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  • #9,021
  • May 9, 2008 10:50am May 9, 2008 10:50am
I still believe it will go down
not sure where put short@ SL?
What the point we can say it long
1.5470??
  • #9,022
  • May 9, 2008 10:51am May 9, 2008 10:51am
Quoting FxApasionado
I totally agree...
Would like to know what you see in the chart that makes you feel sure that the pair is still headed down? It seems to have found support and climbing now.
Expected the unexpected
  • #9,023
  • May 9, 2008 10:52am May 9, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Ducati
Hi all. I don't post a lot but wanted to put this up as I have been seeing something with this pair. I believe that the $ rally is over for the time being. The U/J broke below a major trend channel over yesterday is continuing downward. The E/U, as shown on the chart, popped below the .382 fib retraction level and then came up above yesterday and has basing there, creating a nice bull flag/pennant. The MACD is showing a very nice bullish divergence as price is right at the .382 level also which make me believe we will make a run at and break through the upper TL channel. Next week could see a lot more upside. Happy trading.
EJ seems to have a free way to fall another 600 pips, Cable is collapsing towards 93 and if it breaks there it's all the more down - same as EU, and UJ can freely range a bit for the next couple of weeks (even if it did break the channel) more or less compensated by drops of EJ and EU at the same time. Of course, it's all specualtion, but if you wanna try to make sense by comparing pair charts this seems to me to make more sense for now.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #9,024
  • May 9, 2008 10:56am May 9, 2008 10:56am
my long eu hit sl....40pips.....
done for today...
  • #9,025
  • May 9, 2008 11:01am May 9, 2008 11:01am
Looks like people are equally divided on both the sides. I am bias toward short.
  • #9,026
  • May 9, 2008 11:04am May 9, 2008 11:04am
Quoting scyang
Would like to know what you see in the chart that makes you feel sure that the pair is still headed down? It seems to have found support and climbing now.

Actually I closed my short position, it bounced off at the 200ema on the 15 min chart,, meaning,, it is bullish now...

let the bulls surprise you!!!

Bullish at least for me.. time will tell if i'm right
  • #9,027
  • May 9, 2008 11:09am May 9, 2008 11:09am
[ but if you wanna try to make sense by comparing pair charts this seems to me to make more sense for now.[/quote]

Well the E/J is also consolidating a further drop could cap the E/U move. But with oil now being projected too clip $130, I think the E/U will come back ito correlation with the oil trade and could be the driver next week. Also Cable is right now trying to pop back up above 1.95 where is was supported for the last few days. This is all setting up for E/U upside.
  • #9,028
  • May 9, 2008 11:16am May 9, 2008 11:16am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Guys, beware about shorts!
The Monster is still alive!
1.56 is the next stop.
Agreed, and I do believe we'll see higher than that. A solid close today will give us a bullish weekly bar and that should bring more buyers into the market. Don't forget also that this move down was just a correction. 1.53 was the support we were looking for to place buy orders on the higher timeframes and it came about prefectly. Now I plan on holding until 1.6 again in order to see if we will break that resistance area. Collecting all the way up.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #9,029
  • May 9, 2008 11:17am May 9, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Ducati
[ but if you wanna try to make sense by comparing pair charts this seems to me to make more sense for now.
Well the E/J is also consolidating a further drop could cap the E/U move. But with oil now being projected too clip $130, I think the E/U will come back ito correlation with the oil trade and could be the driver next week. Also Cable is right now trying to pop back up above 1.95 where is was supported for the last few days. This is all setting up for E/U upside.[/quote]

I dream, therefore I become.
  • #9,030
  • May 9, 2008 11:38am May 9, 2008 11:38am
Quoting Ducati
But with oil now being projected too clip $130, I think the E/U will come back ito correlation with the oil trade and could be the driver next week.
I have no idea about oil projections, but just looking at the daily chart of oil with these 3 peaks more or less aligned and with the last very bullish move looks like it's gonna retrace now rather than reach higher, plus for the last week oil rose a lot and EU still kept making lower lows..
On the path to Enrichment.
  • #9,031
  • May 9, 2008 11:44am May 9, 2008 11:44am
Today I start to trade late.

Trades you see in image:
1º - Closed my long 1.5339 TP 1.5465
2º - Opened short at 1.5458
3º - Closed Short at 1.5457 "Tried a fast pips before news, but didn't work,so BE trade.
4º - Opened short some minutes before news at 1.5463. "This is very danger, I bet for good news for USD, but only to send price to 1.5430.
5º - Closed Short at 1.5444
6º - Opened long at 1.5449. " after price reach 1.5433 in the last 15 min. candle I bet for a quick recover to 1.5460, did not recover fast, but because I am favouring longs I set my SL to 1.5420.
7º - Another long at 1.5426. I set my SL at 1.5420. As you can see price stopped right there!
8º - Closed Long 1.5449 at 1.5455. "One trade is enough"

My H1 Chart is giving me one more up leg move.
I have now only one trade long @1.5426 TP 1.5530.

