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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,381
  • May 21, 2008 3:11pm May 21, 2008 3:11pm
Quoting sirguy1
Can we get a honest short term long term analysis from someone please , maybe some charts and some reasoning behind your forcast. Would be most appreciated?
RBA news resulted in a breakout above overhead TL resistance dating back to Nov '07. If you weren't already long, this was a buy signal, as I noted yesterday.
http://i26.tinypic.com/29zvsd1.gif

Subsequent price activity today has resulted in a breakout above the weekly/monthly overhead TL resistance dating back to Feb '04.
http://i26.tinypic.com/wtueyq.gif


As long as price remains above these two levels, it is a buy. No further USD, RBA, RSI, earthquake or whatever nonsense technical analysis needed.
  • #2,382
  • May 21, 2008 3:19pm May 21, 2008 3:19pm
Quoting pearsonfx
but I will explain also why you should short now and not later
How's that gartley pattern working out for you?
  • #2,383
  • May 21, 2008 4:33pm May 21, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting Trader KGB
How's that gartley pattern working out for you?
Just fine thank you....Im waiting on the weekly close

Yes it spiked above the trendline, but as I already pointed out...on a weekly timescale a little overshoot could almost be expected. A close below .9558 this week and your longs are doomed. A lot depends on this week. Its make or break for the dollar....I think the rest of this week trading will be interesting. There is still plenty of time to move down a little.

I really don't care which way it goes, but the breakout south should it happen will be much more worthwhile then waiting a month for it to reach .99 then fall

Did I mention no matter what happens, it shouldn't reach parity? That is wishful thinking
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,384
  • May 21, 2008 4:52pm May 21, 2008 4:52pm
I had stated earlier this week I expected the AUD/USD to remain in range 'til the end of the week, but of course once I make a prediction, the universe tries to debunk it

Anyway, I was aware of the RBA minutes coming out, but I was genuinely surprised at the positive reaction. There is nothing in those minutes that gives me a big hard one for a long AUD/USD, so I suspect that the move higher is not on 'bullish' sentiment in the notes.

If traders out there think that this latest RBA statement is actually 'bullish' it only illustrates to me that people are even MORE DESPERATE to get out of the USD than I had envisioned and will use any excuse they can to get out of it.

Frankly, I'll be surprised if by the end of the week, this one week 350 pip move doesn't sell down from some profit taking.
  • #2,385
  • May 21, 2008 5:08pm May 21, 2008 5:08pm
Quoting Trader KGB
I wouldn't bet a dime on an RSI divergence, or any technical divergence for that matter. Most of the time they're completely useless. Daily RSI has been divergent since late Feb, weekly RSI divergent since last July. Not exactly great signals..
I hadn't seen that daily divergence, good point. I just love me some RSI . In an uptrend we should be looking at the bottom support line anyways and that is still fully intact making higher lows.
"A goal without a plan is just a wish."
  • #2,386
  • May 21, 2008 5:28pm May 21, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting norrismp
I hadn't seen that daily divergence, good point. I just love me some RSI . In an uptrend we should be looking at the bottom support line anyways and that is still fully intact making higher lows.
Precisely. Leave the top calling to Jamie Saettele at DailyFX, who last month called a multi-year top (some 300 pips ago), although that's an improvement from his brazen call last summer for a return to .5000!!
  • #2,387
  • May 21, 2008 8:56pm May 21, 2008 8:56pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Precisely. Leave the top calling to Jamie Saettele at DailyFX, who last month called a multi-year top (some 300 pips ago), although that's an improvement from his brazen call last summer for a return to .5000!!
lol... if that guy gives a 'hint', DO THE OPPOSITE!!! it works for me..
(btw, i'm wondering if it will break 0.9650's and keep going up )
... /$ -> LONG
  • #2,388
  • May 22, 2008 1:11am May 22, 2008 1:11am
What The Heck Happened A Few Hours Ago To Cause This Drop?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HOURLY AN.GIF Size: 34 KB
  • #2,389
  • May 22, 2008 1:12am May 22, 2008 1:12am
Quoting southernmind
What The Heck Happened A Few Hours Ago To Cause This Drop?
I bought NZD, that's why
  • #2,390
  • May 22, 2008 1:16am May 22, 2008 1:16am
Quoting southernmind
What The Heck Happened A Few Hours Ago To Cause This Drop?
I think it was the tax cut announcement by the New Zealand government. The tax cut will raise inflation possibilities and make it more difficult, if not impossible, for bank of New Zealand to cut interest rate, hence, the strengthening of kiwi.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,391
  • May 22, 2008 1:19am May 22, 2008 1:19am
Quoting scyang
I think it was the tax cut announcement by the New Zealand government. The tax cut will raise inflation possibilities and make it more difficult, if not impossible, for bank of New Zealand to cut interest rate, hence, the strengthening of kiwi.
Parity anyone? It's time the NZD be treated equal.
  • #2,392
  • May 22, 2008 2:21am May 22, 2008 2:21am
Don't want to speak too soon, but it looks like aussie is finally ready to take a breather against $. Hopefully, oil is soon to follow... risk aversion, here we go!
  • #2,393
  • May 22, 2008 3:37am May 22, 2008 3:37am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
I thought typically in risk averse times investors park their money in gold. Additionally I also read commodities rally when there's a weaker dollar. I was looking at the Dollar Index (I'd post up the chart if I had a feed for it), and it looks like the dollar is losing strength. Gold is also steadily rising, couple that with rumors of raising interest rates in the future, and risk aversion in the markets right now, I thought A/U is a logical long play and should keep on hitting all time highs against the dollar. Is this logic flawed?
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #2,394
  • May 22, 2008 4:29pm May 22, 2008 4:29pm
Quoting FxChi
I thought typically in risk averse times investors park their money in gold. Additionally I also read commodities rally when there's a weaker dollar. I was looking at the Dollar Index (I'd post up the chart if I had a feed for it), and it looks like the dollar is losing strength. Gold is also steadily rising, couple that with rumors of raising interest rates in the future, and risk aversion in the markets right now, I thought A/U is a logical long play and should keep on hitting all time highs against the dollar. Is this logic flawed?
Nope, not at all.
  • #2,395
  • May 22, 2008 6:40pm May 22, 2008 6:40pm
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
Quoting TheTopBloke
Nope, not at all.
Well what the fuck happened last night with the drop. LOL. Pardon my language. I was loaded up on longs and she drops on me. I unloaded some earlier for a loss and still have some open from .9625 that i'm trying to unload at .9615 until she figures out the next move. Although I'd like to start loading up longs from .9500 as that looks like very strong support.

