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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #7,001
  • May 22, 2008 8:02am May 22, 2008 8:02am
Quoting naOki
Thanks!

2 yr bond yield 2.520%
Oil 134.55
Gold 925.00
Dow futures +1

I have a feeling that the DOW are ready to temporarily rebound due to the better than expected data so it might break through 103.65 once the market opens so I wont short now.

I will see how the market opens first, then short it.
Patience...Common Sense...Always A Opportunity To Trade

WOW Look at That Spike !!!
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  • #7,002
  • May 22, 2008 8:07am May 22, 2008 8:07am
Quoting tennisguy
Waren,

Thanks for your posts . keep up the good work.

I wanted to ask you. where could I get for free quotes of the 2 year bond yield (as Naoiki posted : 2 y bond yield 2.520%).

Txs.

tennisguy
That channel if you can handle the constant cheerleading which I guess is normal under the circumstances of their job.

It shows Gold, Oil, 2 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year plus all the Averages. I could not trade USD/JPY properly without it. There are other sources though. You could put Bloomberg TV on your computer through the internet.

As a side note what I will do now is try to find out what caused the SPIKE UP. Stay Tuned or Give US a Report if you find out.


Bruce
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  • #7,003
  • May 22, 2008 8:09am May 22, 2008 8:09am
Quoting Warren Forex
Patience...Common Sense...Always A Opportunity To Trade

WOW Look at That Spike !!!
103.65 broken

next resistance, 103.90? then 104.15?

Maybe short in between?
  • #7,004
  • May 22, 2008 8:13am May 22, 2008 8:13am
Quoting Warren Forex
That channel if you can handle the constant cheerleading which I guess is normal under the circumstances of their job.

It shows Gold, Oil, 2 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year plus all the Averages. I could not trade USD/JPY properly without it. There are other sources though. You could put Bloomberg TV on your computer through the internet.

As a side note what I will do now is try to find out what caused the SPIKE UP. Stay Tuned or Give US a Report if you find out.


Bruce
I see EUR/JPY spiked through 163.00 to 163.24 with the HIGH at 163.31

What that means in plain english is that a large order might have gone through selling JPY and Buying Euro.

The effect could be temporary and when it reverses it helps USD/JPY to go down. These are some of the other factors you need to be aware of when you trade USD/JPY.

When I first started trading this currency I was not really aware of it and now my FX trading has improved with this additional knowledge.

Bruce
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  • #7,005
  • May 22, 2008 8:16am May 22, 2008 8:16am
-2 Years US Treasury Up Strengthen USD
-Dow Jones Up Strengthen USD
-Oil Up Weaken USD
-Gold Up Weaken USD
-other important announcement

correct me if im wrong guys.

thnks.
me
  • #7,006
  • May 22, 2008 8:28am May 22, 2008 8:28am
Quoting naOki
103.65 broken

next resistance, 103.90? then 104.15?

Maybe short in between?

Next area of resistance should be around 104.20, but I expect a retrace here in the short term, so buy the dip is my plan.

Patience. Still trying to master patience.

Ron.
  • #7,007
  • May 22, 2008 8:29am May 22, 2008 8:29am
Quoting naOki
103.65 broken

next resistance, 103.90? then 104.15?

Maybe short in between?

DJ Futures are only UP a little so no guarantee that USD/JPY will go much higher. This is where I want EVERYONE reading this POST to learn about Scaling In. NOT AVERAGING DOWN A LOSS.

Let Us Say You Are Managing $25,000 US Dollars or a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account.

Let Us Look At The $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account I Suggest EVERYONE Open Up with my suggestion to open it with FXCM where in the light of FULL DISCLOSURE I am a Introducing Broker.

I USE FXCM because their platform lets you control each FX trade from any other. It also would be great If each and everyone of you can reach my target goal of each of you earning at least 10% a month on your Demo Trading. It would greatly increase your confidence level.

Regardless of the platform you use or with what currency house here is my strategy that WORKS.

I waited until the Jobless Claims came out. The Previous Resistance was 103.50 so when it got to 103.55 I shorted just one position only using $1000 to control 100K

It spiked UP to 103.778 so once it calmed down I shorted a second position at 103.65 or so. Maybe even a 3RD at 103.75...

I Stop now using only 6% of my Total Demo or Real Capital. $3000 US of $50,000 US

That is my TRADE PLAN. I have Stops at 103.80 and 103.90 and 104.05 so on a worst case scenario at 104.10 I lose 80 PIPS or $800 US which is only 1.6% of my capital. When and IF like it is starting to do now I am in the profit with any or all of my 3 FX USD/JPY positions I lower my STOP to LOCK in a SURE Profit of 10 PIPS or better and as it moves down if it does I lower my STOP manually each 10 PIPS down.

Look at Where It Trades now...

103.59 and Dow is opening now.

Bruce
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  • #7,008
  • May 22, 2008 8:31am May 22, 2008 8:31am
So far your crystal ball's doing good!


