DislikedI also think the comfort level for E$ is much lower than we currently are, as their interest rates. They want 2% growth not over.
ECB wants it lower, they are catching up to US with economic issues, but not as bad yet.
Apr 15, 2008 7:59am
Apr 15, 2008 8:08am
The E$ was at 1.58 land when the above quotes were posted.
I think 1.6 was the trigger for the E$ to start dropping.
If my chart is close at all, the E$ should get to 1.37 around Nov '09.
Just my thoughts... Comments?
PS. If the trend has truly changed, how long of a time line will confirm?Ignored
00:56 NEWS: Dealers Say Recent FX Moves, USD Buys On G7 100-Day Rule Tokyo, May 16. The talk in Tokyo today revolves around the G7 so-called 100-day rule which might explain recent currency movements and divergence from up-to-now established trends and correlations. The Reuters Japanese language service put out a piece on this yesterday evening. The gist is that US funds, facing more stringent fiscal year or half-year reporting deadlines in June have been paring down risk assets, including short USD positions. Dealers in the know suggest that the positions in question are not limited to USD shorts but those taken in stock and bond markets, and that these positions adjustments are resulting in, among other things, recent USD moves higher. Paring of long, medium and short- term carry trades look to be taking place as well ahead of the end-June deadline. According to the Reuters piece, the fact that such moves are taking place this month, ahead of the deadline, makes very good sense and is confirmation of the effects of this 100-day rule. The rule itself is one of four recommendations made at the April G7, and involves having to set risk asset designations within 100-days, thereby the "100-day rule". -- ([email protected])