I think the drop could've been from Gold which I can't get a read on right now. Not sure if the move last night was a simple retracement before proceeding or if she's going to test 906 - 888 levels. If 918 gives way we'll know our answer.

Thanks for letting me know I'm not crazy about my logic on longs. I'm new to A/U so trying to learn its behavior. Any tips is much appreciated. So far I notice early evening EST (around 6 EST - 8 EST) there's a small bull run. Not sure if it's coincidence as its only been this week that i've been watching, but please let me know any hints/tricks/tips. By all means send me a PM if you're a private person. Look forward to seeing some quality Ozzy Ozzy Ozzzeeee posts!!
"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #2,396
  • May 23, 2008 1:15am May 23, 2008 1:15am
Quoting FxChi
Well what the fuck happened last night with the drop. LOL. Pardon my language. I was loaded up on longs and she drops on me. I unloaded some earlier for a loss and still have some open from .9625 that i'm trying to unload at .9615 until she figures out the next move. Although I'd like to start loading up longs from .9500 as that looks like very strong support.
Use CME (GLOBEX) forex futures to hedge your positions - it's a great way to cap your loss while making pips both ways!
  • #2,397
  • May 23, 2008 1:17am May 23, 2008 1:17am
Quoting FxChi
I thought typically in risk averse times investors park their money in gold. Additionally I also read commodities rally when there's a weaker dollar. I was looking at the Dollar Index (I'd post up the chart if I had a feed for it), and it looks like the dollar is losing strength. Gold is also steadily rising, couple that with rumors of raising interest rates in the future, and risk aversion in the markets right now, I thought A/U is a logical long play and should keep on hitting all time highs against the dollar. Is this logic flawed?
It will go up as long as there is roll over interest to be had. When the US raises interest rates, the market will price it in, and it will go down.
  • #2,398
  • May 29, 2008 1:55am May 29, 2008 1:55am
The AUD is bouncing all over the place - any technical analysis?

Is it some people are pulling out positions and some people are buying in with carry trades?
  • #2,399
  • May 29, 2008 2:14am May 29, 2008 2:14am
I made 60 pips in last 24 hour (A/U). Bay (1) and sell (2) between 0.9590 and 0.9610
  • #2,400
  • May 29, 2008 6:46am May 29, 2008 6:46am
http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/1...dddddddpp9.gif

There is no doubt abot the direction.
I am trading AU long since few months (on 30min time frame) and i took profits and wate for the next long signal.
The difference between the interest rates is very big.
So, i think for the next few weeks we will still see AU going up.



zeuzera
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