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  • #9,161
  • May 13, 2008 3:20am May 13, 2008 3:20am
Looks like small head and shoulders forming on 15m chart.
  • #9,162
  • May 13, 2008 3:22am May 13, 2008 3:22am
Quoting tamster
Looks like small head and shoulders forming on 15m chart.
On the 30M and 1H chart look like double top.
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,163
  • May 13, 2008 3:52am May 13, 2008 3:52am
Quoting itechdev
It has already broken the bear resistance and is struggling to close below it.

The trend line you have drawn should be taken back two previous highs as the high now is not yet established.

I think it is the fib line stopping it from going any further at the moment. If it breaks it, we should see the price head to 1.5650.
Sorry for the delay, my previous reply got lost in the news clog.

I have that longterm TL, fibs, and other stuff on my charts as well, just not on the one posted. I simplified that one to make the point about not knowing what "ideal" resistance is. If there's a solid resistance on a 4 hr chart that price is firmly respecting, then what's not to like?

That short from M3 and the short term 4 hr TL was good for 54 pips to the bottom. I think my line worked rather well, no matter what else it does later.

Your "already broken" statement would need to be confirmed by price actually getting established above it, which it has not done to this point IMO. It could also drop nicely back into that channel, which it is now doing nearly 2 hrs into London.

In any event, I trade my charts, not somebody elses, as should we all. Longs not looking good at this point.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #9,164
  • May 13, 2008 3:59am May 13, 2008 3:59am
Quoting ak4x
Sorry for the delay, my previous reply got lost in the news clog.

I have that longterm TL, fibs, and other stuff on my charts as well, just not on the one posted. I simplified that one to make the point about not knowing what "ideal" resistance is. If there's a solid resistance on a 4 hr chart that price is firmly respecting, then what's not to like?

That short from M3 and the short term 4 hr TL was good for 54 pips to the bottom. I think my line worked rather well, no matter what else it does later.

Your "already broken" statement would need to be confirmed by price actually getting established above it, which it has not done to this point IMO. It could also drop nicely back into that channel, which it is now doing nearly 2 hrs into London.

In any event, I trade my charts, not somebody elses, as should we all. Longs not looking good at this point.
Price already below your 1.5495 level. Are you seeing fiber going way down or stablize soon? The head and shoulder was very small, so the drop may be just marginal.
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,165
  • May 13, 2008 4:08am May 13, 2008 4:08am
Anybody long on EURUSD. Hope you had stop loss. Don't know what happened. Just dropped out of the blue. Anybody understand why?
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,166
  • May 13, 2008 4:11am May 13, 2008 4:11am
Quoting scyang
Anybody long on EURUSD. Hope you had stop loss. Don't know what happened. Just dropped out of the blue. Anybody understand why?
Jacko says its going to 1.5200
  • #9,167
  • May 13, 2008 4:14am May 13, 2008 4:14am
Quoting forexfixer
Jacko says its going to 1.5200
When did Jacko say that? Does he have a timeframe? Of course, it might be there at the end of the year, but we are mostly intraday traders.
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,168
  • May 13, 2008 4:17am May 13, 2008 4:17am
Quoting scyang
Anybody long on EURUSD. Hope you had stop loss. Don't know what happened. Just dropped out of the blue. Anybody understand why?
Got stopped out of my positions at .5490. Looking to get back in her soon. Want to get back in long but we might see more of this whippy action for a few more hrs. so it's wait and see.
  • #9,169
  • May 13, 2008 4:26am May 13, 2008 4:26am
Here is a picture of the price action since the session open at 5pm EST where the colored Pivot Point zone starts.

In the top chart, price dropped to lower BB from the central pivot (green) right from the open at 5pm. It climbed in pre-London action to it's session high (the head fake I posted earlier), was firmly rejected at M3, 4 hr TL, and fib resistance, and the handwriting for London was on the wall from then on.

Expected GBP news could not take it higher, and US news hasn't made much difference lately, good or bad, either way the USD wants to get stronger. It may climb, but at this point why would it? If it breaks the red shaded area on first chart, it's not a time to be long...

Lower chart shows price bouncing off lower bb band. I expect it to drift at current levels until NY. If there's even a whiff of good or mediocre US news, I'd expect it to drop lower yet. It could drop even if the news is bad. Look at MBIA earnings this AM; twice as bad as expected, and the markets and MBIA stock rose.
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Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #9,170
  • May 13, 2008 4:31am May 13, 2008 4:31am
Quoting ak4x
Here is a picture of the price action since the session open at 5pm EST where the colored Pivot Point zone starts.

In the top chart, price dropped to lower BB from the central pivot (green) right from the open at 5pm. It climbed in pre-London action to it's session high (the head fake I posted earlier), was firmly rejected at M3, 4 hr TL, and fib resistance, and the handwriting for London was on the wall from then on.

