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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,341
  • May 20, 2008 7:03am May 20, 2008 7:03am
Quoting MaZae
remember this pair is tricky! it won't handle the pressure and will go down

I would just like to say that divergence of the bearish persuasion now exists....
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,342
  • May 20, 2008 7:06am May 20, 2008 7:06am
But possible rate hike, commodities price and carry yield - I can hardly imagine a long term bear on this pair...
  • #2,343
  • May 20, 2008 7:10am May 20, 2008 7:10am
Quoting JanPoko
But possible rate hike, commodities price and carry yield - I can hardly imagine a long term bear on this pair...
There really is no concrete evidence that a rate hike will actually happen. They just talked about it. Don't think anybody here is looking at the long term. We are mostly day traders.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,344
  • May 20, 2008 8:15am May 20, 2008 8:15am
Quoting scyang
There really is no concrete evidence that a rate hike will actually happen. They just talked about it. Don't think anybody here is looking at the long term. We are mostly day traders.
Fine, still, even you can hardly ignore carry traders, making the price...
  • #2,345
  • May 20, 2008 8:40am May 20, 2008 8:40am
Quoting Trader KGB
Why are so many fighting the trend here? 20-year breakout + hawkish RBA + USD selling off everywhere else = BUY not short!
I just want to express reasons why you should be short on a shorter timescale as well as long term

1. There is a bearish Gartley pattern visible on the 4 hour/daily chart....there is a little bit of cushion to go up, but I will explain also why you should short now and not later

2. I don't need to tell many this and its quite obvious, AUD/USD is extremely overbought (represents a very possible sell opportunity)

3. Bearish Divergence is CLEARLY visible on the 4 hour charts, Weekly, and Monthly charts (this covers short term and longterm)

4. Completion of a three drives pattern, the outcome of course is a reversal in the opposite direction of the three drives...the three drives can be seen on the weekly charts

5. You talk about the selling of the dollar as a reason to buy the AUD....I am going to show you exactly why this has no reason being part of a bullish outlook. Lets look back three months when the dollar hit all time lows (this trumps even your '20-year breakout' this my friend, is ALL-TIME. So Three months ago if you look at pretty much any pair that has the USD as its base or secondary pair....USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD just to name a few......what happened? We saw moves of 1000 pips at least on each pair against the dollar, makes sense right, dollar getting weaker? right?

Well, now lets go back in time three months ago and look at our friend AUD/USD....there was no such 1000 pip rise. in fact, it rose about 200 pips over the three weeks that the dollar collapsed in. Now for you hawkish and bullish people out there....isn't this a contradiction? If we have a bullish Australian Dollar, and a Bearish USD....we should have seen the AUD/USD skyrocket and hit parity back then right? it opened that week at .9222 but three weeks later it closed at .9434 thats only 212 pips gained. Where if this pair were going to hit parity it would have done so then and it would be at 1.0222 at least.

Well what does this mean? Well for all you bullish people out there it means that the AUD/USD is not as strong as it is being made out to be.....but rather it is only being carried on by artificial strength. The bearish signs are adding up on all indicators on all timeframes, more traders are going to be starting to go short on this pair....the optimistic outlook of reaching parity was long ago crushed and you should recognize that.

As more bearish signs begin to surface, and confirmations as well...more traders will be turning their positions. Aud/Usd is a bubble that is about to be popped.

When it does pop and a major sell off begins.....it should not come as a surprise to anyone. Again these are just my thoughts, think of them what you will. I hope you use them to your advantage.

Zack
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,346
  • May 20, 2008 9:15am May 20, 2008 9:15am
Nice analysis, PearsonFx,

perhaps you should also take into account that three months back there were no 127,50 per barrel. This is something that, I am afraid, rather nullifies your assumptions. This is quite a new situation and dollar have yet to suffer much much more from it, believe me.
  • #2,347
  • May 20, 2008 10:07am May 20, 2008 10:07am
Quoting JanPoko
Nice analysis, PearsonFx,

perhaps you should also take into account that three months back there were no 127,50 per barrel. This is something that, I am afraid, rather nullifies your assumptions. This is quite a new situation and dollar have yet to suffer much much more from it, believe me.
Thats all fine and dandy....and the US might suffer some more from it....but did you read the part about last time the US suffered the AUD/USD pair was hardly effected.

