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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,521
  • May 15, 2008 1:12am May 15, 2008 1:12am
Quoting scyang
I hope we get there. Been very tight bound lately. Eurusd has run up nicely, but usdjpy is not coming down much.
You're right.
The last 8 4H bars all reside in about a 100 pip range.
Sad..... but, I think that's a set up for a good fall.
We'll just have to wait and see and trade what's in front of us.

I'm more a longer tf trader now.
I used to scalp alot, but seem to make as many, if not more, pips by using the 1/4H TFs.
So, I can wait a few days for my pips. ;-)

Also trade GC and GJ, so those keep me occupied too.

cheers
  • #6,522
  • May 15, 2008 1:34am May 15, 2008 1:34am
I guess it finally decided to budge. Set stoploss at break-even to make sure I don't lose out in case things move violently during London open.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,523
  • May 15, 2008 1:35am May 15, 2008 1:35am
And there you have it, a very solid down move, perfectly bouncing off the 4hour/daily trendline, and moving right back inside the weekly. This trade more than anything shows the importance of the technical side of trading such as trendlines and fib lines, as there was no news released right there, it was just simply doing what it is meant to do for the longer term. I hope you all paid attention and made some easy money.
  • #6,524
  • May 15, 2008 1:37am May 15, 2008 1:37am
Quoting samdelgado
And there you have it, a very solid down move, perfectly bouncing off the 4hour/daily trendline, and moving right back inside the weekly. This trade more than anything shows the importance of the technical side of trading such as trendlines and fib lines, as there was no news released right there, it was just simply doing what it is meant to do for the longer term. I hope you all paid attention and made some easy money.
Good analysis. What's your prediction of the next step in the next several hours?
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,525
  • Edited 1:51am May 15, 2008 1:39am | Edited 1:51am
it bounced at the 23.6 fib of the last move down.
London will jump on the bandwagon and keep the push down.

OOPs, wrong chart..... the GC dropped to the 23.6.... damn, I need some sleep.... ;-)
  • #6,526
  • May 15, 2008 1:42am May 15, 2008 1:42am
Quoting samdelgado
And there you have it, a very solid down move, perfectly bouncing off the 4hour/daily trendline, and moving right back inside the weekly. This trade more than anything shows the importance of the technical side of trading such as trendlines and fib lines, as there was no news released right there, it was just simply doing what it is meant to do for the longer term. I hope you all paid attention and made some easy money.
Absolutely.
There was bearish Divergence on the 4H hours ago.
Been sitting on a short since 105.25 and about 12 hours ago... ;-)
  • #6,527
  • May 15, 2008 1:46am May 15, 2008 1:46am
Quoting kujo17
Absolutely.
There was bearish Divergence on the 4H hours ago.
Been sitting on a short since 105.25 and about 12 hours ago... ;-)
Wow, patient you. You shall have you reward. What's your target tp level?
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,528
  • May 15, 2008 1:52am May 15, 2008 1:52am
Quoting scyang
Wow, patient you. You shall have you reward. What's your target tp level?
I'll take some profit at 104.00 and then let the rest of the position run to 102.57 with a trail on her.

Only Fundies will keep us from there.
But, Fundies may also help the cause.... we wait and see.
  • #6,529
  • May 15, 2008 1:56am May 15, 2008 1:56am
Quoting kujo17
I'll take some profit at 104.00 and then let the rest of the position run to 102.57 with a trail on her.

Only Fundies will keep us from there.
But, Fundies may also help the cause.... we wait and see.
Hope you are right. Right now, the pair has stalled again. USD has weakened against all other major, but not against jpy. Set my stoploss on the green side to prevent the unforeseeable.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,530
  • May 15, 2008 2:01am May 15, 2008 2:01am
It's been stalled for 12-16 hours.........

Patience.

We know she's breaking down.

Give her time to develop and RUN.

She's gotta blow below the 4H Gann and then 100sma.... then we'll see the 102, where the 200sma resides.
  • #6,531
  • May 15, 2008 2:06am May 15, 2008 2:06am
Quoting kujo17
It's been stalled for 12-16 hours.........

Patience.

We know she's breaking down.

Give her time to develop and RUN.

She's gotta blow below the 4H Gann and then 100sma.... then we'll see the 102, where the 200sma resides.
OK, will exercise patience. It's not one of my virtues.

Do you think it's buoyed by the stock market? Asian markets have been gaining and now Europe markets opened higher also.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,532
  • May 15, 2008 2:15am May 15, 2008 2:15am
Scyang, It is definitely looking primed and ready for a solid move down. I am also looking at about 104 for the first take profit. I have been extremely patient with this one also, as I entered a little early about 29 hours ago when it was at 104.6. I held through the night and today knowing it hag a ridiculous amount of resistance dating back to march last year to break if it still wanted to go up. It looks like it will pay off. There is a very heavy support zone just underneath 104, so I see it going to at least there. My two cents.
  • #6,533
  • May 15, 2008 2:40am May 15, 2008 2:40am
Quoting samdelgado
Scyang, It is definitely looking primed and ready for a solid move down. I am also looking at about 104 for the first take profit. I have been extremely patient with this one also, as I entered a little early about 29 hours ago when it was at 104.6. I held through the night and today knowing it hag a ridiculous amount of resistance dating back to march last year to break if it still wanted to go up. It looks like it will pay off. There is a very heavy support zone just underneath 104, so I see it going to at least there. My two cents.
I went in short at 105.10. I guess a bit than your level. Thanks for the analysis. Will wait and see.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,534
  • May 15, 2008 2:52am May 15, 2008 2:52am
Quoting kujo17
It's been stalled for 12-16 hours.........

