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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,481
  • May 14, 2008 11:53am May 14, 2008 11:53am
Well I havent figured it out fully but I have slowed down loss rate significanlty so i'm looking an uptrend in my gains.
  • #6,482
  • May 14, 2008 12:56pm May 14, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting MindsOn
learn new thing, n testing now..
ep-105.27
tp-104.94
sl-105.43
now-105.21
close the trade de after zoom out from the chart and see overall trend...just not right...
Wait trend comes to u
  • #6,483
  • May 14, 2008 2:48pm May 14, 2008 2:48pm
Is this good thing? - i hope so. I'm still holding my short position from 104
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 21 KB
"..buy gossips, sell facts.."
  • #6,484
  • May 14, 2008 3:04pm May 14, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting lukaszm
Is this good thing? - i hope so. I'm still holding my short position from 104
nice chart Lukaszm, it is like my support and resistance.
i learned draw supports and resistances like yours alone, because many experts draw lines from 96 and for me it is a mistake.
and if you see well, you can find 3 supports near 102,50/60.

I think it was a strong signal for long... but by the way i was short.
  • #6,485
  • May 14, 2008 5:43pm May 14, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting Islander
Hi Bruce thanks for the input, I'll be delighted for more lessons and rules to help my progress http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Regards

Issy

The next lesson should be posted here within the next 24 hours.

It will deal with my own trading system as it relates to USD/JPY and a minimum account under management of $50,000 US Dollars.

I think USD/JPY is near the top at 105.50 Maximum. If new jobless claims come in much over consensus at 400,000 or so the Dow is good for at least 100 down unless the FED intervenes. We also I think have housing data tomorrow.

Just a reminder for those new to the following link.

WWW.JSMINESET.COM please take 15 minutes or so and read all of today's postings. Great information without any SPIN is there. I have been using that FREE site since 1999.

Good Evening all...

Bruce
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  • #6,486
  • May 14, 2008 6:01pm May 14, 2008 6:01pm
May 14, 2008 7:00 PM


15May12:30USD Empire St. Mfg Idx May 2.52 0.63 0.00 -10.0 5.0015May12:30USD Initial Claims k 05/10365 365 370 360 38015May12:30USD Cont. Claims k 05/033030 3020 3035 3000 305015May13:15USD Industrial Prod %m/m Apr -0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.215May13:15USD Capacity Util. % Apr 80.3 80.5 80.1 79.8 80.415May14:00USD Philly Fed Surv Idx May -19.0 -24.9 -20.0 -28.0 -14.115May17:00USD NAHB Index Idx May 20 20 21 20 2316May22:45NZD PPI--inputs %q/q Q1 1.5 1.3 n/a n/a n/a16May22:45NZD PPI--inputs %y/y Q1 6.5 3.4 n/a n/a n/a16May22:45NZD PPI--outputs %q/q Q1 1.8 1.5 n/a n/a n/a16May22:45NZD PPI--outputs %q/q Q1 6.2 4.0 n/a n/a n/a16May23:50JPY GDP %q/q Q1 -0.3 0.9 0.7 n/a n/a16May23:50JPY GDP SAAR Q1 -1.0 3.5 n/a n/a n/a16May23:50JPY GDP %y/y Q1 0.8 2.0 n/a n/a n/a16May04:01MYR Manufacturing s %y/y Mar n/f 21.1 16May04:30JPY Indust output ( %m/m Mar -3.1 1.6 n/a n/a n/a16May04:30JPY Indust output ( %y/y Mar -0.4 5.1 n/a n/a n/a16May05:00SGD Non-oil dom exp %m/m Apr 7.0 -2.5 16May05:00SGD Non-oil dom exp %y/y Apr 3.9 -5.9 16May06:45FRA Payrolls sa %q/q Q1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.316May07:15CHF Retail Sales sa %y/y Mar 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.0 5.116May08:00ITA Trade Balance bn Mar -1.0 -0.4 -0.9 -2.0 0.316May08:15HKD GDP %q/q Q1 1.0 1.6 16May08:15HKD GDP %y/y Q1 6.0 6.7 16May08:15HKD GDP--4Q avg %y/y Q1 6.4 6.3 16May09:00EUR Trade Balance s Bn Mar 1.2 0.8 0.9 -0.3 4.016May12:30CAD New Auto Sales %m/m Mar 0.2 -3.2 0.0 0.0 0.216May12:30USD Housing Starts k Apr 935 947 940 890 98516May12:30USD Building Permit k Apr 915 927 915 885 93716May14:00USD U of Mich (Prel Idx May 63.0 62.6 62.5 60.0 66.4
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  • #6,487
  • May 14, 2008 7:04pm May 14, 2008 7:04pm
UJ is currently sitting a mere 115 pips below the W1 TL which has held since since 6/25/07....almost 1 year.

Everytime that it has been close to this TL, it has hit it. We are now very close to it. Too close not go up and give it a kiss. From there we will definietly see a sell off while we wait for the US news. If the news is good and UJ can sustain above this line for a period of time she will have then formed a very strong support line.

However, we are also below two D1 TL, which were breached today. I would expect the price to at least reach the high of yesterday, but I also think once agian that we are too close the the W1 TL to not go up and give it a little peck.

From there your guess is as good as mine and we will have to see what happens tomorrow.

