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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,581
  • May 15, 2008 1:33pm May 15, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting Poocher
Great chart. I see its from stock charts .com

Any guess what kind of platform and data provider could make the intraday charts referred to?
No Idea

Two Years Down To 2.45% and USD/JPY at 104.77 Bid

Gut Feeling The Dow Closes Down...

Bruce
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  • #6,582
  • May 15, 2008 1:53pm May 15, 2008 1:53pm
Warren Forex,

I haven't said much in here, just lurking a bit to learn FX, hoiping to better my life. Just wanted to say it's great to have someone like you to teach a few things.

JH
  • #6,583
  • May 15, 2008 2:00pm May 15, 2008 2:00pm
Bruce,
Thanks for your helpful post. I am more of a scalper but have really enjoyed your contributions.....
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #6,584
  • May 15, 2008 2:06pm May 15, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting fxstman
Warren Forex,

I haven't said much in here, just lurking a bit to learn FX, hoiping to better my life. Just wanted to say it's great to have someone like you to teach a few things.

JH
Everyone likes to be appreciated. It is Human Nature. It is folks like yourself that motivate me to help as much as I can.

My two committements here is to always tell the TRUTH and do my best to share my knowledge with those that have a healthy open mind.

What you see is what you get with no hidden agenda. I have a style of writing that does get certain posters angry at me.

I do it on purpose to make a point.

Conquer your FEARS, YOUR GREED and have a HEALTHY EGO and that is how you will trade.

That is why in most cases the NEGS are losers in the FX Market.

They are jealous, all knowing, arrogant, think everyone has a hidden agenda, are liars and on and on.

No time to waste trying to change their mind.

One Hour to go for the Dow and it is UP about 50

It might just close up based on the last few minutes movements.

I need to see what News is due out tomorrow. I recall it is housing data which should be very very bad. The NAHB was below consensus of 20 at 19

Have A Great Day. Thank You Again. I am here for you and anyone who really wants to learn.

Please remember to go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM after 5:00 PM EST to catch up on all the major news without the spin.

It should take you about 15 minutes to read the posts of today. You will learn new things.

Bruce

USD/JPY drifts down to 104.69 Bid...
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  • #6,585
  • May 15, 2008 2:40pm May 15, 2008 2:40pm
Quoting Warren Forex
USD/JPY drifts down to 104.69 Bid...
It will bounce back up again ..... that's the beauty of this pair ...
  • #6,586
  • May 15, 2008 3:05pm May 15, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting Schminner
It will bounce back up again ..... that's the beauty of this pair ...

The Dow closes up 93 and the USD/JPY reverses. So maybe this is the moment we have waited for. The Dow is BUMPING 13,000 just 8 Points away.

We are ready for maybe a Humpty Dumpty Moment.

Bruce
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  • #6,587
  • May 15, 2008 3:07pm May 15, 2008 3:07pm
But whose gonna hump and who'll or what'll dump?

Forex Factory consensus seems to be the $yen and gbp/yen will dump.
  • #6,588
  • May 15, 2008 4:33pm May 15, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Copy and Paste

http://bp1.blogger.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/...320/SDSXJY.pngWe may have a Gravestone Doji here on the S&P 500 (SPX).

In a bullish trending market the gravestone illustrates an unsustainable bull rally where price drives up to new highs in trading on day two, but sellers take control by market close.

Although this formation is a moderate to weak in signal strength, it is a warning for longs that the uptrend is losing momentum and bears may retake the market soon.

Since prices have fallen out of the rising Bear Wedge and have now rallied and tested the previous high of the 1420 area, the Gravestone Doji is more relevant than usual. Today's price action must not exceed yesterday's high and preferably result in a down day...

Using the ProsShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS, candle) to represent the inverse of the S&P 500 and plotting the price action against the volatility (VIX, grey area) the positive correlation between the two becomes crystal clear. As VIX falls, the market rises. Conversely, extremely high VIX readings in excess of 30 tend to set bottoms (in the case of SDS, tops). A reading of less than 20 on the VIX now, probably represents extreme complacency for this time of environment. I would therefore expect and look for general equity weakness.

