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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,261
  • May 15, 2008 2:41pm May 15, 2008 2:41pm
AJ just needs some impetus to plummet. I think the RBA's report on Tuesday will provide that.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,262
  • May 16, 2008 4:02pm May 16, 2008 4:02pm
Parity in AU soon, anyone?
  • #2,263
  • May 16, 2008 9:04pm May 16, 2008 9:04pm
Quoting Subdude
Parity in AU soon, anyone?
No way. Australia economy is bad right now.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,264
  • May 17, 2008 6:50am May 17, 2008 6:50am
Is the AUD a bubble?

Here's an interesting blog post link to a book on bubbles. Interesting ideas for traders to ponder: http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry...of_bubbles.php
  • #2,265
  • May 17, 2008 8:17am May 17, 2008 8:17am
Quoting mchael
Is the AUD a bubble?

Here's an interesting blog post link to a book on bubbles. Interesting ideas for traders to ponder: http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry...of_bubbles.php
You are in Australia, so please let me know your most objective view of the state of Australian economy and the possible next move of RBA regarding interest rates.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,266
  • May 17, 2008 10:15am May 17, 2008 10:15am
The only data bullish for AUD lately is the CPI figures, everything else other than a blip in retail sales is down.

Of course the rise in commodities is helping drag the Aussie up and while I'm a commodity bull, right now I'm worried about the current rise in oil and gold.

Two factors to consider though could be equity investments in some leading Aussie companies.
Origin Energy under a $14billion takeover from British firm and more importantly is the rumour of a Chinese group taking a 10% stake in BHP whilch would be about $16billion.
Not to mention what might be happening with Rio Tinto and perhaps an overseas bank to play for St George. So there could be a about $30-50billion seeking AUD.

When AUD broke 80 there was the Rinker takeover going through which was about $18billion adding support.
The trading around 93c and the failed dip below 95c on Friday to me suggests there was a concerted effort to buy.

I still think parity is a possibility but Yen further weakness (USDJPY) to around 110+ will be needed.

Rates IMO will be on hold for the rest of the year and futures are pricing in 2 cuts by next year.

I covered previous shorts a little before 93c and am short again
  • #2,267
  • May 17, 2008 10:51am May 17, 2008 10:51am
Quoting bvbfan
The only data bullish for AUD lately is the CPI figures, everything else other than a blip in retail sales is down.

Of course the rise in commodities is helping drag the Aussie up and while I'm a commodity bull, right now I'm worried about the current rise in oil and gold.

Two factors to consider though could be equity investments in some leading Aussie companies.
Origin Energy under a $14billion takeover from British firm and more importantly is the rumour of a Chinese group taking a 10% stake in BHP whilch would be about $16billion.
Not to mention what might be happening with Rio Tinto and perhaps an overseas bank to play for St George. So there could be a about $30-50billion seeking AUD.

When AUD broke 80 there was the Rinker takeover going through which was about $18billion adding support.
The trading around 93c and the failed dip below 95c on Friday to me suggests there was a concerted effort to buy.

I still think parity is a possibility but Yen further weakness (USDJPY) to around 110+ will be needed.

Rates IMO will be on hold for the rest of the year and futures are pricing in 2 cuts by next year.

I covered previous shorts a little before 93c and am short again

I hope you got in short in the late stage Friday because AUDUSD just kept going on till the very end of Friday. So you still expect the pair to go down a bit Monday even though there are so many take-over interest of Australian companies and the commodity bull run?
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,268
  • May 17, 2008 4:26pm May 17, 2008 4:26pm
Well, the take over / buy out info, was very interesting indeed. -
As Aud Fails to fall in the short term, - (more so it makes new highs, - It's either the take overs... or it's just kicking pretty hard before it keels over. Long term I'm very bearish, but I'll keep with the short term up trend tell it breaks 93c 92c...
My question is time frame, - because if I get all bias about it going down, I'll miss some of those nice charges.. ;=)
It's all Good.....
  • #2,269
  • May 17, 2008 7:37pm May 17, 2008 7:37pm
I wonder how many people realize what happened in Fridays trading session.I fear that this is the end of the line for the Aussie dollar for the next couple of years at least.
We all know the Aussie is very stubborn, and has been bullish since April 2001. Here lies the problem.
In April 2001 the Aussie dollar hit a low of 0.4773.
Add that number to itself ( in other words double it) and you get 0.9546.If you believe in Gann theories as I do, and that price and time will square themselves, we have at that price the perfect square. The previous high of 0.9538 on April 23rd 2008, just did'nt make it, and it's taken 3 weeks to go around the block and come back again.
The new high of 0.9558 cleared this mark by 12 pips.

