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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,921
  • May 21, 2008 10:46am May 21, 2008 10:46am
Great stuff here.

Been short since mid last week.
105.07, 104.80, 104.55 and now 103.69

Just waiting for 102.40 area for TP.

I think she'll make 102.2 area, 100.0 retrace on the daily, as Daily is now below the Gann.

As long as the 4H keeps closing below the 5sma and shows no sign of Divergences, I'll let em run.

Warren, you think there will be Intervention before it gets as low as last time ?

maybe if she hits 100 ?

kj
  • #6,922
  • May 21, 2008 10:57am May 21, 2008 10:57am
Quoting Islander
June crude oil just made a new high at 131.9, pulling the Dow down to its daily S1 at 12728, allowing me to take a nice profit on my GJ short - thanks Warren for alerting me to the "oil link" - I've added it to my Dow and Swissy links for trading GJ......http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Hi Islander

What is the link to oil? Thanks and good trades for all
  • #6,923
  • May 21, 2008 11:07am May 21, 2008 11:07am
Quoting Warren Forex
If you do not focus on what you need to do then you will fail. Fortunately I can do both but I still need to focus on earning a living for myself. I do this of my own FREE WILL. I ask nhothing of anyone here in return. All I asked in the beginning was for those interested in winning at FX to INVEST their time and energy in doing it the right way.

Best regards


Bruce

I was only testing you..
I agree with you and all you say makes sense to me. Every trader finds his/her own holy grail at some point.

I still don't live from it yet but I am very determined to do it in 2 years more and try also to learn everyday. But I try to make it simple. Where I'm putting all my efforts now is in the money management. and scaling in technique. with a daily / weekly trend in mind. I have increased a 1,000€ demo account to 10,800€ in the process in 1 year being very conservative. The other demo accounts with more agressive techniques have been blown. The real account follows the conservative way.
meanwhile I try to learn scalping also but it is very difficult.
  • #6,924
  • May 21, 2008 11:08am May 21, 2008 11:08am
Is it possible for you to read Warren Forex's post...all of 'em...he has explained exactly how he uses bollinger bands. Good luck


Quoting sikacek
yes I did.. also rod all your reccomended website, but I asked you, how to trade Bolinger's Bang.. so it's possible get the answer?? THX
  • #6,925
  • May 21, 2008 11:11am May 21, 2008 11:11am
Quoting Warren Forex
Helping just one person like yourself makes it all worthwhile to me. In this life we get what we put into it. By helping others we help ourself because it means we care.

Greed and Ego and Fear destroy though Ego can be good if it stays under control.

The second that you think you know it all then you know nothing and are doomed for a big fall. It never fails to happen.

As long as I know there is a higher entity than I that gave me life. The rest is up to me through my own FREE WILL.

G-D Bless

Bruce
Thanks BRUCE!

I have made constant $$ ever since i started to listen to your analysis.
OIL,GOLD,BONDS,and DOW are keys to USD/YEN. Along with the technical analysis, its working great for me!!
I've enjoying watching the USD/YEN go up simply because the temporary good data while i short it as i know it will eventually move back down as I understand the REAL situation of the US economy through the articles that you have provided.

THANK YOU and please teach us more!!
  • #6,926
  • May 21, 2008 11:51am May 21, 2008 11:51am
Quoting naOki
Thanks BRUCE!

I have made constant $$ ever since i started to listen to your analysis.
OIL,GOLD,BONDS,and DOW are keys to USD/YEN. Along with the technical analysis, its working great for me!!
I've enjoying watching the USD/YEN go up simply because the temporary good data while i short it as i know it will eventually move back down as I understand the REAL situation of the US economy through the articles that you have provided.

THANK YOU and please teach us more!!
I really appreciate your post to me. We can all be winners without it taking anything away from each of us. Winning is an attitude and a way of life.

You are already a winner in my book. The financial rewards will follow and then you will have it all.

G-D Bless You and your loved ones.