I don't trade news, I could hardly care what the RBA minutes contained. What I can tell you is that there is no doubt a rising wedge on the weekly charts of the AUD/USD pair. Now on such a grandeur scale 50 pips can mean next to nothing and a seemingly breakout past the .9558 mark can easily be accounted for. What I can tell you is that from a technical standpoint you are looking at extremely oversold, bearish divergence, at the top of a rising wedge, the list goes on for the bears.

IF price were to breakout here....it would be short-lived....its hard to sustain a new bullish leg of price action when you start it in extremely overbought territory.

As for Oil being at 127, yea sure its never been there before....its also at 129 right now.....the effects that oil and dollar weakening had on the euro were pretty extreme too...but even the mighty bullish Euro could not sustain those levels for an extended period of time. I also glanced at the Oil chart....seems that it too is in a BEARISH three drives pattern as well....hmmm I wonder what that would do for AUD strength.

My opinions are my own, just know that you have been warned, this bullish trend will not last. If you would like me to post some charts I would be glad too. Look for a close below .9558 today.
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,348
  • May 20, 2008 10:41am May 20, 2008 10:41am
Quoting pearsonfx
Thats all fine and dandy....and the US might suffer some more from it....but did you read the part about last time the US suffered the AUD/USD pair was hardly effected.

I don't trade news, I could hardly care what the RBA minutes contained. What I can tell you is that there is no doubt a rising wedge on the weekly charts of the AUD/USD pair. Now on such a grandeur scale 50 pips can mean next to nothing and a seemingly breakout past the .9558 mark can easily be accounted for. What I can tell you is that from a technical standpoint you are looking at extremely oversold, bearish divergence, at the top of a rising wedge, the list goes on for the bears.

IF price were to breakout here....it would be short-lived....its hard to sustain a new bullish leg of price action when you start it in extremely overbought territory.

As for Oil being at 127, yea sure its never been there before....its also at 129 right now.....the effects that oil and dollar weakening had on the euro were pretty extreme too...but even the mighty bullish Euro could not sustain those levels for an extended period of time. I also glanced at the Oil chart....seems that it too is in a BEARISH three drives pattern as well....hmmm I wonder what that would do for AUD strength.

My opinions are my own, just know that you have been warned, this bullish trend will not last. If you would like me to post some charts I would be glad too. Look for a close below .9558 today.
AUDUSD has been at this elevated level for a couple of days now, with gold, oil, commodities, euro, gbp supporting it. Are you in short for AUDUSD? What is your expected timeframe for the downward move? On what TF do you see the three drives pattern? Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,349
  • May 20, 2008 11:45am May 20, 2008 11:45am
Quoting pearsonfx
I just want to express reasons why you should be short on a shorter timescale as well as long term

1. There is a bearish Gartley pattern visible on the 4 hour/daily chart....there is a little bit of cushion to go up, but I will explain also why you should short now and not later

2. I don't need to tell many this and its quite obvious, AUD/USD is extremely overbought (represents a very possible sell opportunity)

3. Bearish Divergence is CLEARLY visible on the 4 hour charts, Weekly, and Monthly charts (this covers short term and longterm)

4. Completion of a three drives pattern, the outcome of course is a reversal in the opposite direction of the three drives...the three drives can be seen on the weekly charts

5. You talk about the selling of the dollar as a reason to buy the AUD....I am going to show you exactly why this has no reason being part of a bullish outlook. Lets look back three months when the dollar hit all time lows (this trumps even your '20-year breakout' this my friend, is ALL-TIME. So Three months ago if you look at pretty much any pair that has the USD as its base or secondary pair....USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD just to name a few......what happened? We saw moves of 1000 pips at least on each pair against the dollar, makes sense right, dollar getting weaker? right?

