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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #6,361
  • Edited 6:05pm May 11, 2008 6:03pm | Edited 6:05pm
Happy Mother's Day..

USD/JPY trades at 102.86 Bid nearing 7:00 PM EST...Not looking particularly strong on the upside. Range has been 102.83 to 103.145

Europe could give some direction. Gold, Oil and the Dow. Watch it all. Have a Great FX trading week. Please visit WWW.JSMINESET.COM to get updated on the fundamentals. Another good FREE Website is WWW.FINANCIALSENSE.COM Link: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0509.html

PLEASE READ IT FOR YOUR ENLIGHTMENT.

Good Evening


Bruce
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  • #6,362
  • Edited 6:20pm May 11, 2008 6:19pm | Edited 6:20pm
MBIA Announces Monday, May 12, 2008 before the OPEN...

The numbers will be a disaster...
MBIA’s financial results press release will be issued and posted on the Company's Web site, www.mbia.com, in conjunction with the filing of the Company's 10Q before the market opens on Monday, May 12.

Bruce
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  • #6,363
  • May 11, 2008 6:28pm May 11, 2008 6:28pm
102.60 is the next downside target than 102.30
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,364
  • May 11, 2008 6:41pm May 11, 2008 6:41pm
Quoting Warren Forex
MBIA Announces Monday, May 12, 2008 before the OPEN...

The numbers will be a disaster...
MBIA’s financial results press release will be issued and posted on the Company's Web site, www.mbia.com, in conjunction with the filing of the Company's 10Q before the market opens on Monday, May 12.

Bruce
The article anticipates the disaster?
  • #6,365
  • May 11, 2008 7:13pm May 11, 2008 7:13pm
[USD/YEN], has succumbed to more credit related jitters that are causing some further asset-reallocation, from stocks to bonds after the AIG and Citi news. Traders, have hence pushed the unit back down to the 103.00 zone, after 'support' at 103.20 caved in rather too easily. Hence, with U.S/European FX names perhaps anticipating more risk aversion when Japan returns proper from its Golden Week holiday, the market is willing to lean further on the short dollar side. The next level following the trendline break (circa 104.00-10), is light interim support at Fri's 102.60 low then all the way down to circa 101.90, hence the attraction.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #6,366
  • May 11, 2008 7:15pm May 11, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting cesarnc
The article anticipates the disaster?

The markets have been LIED to that the WORST is OVER...

Bad Numbers for MBIA which is more likely than not will not bring confidence to the market. My MAIN point is that if you were not even aware of the Monday News how can you possibly trade FX properly.

Here is something about technical analysis on it's own.

My GOAL is to HELP you be a better trader. It is your choice to listen to me.

PLEASE READ THIS...


In order to trade Fundamentals successfully you have to get the right mindset about them. The bottom line is that since the gold standard was done away with the currencies began to float based on supply and demand, fundamentals have driven the market and the market determines what currencies are worth. The people with the most buying and selling power determine the values of currencies. That is why only trading the technical indicators is so dangerous because you tend to forget that there are people on the other side of the price movements. The charts don't have anything to do with it.When the people change their expectations about the value of a certain currency the price of that currency is affected. They change their expectations about the value of a certain currency the price of that currency is affected. They change their expectations because of fundamentals and not because of price charts. What do people think is going to happen to an economy in the future? This is the question to ask your self when trading this market.
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  • #6,367
  • May 11, 2008 7:22pm May 11, 2008 7:22pm
23:41 USD/JPY: Soggy Early, Technically Weak Along With Crosses Tokyo, May 12. JPY cross weakness led USD/JPY lower last week, and it seems a continuation of cross-led USD/JPY weakness may be seen this week. Technicals are much more bearish with USD/JPY breaking decisively below its Ichimoku tenkan line last Thursday and is now trading at its kijun line. The tenkan line comes in at 104.15 today and the kijun line at 102.86. While he kijun line is likely to act as pivot, whether it will remain a support is questionable. Both lines look to turn down as well, and this suggests lower chart levels going forward, never a good indicator when the market is turning down. A test of the Ichimoku cloud top at 102.18 looks to be imminent. The base of the cloud comes in at 100.36 today.
Expectations of waning growth abroad looks and resulting cross weakness looks to be a major factor behind recent JPY gains, especially on the crosses. To wit, inflation abroad will remain high but expectations are for inflation to rise in Japan as well, effectively leaving interest rate differentials either intact but, possibly, narrower should interest rates overseas ease off on growth concerns. Whatever the case, the market looks to be in a state of flux with many long and medium-term players choosing to pare down positions given current uncertainty. Japanese bidding interest is likely to be seen going forward on dips but may not be as aggressive as originally thought as many players re- assess strategies for the fiscal year just started. USD/JPY currently trades 102.74/77, down from levels just above 103.00 in early Sydney-Wellington trading. [email protected]
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  • #6,368
  • May 11, 2008 7:39pm May 11, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting Warren Forex
The markets have been LIED to that the WORST is OVER...
You've got that right. And the markets so desperatly wanted to believe it.

