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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,121
  • May 23, 2008 1:22am May 23, 2008 1:22am
I'm expecting UJ to reach its daily pivot at 103.71, just into the top of the Decision Zone. Then I'll trade off the price action from there.....there's only the existing home sales data today at 10am EDT....plenty of time for a reversal (?) before then.....TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #7,122
  • May 23, 2008 2:09am May 23, 2008 2:09am
Quoting Islander
I'm expecting UJ to reach its daily pivot at 103.71, just into the top of the Decision Zone. Then I'll trade off the price action from there.....there's only the existing home sales data today at 10am EDT....plenty of time for a reversal (?) before then.....TWT
The USD/JPY is near it's low for the Session since 5:00 PM EST which is 103.731 on my FXCM platform. The drop started at around 3:00 AM and I see that the Dow Futures are now down 56 and all the Europe exchanges are in the red. The Dow really closed weak yesterday though it was up a bit. Oil is up again this AM so the small reversal has stopped for the moment. Gold is up as well. Yes there is Existing Home Sales at 10:00 AM however it would need to be worse than consensus since expectations are not that high. Thin trading leading into the Memorial Day weekend is also a factor to keep in mind. The EUR/JPY has come off it's high at 163.879 and now trades at 163.28

I put this data out now so that it can be a benchmark and be compared to later data this morning. I am going to catch up on my email and research now and come back in awhile. Thanks for the nice and current chart as it is always helpful to see a picture of where we are.

Have a good FX trading day. It is is about the price of Oil for the moment as we get a spike up for the moment. It could well retest 104.00 before the North America open. Just be aware and alert. Watch EUR/JPY in absence of any new news as it does have a effect at times. IIf you are trading at the moment look for a pattern but be aware the pattern can change at this time of the day more against the downtrend since players try to test in thin markets then again it could also be tested on the downside. It all depends and that is what makes FX trading so fascinating.


Bruce
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  • #7,123
  • Edited 2:20am May 23, 2008 2:11am | Edited 2:20am
pullback at fibo 38.2 ??
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  • #7,124
  • May 23, 2008 2:14am May 23, 2008 2:14am
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Notice the movement in the index as it got stronger but now seems to be getting weaker again. It is very fragile. Keep a eye on it from tiime to time with all the other indicators that should be used.


Bruce
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  • #7,125
  • May 23, 2008 2:26am May 23, 2008 2:26am
Market Comments
Inflation remained firmly in focus yesterday with another huge rise in crude oil prices to 135 dollars a barrel for the front month. Ironically, most of the oil rally was erased later in the day, but fixed income traders still preferred to focus on inflation worries and US treasuries across the curve traded back close to their recent highs in yield. The moves across markets were highly unusual yesterday as we may be seeing a shift in intermarket correlations. If we go back to many of the bigger sell-offs in treasuries in recent months, for example, they were almost always accompanied by a strong rally in equities - as the weak bonds/strong equities combo was a sign of "credit crunch relief". But the last two big sell-offs in bonds have seen little change in equities. After all, eventually equities are going to fret the implications of higher interest rates and inflation and not just take the moves as a knee-jerk sign of risk willingness.
What this means for currencies is not yet clear, but it was interesting to see a combination of a weak AUD and a very weak JPY yesterday, for example. It feels like something is changing here....are we moving into "global stagflation worries" mode and what will this mean for currencies? If this is what we are seeing, it would appear to mean damage for the currencies that have looked strongest on the growth story up until now (for example, EUR and AUD and NOK?) and strength for the currencies that have been weakest due to growth worries (USD and GBP). We caution that this is just a flimsy notion at this point and we'd need to see some more confirmation in coming days before we get too excited about this idea...

GBP finally took back some ground against the Euro yesterday. The previous day's rally was generated by a strong IFO number, but interest rate differentials have been very strongly in favor of GBP in this cross lately, so perhaps the market finally took note. Have we seen a cyclical top now in EURGBP? Have a look at the chart below.
We're at a very interesting inflection point for the USD right here. On the USD Index, we've tested just a hair below the 0.618 Fibo of the move from the cyclical low in mid March to the May 8 high in the USD and yesterday's low in the Index was also the 0.764 retracement level for the move from the late April low (which was itself a 0.764 retracement of the March 17 low to March 24 high). It seems that the USD either finds support here or it falls for a full retest of those March lows. Is oil the determining factor? Technically speaking, we need EURUSD crashing back down through 1.5650 to get a better technical confirmation that the USD will stand up and fight here.
The Bank of Canada's Carney yesterday indicated that it was putting the rally in commodities on the agenda in future rate change considerations and this saw Canadian bond yields jumping higher. The next rate setting meeting is June 10. "When we took our decision in April, we had balanced risks on the inflation side... we will certainly take into account what has happened [with rising commodity prices]." CAD saw little support, however, as a very disappointing Retail Sales figure and a fizzling oil rally later in the day counterbalanced this development. USDCAD is still in the bigger 0.9710 - 1.0380 range. Longer term options traders might take advantage of the low spot price and the fact that we're trading close to 6-month lows in implied volatility and look at long date call options - say a 6-month 1.0400 call for around 100 pips. To offset half of the cost, one could sell a 0.9200 put.
The Bank of Japan is finally fretting a bit about inflation, but the JPY has been anything but strong in response. If global growth worries are moving back to the fore, we have a hard time believing that a fresh leg of JPY weakness is in the cards, yesterday's action notwithstanding...

