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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #501
  • May 22, 2008 2:30pm May 22, 2008 2:30pm
Quoting Archiphage
OBs are definitely tradeable. They tend to be higher-risk entries than IBs, so you have to take them with smaller size. You can mitigate the risk by waiting for a retracement after the break. 50% is a good rule of thumb, but you can use anything that makes sense to you. Of course, as with IBs, the best trades will often offer no retracement at all. Stop goes at the opposite extreme of the bar, of course.

Nice. Good stuff Arch.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #502
  • May 22, 2008 2:33pm May 22, 2008 2:33pm
I hope Peter's recent post clears up the Opening time situation.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=335
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #503
  • May 22, 2008 3:18pm May 22, 2008 3:18pm
Quoting Shefa
Hello HT,

Thanks for your words. I am afraid, trading is more like a game for me, than like the "real thing". That's why I try all the currencies. In a few days, I belive I shell choose myself the right once, regarding that strategy.
I had a very bed day today. After the -48pps in the morning, I was checking the system in a way I did not do before. I made some conclusions, which will not nessecerily help, but I shell try them tomorrow, and share if it is worthwhile(?).
Also, I lost about 40 pps in the E/J IB, as I did not treated the spread correctly. and......missed the ling run of the G/J IB, as I wae reading about the resistance level, so I moved my s.l. to the +2pps too soon, and it was hitted.

Lucky me, there is a new day tomorrow.

I am happy for all those who have succeeded today,

Shefa.
I also had a very "bed" day ... gone to bed, went out a little and no trading at all. (just kidding, for you to relax with your bad day...) I think tomorrow will be a better day on early morning. Today there were too much counter-trend to my stomach, but now I see there were also good potential trades on JPY, EUR and CHF... As you said, tomorrow is another day . The market will ALWAYS be there, so, don't ever, NEVER chase it... It is stronger, and always right.

You're in the right way... testing, loosing some, re-testing, winning some, in other words refining your trading style.

I am trading the method just like Peter Crowns taught. Not caring about S/R lines, Fibs, Stochs, all that funny stuff that makes our charts looks like a Picasso... but I prefer to trade... kind of "naked" , but it's my style. If you like some indicators, no problem at all, they can be excellent tools, just don't put them all on the chart, you may miss the big picture...

Don't hurry, but also don't over-analyze... It's a delicate balance... Remember, always study your loosing trades, try to figure out what was wrong.

Cheers,

and a better day tomorrow!

HT
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #504
  • May 22, 2008 4:30pm May 22, 2008 4:30pm
Hey guys. Here is the results of the Gbp/chf trade I took this morning. I exited with 52 pips, but had I been patient, I could of possibly netted upto 160 pips. I felt a little nervous about the trade, because the overall main trend is very "down" on the g/c, but I put my feelings aside and ran with the trade. The pound was very strong last night (morning)... I was loosing my ass trying to pick tops on G/U and had to make some pips back. Glad G/C worked out.

G/U -100 pips. Still holding.. (not using the Dibs method)
G/C +52 Using the Dibs Method.

I really enjoy this thread. Thanks Jarroo, Mr. Crown, and all that have been here to help us along the way. I think we may be on to something powerful here. Let us keep this thread alive and well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ib.gif Size: 38 KB
Things can get Real ugly, Real quick!!!
  • #505
  • May 22, 2008 4:47pm May 22, 2008 4:47pm
Quoting robincys
What's the 3 ma setting in your chart?
Robinyc

I use 10sma 20sma 50ema....

Those are the ma's you see on my charts.
I also use 100 sma and 200 ema. Must haves for me.
Things can get Real ugly, Real quick!!!
  • #506
  • Edited 8:02pm May 22, 2008 4:49pm | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting TradeStar
Hi Jarroo and other DIBS followers

what is the current understanding on the re-entry. If we get stopped out on an IB only to see a bar or two later the trade going back in our way.

Do we again re-enter exactly at the same price with the same stop loss?

OR just move on and look for another opportunity?

Did Peter had a opinion on this and what do you folks do

I see quite a few cases in this week, where you get stopped out and price comes back and goes for a solid ride.

