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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,601
  • May 16, 2008 1:57am May 16, 2008 1:57am
ok USD/JPY bouncing think 105 failure is a good time to get out
  • #6,602
  • May 16, 2008 2:31am May 16, 2008 2:31am
Hey Bruce,

I just wanted to say that I enjoy reading your posts. I find them to be informative, and I like your writing style. Maybe it's not for everyone but as you said they could easily just skip past your posts.

P.S. Your call yesterday, that I concurred with was only 10 (extra) pips off.


The call: down to 104.25
actual: down to 104.15

Keep em coming Bruce. I like to hear what you are thinking.

Ron.
  • #6,603
  • May 16, 2008 3:26am May 16, 2008 3:26am
upside limited from here
  • #6,604
  • May 16, 2008 4:28am May 16, 2008 4:28am
Quoting Ron3226
Hey Bruce,

I just wanted to say that I enjoy reading your posts. I find them to be informative, and I like your writing style. Maybe it's not for everyone but as you said they could easily just skip past your posts.

P.S. Your call yesterday, that I concurred with was only 10 (extra) pips off.


The call: down to 104.25
actual: down to 104.15

Keep em coming Bruce. I like to hear what you are thinking.

Ron.
Good Morning

I appreciate your comments. We should all work together to ensure success.
I have a lot of knowledge in forex but that does not mean that each and everyone of you has to see it as a negative. I learn everyday something new concerning forex. We can help each other by sharing our knowledge. I always appreciate intelligent sharing of information. I know I still have much to learn on the technical side. I sometimes wish I had more talent producing charts and drawing trendlines but I have come to release that I do not have the patience or time so others more skilled than I do that anyways. I can contribute on the fundamental side as well as having a sense where the technicals could start to be misleading because of probable news about to be released that again and again change the perceptions back to the realities.

Have a great FX trading day. News out in 1 hour. Oil is up and Dow futures only up 12 and Gold up $8 so we are poised for bad housing numbers as relates to building permits.

Bruce
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  • #6,605
  • May 16, 2008 4:38am May 16, 2008 4:38am
Quoting Warren Forex
Good Morning

I appreciate your comments. We should all work together to ensure success.
I have a lot of knowledge in forex but that does not mean that each and everyone of you has to see it as a negative. I learn everyday something new concerning forex. We can help each other by sharing our knowledge. I always appreciate intelligent sharing of information. I know I still have much to learn on the technical side. I sometimes wish I had more talent producing charts and drawing trendlines but I have come to release that I do not have the patience or time so others more skilled than I do that anyways. I can contribute on the fundamental side as well as having a sense where the technicals could start to be misleading because of probable news about to be released that again and again change the perceptions back to the realities.

Have a great FX trading day. News out in 1 hour. Oil is up and Dow futures only up 12 and Gold up $8 so we are poised for bad housing numbers as relates to building permits.

Bruce

Here is what is on the schedule for news shortly.

16May12:30CAD New Auto Sales %m/m Mar 0.2 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.216May12:30USD Housing Starts k Apr 935 947 940 890 98516May12:30USD Building Permit k Apr 915 927 915 885 93716May14:00USD U of Mich (Prel Idx May 63.0 62.6 62.5 60.0 66.419May05:00JPY Leading ind (re DI Mar n/a n/a n/a

Let us be ready to react to the news. Sometimes you get clues by the reaction to the news. At times when the news does not move the market it can tell you that the currency that you are trading wants to go in a certain direction regardless of the news. That of course has to do with the human pyschology of the present situation and all the different views and bias at the moment.

Bruce
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  • #6,606
  • May 16, 2008 4:47am May 16, 2008 4:47am
May 16, 2008 7:41 AM

Last year one of my friends who managed a Million Dollar plus Commodity fund for associates died. We were about the same age however he had many many years more experience than I in trading. He was an excellent trader and he taught me a lot about human psychology.

He once had printed in a Futures magazine his rules of trading.

For the benefit of all of us I am going to share his rules by posting them here.

Try hard to follow them and you will see great results as long as you get the right knowledge to go along with the rules.

The interesting thing for me about the rules is that I had been following most of them before I had met Fred a few years ago. However to see them in written form enforced my accepting and following them.

Here they are. All feedback will be appreciated.