Well, now lets go back in time three months ago and look at our friend AUD/USD....there was no such 1000 pip rise. in fact, it rose about 200 pips over the three weeks that the dollar collapsed in. Now for you hawkish and bullish people out there....isn't this a contradiction? If we have a bullish Australian Dollar, and a Bearish USD....we should have seen the AUD/USD skyrocket and hit parity back then right? it opened that week at .9222 but three weeks later it closed at .9434 thats only 212 pips gained. Where if this pair were going to hit parity it would have done so then and it would be at 1.0222 at least.

Well what does this mean? Well for all you bullish people out there it means that the AUD/USD is not as strong as it is being made out to be.....but rather it is only being carried on by artificial strength. The bearish signs are adding up on all indicators on all timeframes, more traders are going to be starting to go short on this pair....the optimistic outlook of reaching parity was long ago crushed and you should recognize that.

As more bearish signs begin to surface, and confirmations as well...more traders will be turning their positions. Aud/Usd is a bubble that is about to be popped.

When it does pop and a major sell off begins.....it should not come as a surprise to anyone. Again these are just my thoughts, think of them what you will. I hope you use them to your advantage.

Zack
Nicely said.
I'm short at 9580 and 9611.

Lets see where she falls.

9412 would be 61.8 retrace
9450 would be 50.0
  • #2,350
  • May 20, 2008 12:03pm May 20, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting kujo17
Nicely said.
I'm short at 9580 and 9611.

Lets see where she falls.

9412 would be 61.8 retrace
9450 would be 50.0
agree with u
  • #2,351
  • May 20, 2008 12:29pm May 20, 2008 12:29pm
I see this than i know what that means south!!!
Composite Indicator -- Signal -- -- Strength -- -- Direction --Trend Spotter (TM)BuyAverageStrengthening Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional IndicatorBuyWeakStrengthening10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo ChannelBuyWeakStrengthening20 Day Moving Average vs PriceBuyWeakStrengthening20 - 50 Day MACD OscillatorBuyAverageStrengthening20 Day Bollinger BandsBuyMinimumStrengthening Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel IndexBuyWeakStrongest50 Day Moving Average vs PriceBuyWeakStrengthening20 - 100 Day MACD OscillatorBuyStrongWeakening50 Day Parabolic Time/PriceBuyAverageStrengthening Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel IndexBuyWeakStrongest100 Day Moving Average vs PriceBuyStrongStrengthening50 - 100 Day MACD OscillatorBuyStrongWeakest Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy Overall Average: 100% - Buy

Quoting pearsonfx
I just want to express reasons why you should be short on a shorter timescale as well as long term

1. There is a bearish Gartley pattern visible on the 4 hour/daily chart....there is a little bit of cushion to go up, but I will explain also why you should short now and not later

2. I don't need to tell many this and its quite obvious, AUD/USD is extremely overbought (represents a very possible sell opportunity)

3. Bearish Divergence is CLEARLY visible on the 4 hour charts, Weekly, and Monthly charts (this covers short term and longterm)

4. Completion of a three drives pattern, the outcome of course is a reversal in the opposite direction of the three drives...the three drives can be seen on the weekly charts

5. You talk about the selling of the dollar as a reason to buy the AUD....I am going to show you exactly why this has no reason being part of a bullish outlook. Lets look back three months when the dollar hit all time lows (this trumps even your '20-year breakout' this my friend, is ALL-TIME. So Three months ago if you look at pretty much any pair that has the USD as its base or secondary pair....USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD just to name a few......what happened? We saw moves of 1000 pips at least on each pair against the dollar, makes sense right, dollar getting weaker? right?

Well, now lets go back in time three months ago and look at our friend AUD/USD....there was no such 1000 pip rise. in fact, it rose about 200 pips over the three weeks that the dollar collapsed in. Now for you hawkish and bullish people out there....isn't this a contradiction? If we have a bullish Australian Dollar, and a Bearish USD....we should have seen the AUD/USD skyrocket and hit parity back then right? it opened that week at .9222 but three weeks later it closed at .9434 thats only 212 pips gained. Where if this pair were going to hit parity it would have done so then and it would be at 1.0222 at least.

