USD/JPY Discussion

Quoting Warren Forex

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Let us say that this morning you want to trade USD/JPY and you determine in advance that the Maximum HIGH is 105.60. You wait until it hits say 105.10 as it is now and you short (1) position of 100K. It goes up to 105.20 so you short a 2ND position of 100K and then it hits the HIGH of the session at 105.308 so you ADD a 3RD position of 100K at or near 105.30 and then STOP.

So here you have a STOP at 105.35 for the FIRST position of 100K and your SECOND STOP is at 105.45 and your THIRD STOP is at 105.55 so on a worst case SCENARIO you LOSE 75 PIPS or $750 US Dollars on this 3 Position FX trade plan or 1 and 1/2 PERCENT of your total Demo capital.

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Quoting Subdude

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Allow me to be the skeptic here. If I were to trade this example, I would have a combined short position of 300K USD/JPY with avg price of 105.20. Should there be a spike up to 105.55, the entire position becomes a loss, given the stops you're suggesting. If the price only goes as high as 105.45, then two of the three stops are triggered and I've just lost 40000 yen (or roughly $400), and in order to break even, I now need to wait for the price to drop to 104.80. Am I missing something or is the risk/reward ratio here ridiculously high? And if you had close to 700 straight winning trades, does that mean you are almost never wrong in taking positions - if so, why even bother setting stops?

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Quoting Warren Forex

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I enjoy sharing my knowledge with serious people who want to WIN in Life and Forex both one and the same. I give unconditionally and G-D gives me back all that I need both in love and what I need for my daily needs.

That is the real secret of a happy and fullfilling life. There but for the GRACE of G-D go I. "JUdge Not, Less Ye Be Judged" Walk In My Shoes Before You Tell Me What To Do.

I really hope that I can help some of you here on Forex Factory.

The NEGS as I call them will NEVER WIN because they do not have the pyschology to understand EGO, FEAR and GREED.

The Triple Pillars Of Guaranteed Failure.

Good Morning. I must say that most posting here are positive and helpful. Not like the EGOMANIACS at Oanda's FX Forum where I used to post but wasted 90% of my time trying to defend myself against the Sympatico's of the World.

Bruce

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Quoting Warren Forex

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I do this often. Just keep in mind if you get 10 PIPS on each trade playing the range that is like making 10% on your money sometimes in minutes.

$100 Profit on $1000 Risked is 10%

The price is now 105.07 bid. I NEVER TRADE against the TREND short term or longer term. I will wait until it gets to 105.15 or the TOP of the One Minute or Five Minute Bollinger before entering again. Watch what happens at 7:55 AM in many cases.

You cannot trade USD/JPY in the best way without watching CNBC to see the 2 Year Treasury and the 10 Year. The Price of Oil and Gold and the Dow Futures before the 9:30 AM NY open.

The Dow Futures are now UP 30 and Jobless claims at 8:30 AM could change this drastically. Watch the Money Flow from 2 Year to 10 Year.

Is Oil Up or Down ? Is Gold Up or Down ? Watch the US Dollar Index. Free charts at www.ino.com

Read WWW.JSMINESET.COM to get the TRUE FACTS. Go to a great FREE site called WWW.FINANCIALSENSE.COM each day and read the editorials.

Subscribe to 4Cast for the BEST Fundamentals out there. FREE 30 day Trials available.

Get a EDGE with "TRADE THE NEWS" A Live 24 hour feed with Audio Releases on Jobless Claims and TICS so I have a 15 second EDGE on those not using this service.

Better to accumulate $10,000 US to start Trading FX and NEVER trade more than 20% or 2 lots of 100K

I Hope you guys and gals are learning a little bit. If WE really want to make this a GREAT THREAD it would be helpful for the TA experts to post charts from time to time. One Minute, Five Minute and 15 Minute for DAY TRADERS and Scalpers or Range Traders.

Good Morning Again. Let the SUN Shine and STOP to SMELL the ROSES.

You NEVER know how much time you have on this Earth. Enjoy the Journey. It is not where you start from, it is where you finish.

"Today Is The Tomorrow That You Worried About Yesterday And ALL IS WELL"

Bruce

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Quoting byorkFX

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Hi Bruce,

Thank you for sharing your knowledge here. I have a long way to go but it's great to see people here at FF giving back - I hope to one day do the same.

My question is on take profit levels. From one of your previous posts it sounds like you use manual trailing stops. Do you always let your trailing stop get hit to take you out of a trade? If not, how do you identify take profit points? The same post does mention orders for profit targets, but I'm not clear on the details of how those might be determined. I'm more of a technical trader so I tend to look at my charts when looking for take profit points - do you do the same?

Thanks,
Brian

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Quoting Warren Forex

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I enjoy sharing my knowledge with serious people who want to WIN in Life and Forex both one and the same. I give unconditionally and G-D gives me back all that I need both in love and what I need for my daily needs.

That is the real secret of a happy and fullfilling life. There but for the GRACE of G-D go I. "JUdge Not, Less Ye Be Judged" Walk In My Shoes Before You Tell Me What To Do.

I really hope that I can help some of you here on Forex Factory.

The NEGS as I call them will NEVER WIN because they do not have the pyschology to understand EGO, FEAR and GREED.

The Triple Pillars Of Guaranteed Failure.

Good Morning. I must say that most posting here are positive and helpful. Not like the EGOMANIACS at Oanda's FX Forum where I used to post but wasted 90% of my time trying to defend myself against the Sympatico's of the World.

Bruce

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Quoting Warren Forex

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Sometimes on BIG News Days There is ALWAYS the HEADLINE which after 30 minutes of the so called EXPERTS or GUESS PERTS looking at it causes the original reaction to return to where it was before the News or Data Release.

So If I can lock in a profit or take it on a 30 PIP spike up I do so. This is more of a style or feeling or not being greedy issue.

One way is Buy one third on weakness and sell one third of your positions on stength.

Notice the RUN UP NOW just before 8:00 AM...

The NY TRADERS are Having FUN with their Companies Money. I know their pattern so I wait until it hits TOP of Bollinger and SHORT it...

Thanks Guys in NY... It was getting boring. What A GREAT BUSINESS THIS CAN be if you UNDERSTAND THE RULES OF THE GAME...

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Quoting Warren Forex

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Say they get it to 105.20 Put On a SECOND POSITION. If It returns to 105.00 or 105.05 BEFORE V8:30 AM GET OUT unless you want to take a CHANCE on the Jobless Claims Numbers being BAD. Here 4Cast helps you out with their DATA.

Look at the MACD on a One Minute Chart and THE BB and ADD the SAR (Parobolic SAR) GREAT INDICATOR FOR ME ... Watch The DOTS go from UP to DOWN.

Also Look at a Five Minute to See a Different View.

Are WE having FUN as it drops to Bid 105.05 ? YES BABY YES

I AM GOOD.... Calm down, Bruce, Be Humble Please.

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Quoting sikacek

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so are you using same ind as me? (i just added PSAR)

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Quoting Warren Forex

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I use EMA with BB and SAR

Then MACD and RSI and CCI

That is it...

Bruce

P.S. ALSO EMPIRE STATE AS WELL TO CONFUSE things

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