Bruce

FRED'S RULES:

Fred’s Rules

FINALLY...
I�d like to share with you �My personal parameters for
successful commodity trading,� provided by FS, a
TIF subscriber. I think these are great and they mirror many of
my personal trading rules. Serious traders, consider this a
�keeper.� Here it is in Fred�s words:
With regard to �my� rules, most of them have been around
a lot longer than me and although well-known on the logic
level, are sometimes difficult to implement/execute.
Personally, I think the most important rule is the first one
since all the others are essentially predicated on it. Keep up
the good work with TIF!
1. NEVER trade with funds you cannot afford to lose �
the stress will negatively impact your judgment.
2. NEVER put on a trade without a SIMULTANEOUS
stop loss. Period. This is seminal.
3. NEVER change a stop loss except to move it up/down
as a position moves in your favor. Otherwise just let the stop
loss take you out of the position within predetermined
parameters.
4.When in doubt � for whatever reason (instinct?)
� GET OUT.
5. Avoid overtrading.
6. When trading profitably, get AGGRESSIVE. (We all
have �streaks�!)
7. Never use more than 50% of your equity at one time
and, depending on the size of your account, make certain
that no SINGLE trade uses more than X% of your equity. (I
use 4%.)
8. Never add to a losing position. PERIOD.
9. Forget your EGO because the market is ALWAYS
right � PERIOD.
10. Have patience in winning trades and give them time
to �unfold.�
11. Determine in advance what your TIME parameters
are for a trade, as this will impact both strategy as well as
predetermined RISK parameters.
12. Money management is at least as important as trade
selection and can be MORE important.
13. Trade multiple markets but not more than SEVEN
at a time.


P.S. These are my friends rules which I had been following before I met him a few years ago. These were rules that were published in TIF magazine. I endorse these RULES 100%

Bruce
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  • #6,607
  • May 16, 2008 4:49am May 16, 2008 4:49am
so we are looking for the dollar to weaken after the news?? or has that been fatored in already??? or does it matter how the numbers come out??
  • #6,608
  • Edited 5:03am May 16, 2008 4:53am | Edited 5:03am
Economic Indicators Update

GMTCcyEventsActualConsensusPreviousRevised23:50JPYJapan GDP annualised Q13.30%2.50%3.50%2.60% 23:50 JPY Japan GDP Q1 0.80% 0.60% 0.90% 0.60% 23:50 JPY Japan GDP deflator Y/Y Q1 -1.40% -1.50% -1.30% 4:30 JPY Japan Capacity utilisation Mar 3.50% N/A 1.80% 4:30 JPY Japan Industrial prod'n M/M Mar -3.40% -3.10% -3.10% 4:30 JPY Japan Industrial prod'n Y/Y Mar -0.70% -0.40% -0.40% 5:00 JPY Japan Consumer confidence Apr 35.4 N/A 37 6:00 JPY Japan Machine tools orders Y/Y Apr 0.40% N/A 0.30% 7:15 CHF Swiss Retail sales Y/Y Mar 3.80% 3.30% 9:00 EUR Eurozone Trade balance (euro) Mar 2.5B 0.8 B 12:30 USD U.S. Building permits Apr 0.92M 0.928 M 12:30 USD U.S. Building permits M/M Apr N/A -5.70% 12:30 USD U.S. Housing starts Apr 0.94 M 0.947 M 12:30 USD U.S. Housing starts M/M Apr N/A -11.90% 14:00 USD U.S. U. Michigan survey Prel. May 63 62.6

Here are the main points that I want to make. First sorry It did not line up. Second the news is NOT factored in unless the market does not react to more negative news on housing if it is negative. The odds favor it to be bad but you can never be 100%.

Building permits are KEY. It is a leading indicator as is obvious from the description of the data. Will it be worse than consensus of 920,000 ? Will it be worse than the previous one of 928,000 ?

Housing Starts ! Better than previous one of 947,000 or better than consensus of 940,000 ?

Than Preliminary Michigan FED survey ! Better than previous one of 62.6 or better than consensus of 63 or WORSE than 62 which will be VERY BAD for the market as that will be a all time low I think I read somewhere.

Watch the reactions. Have a Trade plan before the Data is released based on either scenario...Positive or Negative and ALWAYS be ready for surprises.

Good Trading

Bruce
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  • #6,609
  • May 16, 2008 5:09am May 16, 2008 5:09am
this could be a wild ride if the housing numbers are better and the survey is worse, might only be good for scalping a few pips. if what i said happens, the big question is where will it all end up???? up or down??? the housing numbers will point to the future, the survey is now.
  • #6,610
  • May 16, 2008 5:13am May 16, 2008 5:13am
The 62.6 printed last month was a 26 year low so if it comes in below consensus of 63 at say 62 or worse than watch out below. Dow will drop and Yen will rise. That number comes out at 10:00 AM. 22 Minutes to Housing Numbers. Be Ready to Rock and Roll. Please keep in mind the first reaction to the news is not always the one that will be in place 15 minutes after the release for many factors that I will explain at a future date so if you get some profits do not be greedy and take some and lock the rest in using a proper stop. Watch for over reactions and knowing the present Resistance and Support Levels you know where to go long or go short. Scale in your positions if you trade a standard account in blocks of 100K.