Using the ProsShares Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS, candle) to represent the inverse of the S&P 500 and plotting the price action against the Yen index (XJY, grey area) the positive correlation between the two becomes crystal clear. As XJY falls, the market rises. Conversely, as the Yen strengthens it confirms risk aversion as Yen Carry Trades are unwound and risky assets, such as equities, are sold.

Putting the two together results in a set of nice leading indicators at best and confirmation at worst. For example, not sure if a decline in equities will stick and last a few days turning into a significant correction? Check to see if VIX has risen from a low enough a level to give it reasonable room to run and check to see if the Yen has shown strength and is technically poised to rally further.

If you want to get really crazy, pull them both up on 5, 15, and 60 minute charts and use them as intraday signals.


Related Posts:
Finally, Dollar Smile Theory In Play?
The Yen As A Leading Indicator
Watch The Yen, Carry Trade Unwind
Bulltards Grow Complacent: VIX Drops

For the end of the week as the Dow tries once again to get over 13,000 and on friday there is at 8:30 AM, Housing Stats to shake things up.

Building Permits is a leading indicator...

My sense is that we are at a critical point now.

Recharge your batteries and get ready to Rock and Roll

Bruce

P.S. Time for a 3 hour break to go out and Smell The Roses.
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,589
  • May 15, 2008 4:57pm May 15, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting Warren Forex
P.S. Time for a 3 hour break to go out and Smell The Roses.
When trading forex, who has time to go out and smell anything ???
  • #6,590
  • May 15, 2008 6:09pm May 15, 2008 6:09pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Thanks for pointing out to all of US here that I have a HIDDEN AGENDA.

I am really a Fraud. I have No Idea what I am talking about. I just pretended to be a FX trader. I NEVER made 20% Net a month for my clients. I have NO CLIENTS.
Where in my posting did you read that? You are putting words in my mouth that I never said.

Quote
This is just my way of wasting my time and yours.

Please FORGIVE me. You are the EXPERT know it ALL. Well perhaps it is your EGO not you.

Do you trade Real Funds ? Are You a experienced trader ? How have you done recently ?

Now Do You and your EGO feel better.

You just showed me that you are sharp enough to point out something that has no positive benefits to anyone BUT your OWN SMUG EGO.

Yes, I do trade real money, and yes - I have been trading for some time. I have no illusions about my trading abilities, and have made bad mistakes from which I'm constantly learning. Contrary to what you're accusing me of, I'm absolutely not smug, and never will be even if I do get rich from trading. You need to look up the definition of a word in a dictionary before you attempt using it; I highly doubt you even know what smug means.

Quote
A Very Good Lawyer and Friend younger than me died on Tuesday. He was Cremated earlier today.
My condolences. However, what does it have to do with this thread???

Quote
Who cares what you Think ! I surely do not. I did NOT ask for your input or opinion. You can post here or not POST.

I can say the same about you. Your messages scream: "Listen to me, I'm a GURU!!!!". What makes you think your opinions are more valuable than mine or anyone else's, for that matter? Opinions are like assholes - everyone has one, and they all stink.

Quote
P.S. USD/JPY at 104.90 heading to 104.25 as soon as the Dow starts to DROP. It has NOT even BROKE the HIGH at 105.308 so Any Position Put On Today at 105.30 or BETTER is a WINNER now. I hope that We ALL understand that is Thread on USD/JPY belongs to ALL of US due to the Kind Folks at Forex Factory.

Nice try. The Dow closed almost 100 points up, and UJ never dropped below 104.60.

Quote
Leave Your EGO'S at the Door along with your GUNS...

KISSES and HUGS

PLEASE MAY YOUR SOUL REST IN PEACE, BARRY My Lawyer and Friend

What guns??? Why would you want to give me hugs and kisses? Who cares about your friend? WTF are you even talking about?

I've unsubscribed from this thread - now that you're posting 10 times a day here, the signal/noise ratio is way too low. Oh, and please stop posting with entire phrases capitalized - it makes for a highly annoying read.
  • #6,591
  • May 15, 2008 8:54pm May 15, 2008 8:54pm
Quoting Subdude
Where in my posting did you read that? You are putting words in my mouth that I never said.



