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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,441
  • May 13, 2008 9:26pm May 13, 2008 9:26pm
Quoting MindsOn
the retail sales makes it uptrend, now seems it is waiting Wednesday news to make it move in either way..

Im looking better exists point for my short, not praying the trade must win but try to make it loose less
Ok hope you get out good. I think probably many others are stuck in red like you because I saw many are predicting that it is in a strong down trend. Will see what Wednesday's news brings.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,442
  • May 13, 2008 9:49pm May 13, 2008 9:49pm
I am long from 104.9 i dont know but for me i see it going up atleast 105.12 .. unless we hit 104.5 .. Only my thoughts ..
  • #6,443
  • May 13, 2008 9:55pm May 13, 2008 9:55pm
Quoting WARaintOVER
I am long from 104.9 i dont know but for me i see it going up atleast 105.12 .. unless we hit 104.5 .. Only my thoughts ..
You are right, so i'll see it hits which one only decide my exists point
Wait trend comes to u
  • #6,444
  • May 13, 2008 9:56pm May 13, 2008 9:56pm
There is strong resistance at 104.95 I really do not see this pair going above 105 but I do see it going down until the open of US market. Then the news will direct us. We will see....
creating wealth one pip at a time.....
  • #6,445
  • May 13, 2008 10:00pm May 13, 2008 10:00pm
Quoting wheelsut
There is strong resistance at 104.95 I really do not see this pair going above 105 but I do see it going down until the open of US market. Then the news will direct us. We will see....

yes, its possible...thats y still holding my shorts...waiting the newsss
Wait trend comes to u
  • #6,446
  • May 13, 2008 10:05pm May 13, 2008 10:05pm
Quoting MindsOn
yes, its possible...thats y still holding my shorts...waiting the newsss
All eyes on the news tonight. The other thing is that usdjpy seems to be very sensitive to the direction of the stock market. If the US market is down, usdjpy will go down as well. So keep an eye on the SP futures.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,447
  • May 13, 2008 10:09pm May 13, 2008 10:09pm
Quoting scyang
All eyes on the news tonight. The other thing is that usdjpy seems to be very sensitive to the direction of the stock market. If the US market is down, usdjpy will go down as well. So keep an eye on the SP futures.
ya,thanks for reminding.
Wait trend comes to u
  • #6,448
  • May 13, 2008 11:10pm May 13, 2008 11:10pm
Added slightly to our short position around 104.80 The daily still looks to be setting up for a big drop and we're still holding, looking for 100.55
  • #6,449
  • May 14, 2008 2:26am May 14, 2008 2:26am
Quoting FX Foresight
Added slightly to our short position around 104.80 The daily still looks to be setting up for a big drop and we're still holding, looking for 100.55
Just don't see how 100.55 is going to come about. What's your time frame? Don't know anybody here is a long-term trader. Mostly intraday traders. It's at 105.15. Was higher earlier. If the stock market is good and have some green US news, the pair will push above 105.50.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,450
  • May 14, 2008 3:06am May 14, 2008 3:06am
Quoting scyang
Just don't see how 100.55 is going to come about. What's your time frame? Don't know anybody here is a long-term trader. Mostly intraday traders. It's at 105.15. Was higher earlier. If the stock market is good and have some green US news, the pair will push above 105.50.
its interesting scyang,

currently it's at 105.10, and RSI 14, in H1 time frame, are above 70 level..
just curious what will happen next..

have you more information?
  • #6,451
  • May 14, 2008 3:08am May 14, 2008 3:08am
Quoting plumiash
its interesting scyang,

currently it's at 105.10, and RSI 14, in H1 time frame, are above 70 level..
just curious what will happen next..

have you more information?
I don't have any additional information. Just watching the market closely. Not holding any position right now. But when the news start to come out later, the market will move around feverishly. I am just trying to find out from ff why he is so sure that usdjpy will go down so low when the price action is obviously to the other direction.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,452
  • May 14, 2008 4:04am May 14, 2008 4:04am
dare to short? it will b double edge knife... ^.^

if scare wait for clear sign..huhuhu

im waitin for GJ instead of UJ..
Swinger Club
  • #6,453
  • May 14, 2008 4:12am May 14, 2008 4:12am
Quoting lowyat82
dare to short? it will b double edge knife... ^.^

if scare wait for clear sign..huhuhu

im waitin for GJ instead of UJ..
I wouldn't short this pair for sure. Don't have a clear direction with additional news coming out the US later. If green news, thir pair can be pushing 106.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,454
  • May 14, 2008 4:17am May 14, 2008 4:17am
Quoting scyang
I wouldn't short this pair for sure. Don't have a clear direction with additional news coming out the US later. If green news, thir pair can be pushing 106.
well, as u like ^.^

d risk reward is low to open shorts
Swinger Club
  • #6,455
  • May 14, 2008 4:28am May 14, 2008 4:28am
Opened a short @ 105.32
  • #6,456
  • May 14, 2008 4:41am May 14, 2008 4:41am
Quoting Subdude
Opened a short @ 105.32
What signal did you get to go short? Anyway good luck.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,457
  • May 14, 2008 4:43am May 14, 2008 4:43am
Quoting scyang
What signal did you get to go short? Anyway good luck.
Potential double-top formation on the hourly. Anyway, it didn't feel quite right, especially with everything going on in my other positions so I closed for some small pip TP.
  • #6,458
  • May 14, 2008 5:40am May 14, 2008 5:40am
here is my 2 cents on where the yen is going, as well as some other pairs. you can take this with a grain of salt and have fun blasting it, it is jmho. wait, jmhct.

