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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,301
  • May 19, 2008 4:59pm May 19, 2008 4:59pm
I am keeping my short open from yesterday with a S/L at .9606. Tomorrow bar should determine trend direction but I ma expecting a drop to support over the next few days at .9340 area. Today's bar appears to be bear bias.

Also, we have a very bearish bar of NU today as well. This is a predominant pattern that has been forming and I am also expecting NU down to form a new recent low around .7460.

I have been wrong before

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"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #2,302
  • May 19, 2008 6:02pm May 19, 2008 6:02pm
Australia Reserve Bank's Board May Minutes due out tonight. I wonder what will happen.
  • #2,303
  • May 19, 2008 6:05pm May 19, 2008 6:05pm
There's not much downside here. Just looks like a lack of buyers, most likely because the buyers are waiting for the dip. But there's no sellers either, so where do you see the dip?

It looks to me like the big move will be to the upside later this week, it will be a tight range until.
  • #2,304
  • May 19, 2008 8:46pm May 19, 2008 8:46pm
Umm, isn't AU at the all time high right now - 0.9573? Probably not the best time to go short as this might shoot up to the 9650 area tonight. I'm going to find out as I have a trailing 10 pip stop to get in short.
  • #2,305
  • May 19, 2008 8:54pm May 19, 2008 8:54pm
This might go to 97/98 the way it's looking and with M&A talk, plus Gold looking supportive.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,306
  • May 19, 2008 8:55pm May 19, 2008 8:55pm
Quoting Subdude
Umm, isn't AU at the all time high right now - 0.9573? Probably not the best time to go short as this might shoot up to the 9650 area tonight. I'm going to find out as I have a trailing 10 pip stop to get in short.
My charts go back to '78 (IBFX) and the high back then was 1.1900 so no we are no where near an all time high.
Que
  • #2,307
  • May 19, 2008 9:05pm May 19, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting Que
My charts go back to '78 (IBFX) and the high back then was 1.1900 so no we are no where near an all time high.
I stand corrected then. Still, for all intents and purposes this is likely as high as most readers of the forum (and retail traders) have seen in their lifetimes.

But as Euro's recent downfall shows, tough inflation talk and favorable swap rates alone are insufficient to prop up a currency forever.
  • #2,308
  • May 19, 2008 9:05pm May 19, 2008 9:05pm
Quoting Que
My charts go back to '78 (IBFX) and the high back then was 1.1900 so no we are no where near an all time high.
sure
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  • #2,309
  • May 19, 2008 9:15pm May 19, 2008 9:15pm
Quoting benssol
sure
So you posted proof of what I said, then said sure with a daydreamer?

Not exactly sure what that means...
Que
  • #2,310
  • May 19, 2008 9:17pm May 19, 2008 9:17pm
wow...a big move and then nothing. Just a bunch of news hounds playing the release. It could be that if this stagnates, these same buyers will become sellers and we could see that resistence hold.

I have been wrong before however......
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #2,311
  • May 19, 2008 9:17pm May 19, 2008 9:17pm
my greatest yields i've done are in audusd but i hate this pair anyway!!
it is so tricky.. ...

after the 250 pips rally (aprox) between may/15-18 the "normal" thing (at least since march) that was supposed to happen was a reversal..

lol, wait! RBA minutes are getting hawkish again, this may build a 'three white soldiers' candlestick pattern @ dailies! i think this only will add fuel for a deep deep downturn. i'll just wait until i see a good opportunity to enter short a lil bit higher...

http://www.candlestickshop.com/glossary/#Three%20White%20Soldiers%20(Bullish)
... /$ -> LONG
  • #2,312
  • May 19, 2008 9:20pm May 19, 2008 9:20pm
My short is still active but I do not think for much longer...
Que
  • #2,313
  • May 19, 2008 9:34pm May 19, 2008 9:34pm
Quoting Que
So you posted proof of what I said, then said sure with a daydreamer?

Not exactly sure what that means...
LOL
it means nothing
I just playing with the new smilies

  • #2,314
  • May 19, 2008 10:32pm May 19, 2008 10:32pm
Quoting Que
My short is still active but I do not think for much longer...
Where did you get in short? What do you mean not much longer? You are looking at trying to get out? This thing looks stuck.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,315
  • May 19, 2008 10:37pm May 19, 2008 10:37pm
Quoting scyang
Where did you get in short? What do you mean not much longer? You are looking at trying to get out? This thing looks stuck.
No, I stick to my stratagy very strongly.

I was hoping for a "stuck" but I was within 5 pips of my stop. I figured unless my luck changed then It would be over soon. It did hit my SL a little while ago. But there was not way I was going to prematurly close it to save 5 pips when I can let it go and possibly get back to BE.

My stop was .9590

Looks like it barely hit it but thats how it goes. Was a risky trade to begin with. I was going against a very strong carry trade in hopes that we hit a top. Looks like my sell was at .9550.

Should have noticed the Flag patern forming and taken my +30 when I had it honestly.
Que
  • #2,316
  • May 19, 2008 10:52pm May 19, 2008 10:52pm
Quoting Que
No, I stick to my stratagy very strongly.

My stop was .9590

Looks like it barely hit it but thats how it goes. Was a risky trade to begin with. I was going against a very strong carry trade in hopes that we hit a top. Looks like my sell was at .9550.
lol, Que.. my destiny will be like yours.. im @ 0.9558, so let's pray to our BEAR GODS! ummm......
... /$ -> LONG
  • #2,317
  • May 19, 2008 11:25pm May 19, 2008 11:25pm
Quoting MaZae
lol, Que.. my destiny will be like yours.. im @ 0.9558, so let's pray to our BEAR GODS! ummm......
Anything can happen, but it hit my stop to the pip
Que
  • #2,318
  • May 19, 2008 11:30pm May 19, 2008 11:30pm
My trailing sell stop entry was hit @ 0.9576... normally, I avoid using trailing stops as a way to get in, but AU just seemed way overbought. It looks like it's cooling off a bit here.
  • #2,319
  • May 19, 2008 11:42pm May 19, 2008 11:42pm
Quoting Subdude
My trailing sell stop entry was hit @ 0.9576... normally, I avoid using trailing stops as a way to get in, but AU just seemed way overbought. It looks like it's cooling off a bit here.
How tight was your trailing? Didn't see it go much lower than 76.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,320
  • May 19, 2008 11:47pm May 19, 2008 11:47pm
Quoting scyang
How tight was your trailing? Didn't see it go much lower than 76.
10 pips. I actually had a combo of two stop-limits sitting just before the news release... and to my embarassment, I accidentally got the order sides wrong, i.e. I had 2 stop-limits like this:

BUY: stop 0.9515 limit 0.9510
SELL: stop 0.9530 limit 0.9535

Before I realized the mistake, the sell order got hit... so now I'm just averaging down. This is starting to look pretty grim.
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