Quoting Ron3226
Dusting off the crystal ball, I'm feeling bullish today. I think we'll have a pullback then up from there. So I guess that would mean that I'm expecting positive U.S. news this morning.

Just a hunch, nothing that I would recommend trading on. I won't be able to trade the news release this morning due to another commitment, so good luck to all.

Ron.
  • #7,009
  • May 22, 2008 8:42am May 22, 2008 8:42am
Quoting Ron3226
Next area of resistance should be around 104.20, but I expect a retrace here in the short term, so buy the dip is my plan.

Patience. Still trying to master patience.

Ron.
You are playing with Fire Going against the TREND short term which is DOWN in my opinion. Even if it is UP you are better off waiting until it gets higher or to the TOP of the 5 Minute or 1 Minute Bollinger Band and Then Shorting it. Why ?

It can come down much faster than it can GO UP as at 104.00 and 104.25 and HIGHER is MUCH Resistance so UNLESS Oil Drops OFF and Dow Goes UP Over 100 Odds are better it comes back. Gold Is Off some about $5 and Dow is UP 24 BUT it could be short covering and there is some low level housing data coming out at 10:00 AM

That is the way I play it...

Good Trading...

Bruce

P.S. Always TAKE some profits when you can. 10 PIPS on a $1000 Investment is Still $100 or 10% in a matter of minutes. Win 60% PLUS of your FX trades and you are a Winner. I usually WIN at least 80% with my ALL TIME RECORD at PFG trading REAL FUNDS 693 In A Row...

Sorry My EGO still exists thankfully but ALWAYS be Humble as WELL. The FX Market takes NO PRISONERS.

Keep In Mind The End Of Europe Trading Between 11:00 AM and NOON and VARIOUS Option Expiries on Currency Options EACH day at 10:00 AM

Bruce
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  • #7,010
  • May 22, 2008 8:46am May 22, 2008 8:46am
Quoting Warren Forex
That channel if you can handle the constant cheerleading which I guess is normal under the circumstances of their job.

It shows Gold, Oil, 2 Year, 5 Year, 10 Year and 30 Year plus all the Averages. I could not trade USD/JPY properly without it. There are other sources though. You could put Bloomberg TV on your computer through the internet.

As a side note what I will do now is try to find out what caused the SPIKE UP. Stay Tuned or Give US a Report if you find out.


Bruce
thanks Bruce.

I have CNBC always on. I especially enjoy the 4 am-6 am EST (the foreign exchange from Europe. good group of people) also I like the trio of 6 - 9 am Est of (Joe, Becky and Carl). Also I like Erin at 9 am est.

Cheers. and keep up the good work. In the future we will talk ove the phone.

Tennisguy
  • #7,011
  • May 22, 2008 8:54am May 22, 2008 8:54am
I feel that we are going up today, for how much longer I'm not sure. Probably a retrace coming up here, but I don't see this as a reason to go short.

Just my 2 pips.

I'll ride the trend up until it doesn't benefit me anymore. Perhaps we trade different time frames. I probably don't hold on to my trades quite as long as you do.

I don't know.

I'm probably just crazy, but it's working for me.

I don't want to take away from what you are trying to teach, so I'll just go hang out in the lounge.

Peace Out.

Ron.
  • #7,012
  • May 22, 2008 9:02am May 22, 2008 9:02am
Quoting Warren Forex
You are playing with Fire Going against the TREND short term which is DOWN in my opinion. Even if it is UP you are better off waiting until it gets higher or to the TOP of the 5 Minute or 1 Minute Bollinger Band and Then Shorting it. Why ?

It can come down much faster than it can GO UP as at 104.00 and 104.25 and HIGHER is MUCH Resistance so UNLESS Oil Drops OFF and Dow Goes UP Over 100 Odds are better it comes back. Gold Is Off some about $5 and Dow is UP 24 BUT it could be short covering and there is some low level housing data coming out at 10:00 AM

That is the way I play it...

Good Trading...

Bruce

P.S. Always TAKE some profits when you can. 10 PIPS on a $1000 Investment is Still $100 or 10% in a matter of minutes. Win 60% PLUS of your FX trades and you are a Winner. I usually WIN at least 80% with my ALL TIME RECORD at PFG trading REAL FUNDS 693 In A Row...

Sorry My EGO still exists thankfully but ALWAYS be Humble as WELL. The FX Market takes NO PRISONERS.

Keep In Mind The End Of Europe Trading Between 11:00 AM and NOON and VARIOUS Option Expiries on Currency Options EACH day at 10:00 AM

Bruce

After I posted my comment about being humble I got this in my daily emails. I share it with you in copy and paste form just to give you an insight into my way of living and thinking which relates to human psychology and by extension the ability to be a winner in life and in currency trading.

A Spiritual Guide to the counting of the Omer
Forty-Nine Steps to Personal Refinement
Courtesy of www.MeaningfulLife.com
* * *

Day Five of Week 5
Hod of Hod

Examine the humility of humility. Everyone has humility and modesty in their hearts, the question is the measure and manner in which one consciously feels it? Am I afraid to be too humble? Do I mask and protect my modesty with aggressive behavior?