Thanks much in advance

TS
I will have to disagree with the earlier responses to this post. I feel that once an IB is broken and stopped out, that you are done with it. Just take the loss and move on. I feel that re-entering with the hope that you will make up your loss is just wishful thinking.

IB's indicate consolidation and we trade the breakout resulting from it. If the breakout fails and gets stopped out, then it means it is a false alarm and the consolidation period is over. Just take your loss and move on.

So if we are trading a breakout, please explain to me this. So price moves through your limit order and triggers a trade but then you get stopped out before it makes it to 1:1, when price returns and breaks through the IB again, how is the second time a breakout? It is not. The price level has no more significance. That price level now becomes a grain of sand on a beach. It is just coincidence that the second time around the trade succeeded. You can just as easily be stopped out again.

Also, since the price did not make it to 1:1 the first time, what does that mean? It means that the breakout was weak and "not really a breakout." Why would you trade that again?

But wait! It could be a false breakout!
Yes, it might have been a false breakout if the break of the IB is only 1-5 pips. But if it broke it by more, it is not a false breakout, and in my opinion invalidates the IB consolidation and breakout trade.

I don’t feel that re-entering a stopped out IB trade is a high probability trade, and that’s what we are looking for, right? I personally would not re-enter.

Edwin
  • #507
  • May 22, 2008 4:54pm May 22, 2008 4:54pm
Quoting Archiphage
OBs are definitely tradeable. They tend to be higher-risk entries than IBs, so you have to take them with smaller size. You can mitigate the risk by waiting for a retracement after the break. 50% is a good rule of thumb, but you can use anything that makes sense to you. Of course, as with IBs, the best trades will often offer no retracement at all. Stop goes at the opposite extreme of the bar, of course.
Thanks Archiphage. I agree. Only thing with OB are fake stop outs are very less. Meaning, if it gets stopped out pretty much trade is not going our way.

Thanks
TS
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #508
  • May 22, 2008 5:05pm May 22, 2008 5:05pm
Thanks Edwin, for your inputs.

The reason I even wrote this in the first place is, I did notice many occurrence where Price stops us out and continues to come back go our way later.

Thanks
TS

Quoting edwinnk
I will have to disagree with the earlier responses to this post. I feel that once an IB is broken and stopped out, that you are done with it. Just take the loss and move on. I feel that re-entering with the hope that you will make up your loss is just wishful thinking.

IB's indicate consolidation and we trade the breakout resulting from it. If the breakout fails and gets stopped out, then it means it is a false alarm and the consolidation period is over. Just take your loss and move on.

So if we are trading a breakout, please explain to me this. So price moves through your limit order and triggers a trade but then you get stopped out before it makes it to 1:1, when price returns and breaks through the IB again, how is the second time a breakout? It is not. The price has no more significance. That price now becomes a grain of sand on a beach. It is just coincidence that the second time around the trade succeeded. You can just as easily be stopped out again.

Also, since the price did not make it to 1:1 the first time, what does that mean? It means that the breakout was weak and "not really a breakout." Why would you trade that again?

But wait! It could be a false breakout!
Yes, it might have been a false breakout if the break of the IB is only 1-5 pips. But if it broke it by more, it is not a false breakout, and in my opinion invalidates the IB consolidation and breakout trade.

I don’t feel that re-entering a stopped out IB trade is a high probability trade, and that’s what we are looking for, right? I personally would not re-enter.

Edwin
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #509
  • May 22, 2008 5:12pm May 22, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting jarroo
My quick answer to this is you would re-enter. As long as the basic rules are not being violated, it's a playable IB.
Yes, no rules for IB are broken, but do u still have high probability on your side?
  • #510
  • Edited 6:04pm May 22, 2008 5:37pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting edwinnk
I will have to disagree with the earlier responses to this post. I feel that once an IB is broken and stopped out, that you are done with it. Just take the loss and move on. I feel that re-entering with the hope that you will make up your loss is just wishful thinking.

IB's indicate consolidation and we trade the breakout resulting from it. If the breakout fails and gets stopped out, then it means it is a false alarm and the consolidation period is over. Just take your loss and move on.