Thank You...Saxo

Bruce

P.S. It is just food for thought as conditions are always changing and you need to be aware to be a complete FX trader in my humble opinion. I am still in my humble mode.
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  • #7,126
  • May 23, 2008 2:51am May 23, 2008 2:51am
Quoting plumiash
pullback at fibo 38.2 ??

break! now testing 50.0 level..
  • #7,127
  • May 23, 2008 2:55am May 23, 2008 2:55am
The USD/JPY had a big drop starting around 5:10 AM and the new low is 103.454 as EUR/JPY pulled back below 163.00 to touch a low of 162.599 and now is moving back to 162.85 as USD/JPY is at 103.55

Interesting morning so far. I closed a bunch of positions a bit under water before the quick drop and I only have two open positions now heading into the 10:00 US Existing Home Sales.

Bruce
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  • #7,128
  • May 23, 2008 3:36am May 23, 2008 3:36am
Quoting Warren Forex
The USD/JPY had a big drop starting around 5:10 AM and the new low is 103.454 as EUR/JPY pulled back below 163.00 to touch a low of 162.599 and now is moving back to 162.85 as USD/JPY is at 103.55

Interesting morning so far. I closed a bunch of positions a bit under water before the quick drop and I only have two open positions now heading into the 10:00 US Existing Home Sales.

Bruce
hi bruce!

may i know your current position right now? long usd/jpy or short it?
  • #7,129
  • May 23, 2008 3:42am May 23, 2008 3:42am
Us Dollar Index still getting weaker. Please click on the link in another post previous to this post to see for yourself.

USD/JPY at 103.59 bid...EUR/JPY at 162.89 bid

Oil UP $1.46 at $132.27...Gold UP $4.80 at $923.10...Dow Futures down 45

Silver over $18 again and Europe is in the red now on all exchanges though not by much. The Nikkei only closed up a bit so all in all we have a negative perception again which matches with reality. The next point of change or no change will be at 10:00 AM EST with the USA Existing Home Sales which is a LAGGING Indicator. Tuesday should be New Home Sales which is a LEADING Indicator even though Data is released in the same month. So a GOOD or better than Consensus Existing Home Sales Number can be QUICKLY reversed usually the next day when the New Home Sales number for the month comes out. I have made some GOOD PROFITS being aware of this FACT.

The change in PERCEPTION from Positive to Negative or as I call it getting back to REALITY and this is WHERE Fundamental Analysis and Knowledge gets you the EDGE in Forex Trading.

If you have not as yet been to the FREE Site WWW.JSMINESET.COM please visit it each day to get the real economic news without the SPIN and BS...

Good Trading Day...Folks...Off for Breakfast as USD/JPY is now 103.51 Bid...
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  • #7,130
  • May 23, 2008 3:48am May 23, 2008 3:48am
Quoting Warren Forex
Us Dollar Index still getting weaker. Please click on the link in another post previous to this post to see for yourself.

USD/JPY at 103.59 bid...EUR/JPY at 162.89 bid

Oil UP $1.46 at $132.27...Gold UP $4.80 at $923.10...Dow Futures down 45

Silver over $18 again and Europe is in the red now on all exchanges though not by much. The Nikkei only closed up a bit so all in all we have a negative perception again which matches with reality. The next point of change or no change will be at 10:00 AM EST with the USA Existing Home Sales which is a LAGGING Indicator. Tuesday should be New Home Sales which is a LEADING Indicator even though Data is released in the same month. So a GOOD or better than Consensus Existing Home Sales Number can be QUICKLY reversed usually the next day when the New Home Sales number for the month comes out. I have made some GOOD PROFITS being aware of this FACT.

The change in PERCEPTION from Positive to Negative or as I call it getting back to REALITY and this is WHERE Fundamental Analysis and Knowledge gets you the EDGE in Forex Trading.