Patience.

We know she's breaking down.

Give her time to develop and RUN.

She's gotta blow below the 4H Gann and then 100sma.... then we'll see the 102, where the 200sma resides.
LOL - your post was 1 min after the Frankfurt Open as the Europeans sold the dollar and bought Euros in front of the data - result, UJ down 45 pips.

Patience is the motto of all yen traders!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,535
  • May 15, 2008 3:28am May 15, 2008 3:28am
we have bounced of the trendline as i posted the chart yesterday and the next candle seems to give us confirmation of shorting pair for another 100 pips down
just wait for this candle to close
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  • #6,536
  • May 15, 2008 3:30am May 15, 2008 3:30am
I just got stopped out as the pair was moving up. Wonder if it will go up some more for me to re-enter short.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,537
  • May 15, 2008 3:34am May 15, 2008 3:34am
Be careful with your shorts. The yen has been relatively inert lately, and the movements in this pair are largely attributable to strength or weakness in the dollar. There's also some talk about decoupling of the pair's behavior from the Dow... I do see some merit to it, just look at Monday's NY session - the Dow actually closed down, yet UJ spiked up big time.
  • #6,538
  • May 15, 2008 4:21am May 15, 2008 4:21am
Quoting Subdude
Be careful with your shorts. The yen has been relatively inert lately, and the movements in this pair are largely attributable to strength or weakness in the dollar. There's also some talk about decoupling of the pair's behavior from the Dow... I do see some merit to it, just look at Monday's NY session - the Dow actually closed down, yet UJ spiked up big time.
That was because of some comments from BOJ about maybe cutting 25 basis points and other noise. From time to time it goes out of correlation but not for long. Look at my explanation of unwinding of carry trade.

It now trades 105.04 in absense of news. This pattern repeats lately from around 6:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST and by looking at EUR/JPY you can see it came from a low of 162.04 to the now high of 162.88 (High is 162.97)

They sell the Yen and buy the Euro which affects USD/JPY if done in large enough volume.

Have a great FX trading day and watch data at 8:30 AM, 9:00 AM and 10:00 when the Philly FED comes out with or without pre 10:00 AM Philly FED false rumor.

Bruce
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  • #6,539
  • May 15, 2008 4:39am May 15, 2008 4:39am
Quoting Warren Forex
That was because of some comments from BOJ about maybe cutting 25 basis points and other noise. From time to time it goes out of correlation but not for long. Look at my explanation of unwinding of carry trade.

It now trades 105.04 in absense of news. This pattern repeats lately from around 6:00 AM EST to 8:00 AM EST and by looking at EUR/JPY you can see it came from a low of 162.04 to the now high of 162.88 (High is 162.97)

They sell the Yen and buy the Euro which affects USD/JPY if done in large enough volume.

Have a great FX trading day and watch data at 8:30 AM, 9:00 AM and 10:00 when the Philly FED comes out with or without pre 10:00 AM Philly FED false rumor.

Technically speaking, EUR/USD possibly completing an intraday head and shoulder bottom and focus is on 1.5569/94 resistance. Break of which will suggest that a near term bottom is in place in EUR/USD and stronger rebound should then be seen. Such development may trigger broad based selling in the greenback which should also be seen in Swissy too.
A string of economic data will be released from the US today. Particular focus will be on Empire state & Philly Fed survey. Empire state manufacturing index is expected to stabilize at 0.6 after last month's sharp rebound from -22.2 to 0.63. Philly Fed index is expected to be up slightly from -24.9 to -20. Industrial production is expected to drop -0.1% mom in Apr. TIC capital flow is expected to drop slightly to 62.5b. NAHB housing market index is expected to be unchanged at 20.
Released overnight, Japanese machine orders dropped sharply by -8.3% mom in Mar, with yoy rate dropping -6.2%. New Zealand retail sales was surprisingly weak in Mar, falling -1.2%. Kiwi was sent sharply lower across the board after the release. Meanwhile, Aussie benefits from cross buying in AUD/NZD.