So if we are trading a breakout, please explain to me this. So price moves through your limit order and triggers a trade but then you get stopped out before it makes it to 1:1, when price returns and breaks through the IB again, how is the second time a breakout? It is not. The price has no more significance. That price now becomes a grain of sand on a beach. It is just coincidence that the second time around the trade succeeded. You can just as easily be stopped out again.

Also, since the price did not make it to 1:1 the first time, what does that mean? It means that the breakout was weak and "not really a breakout." Why would you trade that again?

But wait! It could be a false breakout!
Yes, it might have been a false breakout if the break of the IB is only 1-5 pips. But if it broke it by more, it is not a false breakout, and in my opinion invalidates the IB consolidation and breakout trade.

I don’t feel that re-entering a stopped out IB trade is a high probability trade, and that’s what we are looking for, right? I personally would not re-enter.

Edwin

You have convinced me. I retract my re-entry answer.

What you said ed, just makes sense. If Price breaks out of a IB and then fizzles out and then happens to fall back into the range of that IB, its invalid.

Unless Peter tells me otherwise about this situation(since he has more experience trading this method), the IB is only good for the initial breakout. After that, a new IB needs to form again.

Thanks ed.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #511
  • May 22, 2008 6:20pm May 22, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting edwinnk
I will have to disagree with the earlier responses to this post. I feel that once an IB is broken and stopped out, that you are done with it. Just take the loss and move on. I feel that re-entering with the hope that you will make up your loss is just wishful thinking.

IB's indicate consolidation and we trade the breakout resulting from it. If the breakout fails and gets stopped out, then it means it is a false alarm and the consolidation period is over. Just take your loss and move on.

So if we are trading a breakout, please explain to me this. So price moves through your limit order and triggers a trade but then you get stopped out before it makes it to 1:1, when price returns and breaks through the IB again, how is the second time a breakout? It is not. The price has no more significance. That price now becomes a grain of sand on a beach. It is just coincidence that the second time around the trade succeeded. You can just as easily be stopped out again.

Also, since the price did not make it to 1:1 the first time, what does that mean? It means that the breakout was weak and "not really a breakout." Why would you trade that again?

But wait! It could be a false breakout!
Yes, it might have been a false breakout if the break of the IB is only 1-5 pips. But if it broke it by more, it is not a false breakout, and in my opinion invalidates the IB consolidation and breakout trade.

I don’t feel that re-entering a stopped out IB trade is a high probability trade, and that’s what we are looking for, right? I personally would not re-enter.

Edwin


Nice input. I personally don't take the re-entry too, in a case like this cause conceptually I would be "forcing" the market, chasing a breakout that failed once. Burning accounts is what I see on doing this...

But I also take IB that are not in the first bar. I know, shame on me... it's a perversion of the system, but I feel comfortable dong it in selected cases...

Just for fun... see the picture... In this case if I weren't already in the free trade, I would set up an order following the DIBS formed (dotted lines). Once my order was not filled, and the following bar didn't break the big bar on the dotted lines, I would set up again an entry order, considering the 2nd bar also an IB.... . For me, it was still a consolidation movement, so the breakout would still be valid.... wondering, wondering....

Sorry, I'm terrible with this attachment functions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf1.jpg Size: 214 KB
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #512
  • May 22, 2008 8:43pm May 22, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting f4mnect
Thank you very much. Hope it makes since and it's a help. but from it's info heres what its telling me on my gbp/jpy current trade

48% of all gbp/jpy trends are between 101-200 pips, plus alot of other info. why i'm still holding but with 100 pips locked in. also 49% of trends are on wednesday and thursday
Thanks for those stats, I love that stuff...

Quoting jarroo
You have convinced me. I retract my re-entry answer.

What you said ed, just makes sense. If Price breaks out of a IB and then fizzles out and then happens to fall back into the range of that IB, its invalid.

Unless Peter tells me otherwise about this situation(since he has more experience trading this method), the IB is only good for the initial breakout. After that, a new IB needs to form again.

