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Aussie Pairs

  • #2,241
  • May 8, 2008 6:35am May 8, 2008 6:35am
Quoting DutchTrader
Its been unable to break that level for some time now.
True. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will go down. I guess, I would think it would go up then vise versa. Interest rates are good right now. However, NZD has good interest rates too, and is going lower. I guess we can only trade when it goes up and when it goes down.
  • #2,242
  • May 8, 2008 6:43am May 8, 2008 6:43am
Quoting Clouds
True. But that doesn't necessarily mean it will go down. I guess, I would think it would go up then vise versa. Interest rates are good right now. However, NZD has good interest rates too, and is going lower. I guess we can only trade when it goes up and when it goes down.
Look at the larger AJ timeframe its been in a downward trend for some time. Only a break above 100.51 breaks the downtrend
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,243
  • May 8, 2008 6:48am May 8, 2008 6:48am
Quoting DutchTrader
Look at the larger AJ timeframe its been in a downward trend for some time. Only a break above 100.51 breaks the downtrend
Weekly it does look down. But monthly it looks up. Weekly looks like chaos, actually. Is that a year-long bull flag on Monthly? Anyway, I'll make sure my S/L gets some profits. I don't expect it to break out anytime soon.
  • #2,244
  • May 8, 2008 6:51am May 8, 2008 6:51am
FWIW Both AJ and UJ are forming monthly pin bars
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,245
  • May 8, 2008 7:12am May 8, 2008 7:12am
Quote
FWIW Both AJ and UJ are forming monthly pin bars
Month just started tho, hard to know where that'll end up. The AJ resistance @ 100 concerns me the most there. The UJ has a weekly trendline that, depending on how you draw it, comes very close to where we are now, and as we dropped below the 104.80 swing it's looking bearish. Combine that with a whippy bounce off the 100 EMA and we probably have enough bearish traders to make things interesting. We've hit the bottom of the daily trendline and are resting on the 21... I'd expect a bounce up, but I'm not sure that bounce will resume the trend, or end it for now.

If it does break down it'll probably drop to 101 or 100. If you look at the monthly you'll notice that March exhaustion tail, the weekly formed that low some time ago but never did a 2nd test. I've been expecting that second test for a while, we might see that. But barring some major USD economic disaster I doubt it'll close below 97. (imo, my .02 pips worth...)
  • #2,246
  • May 8, 2008 7:18am May 8, 2008 7:18am
Quoting Rabid
Month just started tho, hard to know where that'll end up. The AJ resistance @ 100 concerns me the most there. The UJ has a weekly trendline that, depending on how you draw it, comes very close to where we are now, and as we dropped below the 104.80 swing it's looking bearish. Combine that with a whippy bounce off the 100 EMA and we probably have enough bearish traders to make things interesting. We've hit the bottom of the daily trendline and are resting on the 21... I'd expect a bounce up, but I'm not sure that bounce will resume the trend, or end it for now.

If it does break down it'll probably drop to 101 or 100. If you look at the monthly you'll notice that March exhaustion tail, the weekly formed that low some time ago but never did a 2nd test. I've been expecting that second test for a while, we might see that. But barring some major USD economic disaster I doubt it'll close below 97. (imo, my .02 pips worth...)
Great analysis. UJ is headed to test 104.84 again and then we'll see. DJIA is bullish, for now anyway.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #2,247
  • May 11, 2008 1:21pm May 11, 2008 1:21pm
Some key events this week in Australia.

Could have impact on AUD and the attempt at parity (which I still think is a chance)

Tuesday the National Budget is delivered, expecting a surplus around 19Billion
Some cut backs to spending to ease inflation however tax cuts from election promises could fuel inflation from July.

Also wage price index may show if inflation concerns have finally flowed into wage demands.

Business and consumer confidence also out this week,

I'm currently short AUDUSD but looking to cover on test under 93.
  • #2,248
  • May 11, 2008 2:36pm May 11, 2008 2:36pm
I think, there are many "stop buy" orders at about 0,955.





http://img373.imageshack.us/img373/6...4444444aw9.png

I will bet some money on this chance.
  • #2,249
  • May 11, 2008 2:39pm May 11, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting zeuzera
I think, there are many "stop buy" orders at about 0,955.





http://img373.imageshack.us/img373/6...4444444aw9.png

I will bet some money on this chance.
what is your reason for 0.955 ??
  • #2,250
  • May 11, 2008 2:52pm May 11, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting hussin naiji
what is your reason for 0.955 ??

We have a consolidation for the last two months. In this consolidation we have a significant resisstenace on 0,95 level.
A few times wie have a some trading over 0,95 but as i think, the most big players are waiting for significant break of this level.
So i just bet on it that there are a lot of stop buy order on the level of 0,955.
This will extremly increase the momentum and there could be a very fast movement.

