then prove it. with EVIDENCE!
HINT) there is none....
HINT) there is none....
Perplexed - year spent looking for system
- #81
- May 13, 2008 10:18pm May 13, 2008 10:18pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
- #82
- May 13, 2008 10:24pm May 13, 2008 10:24pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #83
- Edited 10:46pm May 13, 2008 10:36pm | Edited 10:46pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
- #85
- May 13, 2008 10:59pm May 13, 2008 10:59pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
- #86
- May 13, 2008 11:06pm May 13, 2008 11:06pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
- #87
- May 13, 2008 11:08pm May 13, 2008 11:08pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: (Latin: statūs), rank, state | 3,127 Posts
then prove it. with EVIDENCE!
HINT) there is none....
don't have to waste your time here. Go to Casino while your LUCK is at peak.
Don't mislead newbies. You can keep on arguing all over the forum about LUCK in market like .... example, today I drive home safely because of LUCK, (I don't have prove to say it's not) but I do know that as a old/mature driver if compare to I new one on the road, driving, my experiences & skill & alertness, AWARENESS... on the road and better handling my car, I would have better "LUCK" than those newbies to bump into accidents more often.
Observing & learning from those real experience traders like James16,Jacko......(just to name fews) will better our "LUCK". (like trade longer timeframe, PA, S/R, trendlines, ....) it's all the wisdoms within itself for us so we could understand the market&price&business.
OK. I want to be lucky(all the times as possible). I want it but i know it's not always with me and I need a backup & resolution & be flexible if LUCK not with me for long time... maybe...
It's interesting to learn from you that how "LUCK" helps you in consistently- "profitable" in this business... ah.. don't forget with EVIDENCE please
- #90
- May 13, 2008 11:14pm May 13, 2008 11:14pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
- #92
- May 13, 2008 11:27pm May 13, 2008 11:27pm
- Joined Nov 2005 | Status: EURUSD Quant FREAK | 3,197 Posts
- #94
- May 13, 2008 11:32pm May 13, 2008 11:32pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trying manual mode again | 2,210 Posts
It is obvious that neither side of this argument will convince the other of its correctness.
I personally believe that at least some of what TDION is saying is true. There is an element of randomness in the market. Does it mean that the average Joe cannot consistently profit from this minor trip into the land of chaos? No, in fact I believe with enough effort, time and desire the majority of forex traders could consistently become profitable. Unfortunately, most will quit before reaching that point.
Where I believe the majority of traders faulter is not so much directly due to the random movements of the markets but a predictable emotional reaction to a trade moving against you, even when that move doesn't go negative but merely drops the profit level a little. Who do you think understands that mental beartrap better than the big banks that move the market in the first place? They know roughly how many pips it needs to move against the average joe to cause them to close their position in fear of loss.
The key to long term success, again in my opinion, is overcoming this inate fear of loss that we all have in us. I personally believe that this fear of loss drives a large number of traders to try and find an automated trading strategy. Most figure that if they can find the best EA, then they can just start it up on Sunday night and shut it off on Friday and not be in front of the computer watching their account move up and down. Even some non-EA based systems tought the "Set it and forget it" mentality.
Please remember this is only my opinion and it in fact comes from someone with Freak as a part of their username, consider that before choosing to follow his advice.
I personally believe that at least some of what TDION is saying is true. There is an element of randomness in the market. Does it mean that the average Joe cannot consistently profit from this minor trip into the land of chaos? No, in fact I believe with enough effort, time and desire the majority of forex traders could consistently become profitable. Unfortunately, most will quit before reaching that point.
Where I believe the majority of traders faulter is not so much directly due to the random movements of the markets but a predictable emotional reaction to a trade moving against you, even when that move doesn't go negative but merely drops the profit level a little. Who do you think understands that mental beartrap better than the big banks that move the market in the first place? They know roughly how many pips it needs to move against the average joe to cause them to close their position in fear of loss.
The key to long term success, again in my opinion, is overcoming this inate fear of loss that we all have in us. I personally believe that this fear of loss drives a large number of traders to try and find an automated trading strategy. Most figure that if they can find the best EA, then they can just start it up on Sunday night and shut it off on Friday and not be in front of the computer watching their account move up and down. Even some non-EA based systems tought the "Set it and forget it" mentality.
Please remember this is only my opinion and it in fact comes from someone with Freak as a part of their username, consider that before choosing to follow his advice.
i see we are back to the random vs non random argument again.