Your comments welcome

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #2,270
  • May 17, 2008 7:46pm May 17, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting 30XTCi
I wonder how many people realize what happened in Fridays trading session.I fear that this is the end of the line for the Aussie dollar for the next couple of years at least.
We all know the Aussie is very stubborn, and has been bullish since April 2001. Here lies the problem.
In April 2001 the Aussie dollar hit a low of 0.4773.
Add that number to itself ( in other words double it) and you get 0.9546.If you believe in Gann theories as I do, and that price and time will square themselves, we have at that price the perfect square. The previous high of 0.9538 on April 23rd 2008, just did'nt make it, and it's taken 3 weeks to go around the block and come back again.
The new high of 0.9558 cleared this mark by 12 pips.

Your comments welcome

Roy
Hi Roy,

I don't know anything about Gann analysis. Would you please explain based on your analysis, do you expect AUD/USD to go further up or come down next week?
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,271
  • May 17, 2008 9:01pm May 17, 2008 9:01pm
Quoting scyang
Hi Roy,

I don't know anything about Gann analysis. Would you please explain based on your analysis, do you expect AUD/USD to go further up or come down next week?
scyang, trying to pick tops and bottoms can really hurt. Most cycles end with false tops or false bottoms, in this case it could be said that from 0.9538 to 0.9558 is such a sign. Based on that, and the fact that the Aussie has just finished a spectacular vertical ascent, I have a target next week of 0.9360 Low before gaining to 0.9455. Trade at your own risk. I would not personaly take these trades, I prefer to let the dust settle for a couple of days. My long term target is 0.7533 around August 2010.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #2,272
  • May 17, 2008 9:11pm May 17, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting 30XTCi
scyang, trying to pick tops and bottoms can really hurt. Most cycles end with false tops or false bottoms, in this case it could be said that from 0.9538 to 0.9558 is such a sign. Based on that, and the fact that the Aussie has just finished a spectacular vertical ascent, I have a target next week of 0.9360 Low before gaining to 0.9455. Trade at your own risk. I would not personaly take these trades, I prefer to let the dust settle for a couple of days. My long term target is 0.7533 around August 2010.

Roy
I agree with you regarding picking top and bottom. But a trader needs to get in a trade at some point where he thinks it's the most opportune.

If you believe AUD's long term trend is down, would you not get into a short position now?

You said you wouldn't get in the trade now. But do you care to share how you would trade with the expectation you have?

Thanks.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,273
  • May 17, 2008 10:06pm May 17, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting scyang
I agree with you regarding picking top and bottom. But a trader needs to get in a trade at some point where he thinks it's the most opportune.

If you believe AUD's long term trend is down, would you not get into a short position now?

You said you wouldn't get in the trade now. But do you care to share how you would trade with the expectation you have?

Thanks.
scyang,try this. Pull up a Monthly chart Aus/Usd. Go back to Feb 2004, from the high of 0.8008 draw a trend line to last fridays high. You will see that the Aussie has been trying to break that trend line for the last eight months to reach its destiny of 0.9546. Now that it has done that, I cannot see any reason why it would want to go any higher.
It might, but after eight months I am prepared to wait a few more days to see what happens next.My system shows me it does not have the "energy" required to do that, and the only way from here is down.If over the next two weeks you see it's topped and started a decline on the daily, I will be an Aussie Bear for the next few years.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #2,274
  • May 17, 2008 11:05pm May 17, 2008 11:05pm
Quoting 30XTCi
scyang,try this. Pull up a Monthly chart Aus/Usd. Go back to Feb 2004, from the high of 0.8008 draw a trend line to last fridays high. You will see that the Aussie has been trying to break that trend line for the last eight months to reach its destiny of 0.9546. Now that it has done that, I cannot see any reason why it would want to go any higher.
It might, but after eight months I am prepared to wait a few more days to see what happens next.My system shows me it does not have the "energy" required to do that, and the only way from here is down.If over the next two weeks you see it's topped and started a decline on the daily, I will be an Aussie Bear for the next few years.

Roy
Many believe that AUD/USD is closely related to the prices of gold. Gold surged yesterday, bringing up the pair. Australia is a big producer of gold. That theory makes sense. But gold was above $1000 per oz, AUD/USD wasn't at its highest level then. Comments?
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,275
  • May 18, 2008 12:02am May 18, 2008 12:02am
Quoting scyang
Many believe that AUD/USD is closely related to the prices of gold. Gold surged yesterday, bringing up the pair. Australia is a big producer of gold. That theory makes sense. But gold was above $1000 per oz, AUD/USD wasn't at its highest level then. Comments?
They can be closely related. But let me ask you this: Is it possible that it was the Aussie going higher that took the price of gold higher?

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #2,276
  • May 18, 2008 12:04am May 18, 2008 12:04am
Quoting 30XTCi
They can be closely related. But let me ask you this: Is it possible that it was the Aussie going higher that took the price of gold higher?