I think there is a very good chance/risk ratio.
  • #2,251
  • May 12, 2008 10:38pm May 12, 2008 10:38pm
March housing figures were dramatically down.

They will be down signigicantly again for April and May - Realtors are reporting 50% or more decline in auction closing rates in all major cities.

The Budget surplus is not expected to be as big as everyone thinks and is being made up from Significant budget cut backs. We're almost to the down cycle.


Look back at the AUD from 1983 till now and you'll see it pushes hard at the top 80's or 95's and then within months it is off those highs by 10-13 cents.

I think the call of 95.5 is a good one and seems to be playing out. I would think the big traders are waiting till it consolidates, hits around 95.5/.96, time it well before the negative data starts dominating the wires and then pull their positions and take their profit and leave the AUD till the next cycle. They know once the AUD is on the decline it it is not worth the 5% /6.75% interest rate differential on US/JPY origintatin carry trades - the decline would not just kill their profit but send them into major losses. The key to the game now is knowing when to fold and pull out hard before everyone else.

Good luck.
  • #2,252
  • May 13, 2008 11:40am May 13, 2008 11:40am
Michael,

I love reading a post where someone completely agreeing with what I'm thinking. You have to look at the monthly candles, go back, - and boom- S/P right right where we are sitting right now. and then again 96.20 I have it.. just in case it feels like that last thrust before it keels over. I hear the housing situation there is like the US practically, 1 in 140~about foreclosure? (nationwide #)
I was in Real estate, then i moved to Greece, So I read charts now instead) Fantastic opportunity in houses though if you have the cash.
EURAUD (daily)
nice ride down from 1.69 ;-) didn't get out at the exact bottom but. ;-( but I do think it'll keep up again for a while because of the floor back 2/20~/08 Agree? or did I get faked out.

Fez
It's all Good.....
  • #2,253
  • May 13, 2008 8:50pm May 13, 2008 8:50pm
my guess is retail investors in Asia - mainly japan keep trying to push the AUD. The big turn is when the major funds pull their position and switch strategies.

The data out today for AU shows wage prices are moderating. The data from the US shows US consumers are still spending, inflation possibly becoming an issue. We'll see a little more on Wed in the US with some inflation data out.

attached is a graph of the typical cycles. This one has been a big one with a large run up so it will be interesting to see how the downside plays out, and how hard.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcycles.png Size: 85 KB
  • #2,254
  • May 14, 2008 8:45pm May 14, 2008 8:45pm
I am seeing a very strong resistence for AU above. I don't trade this pair much and am trying to become proficient using TL's, but it looks like this could break below the lower D1 TL at any moment.

Is anyone else seeing this as well?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 120 KB


Based on the M1 chart below, I am thinking that a breakout in one directionor another has to occur and then it will either set new highs or hit the next W1 TL down.

For that reason I am thinking on placing both a long and short pending order.

Long at .9544 and short at .9028

Does anyone else have any insight?

Here is my monthly chart....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.jpg Size: 124 KB
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #2,255
  • May 14, 2008 8:51pm May 14, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting damonl
I am seeing a very strong resistence for AU above. I don't trade this pair much and am trying to become proficient using TL's, but it looks like this could break below the lower D1 TL at any moment.

Is anyone else seeing this as well?

Attachment
Just did.
  • #2,256
  • May 14, 2008 8:52pm May 14, 2008 8:52pm
here is an excellent report from the RBA on Australia's economic performance. From what I can see AU is cooling: http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAn..._eco_perf.html
  • #2,257
  • May 14, 2008 8:58pm May 14, 2008 8:58pm
Quoting mchael
here is an excellent report from the RBA on Australia's economic performance. From what I can see AU is cooling: http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAn..._eco_perf.html
wow...it sure does....

thanks for the info
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #2,258
  • May 14, 2008 9:29pm May 14, 2008 9:29pm
aj bye bye
  • #2,259
  • May 15, 2008 3:21am May 15, 2008 3:21am
Quote
aj bye bye

Hehe, gotta break the 21ema first, then it's going to be fun.
  • #2,260
  • May 15, 2008 3:54am May 15, 2008 3:54am
I don't know how to put this in technical terms; but I'll tell you what I think anyway, (I know you were all holding your breath).
(thanks for the stats there mchael,)
When I look at the AU, (weekly)_ every time you see it fall, - which is strait out the window, unlike the walk up, you have a almost /| ... meaning it doesn't consolidate then decide that it wants to fall like a brick. IE> the daily is far to choppy right now, and ranging, the weekly looks perfect, but my gut tells me wait, 93. will be good enough for me.

DO I make since to anyone or am I in my own world? ;=)
Fez
It's all Good.....
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