Do not assume anything. Things change quickly. There is short term intervention at times. Be alert. Be ready. Have a Trade Plan. Have a Exit Strategy. Be Cool, Be Calm, Have Fun and Be A Winner.

Bruce
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  • #6,611
  • May 16, 2008 5:18am May 16, 2008 5:18am
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
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  • #6,612
  • May 16, 2008 5:18am May 16, 2008 5:18am
"Dow will drop and Yen will rise.

So the usd/jpy will drop?...right?
  • #6,613
  • May 16, 2008 5:27am May 16, 2008 5:27am
only if the numbers are bad or worse than last month, poocher
  • #6,614
  • May 16, 2008 5:29am May 16, 2008 5:29am
Quoting Poocher
"Dow will drop and Yen will rise.

So the usd/jpy will drop?...right?

Trading the USD/JPY pair means as it goes towards 104.00 the YEN is getting Stronger. If you were trading a Futures contract now you would be buying a $100,000 US Dollars contract. The price is now for June 2008 95.71 and when Parity is reached at Spot USD/JPY at 100.00 that Contract would be around 100.00 Plus about 35 PIPS or so more for the Future premium of being a Forward Month such as June 2008.

Have I explained it OK ?

Bruce
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  • #6,615
  • May 16, 2008 5:34am May 16, 2008 5:34am
good housing numbers, will 105 be breached or is it going to wait for the survey nukmbers???
  • #6,616
  • May 16, 2008 5:38am May 16, 2008 5:38am
Good housing numbers. All the speculation was based on nothing but speculation without no concrete information. As this market is so complex, nobody can really anticipate what kind surprise it might dish out to us. Many of the speculations earlier on were also wrong.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,617
  • May 16, 2008 5:39am May 16, 2008 5:39am
Quoting Warren Forex
Trading the USD/JPY pair means as it goes towards 104.00 the YEN is getting Stronger. If you were trading a Futures contract now you would be buying a $100,000 US Dollars contract. The price is now for June 2008 95.71 and when Parity is reached at Spot USD/JPY at 100.00 that Contract would be around 100.00 Plus about 35 PIPS or so more for the Future premium of being a Forward Month such as June 2008.

Have I explained it OK ?

Bruce
Yes

Great #'s...are they cookin' the books?
  • #6,618
  • May 16, 2008 5:53am May 16, 2008 5:53am
Please Notice The Reaction To The Numbers... It Did Bounce Up but so far it is still below 105.00

It went up about 25 PIPS on the news.

Watch the patterns now. Look at Resistance Levels. Gold is Way Up. Oil is Way Up. Look at US Dollar Index. USD/CAD is now ay 99.75

Dow Futures ONLY UP 22 now...

The Good News on Housing is being discounted for the moment.

The KEY now is Michigan FED at 10:00 AM

4Cast is actually calling it to be at 60

You can get a free 30 day trial subscription to 4Cast. It is my most IMPORTANT DATA Service. It does cost about $300 a month but without it I could not trade FX properly.

Be Ready for a 60 or a 65 BUT the ODDS favor a 62 or worse.

Any questions on what happened this morning. The High was 104.957 so 104.95 HELD so far.

I think this experience should be helpful to all FX traders here.

I pointed out what might happen before it did. What to look for. What to be aware of. What the Technicals should be used for. Don't you feel so much more in control than just watching the Technicals go up and down with no real facts given out rather than reactions to NEW DATA.

I hope some of you understand what I am trying to share with you. All of us are EQUAL here so please feel free to ask any question. Even if you think that it may be stupid PLEASE ask it. You will be given an answer.

RESPECT and Teamwork is what it is ALL about.

Now We will test 105.00

I hope it breaks 105.00 (I am FLAT NOW) so I can short right UP to 105.35 before I might change my views.

Always be ready to change your short term views as the Market is Always right.

The Dow Futures are only UP 26 so We have Speculators pushing UP USD/JPY

The KEY NOW is Dow 13,000 and Michigan FED at 10:00 AM

Bruce
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  • #6,619
  • May 16, 2008 5:56am May 16, 2008 5:56am
it is 105.10 now. setting up shorts for the survey numbers??
  • #6,620
  • May 16, 2008 5:57am May 16, 2008 5:57am
Lookes to be headed towards 106.00 by way of 105.71 which was the previous high. Depending on the survey number we could see two way action btw 104/105
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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