Blue lines are W1 TL and red lines are D1 TL

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 132 KB
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #6,488
  • May 14, 2008 7:17pm May 14, 2008 7:17pm
News from Japan just now was bad, so yen won't be strong for a while. Don't see how usdjpy can dip very low.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,489
  • May 14, 2008 8:13pm May 14, 2008 8:13pm
Quoting scyang
Downward move not happening. How much longer before it start or we call it quits?
Just enjoy the trades before it makes any huge movement ...
  • #6,490
  • May 14, 2008 8:14pm May 14, 2008 8:14pm
I love these small movements back and forth, you can scalp the living shit out of it ......
  • #6,491
  • May 14, 2008 8:20pm May 14, 2008 8:20pm
Quoting Schminner
I love these small movements back and forth, you can scalp the living shit out of it ......
FORSURE!!!!! That is why I love this pair.
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #6,492
  • May 14, 2008 8:27pm May 14, 2008 8:27pm
Quoting wheelsut
FORSURE!!!!! That is why I love this pair.
Cheers to that !!!!!
  • #6,493
  • May 14, 2008 8:32pm May 14, 2008 8:32pm
Quoting wheelsut
FORSURE!!!!! That is why I love this pair.
Trouble is it's still very hard to gauge how much up and down it will move within the band. If one is not careful, it can break out and one might be caught in the wrong direction.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,494
  • May 14, 2008 8:35pm May 14, 2008 8:35pm
Quoting scyang
Trouble is it's still very hard to gauge how much up and down it will move within the band. If one is not careful, it can break out and one might be caught in the wrong direction.
Nobody can gauge any pair within a band ... but this one seems to be the most tamed of all ...
  • #6,495
  • May 14, 2008 8:49pm May 14, 2008 8:49pm
Quoting scyang
News from Japan just now was bad, so yen won't be strong for a while. Don't see how usdjpy can dip very low.
As long as the BOJ holds the rate at .50 basis points the weak numbers in Japan have no lasting effect.

Here is how the Carry Trade in Yen US Dollar works.

Better to see it from last August 2007 when the US Discount rate was 5.25% and I think BOJ was at 0 or .25 or even .50 basis points.

So Miss Sexy Japan Investor/Housewife borrows $10,000 US Dollars in YEN at .25 or .50 Basis points and buys US Dollars and gets the spread at 5.25% less the .50 basis points. That is PROFIT in this example of 4.75%

Then Miss Japan Investor/Housewife buys the Dow as it goes UP and UP

Everyone is a WINNER and 2 Trillion Carry Trade in YEN is born.

Along comes Sub Prime ABCP and all that JAZZ

Fed Cuts to 2% VS .50 basis points and GONE is Spread Edge...

The Depreciation in US Dollar (Yen 125 VS 105 NOW) and now to the Dow and the unwinding of Two Trillion Dollar Carry Trade.

The Dow goes down 250 points. They sell and get US Dollars and they SELL US Dollars and pay off their $10,000 Loan by BUYING back YEN and paying Lender.

Any Questions ? Class :-)
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  • #6,496
  • May 14, 2008 8:52pm May 14, 2008 8:52pm
Quoting Warren Forex
Any Questions ? Class :-)
Can I borrow $10,000 or 10,000 Yen ??
  • #6,497
  • May 14, 2008 9:09pm May 14, 2008 9:09pm
Quoting Warren Forex
As long as the BOJ holds the rate at .50 basis points the weak numbers in Japan have no lasting effect.

Here is how the Carry Trade in Yen US Dollar works.

Better to see it from last August 2007 when the US Discount rate was 5.25% and I think BOJ was at 0 or .25 or even .50 basis points.

So Miss Sexy Japan Investor/Housewife borrows $10,000 US Dollars in YEN at .25 or .50 Basis points and buys US Dollars and gets the spread at 5.25% less the .50 basis points. That is PROFIT in this example of 4.75%

Then Miss Japan Investor/Housewife buys the Dow as it goes UP and UP

Everyone is a WINNER and 2 Trillion Carry Trade in YEN is born.

Along comes Sub Prime ABCP and all that JAZZ

Fed Cuts to 2% VS .50 basis points and GONE is Spread Edge...

The Depreciation in US Dollar (Yen 125 VS 105 NOW) and now to the Dow and the unwinding of Two Trillion Dollar Carry Trade.

The Dow goes down 250 points. They sell and get US Dollars and they SELL US Dollars and pay off their $10,000 Loan by BUYING back YEN and paying Lender.

Any Questions ? Class :-)
So are you saying that you expect the yen to gain in value against the USD in the newr future?
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #6,498
  • May 14, 2008 9:15pm May 14, 2008 9:15pm
we will see a large sell off for sushi in 105.80 or 90
  • #6,499
  • May 14, 2008 9:21pm May 14, 2008 9:21pm
Quoting hussin naiji
we will see a large sell off for sushi in 105.80 or 90
This would be aokay with me. I had the sell off just below 105.8, but we are close
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #6,500
  • May 14, 2008 9:26pm May 14, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting Schminner
Can I borrow $10,000 or 10,000 Yen ??

Tell her that you love her and will massage her and shop for her groceries and ask her to lend you $10,000 US Dollars or One Million Yen so you can trade Currencies

USD/JPY is at 105.00 Bid ready to TEST 104.50 Overnight...

Bruce
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