I am now off for lunch. Watch the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 PM on the past minutes of their last cut. Watch what the Dow does in the last hour. Watch how the market reacts to the news. Watch it all and scale in your positions. Know where the Resistance and Support is.

Try to NEVER trade more than 20 to 25% of your capital. I sometimes go a bit over 20% if I think the USD/JPY has really topped. You can be wrong or events can intervene so use Stops though I sometimes do not enter them at the time of my trade. If you leave open positions overnight then you should use the STOP just in case.

Be Aware of upcoming news events like jobless claims in the USA tomorrow at 8:30 AM...

Read WWW.JSMINESET.COM each day at the end of your day to stay on top of news and see it without the spin.

Use Technicals for the best entry and exit. Do not overtrade. When you have big wins sometimes it is good to take a break and enjoy it. It is easy to get overconfident. Watch the cross trades like EUR/JPY which do affect USD/JPY at times.

Have a trade plan. Use Risk Management and most important of all, be calm, have fun and see the future ahead of you.
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  • #6,927
  • May 21, 2008 1:48pm May 21, 2008 1:48pm
May 21, 2008 2:46 PM

Dow down 211 Oil up $4.63 Gold Up $12.1 and US Dollar Index is down.

Voila USD/JPY now at 103.04 Bid

Bruce
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  • #6,928
  • May 21, 2008 1:57pm May 21, 2008 1:57pm
103.5 TO 101.86
  • #6,929
  • May 21, 2008 2:09pm May 21, 2008 2:09pm
However the damage is done and now we let the dust settle. Oil at $133.54 is not helpful to the economy but good for Canada so USD/CAD is now at 98.45 and Gold is Way Up as Inflation is here.

Good Work, FED.... Thanks for the MESS so we can make some profits.

Use The Bounce to get a good entry point. Be patient and be almost sure and watch carefully the last hour for a big sell off or some intervention. Also watch how USD/JPY reacts as some decoupling can happen short term. Also be aware of EUR/JPY as it heads up to 163.00 again. EUR/USD almost at 1.5800 again.

Do Not Forget a SURPRISE could come UP tomorrow at 8:30 AM when New Jobless Claims could go either way. A Number BELOW Consensus will give The Dow reason to rally.

Bruce
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  • #6,930
  • Edited 2:33pm May 21, 2008 2:32pm | Edited 2:33pm
Please Read Me...


http://www.dailypfennig.com/



I've explained these cross trades before, but for the new readers, let's review... Class, get your #2 pencils out... Currencies are traded in "pairs". You are always shorting one currency and going long another currency... As U.S. investors, your base currency is dollars, so when you buy euros or yen, you are shorting the dollar and buying euros or yen. But, U.S. investors aren't the only players in this arena... You have investors around the world that have a different base currency... So you end up with "cross" trades ... Currencies that cross each other in this arena... Clear as mud? Sorry... This is how I know to explain it.

So... Euros, for instance, could gain in value due to people buying yen... On the crosses... And so on...

Alrighty then... I'm sure this will all sink in as you sink your teeth into that Honey Bun this morning!




Bruce
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  • #6,931
  • Edited 2:41pm May 21, 2008 2:37pm | Edited 2:41pm
Quoting Fx-fe Jaco
103.5 TO 101.86
I would just like to point out that there is a previous support point @ 102.60, and I believe that the yen will bounce off this support, perhaps retrace for a bit and then continue downwards to your target of 101.86.

Just something to consider. The news didn't seem that bad that we'd go on a rocket ship to the bottom.

That's my 2 pips, right or wrong.

p.s. mmmm honey buns.

Good luck traders.

Ron
  • #6,932
  • May 21, 2008 2:49pm May 21, 2008 2:49pm
Thank for the data

It's two last weeks support. Mi first TP is here. I hope that level next week.
  • #6,933
  • May 21, 2008 2:57pm May 21, 2008 2:57pm
Quoting Warren Forex
However the damage is done and now we let the dust settle. Oil at $133.54 is not helpful to the economy but good for Canada so USD/CAD is now at 98.45 and Gold is Way Up as Inflation is here.