I think the markets are mostly random but there are a few times when the market is less random than others due to sheer momentum those are the times when traders can make money if they are patient and wait
some people say that the higher the timeframe the less the randomness. I disagree with this. in terms of trading the higher you go the more chance you have of making money, but that is merely because you pay the house fees less. what kills lower timeframe trades is spread - on a higher timeframe you pay a small spread a few times a month - on the lower you pay several times a day and the returns vs the spread becomes a factor.
anyway, i digress.
here's a challenge - those who say that the market is predictable the higher you go in timeframe do this - predict the direction of each one of the next ten four hour candles. like up, up, down, up, up, down down, up, down, down. - that will give a true measure of ten consecutive trades winning if anyone managed it, and someone would. the trader in you will say "only if i can choose which bar" fine - any bar you like providing you predict it in the closing second of the previous bar.
lets see if there is a greater than 1/1024 chance of getting it right.
if you can predict the direction of the any four hour candle then why arent you betting the house on it? - you only need to do it once a month for one single candle to make a mint. that by the way is still not a true 50/50 bet because there is the roulette zero effect - ie the bar ends a perfect doji - that's the house edge.
I think the markets are mostly random but there are a few times when the market is less random than others due to sheer momentum
those are the times when traders can make money if they are patient and waitsome people say that the higher the timeframe the less the randomness. I disagree with this. in terms of trading the higher you go the more chance you have of making money, but that is merely because you pay the house fees less. what kills lower timeframe trades is spread - on a higher timeframe you pay a small spread a few times a month - on the lower you pay several times a day and the returns vs the spread becomes a factor.
anyway, i digress.
here's a challenge - those who say that the market is predictable the higher you go in timeframe do this - predict the direction of each one of the next ten four hour candles. like up, up, down, up, up, down down, up, down, down. - that will give a true measure of ten consecutive trades winning if anyone managed it, and someone would. the trader in you will say "only if i can choose which bar" fine - any bar you like providing you predict it in the closing second of the previous bar.
lets see if there is a greater than 1/1024 chance of getting it right.
if you can predict the direction of the any four hour candle then why arent you betting the house on it? - you only need to do it once a month for one single candle to make a mint. that by the way is still not a true 50/50 bet because there is the roulette zero effect - ie the bar ends a perfect doji - that's the house edge.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
- #99
- May 14, 2008 5:21am May 14, 2008 5:21am
It is obvious that neither side of this argument will convince the other of its correctness.
I personally believe that at least some of what TDION is saying is true. There is an element of randomness in the market. Does it mean that the average Joe cannot consistently profit from this minor trip into the land of chaos? No, in fact I believe with enough effort, time and desire the majority of forex traders could consistently become profitable. Unfortunately, most will quit before reaching that point.
Where I believe the majority of traders faulter is not so much directly due to the random movements of the markets but a predictable emotional reaction to a trade moving against you, even when that move doesn't go negative but merely drops the profit level a little. Who do you think understands that mental beartrap better than the big banks that move the market in the first place? They know roughly how many pips it needs to move against the average joe to cause them to close their position in fear of loss.
The key to long term success, again in my opinion, is overcoming this inate fear of loss that we all have in us. I personally believe that this fear of loss drives a large number of traders to try and find an automated trading strategy. Most figure that if they can find the best EA, then they can just start it up on Sunday night and shut it off on Friday and not be in front of the computer watching their account move up and down. Even some non-EA based systems tought the "Set it and forget it" mentality.
Please remember this is only my opinion and it in fact comes from someone with Freak as a part of their username, consider that before choosing to follow his advice.
Who do you think understands that mental beartrap better than the big banks that move the market in the first place? They know roughly how many pips it needs to move against the average joe to cause them to close their position in fear of loss.
Now think about it, if the market is a random activity, brokers will not be making money, or at best they will be making random profit. There will not be 95% of losers who quits........may be something like 40/45% of winners/losers..........this is how random system functions.
Please do not get me wrong here, brokers do not know direction of the market much better than you, but they know that 95% of traders are
gripped with FEAR FACTOR. This is the knowlege they have. they study traders and find them to have a highly organised (NOT RANDOM) FEAR of losing in them. You see nothing is RANDOM.
Look at this way again, in this forum we had a case of some who posted how he turned $100 into 100k. Was that event random chance among 95% of traders gripped with FEAR? The Answer is YES.
So it is not the market that is random but reactions of traders to a highly organised system.
Otherwise we could see more results of people turning $100 into $100k in 1 week even with demo accounts. That act was not repeated so far by another person or same person.