Yes, I do trade real money, and yes - I have been trading for some time. I have no illusions about my trading abilities, and have made bad mistakes from which I'm constantly learning. Contrary to what you're accusing me of, I'm absolutely not smug, and never will be even if I do get rich from trading. You need to look up the definition of a word in a dictionary before you attempt using it; I highly doubt you even know what smug means.


My condolences. However, what does it have to do with this thread???



I can say the same about you. Your messages scream: "Listen to me, I'm a GURU!!!!". What makes you think your opinions are more valuable than mine or anyone else's, for that matter? Opinions are like assholes - everyone has one, and they all stink.



Nice try. The Dow closed almost 100 points up, and UJ never dropped below 104.60.



What guns??? Why would you want to give me hugs and kisses? Who cares about your friend? WTF are you even talking about?

I've unsubscribed from this thread - now that you're posting 10 times a day here, the signal/noise ratio is way too low. Oh, and please stop posting with entire phrases capitalized - it makes for a highly annoying read.

My reply to you is very simple. Let us leave personalities and ego's out. We can disagree on forex without it getting personal. I was exagerating to make a point. Of course you did not accuse me of what I amusingly admitted to.

The only point I want to make is let us talk about forex only and leave our personal opinions out about each out.

The only reason that I brought up my friend's death was to make a point about my state of mind and my patience level. If you read your post to me it seems you made it personal so I responded in kind. If you cannot take the heat then as you suggested you would you got out of the kitchen. If folks have complaints about me that is fine. Tell me to my face and I will try to change things if possible.

I only mean well and I only do my best. If you find I make noise just skip past my posts.

Best regards and I apologize to you personally if I said anything to cause you concern. You are able to post here of course and as long as our discussions are civil we can agree to disagree.

On my three suggested positions I was NOT averaging down my loss but scaling in my purchase to get three different prices. All trades were done over 105.00 and it now trades 104.71 so they all would have made money since I was correct in the TREND even with the Dow UP over 90 points.

Have a great night.

Bruce
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  • #6,592
  • May 15, 2008 8:58pm May 15, 2008 8:58pm
Quoting Schminner
When trading forex, who has time to go out and smell anything ???
You need a break so you have the proper outlook. There are always trade opportunities. Give yourself a balance or you will start to overtrade.

These are all proven tactics not developed by me but learned as I have been in this business now for almost 5 years.

Good Evening.

Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,593
  • Edited 9:12pm May 15, 2008 9:09pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting Warren Forex
For the end of the week as the Dow tries once again to get over 13,000 and on friday there is at 8:30 AM, Housing Stats to shake things up.

Building Permits is a leading indicator...

My sense is that we are at a critical point now.

Recharge your batteries and get ready to Rock and Roll

Bruce

P.S. Time for a 3 hour break to go out and Smell The Roses.
Here is a summary of things...

Technically speaking...


Strategy:[email protected] The pairing continues to consolidate below the recent trend high at 105.70, yesterday in a 104.43/105.29 range.

Daily studies show mixed signals, but are on balance positive, while the hourlies are in neutral territory. We have no major bias, so will trade the 104.05/105.70 range or breaks, using tight stops. (ams) 22:39 GMT}


I see housing Data Friday at 8:30 AM being weak. Especially Building permits a leading indicator. Today's NAHB number was 19 below consensus of 20

See the facts and the Dow seems ready to topple being near 13,000 now.

So far tonight the range is 104.559 to 104.95 THE PREVIOUS RESISTANCE a few days ago. Let us watch it behave into the Europe open.

Be ready for 8:30 AM

I see it heading down but I am ready for anything. I will short it near 105.00 with a Change in Trend if it gets above the HIGH of Thursday being 105.31

That's my call and you make yours since it is your responsibility to think for yourself.

Please Read The Articles at WWW.JSMINESET.COM if you are serious about learning about the fundamentals.

Snippet:

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Greed and Geeks have killed many famous names.
CITI Is Beyond Repair
By KAJA WHITEHOUSE
May 13, 2008 -- Banking analyst Meredith Whitney blasted Citigroup's turnaround plan yesterday, saying the financial giant is so deep in a black hole that even renown physicist Stephen Hawking could not help the ailing company.

