Aussie Pairs

Based on upper support, I decided to take a short position with a 50 Pip S/L and see where she ends up tomorrow.

Many traders buy AUd when Gold rises as AU is a major producer of gold. I agree, I dont think it is a good correlation just as commodity exports are not a good correlation to support such crazy high's in the AUD as there is more to the Australian economy than just commodities. It's just that commodities are strong and the rest of the australian economy is weak.

I think the real turn will come in June/July when we see more data come out of Australia. I also think we'll start to see better data out of the US over the coming months too. It won't be great but what we'll see is the US slowly pulling out of it's downturn and Australia starting to feel the wake of the US downturn. Both economies will be equally slow (consumer side) with AU showing signs of slowing more while the US picks up. The UN is predicting a slowing in the world economy and this will hurt AU as commodity deman will slow.

I also dont think India and China and many developing countries will be able to put up with such high and continuing to rise commodity prices - continual strong rises are just not sustainable.

One last thing. Look at past trends and the Australian dollar drops 10%+ when it does change direction. I think this time it could be even harder as this rise has been so great. So much of this rise has been due to carry trades and it could leave a lot of carry traders hurt badly - especially the ones that have just bought in.

You can also check out news.google.com and search on commodity and australian dollar and check out past news repots and analysis going back several years. I found major banks predicting the AU was going to be at .68 cents at end of 2006. Basically so many predictions from the major economists and banks was completely wrong and a lot of their predictions of parity now will likely go the same way - wrong.

interesting past article: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...tm?chan=search

I know we have all said that big bank analysts cannot be trusted and news pieces aren't accurate, but for what it's worth, here it is. See what you think.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ygU&refer=home

I am in position just like you guys.

Yep bubble talk.

Check this out: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1210...lead_story_lsc

The more I study the AUD and commodity prices, we're in a bubble.

Well hope the bubble bursts soon since I am in short. Don't want this thing to go up to parity before it starts to come down. Not looking to hold the position long term.

Until the USD significantly strengthens we're going to continue to see high commodity prices.

im agree with sell AUDUSD
but a close above 1.9580 is bad news for bear camp

No idea about where things will go, but at this point, AUDUSD is well below the 0.9580 level you are talking about. So bears are still ok. What is your target level for the downtrend?

im waiting a confirmation but maybe we will see a retest in .9290

A very tight Bollinger Band squeeze on the hourly has shaken things into action.

Roy

Will anyone tell me how aussie remains so solid?
Gold fell, eur/usd fell, gbp/usd fell and why aussi didn't,
Alex

If you look at the day high, it has moved a lot. Just be patient and it will move more for you.

Yes you are right but look gbp/usd, Patience is the answer, my first target is 0.9400 second 0.9350 and third 0.9290, stop +1

Ambitious targets. Nice. But let's let the beast go to .95 first. It has yet to break that.

I think if we break 0.95 there wil be free falling

AUD/JPY might be keeping AUD/USD bid.

13,1k on the Dow helps carries.

i have read in some of news about rumors that china could invest in Australian mining giant BHP Billiton

what do you think will happen after RBA Meeting Minutes?