Quoting Warren Forex
In order to trade Fundamentals successfully you have to get the right mindset about them. The bottom line is that since the gold standard was done away with the currencies began to float based on supply and demand, fundamentals have driven the market and the market determines what currencies are worth. The people with the most buying and selling power determine the values of currencies. That is why only trading the technical indicators is so dangerous because you tend to forget that there are people on the other side of the price movements. The charts don't have anything to do with it.When the people change their expectations about the value of a certain currency the price of that currency is affected. They change their expectations about the value of a certain currency the price of that currency is affected. They change their expectations because of fundamentals and not because of price charts. What do people think is going to happen to an economy in the future? This is the question to ask your self when trading this market.
Good point. And when you understand the fundies..you can percieve a change in trend long before it shows up on the chart.
  • #6,369
  • May 11, 2008 8:50pm May 11, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting DutchTrader
102.60 is the next downside target than 102.30
I hope your're right .....
  • #6,370
  • May 11, 2008 10:09pm May 11, 2008 10:09pm
US Dollar Index Strengthened because of BS about WSJ article on INTERVENTION to keep US Dollar Strong.

We shall see but I do not think we will go higher than 103.50 however you never know. Europe pre open could test 103.60 and if it fails we could see 103.00 again. Europe open and Dow open and MBIA will give clues. EUR/JPY pair is bringing USD/JPY with it as EUR/USD gets weaker.

Fun and Games and low volumes make for moves back and forth.

Stay Tuned...


Bruce
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  • #6,371
  • Edited 10:17pm May 11, 2008 10:15pm | Edited 10:17pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...ambrose112.xml

Me Too...


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...-mostviewedbox
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  • #6,372
  • May 11, 2008 10:51pm May 11, 2008 10:51pm
UJ were testin highs... if it success, TP at least 104.12... whether got throwback or not,i dunno
Swinger Club
  • #6,373
  • May 11, 2008 11:12pm May 11, 2008 11:12pm
http://www.actionforex.com/technical...2008050945482/
  • #6,374
  • Edited May 12, 2008 12:15am May 11, 2008 11:56pm | Edited May 12, 2008 12:15am
...
Que
  • #6,375
  • May 12, 2008 2:49am May 12, 2008 2:49am
The EUR/JPY had a run from 158.60 to 159.74 as JPY was sold and EUR purchased causing USD/JPY to touch 103.806 on my FXCM platform. There was about a 50 basis point run up on US Dollar Index since the last 8 hours on no NEW news.

Nothing has changed fundamentally however the markets are hard at work even against the technicals as they were all pointing for a USD/JPY test of 102.00 and here we are at 103.65 because of a NEW short term perception that BOJ might cut rates and US Government wants a strong dollar.

This is what makes Forex fascinating. If you do not understand the fundamentals then you have balmost no chance to continually win in FX.

The HIGH could well be 103.81 however we shall see as the day goes on.


Bruce
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  • #6,376
  • May 12, 2008 2:58am May 12, 2008 2:58am
Quoting Warren Forex
The EUR/JPY had a run from 158.60 to 159.74 as JPY was sold and EUR purchased causing USD/JPY to touch 103.806 on my FXCM platform. There was about a 50 basis point run up on US Dollar Index since the last 8 hours on no NEW news.

Nothing has changed fundamentally however the markets are hard at work even against the technicals as they were all pointing for a USD/JPY test of 102.00 and here we are at 103.65 because of a NEW short term perception that BOJ might cut rates and US Government wants a strong dollar.

This is what makes Forex fascinating. If you do not understand the fundamentals then you have balmost no chance to continually win in FX.

The HIGH could well be 103.81 however we shall see as the day goes on.


