then prove it. with EVIDENCE!
HINT) there is none....
HINT) there is none....
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Dislikedwell first the fact that the market is random can never be DISPROVEN. so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
now, as for your example.... if the market is random, the odds of the next TICK being up or down is 50/50...
that has nothing to do with getting 10 winning trades in a row or not. the fact that some systems have a stop loss of 100 and a take profit of 10 mean that there is a 10X better chance of hitting the TP than the SL.
by the way putto, i don't see how speaking in facts is condescending. in fact, i bet a few people find it refreshing. people are trading with REAL HARD EARNED money and don't like being duped by promises of beach houses and ferrarris. there are plenty of threads like that around for anyone to see....Ignored
Dislikedwell, actually, i know the "structure" you speak of....
it goes like this....
news is released.... central bankers react....
news is released.... central bankers react....
clear?
the randomness comes from several bankers reacting in different ways that best suite their own countries economies.
the only half-way predictable method is straddling before news releases, and canceling the order that isn't hit.
these are undisputed facts. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that there is plenty of randomness between news releases, as central bankers speculate on their positions. the only "edge" possible is to get inside the head of the banker before he orders a multi-billion dollar sell-off or buying spree.Ignored
Dislikedwell, actually, i know the "structure" you speak of....
it goes like this....
news is released.... central bankers react....
news is released.... central bankers react....
clear?
the randomness comes from several bankers reacting in different ways that best suite their own countries economies.
the only half-way predictable method is straddling before news releases, and canceling the order that isn't hit.
these are undisputed facts. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that there is plenty of randomness between news releases, as central bankers speculate on their positions. the only "edge" possible is to get inside the head of the banker before he orders a multi-billion dollar sell-off or buying spree.Ignored
Dislikedwell i apologize to everyone that i have managed to hog the thread
something got into me tonight
putto, my answer to "is the dollar weakening random?" is a resounding YES! could you have predicted that the dollar was going to drop in 2001? NO!
could you have predicted that it would have dropped 50% against the euro? NO!
the reason is, the nice big trend on your chart is the results of hundreds of negative news releases against the US economy.... IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW BEFORE HAND....
as for your point about interest rates, unemployment rates, etc.... a very good argument on your behalf, by the way.... but i will counter-argue and say that forex is EXTREMELY EFFICIENT.... that price stabilizes to where it "should be" after news within a minute or two, without any lag.....
this is made possible by so few players participating (CBs) that small fries like you and i will never climb on board a lagging trend. that's why i say, it is the CBs that control everything, and forex isn't really a market. think of it as a penny stock with very low volume, that they easily manipulate. you might laugh, but its actually pretty accurate (though spikes are not as drastic)
well, i enjoy this friendly dispute, and don't want to exude hostility. if i have at least challenged you to THINK a little, that's better than nothing.Ignored
DislikedIt is obvious that neither side of this argument will convince the other of its correctness.
I personally believe that at least some of what TDION is saying is true. There is an element of randomness in the market. Does it mean that the average Joe cannot consistently profit from this minor trip into the land of chaos? No, in fact I believe with enough effort, time and desire the majority of forex traders could consistently become profitable. Unfortunately, most will quit before reaching that point.
Where I believe the majority of traders faulter is not so much directly due to the random movements of the markets but a predictable emotional reaction to a trade moving against you, even when that move doesn't go negative but merely drops the profit level a little. Who do you think understands that mental beartrap better than the big banks that move the market in the first place? They know roughly how many pips it needs to move against the average joe to cause them to close their position in fear of loss.
The key to long term success, again in my opinion, is overcoming this inate fear of loss that we all have in us. I personally believe that this fear of loss drives a large number of traders to try and find an automated trading strategy. Most figure that if they can find the best EA, then they can just start it up on Sunday night and shut it off on Friday and not be in front of the computer watching their account move up and down. Even some non-EA based systems tought the "Set it and forget it" mentality.
Please remember this is only my opinion and it in fact comes from someone with Freak as a part of their username, consider that before choosing to follow his advice.Ignored
DislikedWho do you think understands that mental beartrap better than the big banks that move the market in the first place? They know roughly how many pips it needs to move against the average joe to cause them to close their position in fear of loss.Ignored