Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

Quoting Fx_Genius

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I also think the comfort level for E$ is much lower than we currently are, as their interest rates. They want 2% growth not over.


ECB wants it lower, they are catching up to US with economic issues, but not as bad yet.

Apr 15, 2008 7:59am

Apr 15, 2008 8:08am


The E$ was at 1.58 land when the above quotes were posted.
I think 1.6 was the trigger for the E$ to start dropping.
If my chart is close at all, the E$ should get to 1.37 around Nov '09.
Just my thoughts... Comments?

PS. If the trend has truly changed, how long of a time line will confirm?

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Quoting tamster

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Found this interesting article on another site - could explain recent price moves in EU and USD:

00:56 NEWS: Dealers Say Recent FX Moves, USD Buys On G7 100-Day Rule Tokyo, May 16. The talk in Tokyo today revolves around the G7 so-called 100-day rule which might explain recent currency movements and divergence from up-to-now established trends and correlations. The Reuters Japanese language service put out a piece on this yesterday evening. The gist is that US funds, facing more stringent fiscal year or half-year reporting deadlines in June have been paring down risk assets, including short USD positions. Dealers in the know suggest that the positions in question are not limited to USD shorts but those taken in stock and bond markets, and that these positions adjustments are resulting in, among other things, recent USD moves higher. Paring of long, medium and short- term carry trades look to be taking place as well ahead of the end-June deadline. According to the Reuters piece, the fact that such moves are taking place this month, ahead of the deadline, makes very good sense and is confirmation of the effects of this 100-day rule. The rule itself is one of four recommendations made at the April G7, and involves having to set risk asset designations within 100-days, thereby the "100-day rule". -- ([email protected])

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Quoting Aad

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So does this supposed 100-day rule always start on May 16th or is there another starting fixed date or will it constantly change every 100 days?...

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Quoting Fx_Genius

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Maybe this will help...

Apr 11, 2008 7:16pm
G7 gives banks 100 days to start revealing losses
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The Group of Seven warned Friday the global economic outlook was weakening and said banks should adopt steps to 'fully and promptly' reveal their risk exposure due to the current financial market turmoil within 100 days.

The world economy 'continues to face a difficult period ... (and) near-term economic prospects have weakened,' G7 finance ministers and central bank governors said in a statement after their meeting here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=80916 (http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=80916)

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Quoting priceaction

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Finally some upward movement worth talking about at the pub tonight! Currently 1.5570. How long it lasts remains to be seen ...of course.

What I find attractive with this particular bull run is the fact that we are seeing a convincing break of the 4hr 200ema (although there is no close above it yet). To me, this has been a key moment in EURUSD bull moves. See Feb 08, Jan 08 and the 2007 moves on the chart on the right here at the EUR/USD thread if you are interested: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2000021&postcount=9227

My position from 1.54 is going well.
I shall add to it at 1.56.

Rob

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Quoting aamarx

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Hi Rob

Thanks for your recent posts they have been informative and helpful, I'm pretty new to the Jacko method so please correct me if I have made a mistake. I also took the long at 1.5400 using a 100 pip trailing stop and was stopped out a few days ago with profit. Did you use a larger stop to keep you in the trade? Or do you have your own method you use along with Jackos? I am confused as to how you are still in the trade.

Thanks

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Quoting aamarx

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Hi rob

Thanks for your very quick reply. Just out of curiosity, how would you have managed the trade if it had gone against you?

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Quoting jacko

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Hi Archer,.........

...........
I am a Trend Trader

1. buy/ sell ONLY in the direction of the major trend and
2. buy/sell on dips.(Use support lines to guide you as to price...also "round" numbers ... I also use the 50% Fib ratio..)
3. bank your profits

..................................
Anti-Hedge Method

That strategy is:
1. you put a trade on and you put a Trailing Stop Loss of 100 pips (this has been raised from 50 pips due to increased volatility in EUR/USD pair)
2. the market goes against you (horrors....I was wwwwwrong !! )
3. let the market continue...it will probably go say another 30 - 100 pips past your stop...who knows ???
4. WHEN IT MOVES 50 PIPS BEYOND YOUR STOP LOSS, PUT AN ORDER IN AT THE EXACT SAME FIGURE AS YOUR STOP LOSS (if you were originally "long" then place a "long" order) This ensures that when the market comes back, as it invariably does, you have a DEFINITE order in place to put you back in the market where you were originally...and you are now in the same direction as the market is moving..
5. FINALLY, the market comes back around and starts to head in the opposite direction
6. The market picks you back up on its new direction
7. The A-H trade also has a 100 pip Trailing Stop Loss. It is also a one-time trade. There is no A-H on an A-H trade


I hope that that clarifies the situation

.

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Quoting Syafi

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3- what you do if the price move just 10 pip-20 pip past your stop then go back to your original direction you were in.
4-A stop order to get in the trade the on the same direction but why not on better price
7-no A-H on a A-H trade mean, the second attempt it hit SL then leave it there and dont attempt to re enter again if price come back ?

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Quoting shadowninja

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3/ given that you've read the rules, what do you think you should do?
4/ given that you've read the rules, what do you think you should do?
7/ correct.

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Quoting Syafi

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I am not thinking, I am asking for a clear answer, so there shall be no doubt or misunderstanding..

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Quoting priceaction

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Hi aamarx,

On this occasion I did not follow Jacko's 100 TSL rule and I made a discretionary decision to focus on maintaining what I believed was a good entry (1.54), as opposed to grabbing some quick short-term profit. I wasn't prepared to risk much as price had already moved up about 168 pips and then right back down. It's been a volatile time.

So allowing for a slight spike down through the key level of 1.54, I placed my stop at 1.5390 and I risked 10 pips in doing do. As you can see, I survived by the skin of my teeth and am now still long from my 1.54 entry.

This is not a good example of 'following the rules', but this time, my discretionary call paid off. I have however reminded myself of Jacko's rules and will use them to mange my trade as they have served him well and I want to benefit from them in the same way as Jacko has. I was just very keen to maintain a good entry.

Rob

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Quoting priceaction

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1. 1.54 long was stopped out by 100 TSL at 1.5532 (I didn’t like to see it go but I need to stick to Jacko's rules and this time I have )
2. 132 pips of profit banked
3. A-H buy-stop pending at 1.5532

Upon reflection, I think I became too passionate about my 1.54 entry (tut tut ...slap). Jacko's whole system with its A-H strategy doesn't require me to worry about that so I should have just let it go first time round. Less stress too when I think about it. But we live and learn don't we. Let me no longer try and be smarter than the system which has already proven itself.

In summary ...a good lesson learned, profits banked and A-H trade pending.

Rob

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Quoting cologg

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Hi Rob,

Just to let you know that there is no AH on a winning trade.

They are only for losing trades, and even then it's only once. I.e. you lose and place the AH when the criteria have been met, if the AH triggers and then loses, that's it - look for a new entry.

Cheers
Colin.

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