Learn to cultivate your humility by interacting with people who are more refined than yourself, evoking in you modesty and humility that motivates you to grow.

Humility must also be examined for its genuineness. Is my humility humble? Or is it yet another expression of arrogance? Do I take too much pride in my humility? Do I flaunt it? Is it self-serving? Is my humility part of a crusade or is it genuine? Do I have expectations due to my
humility?



Exercise for the day: Be humble just for its own sake.
Bruce
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  • #7,013
  • May 22, 2008 9:05am May 22, 2008 9:05am
I think USD/JPY will stay firm after Wall Street came down heavily for two days. I think in short term USD/JPY will stay around 104.05 and 103.62 as Support and resistance.
  • #7,014
  • May 22, 2008 9:07am May 22, 2008 9:07am
Quoting Ron3226
I feel that we are going up today, for how much longer I'm not sure. Probably a retrace coming up here, but I don't see this as a reason to go short.

Just my 2 pips.

I'll ride the trend up until it doesn't benefit me anymore. Perhaps we trade different time frames. I probably don't hold on to my trades quite as long as you do.

I don't know.

I'm probably just crazy, but it's working for me.

I don't want to take away from what you are trying to teach, so I'll just go hang out in the lounge.

Peace Out.

Ron.

Please Stay with US... You have FREE WILL. You could be right in your call. As long as your style works for you then stick with it. We are here to share and learn. You probably have things to teach me as well. Look At it FLY UP so you seem to have made the right call so far.

By using STOPS the Worst damage is $800 US and you are able to short from a higher level with ALL your Capital intact except for the $800 Loss.

Keep in MIND the Dow is only UP 41 now and EUR/JPY is pushing USD/JPY OVER 104.00 for the moment at a HIGH of 104.046

With Respect

Bruce
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  • #7,015
  • May 22, 2008 9:08am May 22, 2008 9:08am
Since the retrace didn't come, and we are shooting straight up, I think at the end of this run that the main trend (down) will continue.

Good trading wishes to all.

Ron.
  • #7,016
  • May 22, 2008 9:15am May 22, 2008 9:15am
Quoting ehcydotcom
I think USD/JPY will stay firm after Wall Street came down heavily for two days. I think in short term USD/JPY will stay around 104.05 and 103.62 as Support and resistance.

I am very Happy to See NEW Posters on this thread called USD/JPY.

Please KEEP in MIND that the MARKET is ALWAYS right short term until it is not. Then it reverses and the STUBBORN ones and their EGO'S say NO WAY and there goes their capital.

Count on it unless you use Risk Management in your trading. Also Be Aware if It Cannot BREAK 104.00 and STAY ABOVE IT...

It is ONLY 10:13 AM Lots Yet To Unfold including Existing Home Sales Tomorrow at 8:30 AM

Keep Looking Ahead and be aware of things that can keep changing PERCEPTIONS back to the REALITY... The USA is in a RECESSION now.

Oil is Over $130 Housing is still dropping. The Banks are in Big Trouble. The FED is DEAD in my terms as what do they have left in their Bag Of Tricks...

The Dow is UNDER 13,000

Bruce
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  • #7,017
  • May 22, 2008 9:23am May 22, 2008 9:23am
first short @ 103.87
second short @ 104.02

if any, third short @ 104.17

stop loss @ 104.35

Lets see how it goes.

Good luck everyone!
  • #7,018
  • May 22, 2008 9:23am May 22, 2008 9:23am
http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...20821620080522


Bruce
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  • #7,019
  • May 22, 2008 9:26am May 22, 2008 9:26am
That was a nice bull run, I doubt it has much more steam left in it.

Caution if you are looking long.

Ron.
  • #7,020
  • May 22, 2008 9:27am May 22, 2008 9:27am
SPOTTECHNICAL SIGNIFICANCERECOMMENDATIONPOSITION105.70(M)Trend High May 2 Flat On A Failure FLAT at 103.57
open22/05/08time13:35targetstop105.55(M)Daily High May 7 Sell Failure, Buy Break 105.10(M)Daily High May 16 Sell A Failure 104.50(M)Hrly Dn TL Fm 105.45 Sell A Failure 103.9914:20 GMT THU 22 MAY 102.95(M)Hourly Support May 22 Expect Stalling 102.60(S)May 9, 12 Low Buy Bounce/Sell Break 102.15(M)Ichimoku Cloud Top Cover On A Bounce 101.90(M)38.2% 95.75/105.70 Take Profit, Sell Break Strategy:[email protected]

Prices came within 13 pips of retesting the key daily swing lows at 102.60 overnight and then retraced 38.2% of the slide from Monday"s high to today"s low at 103.45 and we sold that failure, but were stopped out above there. Dailies are mixed now and some may be thinking double-bottom after today"s low neared the 102.60 lows. (RD) 14:07 GMT


From My Information Source

Thank You

Bruce

P.S. High so FAR is 104.088

Dow UP 45
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