If you have not as yet been to the FREE Site WWW.JSMINESET.COM please visit it each day to get the real economic news without the SPIN and BS...

Good Trading Day...Folks...Off for Breakfast as USD/JPY is now 103.51 Bid...
Great info Warren, saves having to visit 5 different websites, and as usual with you is informative, and on the nail, thanks for your input, really appreciate your dedication to helping other traders

Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #7,131
  • May 23, 2008 3:52am May 23, 2008 3:52am
Quoting plumiash
hi bruce!

may i know your current position right now? long usd/jpy or short it?
When I say a 30 day view I do not mean using the charts but my sense of where things are as relates to the Dow and the economy and where the central banks are in the interest rate cycle. I rarely trade against the short term trend as my strategy is to short as it gets close to resistance so in the case of USD/JPY it was 104.40 and then ride it down. If it had got over 104.40 to say 104.65 I might have needed to change my views real short term.

I use the TOP of the 1 minute or 5 Minute Bollinger Band for my entry point in shorting USD/JPY and in blocks or units of 100K using $1000 in actual capital trying to never use more than 20% of my capital or my clients capital at any one time in order not to be over leveraged which at 100 to 1 is leverage enough.

Bottom Line I am short two positions at the moment and I will exit them around 103.45 as I have held these last two positions for a few days now. All the others were closed with profits.

I hope this post was helpful to you and others.

Bruce
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  • #7,132
  • May 23, 2008 3:54am May 23, 2008 3:54am
Quoting pepbullish
Price 104.31
TP 103.46
SL 104.86
Attachment
I went to sleep and not trusted in a big fall, then closed my 2 sales at 103.80.
Now, i want entry long, if dji stay uo tp 12570

  • #7,133
  • May 23, 2008 4:02am May 23, 2008 4:02am
Quoting Warren Forex
Us Dollar Index still getting weaker. Please click on the link in another post previous to this post to see for yourself.

USD/JPY at 103.59 bid...EUR/JPY at 162.89 bid

Oil UP $1.46 at $132.27...Gold UP $4.80 at $923.10...Dow Futures down 45

Silver over $18 again and Europe is in the red now on all exchanges though not by much. The Nikkei only closed up a bit so all in all we have a negative perception again which matches with reality. The next point of change or no change will be at 10:00 AM EST with the USA Existing Home Sales which is a LAGGING Indicator. Tuesday should be New Home Sales which is a LEADING Indicator even though Data is released in the same month. So a GOOD or better than Consensus Existing Home Sales Number can be QUICKLY reversed usually the next day when the New Home Sales number for the month comes out. I have made some GOOD PROFITS being aware of this FACT.

The change in PERCEPTION from Positive to Negative or as I call it getting back to REALITY and this is WHERE Fundamental Analysis and Knowledge gets you the EDGE in Forex Trading.

If you have not as yet been to the FREE Site WWW.JSMINESET.COM please visit it each day to get the real economic news without the SPIN and BS...

Good Trading Day...Folks...Off for Breakfast as USD/JPY is now 103.51 Bid...
Good Morning Mr. Bruce.....Just wanna ask you which platform you are using to monitor Light Sweet Crude, Gold and Dow Futures? I'm using GCI. Can you recommend any others good platform? Thanks

Regards

Harrison.
  • #7,134
  • May 23, 2008 4:30am May 23, 2008 4:30am
Quoting ehcydotcom
Good Morning Mr. Bruce.....Just wanna ask you which platform you are using to monitor Light Sweet Crude, Gold and Dow Futures? I'm using GCI. Can you recommend any others good platform? Thanks

Regards

Harrison.
I run a HP AMD 4200 Dual Processor with 3 flat screen Samsung 19 inch monitors and for the data that you mention I find that my TV to the left of my 3 monitors set on CNBC gives me all the other data live.

I see now that Dow Futures are down 59 and Oil is UP $1.97 and the Dax and FTSE are down with the Futures now down 61 so you can see that this is the most effective method for me with my setup.

Good Morning To You...

Bruce
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  • #7,135
  • May 23, 2008 4:40am May 23, 2008 4:40am
i want 3 flat screen Samsung 19 too
  • #7,136
  • May 23, 2008 4:48am May 23, 2008 4:48am
Quoting pepbullish
i want 3 flat screen Samsung 19 too
i want it tooo!!
Attached Image
  • #7,137
  • May 23, 2008 4:49am May 23, 2008 4:49am
May 23, 2008 7:31 AM EST

Dear Fellow Posters on Forex Factory

Rarely does someone speak out and address the TRUTH. When facts are involved that clearly are facts such as 1 + 1 = 2 then there can be no doubt as to it being the TRUTH.