Well what does this mean? Well for all you bullish people out there it means that the AUD/USD is not as strong as it is being made out to be.....but rather it is only being carried on by artificial strength. The bearish signs are adding up on all indicators on all timeframes, more traders are going to be starting to go short on this pair....the optimistic outlook of reaching parity was long ago crushed and you should recognize that.

As more bearish signs begin to surface, and confirmations as well...more traders will be turning their positions. Aud/Usd is a bubble that is about to be popped.

When it does pop and a major sell off begins.....it should not come as a surprise to anyone. Again these are just my thoughts, think of them what you will. I hope you use them to your advantage.

Zack
  • #2,352
  • May 20, 2008 12:32pm May 20, 2008 12:32pm
Aud/usd was able to break new highs, yet aud/jpy is still stuck below 100. Maybe it will break 100 soon if aud keeps up the momentum. On another note, gbp/aud and eur/aud seem to be in a strong down trend, however this current downtrend may be coming to an end since eur and gbp are becoming stronger. I was wondering anyones thoughts about these pairs or long-term plans with any of these pairs, (long term being a week or two).
  • #2,353
  • May 20, 2008 12:34pm May 20, 2008 12:34pm
short since .9589 i mean sorry typo
  • #2,354
  • May 20, 2008 2:02pm May 20, 2008 2:02pm
What I find really hard to believe is that there's virtually NO evidence of carry trade unwinding taking place, as one might expect when the Dow takes a triple digit plunge. Financial stocks are being pounded, and yet the high yielders like aussie and kiwi are still in the stratosphere... I wonder what will happen if there's another 150 point selloff in U.S. equities tomorrow. As for me, I'm gonna try and get out of my aussie short at a profit before the big euro news releases tonight - it seems the euro is poised to give up the recent gains.
  • #2,355
  • May 20, 2008 2:04pm May 20, 2008 2:04pm
US traders are pretty lethargic today.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,356
  • May 20, 2008 2:08pm May 20, 2008 2:08pm
Quoting pearsonfx
2. I don't need to tell many this and its quite obvious, AUD/USD is extremely overbought (represents a very possible sell opportunity)
I've been hearing such claims since it broke 8000 early last year.. Overbought based upon what metric? RSI, for instance, is in the 60s on the daily, weekly, and monthly..
  • #2,357
  • May 20, 2008 2:10pm May 20, 2008 2:10pm
Welcome to parity.

FWIW the Chinese earthquake imvho will buoy commodities for some time to come. Steel, Copper, Aluminum, etc will all be needed to rebuild. 20 mill people have to be repatriated eventually. Aussie will benefit. I also think 100.51 is going to be breached topside on the AJ invalidating the triple top. Just my .02 based on fundamentals I pointed out.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,358
  • May 20, 2008 2:22pm May 20, 2008 2:22pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Welcome to parity.
Not so fast.

Quote
FWIW the Chinese earthquake imvho will buoy commodities for some time to come. Steel, Copper, Aluminum, etc will all be needed to rebuild. 20 mill people have to be repatriated eventually. Aussie will benefit.

While there's merit to this, remember that 20 mil is like 1% of the total population in China; clearly, this is not nearly as devastating to that country as it would be if it happened to Canada.
  • #2,359
  • May 20, 2008 2:29pm May 20, 2008 2:29pm
Quoting Subdude
Not so fast.



While there's merit to this, remember that 20 mil is like 1% of the total population in China; clearly, this is not nearly as devastating to that country as it would be if it happened to Canada.
Its not the news, its how people react to it
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,360
  • May 20, 2008 4:33pm May 20, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Why are so many fighting the trend here? 20-year breakout + hawkish RBA + USD selling off everywhere else = BUY not short!
hehehe. Let 'em short it I could use the other side of it!
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