Good Work, FED.... Thanks for the MESS so we can make some profits.

Use The Bounce to get a good entry point. Be patient and be almost sure and watch carefully the last hour for a big sell off or some intervention. Also watch how USD/JPY reacts as some decoupling can happen short term. Also be aware of EUR/JPY as it heads up to 163.00 again. EUR/USD almost at 1.5800 again.

Do Not Forget a SURPRISE could come UP tomorrow at 8:30 AM when New Jobless Claims could go either way. A Number BELOW Consensus will give The Dow reason to rally.

Bruce
With the oil prices and the hidden bullish divergence, I went long on the CAD.
Just sitting at BE at the moment, but should play out for some pips I hope.

I'll TP my shorts (105.07, 104.80, 104.55 and now 103.69) at 102.60 (57) as that is a 100.0 retrace.

Watch for a rejection bounce and then re up to see if we make it to 100.80 (161.8).

Thanks again for all your insight Bruce.

I've been far more profitable on UJ and CAD than when I was butchering my account UP and Down on the GJ.

kj
  • #6,934
  • May 21, 2008 3:01pm May 21, 2008 3:01pm
tommorow 101.80 ?(38,2 fibo level) - im still holding my short from 104
"..buy gossips, sell facts.."
  • #6,935
  • May 21, 2008 3:04pm May 21, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting kujo17
With the oil prices and the hidden bullish divergence, I went long on the CAD.
Just sitting at BE at the moment, but should play out for some pips I hope.

I'll TP my shorts (105.07, 104.80, 104.55 and now 103.69) at 102.60 (57) as that is a 100.0 retrace.

Watch for a rejection bounce and then re up to see if we make it to 100.80 (161.8).

Thanks again for all your insight Bruce.

I've been far more profitable on UJ and CAD than when I was butchering my account UP and Down on the GJ.

kj

I just stick to USD/JPY as Dow closes down 229 or so....

I like the correlation between Dow and USD/JPY

I saw USD/CAD breaking through 100.00 but sometimes other factors get in the way like BOC suggesting they will cut rates again.

I guess it's the Bernake Influence...

CAD is a Oil and Gold Currency and as long as US Recession does not harm Canada too much I can see USD/CAD heading to 95.00 BUT a harder currency to trade than USD/JPY so I stick with that.

Bruce

P.S. This was a great day for input and teamwork among us all. Keep up the good work and good harmony.
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  • #6,936
  • May 21, 2008 4:18pm May 21, 2008 4:18pm
I am still short from 104.90
  • #6,937
  • May 21, 2008 4:32pm May 21, 2008 4:32pm
Punched out my CAD Long at BE. Don't think that would end up reversing.
Added another small short at 103.0 for the ride to 101.43 area.

Great couple of days on the UJ so far.

Enjoying the knowledge here as well.
  • #6,938
  • May 21, 2008 4:56pm May 21, 2008 4:56pm
Got stopped out at 103.62 on my UJ short last night so switched to Nzd/Jpy looking to reenter a short above 103 for 101.90
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,939
  • May 21, 2008 5:09pm May 21, 2008 5:09pm
Quoting FxGladiator
U/J is at the bottom of a very strong upward trend line. Need a confirmed sell momentum and consistently closing below the trendline on 4 hour chart to sell it all the way to 101.55 and then more to the south. Once the downward momentum is confirmed by price action, we can sell at every pullback.
I posted the above comment yesterday at 1:25 pm E.T. Well, That's what I have been doing, selling at every pullback for intraday profits.

P.S: Bruce, thanks for all the info on fundamentals. So far so good
Never Trade without a defined risk, never, never, never.
  • #6,940
  • May 21, 2008 5:13pm May 21, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting FxGladiator
I posted the above comment yesterday at 1:25 pm E.T. Well, That's what I have been doing, selling at every pullback for intraday profits.

P.S: Bruce, thanks for all the info on fundamentals. So far so good
Bingo, where is the guy who was long to 104.50?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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