Expected GBP news could not take it higher, and US news hasn't made much difference lately, good or bad, either way the USD wants to get stronger. It may climb, but at this point why would it? If it breaks the red shaded area on first chart, it's not a time to be long...

Lower chart shows price bouncing off lower bb band. I expect it to drift at current levels until NY. If there's even a whiff of good or mediocre US news, I'd expect it to drop lower yet. It could drop even if the news is bad. Look at MBIA earnings this AM; twice as bad as expected, and the markets and MBIA stock rose.
It was the most amazing thing with MBIA yesterday. It was so horrible yet the shares went way up, only for a few shorts moments in the beginning were they down. There is no logic. No idea what the retail sales number will do to fiber today. Most strange thing the green news from UK sent USD down and euro and gbp down. Makes no sense.
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,171
  • May 13, 2008 4:40am May 13, 2008 4:40am
Quoting scyang
Most strange thing the green news from UK sent USD down and euro and gbp down. Makes no sense.
I agree bro, but realize it does make sense to someone... If the money bags have determined that the USD is going to strengthen, then strengthen it will, at least until it's taken out of their hands.

By that I mean another inescapeable nasty will have to rear its head. Could be CDO's or something like that. If sub prime is the 900 pound gorilla, then CDO's are the 900 ton gorilla...

Headin for la-la land myself. Careful trading to all tonite.
FUBAR...
  • #9,172
  • May 13, 2008 4:51am May 13, 2008 4:51am
Quoting scyang
Most strange thing the green news from UK sent USD down and euro and gbp down. Makes no sense.
Might want to have a look at this...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/bu...in&oref=slogin
FUBAR...
  • #9,173
  • May 13, 2008 5:00am May 13, 2008 5:00am
Quoting ak4x
Might want to have a look at this...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/bu...in&oref=slogin
That makes sense, but this article came out last Wednesday, after which euro climbed three days straight. But now USD is gaining across the board, even including jpy, after BOJ hinted that they might increase interest rate to fend off inflation.
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,174
  • May 13, 2008 5:07am May 13, 2008 5:07am
Quoting scyang
It was the most amazing thing with MBIA yesterday. It was so horrible yet the shares went way up, only for a few shorts moments in the beginning were they down. There is no logic. No idea what the retail sales number will do to fiber today. Most strange thing the green news from UK sent USD down and euro and gbp down. Makes no sense.
Most of the time there is very little logic in the way fundamentals move markets on a daily basis. Use fundamental news to paint the long term picture. However DJ and SP are very good indicators for how USD might perform in the near future especially against E/U. Technically speaking, because of the DJ rally yesterday, we are back into the rising wedge consolidative pattern (since March) and I expect rally to extend to at least 13140 again. Eventually stocks will come crashing down once consolidation is over, especially when everyone realises that Consumers who are the primary drivers of the US economy are still sick. That would be the time I expect USD weakness to resume. BTW watch the USD index too for good measure. Finally if the market does not make sense then it is better to stand aside until it does.
  • #9,175
  • May 13, 2008 5:13am May 13, 2008 5:13am
Quoting shajib
Finally if the market does not make sense then it is better to stand aside until it does.
Ditto that bro!

Think it was Keynes that said "The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent..."
FUBAR...
  • #9,176
  • May 13, 2008 5:19am May 13, 2008 5:19am
Quoting scyang
That makes sense, but this article came out last Wednesday, after which euro climbed three days straight. But now USD is gaining across the board, even including jpy, after BOJ hinted that they might increase interest rate to fend off inflation.
Correct, but I'm understanding that article to be hinting at a shift in intentions by those who can make them them stick. Of course things will still go back and forth as always.

But when something makes no apparent sense, I try to look for things that make sense that are not as apparent...

We're surrounded by signs and signals everywhere, it's noticing them and then interpreting them correctly that's the challenge.
FUBAR...
  • #9,177
  • May 13, 2008 5:23am May 13, 2008 5:23am
During each leg of this upturn, price has come back to .0618 level before taking off higher. From the swing low of 1.5280 up to 1.5570 down to the present price.
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  • #9,178
  • May 13, 2008 5:38am May 13, 2008 5:38am
look at the tf 15m,it looking to north....Any idea?
  • #9,179
  • May 13, 2008 5:48am May 13, 2008 5:48am
Hello
  • #9,180
  • May 13, 2008 7:49am May 13, 2008 7:49am
Quoting scyang
When did Jacko say that? Does he have a timeframe? Of course, it might be there at the end of the year, but we are mostly intraday traders.
I just saw this....

Is by the end of this week good enough???


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