Here is a EDITORIAL that I just read on the website called ;
WWW.FINANCIALSENSE.COM and here is the link to the editorial in question.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0522.html

It is very important to your financial future if you take the time to read it, understand it and accept it because like it or not it is the TRUTH.

Why is it important to you and your future ?

The World through it's Puppet Masters have gone to far like they always do. Unfortunately for the uninformed things are about to happen that will not necessary be good short term for investors. The fairy tale of consumption and a free lunch is coming to a end in the USA without any doubt. Of course the whole universe will be affected as well.

Be informed, be aware and since NONE OF US directly caused this situation there is nothing wrong from benefiting by your knowledge of the events about to unfold rather swiftly. Of course it has been unfolding since the year 2000 but we are now entering a new stage.

No FORCE in this world can stop it's unfolding and the Laws of Nature or if you believe in a G-D as I do can stop it. The balance needs to be restored and the rules of economics will lead the way even though the rules have been circumvented in the last 10 years or so.

As the writer correctly pointed out the INTERNET has educated those who want to really know and understand. The POWER of Government is being diminished and FREE WILL and JUSTICE will now start it's voyage home.

A NEW President in the USA. The Storm before the calm. The STORM is here and you need to be ready for it in order to prosper and not just be dragged along complaining about it.

WE the people are the World. Our Time is now so let us move forward together in friendship in harmony so help us G-D

Amen...

Bruce
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  • #7,138
  • May 23, 2008 4:58am May 23, 2008 4:58am
Quoting Warren Forex
May 23, 2008 7:31 AM EST

Dear Fellow Posters on Forex Factory

Rarely does someone speak out and address the TRUTH. When facts are involved that clearly are facts such as 1 + 1 = 2 then there can be no doubt as to it being the TRUTH.

Here is a EDITORIAL that I just read on the website called ;
WWW.FINANCIALSENSE.COM and here is the link to the editorial in question.

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0522.html

It is very important to your financial future if you take the time to read it, understand it and accept it because like it or not it is the TRUTH.

Why is it important to you and your future ?

The World through it's Puppet Masters have gone to far like they always do. Unfortunately for the uninformed things are about to happen that will not necessary be good short term for investors. The fairy tale of consumption and a free lunch is coming to a end in the USA without any doubt. Of course the whole universe will be affected as well.

Be informed, be aware and since NONE OF US directly caused this situation there is nothing wrong from benefiting by your knowledge of the events about to unfold rather swiftly. Of course it has been unfolding since the year 2000 but we are now entering a new stage.

No FORCE in this world can stop it's unfolding and the Laws of Nature or if you believe in a G-D as I do can stop it. The balance needs to be restored and the rules of economics will lead the way even though the rules have been circumvented in the last 10 years or so.

As the writer correctly pointed out the INTERNET has educated those who want to really know and understand. The POWER of Government is being diminished and FREE WILL and JUSTICE will now start it's voyage home.

A NEW President in the USA. The Storm before the calm. The STORM is here and you need to be ready for it in order to prosper and not just be dragged along complaining about it.

WE the people are the World. Our Time is now so let us move forward together in friendship in harmony so help us G-D

Amen...

Bruce

Just imagine you are going to bet on a horse race and you are fortunate to know the results beforehand and once a week you can go to that race track and keep betting on just one race a week for the next three years.

Well knowing that GOLD is going OVER $1000 or Copper and Food will rise in cost because of Countries like China and other's changing the dynamics of the World economy.

Then add to that the knowledge of the ending of fraud and manipulation in the USA markets as the Bankers pay the short term price as we all do for their stupidity and human greed then as we see another TRILLION DOLLARS in losses and Gold Rises with Silver and other related things occur keep investing your money in the Horse Race Of Life and join me if you so desire in coming for a ride in my new 2009 Lamborgini Burgundy Color...

Bruce
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  • #7,139
  • May 23, 2008 5:05am May 23, 2008 5:05am
Warren, have you seen Zeitgeist, superb documentary, dealing with difficult truths
Money & Pain Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
  • #7,140
  • May 23, 2008 5:07am May 23, 2008 5:07am
Quoting Warren Forex
I run a HP AMD 4200 Dual Processor with 3 flat screen Samsung 19 inch monitors and for the data that you mention I find that my TV to the left of my 3 monitors set on CNBC gives me all the other data live.

I see now that Dow Futures are down 59 and Oil is UP $1.97 and the Dax and FTSE are down with the Futures now down 61 so you can see that this is the most effective method for me with my setup.

Good Morning To You...

Bruce

Wow......Izzit something like these

http://i.cmpnet.com/financetech/gall...l/DSC_0785.jpg
http://i.cmpnet.com/financetech/gall...l/DSC_0767.jpg
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