"We wish [Citi's] management team all the best in their ambitious endeavors, but we fear [it] is past the point of fixing," quipped the Oppenheimer analyst known for her forecast that the company would slash its dividend.

The biting remarks, in the form of a research note to clients, came on the heels of Citi's long-awaited turnaround plan, unveiled by the bank's executive team on Friday.

In a nearly four-hour presentation with investors and analysts, CEO Vikram Pandit said the bank aims to get rid of $400 billion in noncore assets but otherwise rejected calls to boost the stock by spinning off units.

Instead, Pandit outlined plans to further integrate the conglomerate by doing away with overlapping technology systems, among other changes.

More…

Good Night Folks

Bruce
{Promotion Removed}
  • #6,594
  • May 15, 2008 9:49pm May 15, 2008 9:49pm
Quoting Warren Forex
You need a break so you have the proper outlook. There are always trade opportunities. Give yourself a balance or you will start to overtrade.

These are all proven tactics not developed by me but learned as I have been in this business now for almost 5 years.

Good Evening.

Bruce
That's not a bad idea. I'll start my break when the market closes on Friday ...
  • #6,595
  • May 15, 2008 10:06pm May 15, 2008 10:06pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Everyone likes to be appreciated. It is Human Nature. It is folks like yourself that motivate me to help as much as I can.

My two committements here is to always tell the TRUTH and do my best to share my knowledge with those that have a healthy open mind.

What you see is what you get with no hidden agenda. I have a style of writing that does get certain posters angry at me.

I do it on purpose to make a point.

Conquer your FEARS, YOUR GREED and have a HEALTHY EGO and that is how you will trade.

That is why in most cases the NEGS are losers in the FX Market.

They are jealous, all knowing, arrogant, think everyone has a hidden agenda, are liars and on and on.

No time to waste trying to change their mind.

One Hour to go for the Dow and it is UP about 50

It might just close up based on the last few minutes movements.

I need to see what News is due out tomorrow. I recall it is housing data which should be very very bad. The NAHB was below consensus of 20 at 19

Have A Great Day. Thank You Again. I am here for you and anyone who really wants to learn.

Please remember to go to WWW.JSMINESET.COM after 5:00 PM EST to catch up on all the major news without the spin.

It should take you about 15 minutes to read the posts of today. You will learn new things.

Bruce

USD/JPY drifts down to 104.69 Bid...
Thank You Sir, and God Bless.
Look forward to reading more of your posts and learning.
  • #6,596
  • May 16, 2008 2:03am May 16, 2008 2:03am
justloving my trade as i posted the charts here yesterday
already in 50 + profit and looking for more!
next target 104.30
  • #6,597
  • May 16, 2008 3:24am May 16, 2008 3:24am
Quoting netizensurf
justloving my trade as i posted the charts here yesterday
already in 50 + profit and looking for more!
next target 104.30
well.. congratulation!
currently the yen is below your target..
  • #6,598
  • May 16, 2008 3:49am May 16, 2008 3:49am
becoming a very interesting time for the USD/JPY, on one side you have the stock rebound, the vix heading lower and US being supported more then ever, but the techs and lack of progress above 105 making me nervous, most of the crosses are not moving in tandem because of the re-adjustments happening on the majors, Euro/JPY not sitting easily above 163 so trying to see the future going to require a paradigm shift, i think the most likely scenario is the dow to sit above 13000 with a forward looking focus to any bad earning and for the dollar to continue recovery, euro below 1.50 will allow 106/7 to threatened but without this extra support not sure how USD/JPY going to make progress, i will monitor this trade and get out if USD selling comes back again tonight.
  • #6,599
  • May 16, 2008 3:50am May 16, 2008 3:50am
Buy USD/JPY @ 104.22 target 104.49
  • #6,600
  • May 16, 2008 3:52am May 16, 2008 3:52am
Quoting forex_master
Buy USD/JPY @ 104.22 target 104.49
You will be there soon.
Expected the unexpected
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