Strategy for next days until 1.5530:
Favour Longs!

Have a nice weekend guys.:timeout:
Attached Image
  • #9,032
  • May 9, 2008 12:01pm May 9, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting Jurrasic
I have no idea about oil projections, but just looking at the daily chart of oil with these 3 peaks more or less aligned and with the last very bullish move looks like it's gonna retrace now rather than reach higher, plus for the last week oil rose a lot and EU still kept making lower lows..
agree but i put [email protected] ,IF BREAK then Bullish
  • #9,033
  • May 9, 2008 12:20pm May 9, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting Jurrasic
I have no idea about oil projections, but just looking at the daily chart of oil with these 3 peaks more or less aligned and with the last very bullish move looks like it's gonna retrace now rather than reach higher, plus for the last week oil rose a lot and EU still kept making lower lows..
The big boys are calling for $150 - $200 for oil.
The E$ and oil have decoupled so oil and the E$ will follow their own path.

While in the recent past oil and E$ followed very close, I think it was the impact on the US that drove the E$ to follow oil.

Now that Europe as well as the rest of the world is getting hit with the impact , possibly due to lower usage and longer time to get oil products to public.

All I can tell you is that anything that is remotely associated with oil, which is almost everything (Transportation, food, gas, plastic etc.) will go up in price.

Will the E$ follow?? Film at 11.
  • #9,034
  • May 9, 2008 12:29pm May 9, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting Jurrasic
plus for the last week oil rose a lot and EU still kept making lower lows..

This won't last for long. One of these two will come back inline with each other. The Euro began it's drop on speculation that the ECB would eventually have to lower rates which saw it's drop from 1.60. But last weeks comments have started to change the bias of this pair. The oil traders saw through correction though and continue to bid oil up. The ECB being handcuffed by our fed right now has to keep a close eye on inflation due to oil. Oil may make a short term correction, but until our fed makes a move, and in my opinion it doesn't even have to be a rate hike, just a change in language, then i think E/U is going to start rallying higher.
IMHO.
Have a good weekend.
  • #9,035
  • May 9, 2008 12:38pm May 9, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Subdude
How tight is your trail, anyway? I see a possible temporary correction to 1.5425, from which point it could go back up to 1.5550 which looks like it's where the two week upper trendline lies.
Wow, I was spot on here. Too bad I didn't short on my own advice.
  • #9,036
  • May 10, 2008 10:55am May 10, 2008 10:55am
Quoting jacko
I have just started reading this thread.

A good modification is that:
1. the best thing to do is to follow the rules.
2. rules exist to be broken BUT
3 rules shall not be broken WHILE you are in the trade

.
Jacko,

As it happens, I've just been reading Curtis Faith's "Way of the Turtle" this afternoon and, amongst a lot of other interesting stuff, he writes;

"Many of them (the Turtles) did not make money. This was the case not because the rules did not work; it happened because they could not and did not follow the rules".

Rob
  • #9,037
  • May 10, 2008 2:13pm May 10, 2008 2:13pm
is there a site that lets you see price over the weekend? I left a trade open. I was long from 5440 and at close i was up 40 pips. Usually i try not to scalp on fridays but my charts said up. I moved my sl to even. So my question is if we have a gap and it goes down past my sl does that mean im losing more than my sl?
  • #9,038
  • May 10, 2008 2:26pm May 10, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting slappy
is there a site that lets you see price over the weekend? I left a trade open. I was long from 5440 and at close i was up 40 pips. Usually i try not to scalp on fridays but my charts said up. I moved my sl to even. So my question is if we have a gap and it goes down past my sl does that mean im losing more than my sl?
Oanda, you can open a demo account and see pricing.
Depends on your broker's rules.
  • #9,039
  • Edited 2:47pm May 10, 2008 2:42pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting slappy
is there a site that lets you see price over the weekend? I left a trade open. I was long from 5440 and at close i was up 40 pips. Usually i try not to scalp on fridays but my charts said up. I moved my sl to even. So my question is if we have a gap and it goes down past my sl does that mean im losing more than my sl?

No if there is a gap against you ,U should get closed out a your SL but FX G is right it depends on your broker

I wouldn't recommend leaving short term trades over the weekend

If E/U continues in the channel on the 4h time frame it should be back down from 1.5500 to 1.5200
But Im looking for it to continue an uptrend
We should be able to tell pretty quick when she reopens

This is my first post here and I just want to thank all of you for your comments Ive enjoyed the read. A BIG TEXAS HELLO

MICJON
  • #9,040
  • May 10, 2008 3:00pm May 10, 2008 3:00pm
thankyou! Ya that helps....so instead of being up 40 pips im down 7....oh well lesson learned!
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