Roy
That's very possible. Then again, what's the reason for AUD to go high Thursday and Friday? Seemingly all the fundamentals are pointing the other way. Many believe that gold prices lead the uptrend of euro, and that's why euro went up a lot last Friday. Just trying to make some sense out of what happened at the end of last week and hopefully find some clues as to what will happen next week.
Expected the unexpected
  • #2,277
  • May 18, 2008 1:06am May 18, 2008 1:06am
Quoting scyang
That's very possible. Then again, what's the reason for AUD to go high Thursday and Friday? Seemingly all the fundamentals are pointing the other way. Many believe that gold prices lead the uptrend of euro, and that's why euro went up a lot last Friday. Just trying to make some sense out of what happened at the end of last week and hopefully find some clues as to what will happen next week.
scyang, It's all about cycles(waves, rotations, tides, whatever you wish to call it).Without going into much detail I can tell you the Aussie ended a negative cycle at 10AM GMT on May 14, made another low(false bottom I spoke of earlier) 15 hours later, and then started a new positive cycle, which it had been waiting for since the previous high.
The Euro just had to go to 1.5600 There is Big,Big resistence just ahead at 1.5618.

How did you get so many posts in such a short time?

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #2,278
  • May 18, 2008 4:31pm May 18, 2008 4:31pm
Quoting 30XTCi
scyang, trying to pick tops and bottoms can really hurt. Most cycles end with false tops or false bottoms, in this case it could be said that from 0.9538 to 0.9558 is such a sign. Based on that, and the fact that the Aussie has just finished a spectacular vertical ascent, I have a target next week of 0.9360 Low before gaining to 0.9455. Trade at your own risk. I would not personaly take these trades, I prefer to let the dust settle for a couple of days. My long term target is 0.7533 around August 2010.

Roy
Hey Roy,

I want to say that I agree with your Aussie Bear outlook, but would like to add a few comments of my own in regards to the tops.

I entered a short last friday early and it knocked out my stop shortly after so I looked at it a little closer because at first I just took the horizontal resistance of .9538 to be my resistance with a 10 pip buffer to .9548 as my stop.

But if you look on the daily chart, draw a trendline from the peaks at 2/29/2008 and 4/23/2008....you may or may not be surprised as to where the Aud/Usd pair stopped on friday....9558 exactly where that trendline was.

A little look at a couple other indicators will show you that Aud/Usd is extremely overbought, and is looking for a very nice short possibility here to possibly as low as .9320 area this week.

As for what I am looking for, I am short right now, so I am naturally looking for the price to immediately fall when the markets open, but I don't want to be ignorant of the other possibility. This being that, yes price has taken quite some time to achieve this level, and that many are looking for price to reach parity....I do not think that this will happen unless you are talking sometime way down the road such as 2010-2015. The indicators are just piling on to overturn the Aussie's ascent. But as I said we are sitting on the trendline resistance from market close on friday, and as a result of that we didn't bounce right off of it I want to throw a word of caution that the price may attempt to make a new higher high, but the higher it goes be cautioned all the more because in order for the Aud/Usd to climb higher now, it is going to have to maintain a higher rate of climb than normal....you saw this in the last few hours of trading on friday, aside from price attempting to reach new highs, on several hour marks, it was the only pair that 'randomly' had high volatility right before the top of the hour, as a result of this it kept the uptrend alive until it reaches its desired target.

I would be starting to go short on this pair now, but if it starts climbing I would go long with caution, meaning that it could turn around at any point.
My indicators are pointing to short, and if some time in the next few weeks we break .9135(this number applies only to this week) then we will be looking at something very similar that happened to the Eur/Usd once it's daily support trendline was broken a major fall....except the difference here is that Aud/Usd's supporting trendline is on the daily, weekly and monthly charts....the drop will be much more significant and I can easily see a number between .7691-.8113 "shortly" thereafter, shortly being respectful of the monthly timeframes.

Zack
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
  • #2,279
  • May 18, 2008 4:35pm May 18, 2008 4:35pm
I do not believe there is a gold/AUD correlation. There is an illusion, it is not a genuine correlation.
  • #2,280
  • May 18, 2008 4:42pm May 18, 2008 4:42pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
I do not believe there is a gold/AUD correlation. There is an illusion, it is not a genuine correlation.
I will agree with you on this point....MAYBE at times when gold surges, aud appears to surge, but in a broader aspect gold rising can also be correlated with a weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar would give reason to AUD following gold.

In addition, if you simply look at Gold charts versus Aud charts...I personally don't see really any resemblance on the upper TF's 4hour to monthly.....in fact I see Gold more in a bullish pattern and AUD in a bearish pattern....quite the opposite of this correlation.

And last but not least if it is anything, it is a correlation, and we all SHOULD know that correlations are not causation, it is something that may affect it now and then, but cannot be relied on.

Just some thoughts.

Zack
The only sovereign I can allow to rule me is reason.
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