Thanks ed.
I also agree with what Edwinnk posted, I find it safer although re-entering can be very tempting...
  • #513
  • May 22, 2008 8:47pm May 22, 2008 8:47pm
can someone please clarify what has been decided in one single post the time determined as the opening day, and if its different for certain pairs. I am reading the whole thread at this moment and am seeing alot of things, so wondering if any conclusions have been met, if they have, please direct me to that post. thanks alot, this method looks exceptional
  • #514
  • May 22, 2008 9:08pm May 22, 2008 9:08pm
Quoting samdruss44
can someone please clarify what has been decided in one single post the time determined as the opening day, and if its different for certain pairs. I am reading the whole thread at this moment and am seeing alot of things, so wondering if any conclusions have been met, if they have, please direct me to that post. thanks alot, this method looks exceptional

London 6GMT is the standard (but depending on your broker that time may differ on your charts), simply adjust that according to your brokers day opening time.

For instance London 6GMT currently = 5GMT with IBfx or 8GMT with FxPro/NorthFinance, remember daylight savings is currently in affect.

See Peter's quote below...

Quoting PeterCrowns
-bluefox-

The opening time is as I stated: GMT 06:00 or EST 01:00.

For anyone still reading this link for DIBS info:

If you have some extremely good reason (like tons of intraday data going back 35 years, and statistical variance maps that indicate something I haven't discovered already---) that indicates a different time for starting your trading day, please go ahead and use it. That will be your own little edge.

Otherwise, you might just want to try using the above mentioned starting time.

Thanks -bluefox- for stimulating a clarification.

-PeterCrowns-
  • #515
  • May 22, 2008 9:23pm May 22, 2008 9:23pm
Hi guys. Now Im confused. I see GMT as GMT no matter where you are in the world. NZ where I am is GMT +12. What I deduce from Peter's quote is 6 GMT which is 6 London time, is the standard. London is on DST, but GMT is not. I take it that 5 gmt is now the time to start the day for trades.
What do you think?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #516
  • May 22, 2008 9:40pm May 22, 2008 9:40pm
Quoting bogus
Hi guys. Now Im confused. I see GMT as GMT no matter where you are in the world. NZ where I am is GMT +12. What I deduce from Peter's quote is 6 GMT which is 6 London time, is the standard. London is on DST, but GMT is not. I take it that 5 gmt is now the time to start the day for trades.
What do you think?

The opening price is just depending on u. U can choose one for ur own trading hours no matter what. But dont only use this price as trend reference, specially during the first couples of hours when the trend is not clear. Use trend line, also look at the overall trend in higher tf.
  • #517
  • May 22, 2008 9:45pm May 22, 2008 9:45pm
Hi Robin, I think you misunderstood me. Im trying to get to the bottom of what Peter does, and the confusion of his stated time. Im happy with 5 GMT, It is when the market starts to move as I see it.Im pretty sure he'd adjust his time for DST.It just stands to reason.Cheers.
Quoting robincys
The opening price is just depending on u. U can choose one for ur own trading hours no matter what. But dont only use this price as trend reference, specially during the first couples of hours when the trend is not clear. Use trend line, also look at the overall trend in higher tf.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #518
  • May 22, 2008 9:58pm May 22, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting bogus
Hi Robin, I think you misunderstood me. Im trying to get to the bottom of what Peter does, and the confusion of his stated time. Im happy with 5 GMT, It is when the market starts to move as I see it.Im pretty sure he'd adjust his time for DST.It just stands to reason.Cheers.
I think if u take one of the indicator, it will show the opening hour. By the way, I noticed all people here taking GMT 6:00 (which is 16:00 in my GMT+10 zone). Hope this helps.
  • #519
  • May 22, 2008 10:02pm May 22, 2008 10:02pm
Not sure whether u guy noticed there are lots of bad IB break out when market is quite and the trend is not clear. That means I need further study of this.
  • #520
  • May 22, 2008 10:14pm May 22, 2008 10:14pm
Thanks Robin. I think Jim takes 5gmt(please correct me Jim if Im wrong) I think I might concentrate on trading London and NY rather than Asia. Its probably fair enough that todays quiet after such a big night.Im now taking trades off the inside break, not as I said I was with waiting for the previous bar to be taken out.
Quoting robincys
I think if u take one of the indicator, it will show the opening hour. By the way, I noticed all people here taking GMT 6:00 (which is 16:00 in my GMT+10 zone). Hope this helps.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
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