked to the record number of short positions that had been built up in recent weeks by small-sized speculators, which the CFTC refers to as “non- reportable” traders because their holdings are small. Those investors held 123,194 futures contracts betting oil futures would fall in the week ended May 6, an all-time high, and 47 percent more than the number of bets they'd placed on rising prices.”

Those with deep pockets are long and the weak hands were short. Naturally the weak hands get squeezed out first. The retail shorts have been blown out. That eliminates in large part the fuel for this parabolic move.

Maybe we can hammer out a top around here somewhere... Money has been flowing into inverse energy ETFs (DUG for example), indicating that money is for the first time attempting to call a top. Oil and Gas shares have fallen even as oil blew through $130 and immediately tagged $135.

Big energy companies, such as Exxon Mobile (XOM) failed to sustain new highs even as oil rallied hard. Something is up. Pop, and drop. XOM broke resistance and then immediately FAILED. Hmmm...

These prices exceed even the pain threshold of politicians. With their economically illiterate constituents complaining loudly, the time is ripe for the government to do something tremendously stupid in a vain attempt to bring down oil prices.

Although we may not yet know what it will be or when it will be done, you can bet on some kind of brain fart becoming official policy fairly soon…

… because on CNBC prices above $130 have resulted in new name and picture appearing on the screen called: The American Oil Crisis.

Now that it’s a crisis, look out.

I’ve been wrong on oil before (although I managed to trade these opportunities just fine):
Commodities Unravel, Confidence Collapses
Massive De-Leveraging Slams Commodities
Parabolic Commodities: The End is in Sight
Oil and Global Decoupling Theory
Crude Hits $100, Equities Freak
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  • #7,168
  • May 23, 2008 9:34am May 23, 2008 9:34am
Quoting MRmojtaba
usd/jpy wants to retrace
agree ....
  • #7,169
  • May 23, 2008 9:43am May 23, 2008 9:43am
Quoting boardslide
Attachment

take my short from yesterday... reached the target on 103.30, then see the next move...


..just a newbie who want to share...
just a small tips from me.. if you wanna take a picture from metatrader.. why don't you right click on the chart.. and choose "save as picture.."

it would be easier and faster method..
  • #7,170
  • May 23, 2008 9:48am May 23, 2008 9:48am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Good job.

I will never understand why so many traders here pay so much attention to the news. Markets price in the news. Even if the housing data is positive, one month does not make a change. I do not even pay attention to anything except interest rate news. I turn on Bloomberg for the ECB, BOE and FOMC only. To each his own though. Good luck everyone.
We each have our own way of trading that suits our individual personality. The market might reflect the news at the moment but it cannot reflect the future under any circumstances.

I knew about the housing issues a year ago and I am way ahead of the masses on how bad the additional writeoffs will be in the banking industry in the future.

95% of all FX traders lose and I assume you are in the winning 5% of the FX traders.

I know I am and I also know that trading FX for me is a way of life in every aspect of it. I have seen the records of the best out there and a 50% yearly return is more than incredible.

Without it coming across as bragging I consistently average 20% a month and some monts a actual 50% return. Bottom line for me this type of result would be impossible for me to reach unless I traded the way that I do now.

Good Trading to you and keep on doing whatever it is you do to be a consistent winner. I have mentioned this before so just to repeat, during October 2007 at PFG I was able to make 693 FX trades of 100K without a loss. My method works for me and I work very very hard to accomplish these types of results and returns.

I am finished trading for the day as it is now time to smell the roses and enjoy the rest of this Sunny Day in Montreal.

Bruce

Not So Humble For The Moment !!!
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  • #7,171
  • May 23, 2008 9:56am May 23, 2008 9:56am
Quoting Warren Forex
We each have our own way of trading that suits our individual personality. The market might reflect the news at the moment but it cannot reflect the future under any circumstances.

I knew about the housing issues a year ago and I am way ahead of the masses on how bad the additional writeoffs will be in the banking industry in the future.

95% of all FX traders lose and I assume you are in the winning 5% of the FX traders.

I know I am and I also know that trading FX for me is a way of life in every aspect of it. I have seen the records of the best out there and a 50% yearly return is more than incredible.

Without it coming across as bragging I consistently average 20% a month and some monts a actual 50% return. Bottom line for me this type of result would be impossible for me to reach unless I traded the way that I do now.

Good Trading to you and keep on doing whatever it is you do to be a consistent winner. I have mentioned this before so just to repeat, during October 2007 at PFG I was able to make 693 FX trades of 100K without a loss. My method works for me and I work very very hard to accomplish these types of results and returns.

I am finished trading for the day as it is now time to smell the roses and enjoy the rest of this Sunny Day in Montreal.

Bruce

Not So Humble For The Moment !!!
Without This Part I Would Not Succeed Trading FX or anything. There is definitely more to Life than just the money.


Scientific Revolution

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By Tzvi Freeman
More than 1,700 years in advance, the author of the Zohar predicted a revolution of science and technology beginning in the middle of the last century. There he describes the fountains of wisdom bursting forth from the ground and flooding the earth --all in preparation for an era when the world shall be filled with wisdom and knowledge of the Oneness of its Creator.
From this we know that the true purpose of all technology and modern science is neither convenience nor power, but a means to discover G-dliness within the physical world.

G-D Bless

Bruce
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  • #7,172
  • May 23, 2008 10:19am May 23, 2008 10:19am
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Good job.

I will never understand why so many traders here pay so much attention to the news. Markets price in the news. Even if the housing data is positive, one month does not make a change. I do not even pay attention to anything except interest rate news. I turn on Bloomberg for the ECB, BOE and FOMC only. To each his own though. Good luck everyone.
Well.. I think that nobody wants to get their trades hurt by news! (specially while the trading style we are talking about is at short terms). We have to be fundamental and technical traders at the same time. I've got hit very hard several times when I used to look only at one side of the coin instead of both. So, back to the point.. Today I had to take a decision, just waited for the news and better than expected US Home Sales [MoM/Apr] (plus the 61.8 fib retracement) made me close my short without hesitate. Also, wanting more than 150 pips against the circumstances is kind of greedy, don't u think?

http://www.geocities.com/mazaefx/trademay23.gif

Have a nice weekend!

... /$ -> LONG
  • #7,173
  • May 23, 2008 10:27am May 23, 2008 10:27am
USD negative.
But ..how much can we expect for a Friday?
  • #7,174
  • May 23, 2008 10:37am May 23, 2008 10:37am
I wonder if UJ will rally before it closes for the weekend and Monday's holiday ...
  • #7,175
  • May 23, 2008 10:49am May 23, 2008 10:49am
Looks like the price I'm looking at is 5 or more minutes later...
  • #7,176
  • May 23, 2008 12:18pm May 23, 2008 12:18pm
I believe it has still got time to brake 103.00 before the Dow closing.
  • #7,177
  • May 23, 2008 12:40pm May 23, 2008 12:40pm
Good short spot now...
  • #7,178
  • May 23, 2008 1:12pm May 23, 2008 1:12pm
Be careful. Looks like a she's headed north.
  • #7,179
  • May 23, 2008 1:46pm May 23, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting JSmith
Be careful. Looks like a she's headed north.
I believe it was just a big order or something like that.It isn`t looking like a trend changing.
  • #7,180
  • May 23, 2008 2:11pm May 23, 2008 2:11pm
Yeah, you're right. DOW looks primed to tank some more next week.
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