remember back a little while ago, maybe a month when the g7/g8, got together and complained about the volitility in the markets??? since then what have we seen?? dollar strength. a bunch of changes were made, larger leverage positions on futures, etc... then boj saying the would not keep the jpy from strengthening, complaints of the euro being too high. the biggest thing was that all the press was screaming the u.s. was in recession, when the numbers have not shown that, but in a slowdown. not that the u.s. cannot go into one anytime for the next few months, but it is looking less likely. the issue was that noone wants to admit how much the u.s. economy still affects the world, and they are paying for that arrogance. now fast forward to now. the jpy as all currencies have enjoyed huge gains over the dollar over the last year, and everyone piled on when they realized the slowdown in the u.s. economy late last year when the housing bubble got a huge leak. this was just like the tech bubble around 2000. now that all of those people have gotten out and taken profit, the big boys have gotten the market back to where it should be. the boj i am sure is manipulating their currency weaker, since it will hurt their economy very badly if they are too strong versus the dollar. their people do not spend money, they save it, so they need us and other countries to be the consumer, hence, a weaker jpy, their goods are more affordable and their industries make money. sometimes the charts are just charts, but do remember, the charts do not see into the future, they only give us possibilites with info that is in the present. charts have been wrong before. we do not have all of the info until it is rel;eased and govt's are looking out for the best interests of their people and economies, not how much you will make in forex looking at your charts. i have gotten caught with my pants down looking at my charts when it goes the other way.

just my rantings of a tired brain.
  • #6,459
  • May 14, 2008 6:20am May 14, 2008 6:20am
Quoting mtrmth
here is my 2 cents on where the yen is going, as well as some other pairs. you can take this with a grain of salt and have fun blasting it, it is jmho. wait, jmhct.

remember back a little while ago, maybe a month when the g7/g8, got together and complained about the volitility in the markets??? since then what have we seen?? dollar strength. a bunch of changes were made, larger leverage positions on futures, etc... then boj saying the would not keep the jpy from strengthening, complaints of the euro being too high. the biggest thing was that all the press was screaming the u.s. was in recession, when the numbers have not shown that, but in a slowdown. not that the u.s. cannot go into one anytime for the next few months, but it is looking less likely. the issue was that noone wants to admit how much the u.s. economy still affects the world, and they are paying for that arrogance. now fast forward to now. the jpy as all currencies have enjoyed huge gains over the dollar over the last year, and everyone piled on when they realized the slowdown in the u.s. economy late last year when the housing bubble got a huge leak. this was just like the tech bubble around 2000. now that all of those people have gotten out and taken profit, the big boys have gotten the market back to where it should be. the boj i am sure is manipulating their currency weaker, since it will hurt their economy very badly if they are too strong versus the dollar. their people do not spend money, they save it, so they need us and other countries to be the consumer, hence, a weaker jpy, their goods are more affordable and their industries make money. sometimes the charts are just charts, but do remember, the charts do not see into the future, they only give us possibilites with info that is in the present. charts have been wrong before. we do not have all of the info until it is rel;eased and govt's are looking out for the best interests of their people and economies, not how much you will make in forex looking at your charts. i have gotten caught with my pants down looking at my charts when it goes the other way.

just my rantings of a tired brain.

Good Morning Everyone

I am in the mood to explain the nature of the forex market as it really is.

First and foremost please keep in mind that forex is a real business where large and small organizations come to buy their inventory.

That inventory is MONEY.

Therefore BUYER and SELLER need to determine FAIR MARKET VALUE.

Then the next factor is ALL the central banks of the world that print the MONEY. They all have their own agenda. That agenda is very complex. Many times they try to control things by just putting out signals. Many times the signals do not work since all the market players combined have a lot of power. The KEY for the central banks and mainly the FED is to keep changing perceptions by putting out FALSE DATA.

Why would they do this ?

Folks as a FUNDAMENTAL FX trader let me share a BIG SECRET with all of you not aware of it at present time. The forex market is also among everything else a game. If you want to WIN the game then you must discover the REAL RULES of the game.

RULE ONE:

Understand Inflation. Prices going UP do not cause real inflation. Real inflation is caused by the FED and the other central banks printing money and much too much of it without any value attached.

So when Bernake and the others say that they want to control inflation, they are lying to the markets. If you do not know or understand this than you cannot make money in forex no matter how good you can read the lines which only represent human psychology at the moment and nothing else.

RULE TWO: All the other players including the POWERS that BE each have different agendas. Since the main point of the GAME and REAL BUSINESS is to make MONEY the 95% of the uneducated constantly lose to the 5% who either understand the RULES OF THE GAME or actually make them.

I will stop my lesson for the moment in order to allow for some thoughtful questions from anyone that wants to learn how to be a WINNER financially.

The COST of these lessons is VERY EXPENSIVE.

The COST is the TIME that you need to take in order to learn how to trade FX properly and be a WINNER in FX and more importantly in LIFE.

G-D Bless All Of You Here On Forex Factory.

Bruce
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  • #6,460
  • May 14, 2008 6:37am May 14, 2008 6:37am
“The world is not designed for the people. It is designed to keep the
institutions up, it is designed to keep the philosophies up, and it is designed
to support the governments. You as the ordinary working people are always
sent the bill. You get to pay for everything. If there is a mistake you get to pay
for it. If there is some kind of disaster you pay for it.” STUART WILDE
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