Bruce
So maybe it's better leaving this pair alone until it decides what it wants to do.
Expected the unexpected
  • #6,377
  • May 12, 2008 3:14am May 12, 2008 3:14am
Quoting scyang
So maybe it's better leaving this pair alone until it decides what it wants to do.

We just got a new high at 103.825 so we shall see if it can break 104.00

I still think we can see a reversal with NEW news in the next 8 hours and how the Dow trades. If you are flat now a good short (Yen Stronger) could be coming up near 104.00 as it hits new short term high of 103.876 as stops get hit. Are we all having fun ?

HSBC numbers about to come out with BAD numbers for US market. Buy the Rumor and Sell the News ?

That release and MBIA might bring things back to reality from the present perception which has come about in the last 8 hours with NO NEW NEWS out BUT plenty of NOISE from BOJ and FED.

Bruce
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  • #6,378
  • May 12, 2008 3:42am May 12, 2008 3:42am
4cast calls for resistance at 103.96 and 104.00 to 104.10

Reversal could come if it does not penetrate these numbers. HSBC information is out. The news is bad as it says US will go into recession with housing recovery only in 2009. The CAC and DAX are up. The Dow Futures are UP by 40 or so. The News is BAD from HSBC and Gold is down as the US Dollar Index is UP. EUR/JPY is now over 160.00 and it is not bringing USD/JPY up anymore.

Now Euro PPI is UP at Highest since 1986 and EUR/USD is getting stronger as it is up from the low of 1.5356 at 1.5429 so here we go.

Everything is GREAT. Inflation in the UK and Europe and No Rate Cuts but with Recession in the US will the FED still cut ?

Is everyone clear on what is happening ?

The Worst is YET to come in the USA and the Dow will crash and USD/JPY will go below 100.00

Stay the course and know the facts from the SPIN and FICTION.

I still LAUGH every time I hear Snow (OLD NEWS) and Paulson (NEW NEWS) saying the US has a STRONG DOLLAR POLICY as EUR/USD went over 160.00 and USD/JPY went to 95.00

Whatever they say, just accept the OPPOSITE as the REAL TRUTH.

This is a Game and in order to WIN the Game then you need to know the REAL RULES of the Game.

Part of the rules is that this is also a real business where corporations and countries buy their inventory which is currencies. That sets the true current value of the currency.

Time for a little break now...

Bruce
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  • #6,379
  • Edited 3:52am May 12, 2008 3:48am | Edited 3:52am
http://www.actionforex.com/latest-ne...2008050945509/

Snippet:

Monday: The U.S. federal government will release its monthly budget statement for April. Economists expect that the government spent $160 billion in the month, compared to $177. 7 billion spent in March.
In Canada, markets will receive important housing data with the release of March's housing price index. The consensus calls for an increase of 0.2%
8:20 CA Flaherty to Address the Economic Club of Toronto
8:30 CA New Housing Price Index (Monthly) March Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.3%
9:15 US Fed's Evans Speaks About U.S. Economic Outlook in Illinois
13:00 US Treasury to Sell S24B 3-Month Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $23B 6-Month Bills
14:00 US Monthly Budget Statement April Exp: $160.0B Prior: $177.7B
19:15 US Fed's Lockhart to Speak at Financial Markets Conference
Tuesday: It's a busy day for markets with the release of April's U.S. retail sales. The core sales, excluding autos, are expected to rise 0.2% following March's rise of 0.1%. The headline index is forecasted to fall 0.2% following last month's rise of 0.2%.
Markets will be able to see how well U.S. consumers are holding up with the release of IBD/TIPP economic optimism. The data is forecasted to come in at a reading of 38 for May, down April's level of 39.2.

Enjoy Folks. Do Your Homework. Make Your Profits. Visit WWW.JSMINESET.COM and USE Technicals in conjunction with the fundamentals for good entry and exit points. Have a good trade plan.

Bruce
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  • #6,380
  • Edited 4:00am May 12, 2008 3:59am | Edited 4:00am
In The Last Few Minutes USD/JPY tested 103.96 and HIT 103.957 on my FXCM platform. It is now back to 103.85 Bid....

I think the HIGH is IN but NEVER sure at this time of day. Dow Futures still UP 40 so MBIA data before US Market open could be VERY BIG if it is really really bad.

At 5:00 AM EST, there is 4 hours and 30 minutes to go before NY open. Oil is still holding above $125 as Gold is down $5 or so.

Good Day All

Bruce
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