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EURUSD

  • #9,681
  • May 22, 2008 3:27am May 22, 2008 3:27am
im out, hit my sl at 1.5745, not getting any better...
  • #9,682
  • May 22, 2008 3:36am May 22, 2008 3:36am
Quoting Subdude
Not trying to discredit you, but the unemployment claims report is out in less than 4 hours - you don't think a positive surprise could send the dollar higher???
anything is possible, but i will bet on the currencies with the higher interest rates
  • #9,683
  • May 22, 2008 3:48am May 22, 2008 3:48am
Quoting Clouds
anything is possible, but i will bet on the currencies with the higher interest rates
The yen has been rallying against the dollar since around 124 - the US interest rate is still 4 times higher than that of Japan, even after all the rate cuts.
  • #9,684
  • May 22, 2008 3:55am May 22, 2008 3:55am
Quoting Subdude
The yen has been rallying against the dollar since around 124 - the US interest rate is still 4 times higher than that of Japan, even after all the rate cuts.
The yen it was priced in. It's been .5 for 10 years, maybe longer? See what happens when the US has interest .5, and watch the eur/usd be 25.00
  • #9,685
  • May 22, 2008 4:03am May 22, 2008 4:03am
Short at 5750 after terrible news for the EU
  • #9,686
  • May 22, 2008 4:05am May 22, 2008 4:05am
Quoting Dabek FX
Short at 5750 after terrible news for the EU
may i knw wats yo target? thnx....
  • #9,687
  • May 22, 2008 4:08am May 22, 2008 4:08am
Quoting Clouds
The yen it was priced in. It's been .5 for 10 years, maybe longer? See what happens when the US has interest .5, and watch the eur/usd be 25.00
Not sure what your point is. I gave you an example of a currency with a huge swap rate disadvantage over another currency having been in a long term uptrend against it. The euro has also been in the uptrend against the dollar WAY longer than there has been a swap rate advantage to holding it long, in fact this advantage has only existed for about six months.

Clearly, higher interest rates are NOT the (only) reason to go all in.
  • #9,688
  • May 22, 2008 4:09am May 22, 2008 4:09am
Quoting bustahoodz
may i knw wats yo target? thnx....
Since I dont have much time to trade Im just going for 20 pips down... As far as a real target price 5700 looks reasonable.
  • #9,689
  • May 22, 2008 4:13am May 22, 2008 4:13am
The hell is pushing this EUR up
  • #9,690
  • May 22, 2008 4:18am May 22, 2008 4:18am
oil through the fucking roof just checked it
Crude Oil134.71+1.54
  • #9,691
  • May 22, 2008 4:25am May 22, 2008 4:25am
closed 5767 -17 pips
  • #9,692
  • May 22, 2008 4:25am May 22, 2008 4:25am
Well like I was saying a couple days ago, the second time it came up strong above 56, not the friday fun, was the time to launch upwards strong. Should come back up strong and at least hit near below 59 until the end of the week.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #9,693
  • May 22, 2008 4:29am May 22, 2008 4:29am
Quoting Subdude
Not sure what your point is. I gave you an example of a currency with a huge swap rate disadvantage over another currency having been in a long term uptrend against it. The euro has also been in the uptrend against the dollar WAY longer than there has been a swap rate advantage to holding it long, in fact this advantage has only existed for about six months.

Clearly, higher interest rates are NOT the (only) reason to go all in.
The usd/jpy was in an uptrend from 105 to 123, and at 123 the us lowered rates last year. It doesn't have a 'huge swap rate advantage' it has one of the lowest swap rate advantages. Take usd/jpy, it WAS 8:1 advantage, and after lowering rates, it is 4:1 advantage, so they don't think it's worth 123 anymore, so now it's worth 103 or whatever, but it's going to still increase from here, it is just now at a level at what it's supposed to be worth. Interest rates have a huge affect on the trend of a currency. You say 4:1 is huge, what about aud/jpy with 16:1. The other reasons currencies trend, are when banks from say, europe, don't trust the us government , ect.
  • #9,694
  • May 22, 2008 4:29am May 22, 2008 4:29am
Quoting Jurrasic
Well like I was saying a couple days ago, the second time it came up strong above 56, not the friday fun, was the time to launch upwards strong. Should come back up strong and at least hit near below 59 until the end of the week.
But with such a decline in industrial orders, the near term should have dipped no?
  • #9,695
  • May 22, 2008 4:36am May 22, 2008 4:36am
Quoting Dabek FX
But with such a decline in industrial orders, the near term should have dipped no?
Investors don't have to much faith in the U.S currency lately. Besides something else to consider. The weak dollar allows for a cheaper oil purchase since the dollar is the dominating oil purchasing currency.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #9,696
  • May 22, 2008 4:39am May 22, 2008 4:39am
Quoting Dabek FX
But with such a decline in industrial orders, the near term should have dipped no?
It has dipped, that's the short term news effect. Now it's back to technicals and those clearly show a big bounce and trend reversal according to which the market should be expecting at least near 59, though it doesn't have to happen all at once but by the end of the week sounds reasonable to me. Just look at the daily chart.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #9,697
  • May 22, 2008 4:44am May 22, 2008 4:44am
Quoting Jurrasic
It has dipped, that's the short term news effect. Now it's back to technicals and those clearly show a big bounce and trend reversal according to which the market should be expecting at least near 59, though it doesn't have to happen all at once but by the end of the week sounds reasonable to me. Just look at the daily chart.
I believe he was talking about an immediate dip on that last negative news announcement that never happened.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #9,698
  • May 22, 2008 4:52am May 22, 2008 4:52am
Quoting Jurrasic
Just look at the daily chart.
Having said that.. you know it'll be interesting to see if it goes through 820 area.. If you connect the previous 2 lows on daily and the previous high with this current resistance area right above 582 you get a nice downwards channel.. but for now that's somewhat a wild guess I think.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #9,699
  • May 22, 2008 6:32am May 22, 2008 6:32am
it all depends on this today
14:30 USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif Unemployment Claims
15:00 USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
16:00 USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...impact_low.gif House Price Index m/m
16:30 USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...impact_low.gif Natural Gas Storage
  • #9,700
  • May 22, 2008 6:46am May 22, 2008 6:46am
my signal indicator says sell Eu now at 1.5750 ,
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