Bruce
Technically speaking, EUR/USD possibly completing an intraday head and shoulder bottom and focus is on 1.5569/94 resistance. Break of which will suggest that a near term bottom is in place in EUR/USD and stronger rebound should then be seen. Such development may trigger broad based selling in the greenback which should also be seen in Swissy too.
A string of economic data will be released from the US today. Particular focus will be on Empire state & Philly Fed survey. Empire state manufacturing index is expected to stabilize at 0.6 after last month's sharp rebound from -22.2 to 0.63. Philly Fed index is expected to be up slightly from -24.9 to -20. Industrial production is expected to drop -0.1% mom in Apr. TIC capital flow is expected to drop slightly to 62.5b. NAHB housing market index is expected to be unchanged at 20.
Released overnight, Japanese machine orders dropped sharply by -8.3% mom in Mar, with yoy rate dropping -6.2%. New Zealand retail sales was surprisingly weak in Mar, falling -1.2%. Kiwi was sent sharply lower across the board after the release. Meanwhile, Aussie benefits from cross buying in AUD/NZD.
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  • #6,540
  • Edited 5:09am May 15, 2008 5:07am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting Warren Forex
Good Morning Everyone

I am in the mood to explain the nature of the forex market as it really is.

First and foremost please keep in mind that forex is a real business where large and small organizations come to buy their inventory.

That inventory is MONEY.

Therefore BUYER and SELLER need to determine FAIR MARKET VALUE.

Then the next factor is ALL the central banks of the world that print the MONEY. They all have their own agenda. That agenda is very complex. Many times they try to control things by just putting out signals. Many times the signals do not work since all the market players combined have a lot of power. The KEY for the central banks and mainly the FED is to keep changing perceptions by putting out FALSE DATA.

Why would they do this ?

Folks as a FUNDAMENTAL FX trader let me share a BIG SECRET with all of you not aware of it at present time. The forex market is also among everything else a game. If you want to WIN the game then you must discover the REAL RULES of the game.

RULE ONE:

Understand Inflation. Prices going UP do not cause real inflation. Real inflation is caused by the FED and the other central banks printing money and much too much of it without any value attached.

So when Bernake and the others say that they want to control inflation, they are lying to the markets. If you do not know or understand this than you cannot make money in forex no matter how good you can read the lines which only represent human psychology at the moment and nothing else.

RULE TWO: All the other players including the POWERS that BE each have different agendas. Since the main point of the GAME and REAL BUSINESS is to make MONEY the 95% of the uneducated constantly lose to the 5% who either understand the RULES OF THE GAME or actually make them.

I will stop my lesson for the moment in order to allow for some thoughtful questions from anyone that wants to learn how to be a WINNER financially.

The COST of these lessons is VERY EXPENSIVE.

The COST is the TIME that you need to take in order to learn how to trade FX properly and be a WINNER in FX and more importantly in LIFE.

G-D Bless All Of You Here On Forex Factory.

Bruce

Everyone really interested please open up a $50,000 US Dollars Demo Account with FXCM. This so you can try it out with Demo Funds.

I started Demo trading September 2003. I did not do my first FX trade with real funds until March 9, 2006.

I learned my trade and then started trading FX. Just for the record my first 75 FX trades were done at Trade Freedom in Montreal.

My first 75 trades were all WINS and I doubled my first clients account from $25,000 US Dollars to $50,000 between March 9, 2006 and June 12, 2006.

I later on in 2007 from October 2, 2007 to November 6, 2007 had a string of 693 Winning FX trades in a row at PFG in Chicago. For those SKEPTICS a PDF file is available upon request.

I trade in blocks of 100K using capital of $1000 US to control 100K of USD/JPY.

We start the Lesson Now !!!

(1) NEVER TRADE more than 20% of the account so we can have $10,000 US in play maximum.

(2) Buy your positions in blocks of 100K.

(3) Once you are in a profit of at least 15 PIPS move your stop to lock in at least 5 PIPS profit. Each 10 PIPS more in profits move the stop down 10 PIPS and do it manually.

Let us say that this morning you want to trade USD/JPY and you determine in advance that the Maximum HIGH is 105.60. You wait until it hits say 105.10 as it is now and you short (1) position of 100K. It goes up to 105.20 so you short a 2ND position of 100K and then it hits the HIGH of the session at 105.308 so you ADD a 3RD position of 100K at or near 105.30 and then STOP.

In the case of today you need to be careful if you get in before 8:30 AM because of jobless claims at 8:30 AM and TICS at 9:00 AM and Philly FED at 10:00 AM and your possible "Get Out Of Dodge Card" is NAHB at 1:00 PM when if the number (20) is Consensus comes out at a all time low of 18 or worse and it could easily be 19 or maybe 21 but harder to see it at 21 under recent data releases in housing.

You trade each block as a separate trade but also keep in mind that for this TRADE PLAN that you are risking $3000 out of $50,000 or 6% of your capital.

Put Limit Out's on the FXCM Demo platform as you need a PROFIT EXIT STRATEGY.

As for your STOP if you get GOOD entry points you can place your STOP 25 PIPS away from your original entry.

So here you have a STOP at 105.35 for the FIRST position of 100K and your SECOND STOP is at 105.45 and your THIRD STOP is at 105.55 so on a worst case SCENARIO you LOSE 75 PIPS or $750 US Dollars on this 3 Position FX trade plan or 1 and 1/2 PERCENT of your total Demo capital.

If you can achieve a minimum winning percentage of 80% of ALL your FX trades as I do then the MATH guarantees your WINNING.

I will STOP here now for feedback and questions.

Have A Great and FUN trading day.

Bruce
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